Defying Gender Norms in Rural Bangladesh: A Social Demographic Analysis

This paper proposes core innovations in the strategy of research on demographic behaviour. One aim is a shift of attention away from events and towards a focus on dynamic processes and their interplay: away from a preoccupation with marriage and divorce, births, deaths, migrations, and household structure towards a broader perspective that takes account of partnership and intimacy, parenthood, potential and well-being, position in society and space, and personal ties. Another aim is a much closer engagement with genetics, neuroscience, psychology, and behavioural economics. A third aim is a strategy that pays more attention to pathways within the individual, to the processes entailed when the individual interacts with various contexts, and to progressions that involve the interplay of the pathways and processes through the life course. These shifts of emphasis, which have already begun to occur, require a systematic reassessment of priorities for research on demographic behaviour.     

人口容量与适度人口的热力学解释

对于地球的人口容量问题,人口学者曾做过许多尝试,并提出了不同版本的人口容量阙值。本文在借鉴前人的研究成果基础上,把生物圈的能量流动分为外部能量流动和内部能量流动,并在回顾人类社会发展历程中,提出人类社会的发展源自内能流能量的增加和人类对内能流能量使用效率的提高。进而又得出了人口容量和适度人口的热力学模型,及其热力学含义。     

1974—1985年间中国人口理论发展的逻辑与历史

20世纪70年代初,中国的计划生育工作常常遇到一些不可回避而又迫切需要作出解释的理论问题,中国的人口学研究也由此蓬勃兴起。中国人口学界从研究社会主义基本人口规律入手,由点到面,由浅入深,由特殊到一般,经10余年努力,到1985年,人口规律的知识体系初步形成,马克思主义的两种生产理论也得以丰富和发展。     

我国人口老龄化对经济社会的宏观和微观影响研究

2000年,我国步入人口老龄化社会。伴随着老龄化进程的加快,人口老龄化对我国经济社会发展造成一定的影响,其宏观影响主要涵盖以下几方面:减少劳动力有效供给,减缓劳动生产率速度提高,影响产业结构调整,带来储蓄率的下降、引起消费水平的变化和加重养老保障的负担等。其微观影响主要包括:改变企业劳动力的供给和成本,加重企业养老金支付负担,同时人口老龄化对老年人的基本生活产生一系列的影响。     

Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries

We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of standard demographic variables. We reconstruct the female populations of three countries: Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys; Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data; and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and good quality vital registration data. In addition, we extend the method to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also use it to assess the consistency of results between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems.     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

The effects of defamilization and familization measures on the accumulation of retirement income for women in the UK

This article is concerned with the link between the effects of pro-market pension reforms on women and familization/defamilization measures. It aims to contribute to the study of this link in three ways. Firstly, it identifies defamilization/familization measures that have the potential to reduce negative effects of pro-market pension measures on women. Secondly, based on the examples from the United Kingdom, it shows that the government’s willingness to provide sufficient defamilization/familization measures to assist women to deal with the negative effects of the pro-market pension measures should not be taken for granted. Thirdly, it suggests ways for tackling this problem.     

新疆维吾尔族人口的空间分布与变动

新疆维吾尔自治区地处西部边陲,是一个拥有47个民族成分的大家庭,占全国总面积的1/6。维吾尔族是这个大家庭的一员,也是其中人口最多的民族。该民族的形成与发展经历了漫长的历史时期,人口的空间分布状况与变动情况也有其独特的规律性和特点。尤其是新中国成立后50年来,维吾尔族人口发生了巨大的变化。下面我们就来用定性和定量两方面来分析新疆维吾尔族人口的空间分布与变动情况。     

Stress and Resilience in the Oral Histories of Rural Older Women

Oral history research has seldom focused on the reflections of rural older women. The purpose of this qualitative study was to identify: (a) stresses associated with major historical events that affected the lives of rural older women, and (b) strategies they used to deal with those stresses. Oral histories were gathered from a cross-section of 25 older women living in a small rural Midwestern community and analyzed using the method of constant comparison (Glaser & Straus, 1967 Glaser, B. and Strauss, A. 1967. The discovery of grounded theory, Chicago: Aldine.  [Google Scholar]). Content analysis revealed that economic hardship, disruption of family life, and fears and uncertainties were stressors associated with the Great Depression and world wars of the 20th century. Resilience was demonstrated by frugality, reliance on social supports, and acceptance. Implications for intervention with rural older women are discussed.     

The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland

We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum.     

Revisiting the Disengagement Theory with Differentials in the Determinants of Life Satisfaction

This study proposes that differentials in the determinants of life satisfaction can be used to test if the elderly have a new equilibrium. One's global life satisfaction is taken as an indicator for one's inner world and for the elderly, global life satisfaction is assumed to be not influenced by life domains which indicate drastic social changes, because they are supposed to be disengaged from social activities. On the other hand, global life satisfaction for other adults is affected by life domains indicating social changes, because they are still tightly involved with social activities. The differentials in the determinants of global life satisfaction thus indicate that the elderly have a new equilibrium.A national survey on Taiwanese living conditions conducted by the Ministry of Interior, the Republic of China, in 1998 is used to test the above hypotheses. The analytical results show that the elderly have perceived drastic social changes. Moreover, they do have an equilibrium that is different from the other two age groups.     

Polygyny and Fertility among the Shipibo of the Peruvian Amazon

This report describes a study of the fertility experience of an Amazon Indian tribe that has shown evidence of having the highest documented fertility of any human group. The Shipibo, who live in the upper Peruvian Amazon, are experiencing rapid cultural change, including a decline in the prevalence of polygyny. This study tests the specific hypotheses that polygyny limits individual female and community fertility through the mechanism of post partum sexual abstinence and longer birth intervals. Total population counts in eight villages and reproductive histories of all females age 13+ show that mean birth interval lengths of polygynous women are four months longer than those of monogamous women. Fertility of polygynous women was lower, with 1.3 fewer term-births per reproductive span than that of monogamous women. The community general fertility rate is negatively associated with the proportion of polygynous birth intervals in the community. In this study, cultural change is strongly associated with higher fertility.     

甘肃东乡族人口变迁、分布及特点

东乡族是我国55个少数民族之一,也是甘肃省特有少数民族之一。中华人民共和国成立后,东乡族人口有较大幅度的增长。从人口绝对数来看,仍是一个人口规模相对较小的民族。本文以2000年第五次人口普查为基础,根据历次人口普查统计资料,对甘肃东乡族人口变迁与分布状况作了分析,试图探索其发展特征和分布特点。     

中国柯尔克孜族人口变迁、分布及特点

柯尔克孜族是一个原生跨界类跨国民族,中国境内的柯尔克孜族77.4%分布在新疆的克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州境内,是我国少数几个仍然以畜牧业为主的民族。柯尔克孜族的人口发展和变迁具有自己的一些特点。在与世界接轨的今天,柯尔克孜族和我国所有民族一样,正处于艰难的人口转型之中。     

Selections and social selectivity on the academic track: A life-course analysis of educational attainment in Germany

Graduating from university is just the final step of an extended educational career. Sociological transition research has revealed that final educational attainment must be understood as the result of a sequence of successive decisions. With regard to graduation from university, one has to take into account that upper secondary school qualifications are required for enrolling in the first place, and in Germany, the decision for this kind of schooling is at a much earlier age. So where on the long way to the university degree does Germany ‘lose’ its potential academics and in particular its lower class children?     

Origin dependence, secondary migration, and the indirect estimation of migration flows from population stocks

US census data from 1940 to 2000 are used in this paper to illustrate the importance of origin dependence on migration streams and to examine the effects of such dependence on patterns of interregional migration. These findings are then used to make possible the indirect estimation of migration flows. A method is introduced that uses historical regularities found in the ratios of secondary to primary migration and two consecutive birthplace-specific counts of multiregional population stocks. The results demonstrate how patterns of primary and secondary migration act to shape population redistribution processes.     

Change,Resources and Self-Esteem in a Community of Women Religious

The effect of change and resources to cope with that change on self-esteem is explored in a study of a community of Catholic women religious. These middle-aged and elderly women are highly educated with life long attachment to the workforce. In addition, they have all experienced a high degree of change in their lives. The amount of change was found to be related to self-esteem as were specific social and psychological coping resources. A sense of being in control of one's life was an important predictor of selfesteem, and was itself affected by the amount of change experienced. The number of close friends that could be identified was related to self-esteem. Age and physical disability were not directly related to self-esteem when other variables were controlled, but rather affected self-esteem indirectly throu h feelings of control over one's life. Similarities between these f indings and studies of elderly women in the general population are emphasized and implications for the future are presented.     

论加强青海人口发展战略研究的必要性与紧迫性

面对青海日益严峻的人口形势,要求我们必须要用科学的态度正视青海的人口问题,抓紧研究青海人口发展战略,这不仅是实施青海可持续发展战略的前提条件和重要内容,也是实现全面建设青海小康社会的客观需要和制定青海经济社会发展规划的重要依据。     

中国各地区人口结构与储蓄率关系的实证研究

基于我国各省级行政区1989~2005年的人口统计数据和经济统计数据,文章研究了各地区人口转变对各地区储蓄率的影响。分析表明,储蓄率和少儿抚养比间存在负相关关系,和老年抚养比间存在正相关关系;基于2000年各地区人口预期寿命和储蓄率的分析,证实了生命周期假说预言的储蓄率和人口预期寿命间的正相关关系。     

新疆俄罗斯族人口的数量变动与分布变迁研究（1949-2000年）

本文根据历次全国人口普查资料和相关文献,以1949～2000年新疆俄罗斯族人口变动与分布为研究对象,对50年来新疆俄罗斯族的人口变动及成因、地域分布与城镇分布的历史变迁进行了考察分析。