可及性视角下医疗组织分布特征及其对疫情防控的影响研究

基于可及性理论,从医疗服务资源的可获得性和可达性两个角度量化各地级市疫情防控定点医疗组织机构的空间分布特征以及空间组合模式,并探讨其对疫情防控效果的影响。研究结果显示,在控制了城市基本特征、人员流动程度、基础医疗资源状况和省级固定效应之后,按人口聚集分布定点医院显著负向影响各城市累计确诊病例数,而按人口聚集分布发热门诊显著增加确诊病例数。相比于其他空间组合模式,定点医院按人口聚集分布,发热门诊按空间平均分布的组合方式对于疫情防控的效果最好。随着疫情严重程度的上升,按人口聚集分布定点医院对于疫情的抑制作用以及按人口聚集分布发热门诊对疫情防控的负面影响被进一步强化。     

‘Clock-watching and box-ticking’: British local authority planners,professionalism and performance targets

The speed of the statutory planning system has concerned UK Governments for decades. The Labour Government of 1997–2010 placed particular emphasis on increasing the efficiency of public services through performance targets. Whilst the subsequent Coalition Government of 2010–2015 removed many targets, those measuring the speed of planning application processing were kept. These performance targets have important potential implications in terms of the autonomy and space for discretionary judgement traditionally seen as intrinsic to the professional nature of planning. Empirical material exploring how British local authority planners responded to these targets suggests they have both restricted and empowered professionals and, whilst changes to practice have occurred, professional identities have remained more resilient. This contradictory picture highlights the importance of considering the role of frontline professionals in implementing reforms.     

Livability of Urban Public Spaces in Northern Swedish Cities: The Case of Umeå

This study explores how winter conditions are taken into accountin urban planning in the city of Umeå in northern Sweden. Snowand harsh winter conditions are to some extent considered in urban planning in most northern towns in Sweden. Besides that, snow and ice could also be elements in the city attracting people and contribute to the design of public spaces. Current plans and interviews with planners were complemented with participatory observations. The results show that public spaces designed for both winter and summer seasons are preferred.     

Managing the impacts of large public programs

This paper is the result of a research project which investigated the impact of the U.S. space program on the American economy. Based on their field studies of past space program impacts, the authors develop several conclusions regarding the overall management and strategic planning of large public programs. In this article, the author outlines a structured approach to strategic planning and evaluation which will aid public program managers to respond to the challenge of impact management.     

Assessing trunk roads—The conservationist viewpoint

The economic, social and environmental impacts of trunk roads have, to say the least, created much heated discussion and perhaps too little considered evaluation. This paper puts forward a methodology for effectively examining the Trunk Roads Programme from the environmentalist's viewpoint. The authors rightly concentrate on the fact that the road programme has, to some extent at least, become a paradigm for the whole consumer based system. They pursue the argument further than the elementary conflict between competing systems of public transport and pursue the difficult, but important, questions of the dichotomy between the desire for individual mobility (and its assumptions of human liberty) and the need to evaluate external costs which are rarely levied in full upon the beneficiaries. Whilst much of the article concentrates on the principles of a cost benefit evaluation, it brings out some rather important and long term aspects of the construction of these arteries of society which can be described as either scars upon the earth or liberating and effective avenues of mobility. The question remains a vital one for society at large.     

Assessing the environment for an educational institution

This paper reports on the use of a specific procedure or methodology for profiling an organization's environment. Three key objectives underlie the development of this procedure: to expand upon already existing planning tools for identifying organizational environments; to transfer relevant organization-environment concepts to administrators in a practical manner; and to adapt these concepts and planning strategies to the constraints which bind public sector administrators, especially those in smaller organizations. While these methods have been used in working with educational institutions, the underlying rationale is applicable to many other types of organization as well.     

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981–2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981–2010, 2011–2040, and 2041–2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041–2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.     

A decision support methodology for strategic planning in maritime transportation

This paper presents a decision support methodology for strategic planning in tramp and industrial shipping. The proposed methodology combines simulation and optimization, where a Monte Carlo simulation framework is built around an optimization-based decision support system for short-term routing and scheduling. The simulation proceeds by considering a series of short-term routing and scheduling problems using a rolling horizon principle where information is revealed as time goes by. The approach is flexible in the sense that it can easily be configured to provide decision support for a wide range of strategic planning problems, such as fleet size and mix problems, analysis of long-term contracts and contract terms. The methodology is tested on a real case for a major Norwegian shipping company. The methodology provided valuable decision support on important strategic planning problems for the shipping company.     

An Integrated Decision Methodology for Designing and Operating an Air‐Express Courier's Distribution Network*

DHL, an international air‐express courier, has been operating in Hong Kong for many years. In 1998, the new international airport located at a site considerably distant from the old location opened in Hong Kong (HK). Other airport‐related infrastructure facilities have also been developed or are being developed, resulting in major changes in transport structure as well as a shift in customer demand. In this paper a multiyear distribution network is designed for DHL(HK) using an integrated network design methodology, which consists of a macro model and a micro model. The macro model, a mixed 0–1 LP, determines in an aggregate manner the least‐cost distribution network. The micro model, a simulation, evaluates the operational viability and efficacy of the network according to its service coverage and service reliability. We also illustrate how coverage and reliability can be improved via the integrated use of the two models. Extensive discussion on relevant planning and operational issues of an air‐express courier are included. The methodology has been successfully implemented at DHL(HK). It has been used to design the network, to test strategic decisions, and to update the network.     

Assessment and Management of Risk in the Transport of Dangerous Materials: The Case of Chlorine Transport in France

The purpose of this paper is to provide the main results of a study concerning the risk of chlorine transport by train in France. The specific problem of chlorine transport is presented in the framework of a general model for assessing the risk in the transport of dangerous materials. The probability of accidents followed with a chlorine release involving fatalities are put in perspective with other risks having potential health effects on the public. Two types of application of the model are envisaged in relation to the management of risk: the selection of protective measures through a cost-effectiveness approach and the use of the model for a better planning of decisions in an accident situation.     

基于实物期权的光伏并网发电项目成本补偿策略研究

为加快光伏并网发电市场化运营,培育战略性新型产业,政府对光伏并网发电总投资给予补助。本文基于实物期权理论,在成本和上网电价不确定的情况下,研究光伏并网发电项目投资补偿问题。首先讨论发电企业的最佳投资时机并分析了成本补偿政策对发电企业投资决策的影响。然后,分析了最佳投资时机的可达性,得出成本补偿政策实施成功的必要条件。最后,基于等待投资的时间长度,导出了政府成本补偿比例,进一步总结出政府的成本补偿策略。     

高速铁路客运网络列车开行方案优化模型

本文在分析铁路旅客列车开行方案优化研究进展的基础上,提出了一个适合我国铁路客运网络的开行方案优化模型。本模型综合考虑客票收入、运营成本、直达旅客数和总运送旅客数,在保证铁路旅客运输公共服务性质的基础上以运营商收益最大化为目标,对全网列车的开行方案的进行优化。利用随机生成数据进行的模型试验表明,模型可以在较短的时间内求解较大规模的铁路网络列车开行方案优化问题。     

Improving throughput for an electronic assembly line using a constraint analysis methodology

Electronic assembly operations are vital to industries such as telecommunications, computers and consumer electronics. This paper presents a constraint analysis methodology for planning and improving electronic assembly operations that draws on concepts from queueing theory, simulation and production planning. The proposed methodology identifies the operational bottleneck and predicts the utilization, throughput and lead time of the assembly line. It also quantifies the relationship between yields and utilization for the assembly operations. A case study is presented that applies the methodology at an Ericsson, Inc., telecommunications equipment assembly facility. The constraint analysis methodology provided valuable decision support as the managers of Ericsson evaluated the costs and benefits of additional production capacity. Although the focus of this paper is electronic assembly operations, the methodology can be applied to general flow line assembly systems with feedback loops for test and rework under dedicated high-volume production.     

Mapping the organization a methodological approach to organizational change initiation

facturers have realized that in order to survive in this market a new way of doing business is required. Initiating and planning changes is the focus of this paper, which describes a new methodology developed with the Israeli Military Industries. The methodology is designed to promote and initiate change in operations by defining a well-structured approach to Abstract. The defence industry is facing a shrinking market and tough competition. Most defence contractors and manu     

Application of an MRP matrix-based hierarchical planning model to a furniture company

This paper is concerned with the definition of a feasible master schedule for operations management, obtained through an integrated planning system, using a hierarchical methodology (by means of different disaggregation stages) with an appropriate time horizon for connection with the manufacturing requirements planning unit (MRP II). The hierarchical model obtained considers not only product aggregation into types, families and items but also resources aggregation, structure of products aggregation or bill-of-materials aggregation, as well as temporary aggregation. It allows the creation of a master schedule for an adequate time horizon, that can be used as an     

Public Knowledge of and Involvement with Metropolitan and Local Strategic Planning in Australia

Despite academic and practitioner debate surrounding public involvement in planning, little is actually known about the extent to which the public is aware of the planning process. The focus of this paper is the examination of the underlying, latent public knowledge of the planning system in Australia. This latent knowledge (or more accurately, the absence of this knowledge) emerges as a barrier to public involvement. This paper examines public perceptions of the importance of metropolitan and local strategic plans, knowledge of these plans, the main sources of this knowledge, and the extent to which the public is likely to become involved with strategic planning process. The paper concludes that despite large segments of the population viewing strategic planning as important, only a small proportion is actually aware of the plans themselves, while an even smaller proportion is likely to become involved in the planning process.     

Developing a planning culture for more effective strategic planning

The literature of long-range planning is replete with justifications of the need for strategic planning and admonitions concerning its critical importance. However, both the literature of planning and its practice, as manifested in a variety of organizations as diverse as industrial firms, educational systems and law enforcement agencies, are deficient in specifying proven techniques and methodologies for marshalling organizational resources to effectively implement strategic planning.Over a period of years, the authors have consulted with a variety of business organizations and public agencies in the development and implementation of long-range planning processes. From this work has come an empirically-tested conclusion that the success of long-range planning in an organization is less sensitive to the parameters of the planning techniques that it is to the overall culture within which the planning is accomplished. Since most of the non-pontifical literature of planning focuses on planning techniques and specifications for planning processes, these conclusions suggest a critical void in planning methodology.     

Estimating output mix effectiveness: An applied scenario approach for the Armed Forces

The ability of public sector policy makers to prioritize has a huge impact on the effectiveness of public service provision. Public services can take the form of final outputs demanded by consumers or of intermediate outputs contributing to a process of realizing the higher goals of society. In doing the right things, policy makers choose a mix of intermediate outputs maximizing their preference value for public service outcomes, while managers do things right when responsible for producing outputs efficiently. This distinction enables us to pinpoint important reasons for inefficiencies in the provision of public services. Taking advantage of the method of scenario based planning, a model for measuring effectiveness is developed for situations where traditional methods such as two-stage regressions fail due to long time lags and lack of variation in the variables. Scenarios take the role of outcomes in the modeling of outcome mapping functions, where each scenario represents a set of environmental variables. The model is specified for the provision of defense outcomes, where the lag between changes in input and impacts on outcomes are substantial. From a sample of 12 combat units in the Norwegian Armed Forces, producing different outputs, we find that inefficiencies in output mix can explain most of the changes in overall effectiveness over a four-year period of time.     

Portfolio-based airline fleet planning under stochastic demand

Airlines operate their fleet of aircraft over a relatively long time horizon during which the realized stochastic demand has the potential to profoundly impact the airlines’ financial performance. This makes the investment in a fleet of aircraft a highly capital-intensive long-term commitment, associated with inherent risks. We propose an innovative three-step airline fleet planning methodology with the primary objective of identifying fleets that are robust to stochastic demand realizations. The methodology presents two main innovation aspects. The first one is the use of the mean reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to model the long-term travel demand, which is then combined with discrete-time Markov chain transitions to generate demand scenarios. The second innovative aspect is the adoption of a portfolio-based fleet planning perspective that allows for an explicit comparison of different fleets, in size and composition. Ultimately, the methodology yields for each fleet in the portfolio a distribution of net present values of operating profit across the planning horizon and a list of key financial and operational metrics per year. The robustest fleet can be selected based on the operating profit generating capability across different realizations of stochastic demand. An illustrative case study is presented as a proof of concept. The case study is used to demonstrate the type of results obtained and to discuss the usefulness of the methodology proposed.     

Understanding the consequences of public social media use for work

Social media has slowly become ubiquitous in the workplace; however, the use of these technologies has been associated with both positive and negative consequences. Using the JD-R model, this study examines these positive and negative consequences of the public social media use for work. Survey data of 421 employees is used to explore the relationship between public social media use for work and engagement, and exhaustion, through opposing mechanisms. The findings demonstrate that interruptions and work–life conflict are important demands, whereas accessibility and efficient communication are resources associated with social media use for work. These demands and resources are related to engagement and exhaustion.