Ideal bootstrap estimation of expected prediction error for k-nearest neighbor classifiers: Applications for classification and error assessment

Euclidean distance k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifiers are simple nonparametric classification rules. Bootstrap methods, widely used for estimating the expected prediction error of classification rules, are motivated by the objective of calculating the ideal bootstrap estimate of expected prediction error. In practice, bootstrap methods use Monte Carlo resampling to estimate the ideal bootstrap estimate because exact calculation is generally intractable. In this article, we present analytical formulae for exact calculation of the ideal bootstrap estimate of expected prediction error for k-NN classifiers and propose a new weighted k-NN classifier based on resampling ideas. The resampling-weighted k-NN classifier replaces the k-NN posterior probability estimates by their expectations under resampling and predicts an unclassified covariate as belonging to the group with the largest resampling expectation. A simulation study and an application involving remotely sensed data show that the resampling-weighted k-NN classifier compares favorably to unweighted and distance-weighted k-NN classifiers.     

Improved reduced-bias tail index and quantile estimators

In this paper, we deal with bias reduction techniques for heavy tails, trying to improve mainly upon the performance of classical high quantile estimators. High quantiles depend strongly on the tail index γ$\gamma$, for which new classes of reduced-bias estimators have recently been introduced, where the second-order parameters in the bias are estimated at a level _k1$k_1$ of a larger order than the level k at which the tail index is estimated. Doing this, it was seen that the asymptotic variance of the new estimators could be kept equal to the one of the popular Hill estimators. In a similar way, we now introduce new classes of tail index and associated high quantile estimators, with an asymptotic mean squared error smaller than that of the classical ones for all k in a large class of heavy-tailed models. We derive their asymptotic distributional properties and compare them with those of alternative estimators. Next to that, an illustration of the finite sample behavior of the estimators is also provided through a Monte Carlo simulation study and the application to a set of real data in the field of insurance.     

A resampling approach to estimate variance components of multilevel models

In a multilevel model for complex survey data, the weight‐inflated estimators of variance components can be biased. We propose a resampling method to correct this bias. The performance of the bias corrected estimators is studied through simulations using populations generated from a simple random effects model. The simulations show that, without lowering the precision, the proposed procedure can reduce the bias of the estimators, especially for designs that are both informative and have small cluster sizes. Application of these resampling procedures to data from an artificial workplace survey provides further evidence for the empirical value of this method. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 150–171; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Reduced-Bias Location-Invariant Extreme Value Index Estimation: A Simulation Study

In this article, we deal with semi-parametric corrected-bias estimation of a positive extreme value index (EVI), the primary parameter in statistics of extremes. Under such a context, the classical EVI-estimators are the Hill estimators, based on any intermediate number k of top-order statistics. But these EVI-estimators are not location-invariant, contrarily to the PORT-Hill estimators, which depend on an extra tuning parameter q, with 0 ≤ q < 1, and where PORT stands for peaks over random threshold. On the basis of second-order minimum-variance reduced-bias (MVRB) EVI-estimators, we shall here consider PORT-MVRB EVI-estimators. Due to the stability on k of the MVRB EVI-estimates, we propose the use of a heuristic algorithm, for the adaptive choice of k and q, based on the bias pattern of the estimators as a function of k. Applications in the fields of insurance and finance will be provided.     

Adaptive procedure for generalized familywise error rate control

This article considers multiple hypotheses testing with the generalized familywise error rate k-FWER control, which is the probability of at least k false rejections. We first assume the p-values corresponding to the true null hypotheses are independent, and propose adaptive generalized Bonferroni procedure with k-FWER control based on the estimation of the number of true null hypotheses. Then, we assume the p-values are dependent, satisfying block dependence, and propose adaptive procedure with k-FWER control. Extensive simulations compare the performance of the adaptive procedures with different estimators.     

On Estimating The Quantile Function For Distributions Constrained by Star-Shaped Ordering

Consider distributions F and G such that G ^-1 F is star-shaped. In the problem of estimating the quantile functions for lifetime distributions, the estimators developed by Rojo (1998) are compared with the commonly used empirical quantile function. Both the one-sample and the two-sample methods of estimation are considered for a wide class of lifetime distributions. In addition, the behavior of the estimators is examined for star-shaped ordered lifetime distributions of the important class of coherent k- out-of-n reliability systems. Results of a Monte Carlo study are presented which compare the behavior of the new estimators with that of the empirical quantile function interms of bias and mean-squared error. As the behavior of these estimators typically depends on the tail behavior of the underlying distributions, the examples presented here include distributions with short, medium and long tails. A formula for the inverse of the Kaplan-Meier estimator is provided and used to generate the simulations in the case of censored data.     

A computational study of a quasi-PORT methodology for VaR based on second-order reduced-bias estimation

In this paper, we deal with the estimation, under a semi-parametric framework, of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) at a level p, the size of the loss occurred with a small probability p. Under such a context, the classical VaR estimators are the Weissman–Hill estimators, based on any intermediate number k of top-order statistics. But these VaR estimators do not enjoy the adequate linear property of quantiles, contrarily to the PORT VaR estimators, which depend on an extra tuning parameter q, with 0≤q<1. We shall here consider ‘quasi-PORT’ reduced-bias VaR estimators, for which such a linear property is obtained approximately. They are based on a partially shifted version of a minimum-variance reduced-bias (MVRB) estimator of the extreme value index (EVI), the primary parameter in Statistics of Extremes. Due to the stability on k of the MVRB EVI and associated VaR estimates, we propose the use of a heuristic stability criterion for the choice of k and q, providing applications of the methodology to simulated data and to log-returns of financial stocks.     

Three estimators for the poisson regression model with measurement errors

We consider two consistent estimators for the parameters of the linear predictor in the Poisson regression model, where the covariate is measured with errors. The measurement errors are assumed to be normally distributed with known error variance σ _u ² . The SQS estimator, based on a conditional mean-variance model, takes the distribution of the latent covariate into account, and this is here assumed to be a normal distribution. The CS estimator, based on a corrected score function, does not use the distribution of the latent covariate. Nevertheless, for small σ _u ² , both estimators have identical asymptotic covariance matrices up to the order of σ _u ² . We also compare the consistent estimators to the naive estimator, which is based on replacing the latent covariate with its (erroneously) measured counterpart. The naive estimator is biased, but has a smaller covariance matrix than the consistent estimators (at least up to the order of σ _u ² ).     

Bias reduction of a tail index estimator through an external estimation of the second-order parameter

In this paper, we first consider a class of consistent semi-parametric estimators of a positive tail index γ, parameterised in a tuning or control parameter α. Such a control parameter enables us to have access, for any available sample, to an estimator of the tail index γ with a null dominant component of asymptotic bias, and consequently with a reasonably flat mean squared error pattern, as a function of k, the number of top-order statistics considered. Such a control parameter depends on a second-order parameter ρ, which will be adequately estimated so that we may achieve a high efficiency relative to the classical Hill estimator, provided we use a number of top-order statistics larger than the one usually required for the estimation through the Hill estimator. An illustration of the behaviour of the estimators is provided, through the analysis of the daily log-returns on the Euro–US$ exchange rates.     

Tests of regression coefficients under ridge regression models

This paper investigates two “non-exact” t-type tests, t( k₂) and t(k₂), of the individual coefficients of a linear regression model, based on two ordinary ridge estimators. The reported results are built on a simulation study covering 84 different models. For models with large standard errors, the ridge-based t-tests have correct levels with considerable gain in powers over those of the least squares t-test, t(0). For models with small standard errors, t(k₁) is found to be liberal and is not safe to use while, t(k₂) is found to slightly exceed the nominal level in few cases. When tie two ridge tests art: not winners, the results indicate that they don't loose much against t(0).     

In Memoriam: Martin Taitel,Francis E. McLntyre

A discrete uniform distribution is defined over the integers 1, 2, …, k. Following Tenenbein, who investigated the point estimation of k for a sample drawn without replacement, this paper considers a number of point estimators of k for sampling with replacement and presents conservative confidence sets for k for both methods of sampling.     

Small-Sample Quantile Estimators in a Large Nonparametric Model

The large nonparametric model in this note is a statistical model with the family ? of all continuous and strictly increasing distribution functions. In the abundant literature of the subject, there are many proposals for nonparametric estimators that are applicable in the model. Typically the kth order statistic X _k:n is taken as a simplest estimator, with k = [nq], or k = [(n + 1)q], or k = [nq] + 1, etc. Often a linear combination of two consecutive order statistics is considered. In more sophisticated constructions, different L-statistics (e.g., Harrel–Davis, Kaigh–Lachenbruch, Bernstein, kernel estimators) are proposed. Asymptotically the estimators do not differ substantially, but if the sample size n is fixed, which is the case of our concern, differences may be serious. A unified treatment of quantile estimators in the large, nonparametric statistical model is developed.     

The simultaneous confidence intervals for all distances from the extreme populations for two-parameter exponential populations based on the multiply type II censored samples

Among k independent two-parameter exponential distributions which have the common scale parameter, the lower extreme population (LEP) is the one with the smallest location parameter and the upper extreme population (UEP) is the one with the largest location parameter. Given a multiply type II censored sample from each of these k independent two-parameter exponential distributions, 14 estimators for the unknown location parameters and the common unknown scale parameter are considered. Fourteen simultaneous confidence intervals (SCIs) for all distances from the extreme populations (UEP and LEP) and from the UEP from these k independent exponential distributions under the multiply type II censoring are proposed. The critical values are obtained by the Monte Carlo method. The optimal SCIs among 14 methods are identified based on the criteria of minimum confidence length for various censoring schemes. The subset selection procedures of extreme populations are also proposed and two numerical examples are given for illustration.     

Choice of Estimators Based on Different Observations: Modified AIC and LCV Criteria

Abstract. It is quite common in epidemiology that we wish to assess the quality of estimators on a particular set of information, whereas the estimators may use a larger set of information. Two examples are studied: the first occurs when we construct a model for an event which happens if a continuous variable is above a certain threshold. We can compare estimators based on the observation of only the event or on the whole continuous variable. The other example is that of predicting the survival based only on survival information or using in addition information on a disease. We develop modified Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Likelihood cross‐validation (LCV) criteria to compare estimators in this non‐standard situation. We show that a normalized difference of AIC has a bias equal to o ( n ^{? 1} ) if the estimators are based on well‐specified models; a normalized difference of LCV always has a bias equal to o ( n ^{? 1} ). A simulation study shows that both criteria work well, although the normalized difference of LCV tends to be better and is more robust. Moreover in the case of well‐specified models the difference of risks boils down to the difference of statistical risks which can be rather precisely estimated. For ‘compatible’ models the difference of risks is often the main term but there can also be a difference of mis‐specification risks.     

Copula representation of bivariate L-moments: a new estimation method for multiparameter two-dimensional copula models

Serfling and Xiao [A contribution to multivariate L-moments, L-comoment matrices. J Multivariate Anal. 2007;98:1765–1781] extended the L-moment theory to the multivariate setting. In the present paper, we focus on the two-dimensional random vectors to establish a link between the bivariate L-moments (BLM) and the underlying bivariate copula functions. This connection provides a new estimate of dependence parameters of bivariate statistical data. Extensive simulation study is carried out to compare estimators based on the BLM, the maximum likelihood, the minimum distance and a rank approximate Z-estimation. The obtained results show that, when the sample size increases, BLM-based estimation performs better as far as the bias and computation time are concerned. Moreover, the root-mean-squared error is quite reasonable and less sensitive in general to outliers than those of the above cited methods. Further, the proposed BLM method is an easy-to-use tool for the estimation of multiparameter copula models. A generalization of the BLM estimation method to the multivariate case is discussed.     

Testing symmetry based on empirical likelihood

In this paper, we propose a general kth correlation coefficient between the density function and distribution function of a continuous variable as a measure of symmetry and asymmetry. We first propose a root-n moment-based estimator of the kth correlation coefficient and present its asymptotic results. Next, we consider statistical inference of the kth correlation coefficient by using the empirical likelihood (EL) method. The EL statistic is shown to be asymptotically a standard chi-squared distribution. Last, we propose a residual-based estimator of the kth correlation coefficient for a parametric regression model to test whether the density function of the true model error is symmetric or not. We present the asymptotic results of the residual-based kth correlation coefficient estimator and also construct its EL-based confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed estimators, and we also use our proposed estimators to analyze the air quality dataset.     

Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Abstract

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53–78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L‐F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199–225] are extended to higher‐order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short‐ and long‐run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I–1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long‐run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross‐correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

Bias-corrected maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution

ABSTRACT

We derive analytic expressions for the biases, to O(n^?1), of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution. Using these expressions to bias-correct the estimators in a selective manner is found to be extremely effective in terms of bias reduction, and can also result in a small reduction in relative mean squared error (MSE). In terms of remaining relative bias, the analytic bias-corrected estimators are somewhat less effective than their counterparts obtained by using a parametric bootstrap bias correction. However, the analytic correction out-performs the bootstrap correction in terms of remaining %MSE. It also performs credibly relative to other recently proposed estimators for this distribution. Taking into account the relative computational costs, this leads us to recommend the selective use of the analytic bias adjustment for most practical situations.     

Bias evaluation in the proportional hazards model

We consider two approaches for bias evaluation and reduction in the proportional hazards model proposed by Cox. The first one is an analytical approach in which we derive the n^-1 bias term of the maximum partial likelihood estimator. The second approach consists of resampling methods, namely the jackknife and the bootstrap. We compare all methods through a comprehensive set of Monte Carlo simulations. The results suggest that bias-corrected estimators have better finite-sample performance than the standard maximum partial likelihood estimator. There is some evidence oithe bootstrap-correction superiority over the jackknife-correction but its performance is similar to the analytical estimator. Finaily an application iliustrates the proposed approaches.