Risk Aversion in Travel Mode Choice with Rank-Dependent Utility

Using 2004 stated preference data on travel mode collected in the Zürich area, different parametric specifications of the rank-dependent utility function in a logit mixture model show that commuters are weakly averse to small-time losses. The results also justify Yaari's dual theory of choice under risk, that the utility function is linear on outcomes but that the perception of corresponding probabilities is biased. For leisure travel, the travelers are risk neutral to small losses of time.     

A simple model for linking life tables by survival mortality ratios

Patterns of variation in mortality can be studied by measuring changes in selected life table functions. A model is proposed in which the rate of change over time in the life table survivorship probability at any age has been assumed as proportional to the product of its own value and its complementary probability or the probability of dying by that age, where the proportion is the same for all ages and depends only on the time duration between successive life tables. The end result is that the logit functions of the survivorship probabilities at two points in time are linearly related with a slope of one. The projecting power of the model has been tested by using U.S. life tables for the years 1950 and 1970 as well as Coale and Demeny's regional model life tables. In the latter case, the model produced surprisingly close matches even when the expectations of life differed by as much as 20 years.     

Kyne–Donner Model of Authority’s Recommendation and Hurricane Evacuation Decisions: A Study of Hypothetical Hurricane Event in the Rio Grande Valley,Texas

Many previous studies identified factors influencing hurricane evacuation decisions by testing the protective action decision model (PADM). This study further examines factors that affect the trust in authority’s recommendation and evacuation decision-making in a proposed Kyne–Donner Model. The model provides an understanding of the predictive factors influencing evacuation decision-making through the mediating factor of trust in authority’s recommendation. This study takes advantage of the structural equation modeling method to simultaneously test multi-stages of the model. There are factors, namely, age, gender, education, household size, decision maker, risk area, house materials, hurricane evacuation experience, information seeking frequency, information seeking behavior, and information sources which influence trust in authority’s recommendation which, together with hurricane evacuation impediments, influence the hurricane evacuation decision. The study’s findings are consistent with the PADM and demonstrate the importance of trust in authority’s recommendation and hurricane evacuation decision-making.     

Impulsivity as a Risk Factor for HIV Transmission in Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Delay Discounting Approach

Delay discounting (DD) is a measure of impulsivity that describes the subjective decline in value of a consequence as the delay to that consequence increases. We sought to assess whether the results of a monetary DD task would be predictive of sexual risk-taking in a group of Internet-using men who have sex with men (MSM). 1402 participants completed an online survey that included questions about the participant’s demographics, sexual history and behavior, drug use, sexual compulsivity, and a monetary DD task. High DD was associated with increased odds of reporting >2 UAI partners in the past 12 months [aOR = 1.5 (1.1–2.1)]. Future studies should examine the utility of DD as a predictor of risky sexual behavior, as well as explore the possibility of HIV prevention interventions targeting DD.     

Behavioral processes and egg-laying decisions of the bean weevil, Callosobruchus maculatus

Empirical studies of behavioral processes were designed in a seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, to distinguish between two alternative tactical models, namely, comparison tactics and threshold tactics of seed choice, and also to deduce the behavioral rule of its oviposition decisions. Search sequences and the oviposition process of the female bruchid beetle were observed and recorded. Analyzing data of the search sequence showed that the female bruchid beetle repeatedly encountered seeds randomly and tended to oviposit on a newly encountered seed in an ovposition bout. These results contradict the usual comparison models, which predict that the female will return to choose any one of the previously encountered seeds after sampling. In addition, the oviposition decision (rejection or acceptance of an encountered seed to oviposit) was analyzed with a generalized linear modeling (GLIM) technique. Modeling showed that the probability of accepting a seed with different numbers of eggs on it changed during her egg-laying process. This evidence supports the idea that the female is using a threshold tactic and that her acceptance threshold is being adjusted by experience gained during the egg-laying process. The analysis of statistical modeling also showed that both the time since the last oviposition and the number of eggs which had been laid by the female had a significant effect on the probability of accepting seeds with different numbers of eggs. Therefore, a time measuring system and the physiological state variable, e.g., eggload of the female, should be included in the behavioral rule to explore how the female makes her decision in the egg-laying process and to examine the importance of choice behavior as a component of selection and adaptation. Received: May 8, 1998 / Accepted: September 20, 1999     

Can We Weight Satisfaction Score with Importance Ranks Across Life Domains?

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of importance weighting when importance ranks were considered as the weighting values by (1) examining the range-of-affect hypothesis in the within-subject context and (2) comparing performances of weighted and unweighted satisfaction scores in predicting overall judgment of subjective well-being. Participants were 167 undergraduates at National Taiwan University. The mean age was 19.80 years (SD = 1.98). They were first asked to complete the measurements for global life satisfaction and overall QOL and then completed a QOL questionnaire for rating satisfaction, perceived have–want discrepancy on 12 life domains and ranking importance on these domains. Hierarchical linear modeling with a random-coefficients regression model was applied to examine the range-of-affect hypothesis in the within-subject context. Correlation analysis was applied to evaluate performances of weighted and unweighted satisfaction scores in predicting overall judgment of subjective well-being. Results of this study supported the range-of-affect hypothesis, showing that the relationship between item have–want discrepancy and item satisfaction is stronger for high importance items than low importance items for a given individual. Correlation analysis found that the four weighted satisfaction scores computed from the algorithms proposed by Hsieh (Social Indicators Research 61:227–240, 2003) were not superior to unweighted satisfaction score in predicting overall QOL and global life satisfaction. All these findings suggested that weighting satisfaction scores with importance ranks may not have theoretical basis and empirical contribution.     

Hidden information problems in the design of family allowances

We consider the optimal determination of family allowances in a model where some of the parents have higher ability to raise children than others. First-best policy gives both types of parents the same level of utility. If neither parental ability nor parental actions are fully observable, however, the policy maker has to take into account the incentive-compatibility constraint that more able parents should not find it profitable to mis-represent their true ability by investing less in their children, and having a lower number of children. The second-best policy induces more able parents to have the first-best number of children, and to invest in each child at the first-best level. Less able parents are induced to have fewer children than in first best, and will underinvest in each child. Whether the government should subsidize more the more able parents, or the less able ones, depends on the properties of the cost function. In second best, however, less able parents will end up with lower utility than more able parents whatever the cost function.All correspondence to Annalisa Luporini. The paper has benefitted from comments by three anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

家庭风险分担机制对农村医疗保险需求的影响——对四川省的初步调查报告

本文在观察四川农户健康风险应付行为的基础上 ,把家庭风险分担团体视为一个组织 ,与正式保险组织在制度、组织和管理三个方面作比较分析和定量的相关性分析。结果表明 ,家庭风险分担团体与正式保险组织有部分替代性和优越性 ,其功能与农户对正式健康保险的需求呈负相关     

Measuring Progress: A Comparison of the GDP,HDI, GS and the RIE

The current paper constructs a progress measurement appropriate for measuring multiple and different dimensions of progress. The paper is not meant to be a detailed discussion of the framework but rather a demonstrated application of the measure. The constructed resource-infrastructure-environment progress measure employs a non-monetary evaluation adopting a weighting technique based on public opinion. The proposed index is assessed from a single summary standpoint. The aggregation method is evaluated via a z-score standardisation technique. The progress index is applied to three countries that are representative of different clusters. They are Australia (mid-industrialised nation), Mexico (emerging economy), and the US (highly industrialised nation). These selected countries provide an opportunity to highlight any divergences that may exist in their perceived economic strength. The results showed Australia as consistently having the highest levels of progress, closely followed by Mexico and then the US.     

Age structure,growth, attrition and accession: A new synthesis

This paper shows that each equation describing relationships among demographic parameters in a stable population is a special case of a similar and equally simple equation that applies to any closed population and demonstrates some implications of these new equations for demographic theory and practice. Much of formal demography deals with functions that pertain to individuals passing through life, or to a stationary population in which births of individuals are evenly distributed over time. These functions include life expectancy, probabilities of survival, net and gross reproduction rates, expected years spent in various states and the probability that certain events will occur in the course of life. The stable population model permits the translation of population structure or processes in a more general type of population, with constant growth rates, back into equivalent populations for a stationary population. The method for translation developed in this paper, requiring only a set of age-specific growth rates is even more general, applying to any population. Age specific growth rates may also be useful for performing reverse translations, between a population's life table and its birth rate or its age distribution. Tables of numbers of females by single years of age in Sweden are used to illustrate applications. Tables summarize the basic relations among certain functions in a stationary population, a stable population and any population. Applications of new equations, particularly to demographic estimation of mortality, fertility and migration, from incomplete data, are described. Some other applications include; the 2 sex problem, increment decrement tables, convergence of population to its stable form, and cyclical changes in vital rates. Stable population models will continue to demonstrate long term implications of changes in mortality and fertility. However, in demographic estimation and measurement, new procedures will support most of those based on stable assumptions.     

Social Responsibility,Substance Use,and Sexual Risk Behavior in Men Who Have Sex With Men

Considerable public health literature focuses on relationships between problematic human characteristics (e.g., psychopathology) and unhealthy behaviors. A recent movement termed positive psychology emphasizes the advantages of assessing relationships between human strengths (e.g., altruism) and beneficial health behaviors. The present study assessed social responsibility, an orientation to help or protect others even when there is nothing to be gained as an individual, and its relationship to HIV-relevant behaviors. In our sample of 350 men who have sex with men (MSM), social responsibility was negatively correlated with substance use and HIV risk behaviors. Men who had been tested for HIV and knew their HIV status—a behavior that helps men protect their partners but does not protect themselves from the virus—also scored higher in social responsibility. Interventions designed to reduce HIV risk behavior in MSM may benefit from efforts to promote human strengths.     

Estimating the Effect of Perceived Risk of Crime on Social Trust in the Presence of Endogeneity Bias

This study aims to estimate the effect of perceived risk of crime on the social trust probability for Italian men and women, accounting for both observed and unobserved confounding. We use microdata collected by the Italian National Statistical Office for the year 2010 during a multi-scope survey of Italian households. The relationship under investigation is estimated after controlling for observed confounding by using a propensity score weighting approach. To control for both observed and unobserved confounding (better known as endogeneity), a semiparametric recursive bivariate probit approach is ultimately employed instead. Our findings show that the perceived risk of crime has a significant negative effect on the social trust probability regardless of gender and that endogeneity seems to be present for both genders. The paper represents the first such application in which the effect of interest is estimated accounting for the presence of endogeneity.     

Subjective Well-Being, Income and Relative Concerns in the UK

We present an empirical model aimed at testing the relative income hypothesis and the effect of deprivation relative to mean income on subjective well-being. The main concern is to deal with subjective panel data in an ordered response model where error homoskedasticity is not assumed. A heteroskedastic pooled panel ordered probit model with unobserved individual-specific effects is applied to micro-data available in the British Household Panel Survey for 1996–2007. In this framework, absolute income impacts negatively on both completely satisfied and dissatisfied individuals, while relative income affects positively the most satisfied ones. Such an effect is asymmetric, impacting more severely on the relatively poor in the reference group. We argue that our results buttress the validity of the relative income hypothesis as an explanation of the happiness paradox.     

Migration, health, and environment in the desert southwest

The “immigrant health paradox” has captured the attention of researchers struggling to understand why immigrants to the United States appear to have health advantages that would not be predicted by their socioeconomic position. This research extends prior analyses through examination of the potential role of environmental factors in explaining the immigrant health paradox. We use data from the Phoenix Area Social Survey, a survey conducted in 2006 of approximately 800 individuals. Multilevel ordered logistic models examine three health outcomes: self-rated health, heat stress, and asthmatic symptoms. An innovation is our multiple considerations of contextual factors, including neighborhood amenities, disorder, traffic counts, and the heat index. We have three key findings: (1) frequent local migration has negative impacts on health, (2) the local neighborhood environment partially mediates differences between US-born non-Hispanic Whites and foreign-born Hispanics, and (3) subjective measures of the local environment tend to have greater effects than objective measures. In sum, our analyses suggested a need for studies of place and health to consider migration and residential history as a factor shaping health outcomes. Further, regarding the immigrant paradox, the results suggest the need to move beyond a dichotomous measure of immigration contrasting international migrants with native-born residents.     

The pattern of birth spacing during Taiwan's demographic transition

This paper considers the impact of an extended family structure on the fertility behavior of married women in Taiwan. A sequential duration model is applied to identify the differences in fertility behavior during the early and latter stages of a woman's reproductive period. Heterogeneity adjustments which correct the respondent-specific characteristics are also implemented. It is found that living with the husband's parents has an impact on the wife's fertility only at the early stage of her childbearing period, and that the subjective son preferences together with the objective fact of no son in the previous 2 births do force a wife to expedite her third birth. These results are robust across different cohorts during the demographic transition and under different specifications of hazard functions. We thank an anonymous referee for his or her valuable comments and suggestions. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Does Weighting Capture What’s Important? Revisiting Subjective Importance Weighting with a Quality of Life Measure

The present study evaluated subjective importance weighting using data collected with the Injection Drug User Quality of Life Scale (IDUQOL). Weighted and unweighted IDUQOL scores from 241 adults were correlated with convergent, discriminant, and criterion measures. Regression analysis was used to examine the contribution of importance ratings to scores on a global measure of life satisfaction and the corrected weighted IDUQOL total scores. Overall, the results showed that weighted scores did not perform better than unweighted scores in measuring quality of life. However, the mean satisfaction ratings for important domains correlated significantly higher with convergent measures than did the mean satisfaction ratings for unimportant domains. This finding suggests further attention needs to be paid to the meaning and measurement of subjective importance and how it may be incorporated more effectively into measures of quality of life.     

Factors affecting the coming out process for lesbians

Cass' model (1979) of identity development and her Stage Allocation Measure (1984a) were assessed to determine their utility in describing the subjective experience of coming out as a lesbian and whether proposed stages could be tied to behavioral correlates of the Openness Questionnaire (Graham, Rawlings, & Girten, 1985). The process was considered in terms of a woman's differentiation from her family, sex-role attitudes, and levels of internalized homophobia. Eighty-one lesbians anonymously completed questionnaires. The results suggest that subjective labeling and behavior are congruent, but that rate of progression through stages does not imply integration of behavior. Four patterns of identity development were identified which suggest that relevant stages, speed of development, and stage attainment are characteristic of certain women. Intergenerational intimidation was significantly related to stage development, sex-role attitudes, openness behavior, and levels of internalized homophobia.     

Pregnancy avoidance and coital behavior

This study proposes a behavioral model that identifies determinants of coital activity in the context of pregnancy avoidance and assesses the relationships using weekly panel data collected on 300 rural married women in Sri Lanka in 1988. We discuss the utility of the design, which is similar to that of an epidemiological surveillance system, for the measurement of coital behavior and pregnancy risk perceptions. Perceptions of pregnancy risk, spousal agreement on sexual relations, menstrual and lactational status, and cycle timing, all measured daily, are found to influence significantly the probability of coitus on that day. The findings suggest that substantial gains in studying fertility regulation are likely from closer investigation of the behavioral connections between motivation for pregnancy avoidance and coital incidence. Comparison of such panel data with those of cross-sectional sample surveys also provides insights into the validity of measures of coital and contraceptive behavior.     

On the Predictive Effect of Multidimensional Importance-Weighted Quality of Life Scores on Overall Subjective Well-Being

This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of importance weighting in predicting outcome variables in a hierarchical and multidimensional measurement context. A total of 146 undergraduate students (female = 76; mean age = 20.25) from two universities in Taiwan and China participated in this study. They evaluated their quality of life on 22 facets from the WHOQOL-BREF scale, which covers four domains (i.e., physical health, psychological health, social relationships, and environmental health). They were also asked to rate the importance of these 22 facets and items for three general subjective well-being indices, including overall quality of life, general health, and life satisfaction. A multiplicative formula was used to create importance-weighted scores for each facet, and four domain scores were obtained by averaging facet scores under specific domains. Results of regression analysis revealed that after applying the weighting procedure, the four domain scores did not account for more variances in the three indices for overall subjective well-being, and predictive effects of the four domain scores became less differential. Our findings suggest that importance weighting did not have its expected benefits but instead may negatively impact the predictive effects.     

人力资本的风险研究

人力资本的风险,包括经济性风险和非经济性风险。人力资本在形成、交易、使用和退出的全过程中,都面临着不同程度和不同形式的风险。在实践中应给予人力资本所有者充分的风险报酬,以激励人力资本所有者努力工作,以此为中介,降低企业的风险。