重庆市公共项目的融资新途径—PFI

本文针对目前重庆公共项目建设的压力,提出了一种新的融资模式——PFI(私动融资),介绍了PFI的发展、特点、运作方式以及重庆利用PFI方式融资的可操作性,指是目前重庆公共项目建设发展中可以采用的一种有效的融资模式。     

我国群体性事件的特点、原因和对策

本文对我国群体性事件的原因和特点进行分析，并且从社会公平、保障人权、司法独立、反腐倡廉和干部培训等角度提出解决对策。     

ERP项目风险管理的探讨和研究

本文通过对ERP项目风险的识别进行系统的分析，并针对ERP项目的风险采取的防范措施进行了分析和总结，以减少和规避ERP项目的风险，保证ERP项目的成功实施。     

浅谈高校危机事件的分类及特点

近年来,高校危机事件呈现逐年高发态势,不仅干扰学校正常的教学秩序,而且对学校的形象和社会声誉产生严重影响。本文在对高校危机事件概念进行界定的基础上,将2003年以来发生的社会影响较大的高校危机事件进行了归纳分类,并对其特点进行了总结分析。     

创业过程中高成本事件失败学习的内在机制研究

创业失败比一般的组织失败更具离散性、碎片化和多样性等特征,创业者从失败中重新崛起是一个具有特殊意义的学习过程.与之相对应,创业失败学习是一个复杂的、动态性的学习过程,而不是孤立的学习事件.通过创业失败进行类型化和范畴化以解构创业失败的本质和独特性,重点讨论高成本事件失败的学习过程和学习风格,解构高成本事件失败学习的内在机制,在此基础上构建理论框架并提出未来研究方向.     

关于电力工程项目风险管理的思考

本文通过对电力工程项目风险管理的特点进行总结,在项目筹备启动阶段就进行风险识别,在电力工程中引用保险机制,以有效驾驭风险,实现工程项目预期目标。     

对制造业集成化项目风险管理的思考

<正>为了增强企业竞争实力,扩大市场份额,加快企业发展,越来越多的企业在做好主营产品的基础上,业务范围不断向业务链两端延伸,从单机(裸机)销售向集成化项目即:"全面解决方案的供应商"转变,随着销售项目涉及的领域和范围越来越广,面临的风险也日趋复杂,风险管理成为确保项目成功的关键因素和重要支撑,因此,构建集成化项目风     

浅析研发项目的风险管理

在科研项目研发工作中,普遍存在着项目超进度、超预算的现象。因此,项目管理者应当树立正确的风险管理意识,促进项目资源的有效利用,缩短研发周期,以期达到项目研发的目的。在本文中,笔者首先对风险进行解释,然后对风险管理的内涵与功能进行阐述,最后结合研发项目风险的特点提出研发项目的风险管理办法。     

基于项目生命周期观的R&D项目风险管理分析

本文针对R&D项目在执行和成果转化过程中存在着诸多不确定因素,引入风险管理循环组以降低R＆D项目的失败率.文中从项目生命周期角度出发,对R&D项目进行三阶段生命周期的划分,并在对生命周期各阶段与风险管理循环组关系分析的基础上,对R&D项目三阶段的风险管理作了初步的分析.     

政府补偿企业科技创新失败项目的影响因素分析

通过对相关文献的分析整理,提取制约政府补偿科技创新失败项目的影响因素。构建解释结构模型,明确各影响因素间的层次结构关系,提炼其中最直接和最根本的影响因素,并提出相关政策建议。     

工程项目中社会资本对合理风险分担的影响研究

经济活动总是嵌入在一定社会关系中的,因此,任何一个工程项目风险分担的合理性都应在社会资本的视域下考察与判断.本文通过理论分析构建工程项目中社会资本对合理风险分担的影响模型,并以30个成功建设项目为样本采集到126份有效数据,运用结构方程模型的方法进行实证分析.研究结果表明:(1)风险分担可分解为缔约阶段的风险初次分担和履约过程中的风险再分担,二者之间具有显著的互补与联动关系;(2)社会资本对风险初次分担的完备程度产生显著反向影响,而对事后支持制度产生显著正向影响,且对事后支持制度的总效应相对较大;(3)社会资本对风险再分担的规模与实施效率均产生显著正向影响,且对风险再分担的实施效率总效应最大.本研究有利于引导工程项目交易双方根据社会资本制定更为合理的风险分担方案,从而促使项目成功.     

考虑事件风险的在险价值研究

本文讨论了考虑事件风险的资产的在险价值方法,并以此对上海股票指数作了实证研究。这种方法用跳跃来描述事件风险,用跳跃-扩散过程来描述收益率过程。通过模拟退火算法来估计模型参数,利用随机模拟方法求得资产收益率的模拟分布,进而计算组合的在险价值。通过对上海指数的实证研究表明,资产的事件风险是不可忽略的,考虑事件风险的在险价值更加合理。     

Discrimination, Vulnerability, and Justice in the Face of Risk

Recent research finds that perceived risk is closely associated with race and gender. In surveys of the American public a subset of white males stand out for their uniformly low perceptions of environmental health risks, while most nonwhite and nonmale respondents reveal higher perceived risk. Such findings have been attributed to the advantageous position of white males in American social life. This article explores the linked possibility that this demographic pattern is driven not simply by the social advantages or disadvantages embodied in race or gender, but by the subjective experience of vulnerability and by sociopolitical evaluations pertaining to environmental injustice. Indices of environmental injustice and social vulnerability were developed as part of a U.S. National Risk Survey (n= 1,192) in order to examine their effect on perceived risk. It was found that those who regarded themselves as vulnerable and supported belief statements consistent with the environmental justice thesis offered higher risk ratings across a range of hazards. Multivariate analysis indicates that our measures of vulnerability and environmental injustice predict perceived risk but do not account for all of the effects of race and gender. The article closes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for further work on vulnerability and risk, risk communication, and risk management practices generally.     

考虑组织失效与协调的复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播模型

基于产品部件间的设计关联和组织产品间的镜像假设,构建一对一依赖的复杂产品研发项目组织-产品相依网络模型。在此基础上,构建考虑组织失效和组织间协调的复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播动力学模型,并针对由少数部件发生设计变更风险事件引发的复杂产品研发项目相依网络上的设计变更风险传播进行数值仿真。结果表明：组织失效和组织协调不足均会导致设计变更风险的积累,使得设计变更风险传播经历缓慢传播、失控传播后达到相对稳定状态;组织设计能力充足且组织间协调充分时设计变更风险传播不发生。复杂产品研发项目设计变更风险传播受到部件设计变更风险容量的显著影响,存在设计变更风险传播阈值η*3使得设计变更风险传播不发生;传播阈值η*3与初始变更源规模正相关;研发组织的冗余设计能力存在作用条件,使得传播阈值η*3保持在最低水平。研究成果完善了项目管理中风险动态分析框架,为提高复杂产品研发项目抵御设计变更风险的能力提供建议。     

Economics of Disaster Risk,Social Vulnerability,and Mental Health Resilience

We investigate the relationship between exposure to Hurricanes Katrina and/or Rita and mental health resilience by vulnerability status, with particular focus on the mental health outcomes of single mothers versus the general public. We advance a measurable notion of mental health resilience to disaster events. We also calculate the economic costs of poor mental health days added by natural disaster exposure. Negative binomial analyses show that hurricane exposure increases the expected count of poor mental health days for all persons by 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.44–31.14%), and by 71.88% (95% CI, 39.48–211.82%) for single females with children. Monthly time‐series show that single mothers have lower event resilience, experiencing higher added mental stress. Results also show that the count of poor mental health days is sensitive to hurricane intensity, increasing by a factor of 1.06 (95% CI, 1.02–1.10) for every billion (U.S.$) dollars of damage added for all exposed persons, and by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI, 1.03–1.14) for single mothers. We estimate that single mothers, as a group, suffered over $130 million in productivity loss from added postdisaster stress and disability. Results illustrate the measurability of mental health resilience as a two‐dimensional concept of resistance capacity and recovery time. Overall, we show that natural disasters regressively tax disadvantaged population strata.     

Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective

Public policies to mitigate the impacts of extreme events such as hurricanes or terrorist attacks will differ depending on whether they focus on reducing risk or reducing vulnerability. Here we present and defend six assertions aimed at exploring the benefits of vulnerability-based policies. (1) Risk-based approaches to covering the costs of extreme events do not depend for their success on reduction of vulnerability. (2) Risk-based approaches to preparing for extreme events are focused on acquiring accurate probabilistic information about the events themselves. (3) Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the incidence of extreme events. (4) Extreme events are created by context. (5) It is politically difficult to justify vulnerability reduction on economic grounds. (6) Vulnerability reduction is a human rights issue; risk reduction is not.     

基于组织-任务网络的研发项目工期风险分析——以组织失效为风险因素

在项目工期风险管理领域,大多基于活动工期的不确定性进行研究,对由组织失效引起的工期风险问题较少关注。在对研发项目组织网络和任务网络分析的基础上,提出了研发项目的组织-任务网络模型。借鉴相继故障理论中的耦合映象格子,构建了以组织失效为风险因素的研发项目工期风险分析模型,并对该理论模型进行了数值仿真。结果表明,施加给组织节点的外部扰动达到某一数值即关键扰动阈值时可显著导致项目工期延误,该关键扰动阈值与组织间的耦合度呈负相关,与组织网络的平均度呈正相关,度大袭击比随机袭击和度小袭击更易于导致项目工期风险的发生,且造成工期延误的程度随着组织间耦合度的减小而愈加显著。研究结论为网络化背景下研发项目工期风险管理提供了新的视角。     

Hazard Experience,Geophysical Vulnerability,and Flood Risk Perceptions in a Postdisaster City,the Case of New Orleans

This article investigates the determinants of flood risk perceptions in New Orleans, Louisiana (United States), a deltaic coastal city highly vulnerable to seasonal nuisance flooding and hurricane‐induced deluges and storm surges. Few studies have investigated the influence of hazard experience, geophysical vulnerability (hazard proximity), and risk perceptions in cities undergoing postdisaster recovery and rebuilding. We use ordinal logistic regression techniques to analyze experiential, geophysical, and sociodemographic variables derived from a survey of 384 residents in seven neighborhoods. We find that residents living in neighborhoods that flooded during Hurricane Katrina exhibit higher levels of perceived risk than those residents living in neighborhoods that did not flood. In addition, findings suggest that flood risk perception is positively associated with female gender, lower income, and direct flood experiences. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical and empirical research on environmental risk, flood risk communication strategies, and flood hazards planning.     

On Some Recent Definitions and Analysis Frameworks for Risk,Vulnerability, and Resilience

Recently, considerable attention has been paid to a systems‐based approach to risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis. It is argued that risk, vulnerability, and resilience are inherently and fundamentally functions of the states of the system and its environment. Vulnerability is defined as the manifestation of the inherent states of the system that can be subjected to a natural hazard or be exploited to adversely affect that system, whereas resilience is defined as the ability of the system to withstand a major disruption within acceptable degradation parameters and to recover within an acceptable time, and composite costs, and risks. Risk, on the other hand, is probability based, defined by the probability and severity of adverse effects (i.e., the consequences). In this article, we look more closely into this approach. It is observed that the key concepts are inconsistent in the sense that the uncertainty (probability) dimension is included for the risk definition but not for vulnerability and resilience. In the article, we question the rationale for this inconsistency. The suggested approach is compared with an alternative framework that provides a logically defined structure for risk, vulnerability, and resilience, where all three concepts are incorporating the uncertainty (probability) dimension.