犯罪决策的行为经济学分析

行为经济学发展了新古典经济学对人和人性的假设,更适合用来对复杂的犯罪决策进行分析。本文利用行为经济学中的行为人异质性、有限理性、有限意志等原理来分析犯罪决策。     

林农林地流转决策行为及影响因素的经济学分析——以辽宁省为例

随着市场经济的发展,林农的生产方式正从传统的小农经济生产逐步过渡到以市场为导向的商品经济生产.林农林地流转决策行为越来越多地受到市场因素的影响.因此,有必要从经济学的角度来分析林农林地流转决策行为及影响因素.本文从规模效益、土地偏好、投资机会成本、要素转移的机会成本和林地经营收益5个方面对林农林地流转的决策行为及影响因素来进行经济学分析.     

异质发电商竞争下电力市场减排锦标博弈--结构与行为北大核心CSCDCSSCI

利用行为经济学理论研究了电力市场中异质发电商竞争下的减排锦标博弈问题,先后讨论了不同市场与奖金结构下均衡的边际获胜概率及其最优减排努力程度.从实验经济学角度对理论模型进行了实验检验,在此基础上将模型拓展到考虑影响发电商减排决策的非金钱因素,如社会比较的减排锦标模型,并给出了模型的最优参数估计与均衡预测值.通过比较分析发现,在3、4人减排锦标赛中,针对不同发电主体构成,增加胜利者奖励数量既不能驱动强者提高也不会迫使弱者降低各自的最优减排量;无论初始调度禀赋如何,只要检验实验信息完全公开,所有发电商均存在过度减排投资行为,且在双强者单弱者参与情形下,强势发电商的减排努力水平与获胜者数量正相关关系与标准理论预测相悖;对参数的约束条件显著降低行为经济学模型拟合度,其中广义模型均衡预测最契合检验实验的基本特征,而特定嵌套模型验证理论预测的可行性.     

异质发电商竞争下电力市场减排锦标博弈——结构与行为

利用行为经济学理论研究了电力市场中异质发电商竞争下的减排锦标博弈问题,先后讨论了不同市场与奖金结构下均衡的边际获胜概率及其最优减排努力程度． 从实验经济学角度对理论模型进行了实验检验,在此基础上将模型拓展到考虑影响发电商减排决策的非金钱因素,如社会比较的减排锦标模型,并给出了模型的最优参数估计与均衡预测值． 通过比较分析发现,在3、4 人减排锦标赛中,针对不同发电主体构成,增加胜利者奖励数量既不能驱动强者提高也不会迫使弱者降低各自的最优减排量; 无论初始调度禀赋如何,只要检验实验信息完全公开,所有发电商均存在过度减排投资行为,且在双强者单弱者参与情形下,强势发电商的减排努力水平与获胜者数量正相关关系与标准理论预测相悖; 对参数的约束条件显著降低行为经济学模型拟合度,其中广义模型均衡预测最契合检验实验的基本特征,而特定嵌套模型验证理论预测的可行性．     

从理性经济学到非理性经济学——评卡纳曼的《选择、价值和结构》

传统上 ,经济学研究依赖于一个基本假设 ,即人们受自我利益驱动 ,有能力做出理性判断和决策。就如西方传统经济学的鼻祖亚当·斯密认为 ,人本来就是自私的 ,但出于自私目的进行的市场交易可以达到最佳的市场效果。所以 ,传统经济学家都认为研究人的心理和情绪是不科学的。然而 ,丹尼尔·卡纳曼 (DanielKahneman)从心理学角度出发 ,研究发现人的经济行为往往是非理性的 ,弗农·史密斯(VernonL.Smith)又利用自然科学的实验方法证明这种非理性行为是真实的。为了表彰卡纳曼和史密斯在行为经济学(BehavioralEconomics)和实验经济学(Experime…     

新文科背景下行为经济学课程教学改革研究

本文以郑州大学为例,剖析了行为经济学课程教学的现状与主要问题,并结合郑州大学“双一流”高校高质量发展的现实需求和行为经济学交叉学科的特点,提出行为经济学课程教学改革的主要措施,以期为行为经济学课程质量提升提供参考,为新文科背景下的学科发展提供借鉴。     

神经经济学在传统经济中有效运用

本论文主要通过分析大脑结构与其功能特点阐明神经经济学这一新兴学科可以帮助标准经济学解释其无法解释的现象;其次,将其与标准经济学进行对比,进而分析出在决策者行为方面,决策者的认知失调、经济危机即将发生时的后知感以及过度自信与乐观都与其经济决策失误有关;在消费者与员工方面,三种成像技术(FMRI,QEEG,MEG)可以分析消费者以及员工的想法,即通过测试消费者的脑电波和大脑内部的活动进而将产品和广告投入市场进行销售,通过刺激公司员工大脑奖励区域从而调动他们的积极性来激励他们的工作热情。     

行为经济学视角下的大学生就业问题分析

大学生就业问题产生的原因可归结为两个方面,一方面是就业市场需求等外部因素,另一方面是大学生对待就业和择业的非理性行为等自身因素,这是对大学生就业影响更大的但通常被忽视的一个方面。从行为经济学视角分析,这种非理性行为产生的原因在于行为人在不确定条件下决策时的各种认知偏差,其对大学生就业决策有重要影响,给大学生带来就业风险。因此,应防范非理性行为的发生,以降低大学生就业风险。     

行为经济学视角下的大学生就业问题分析

大学生就业问题产生的原因可归结为两个方面,一方面是就业市场需求等外部因素,另一方面是大学生对待就业和择业的非理性行为等自身因素,这是对大学生就业影响更大的但通常被忽视的一个方面.从行为经济学视角分析,这种非理性行为产生的原因在于行为人在不确定条件下决策时的各种认知偏差,其对大学生就业决策有重要影响,给大学生带来就业风险.因此,应防范非理性行为的发生,以降低大学生就业风险.     

浅谈数学在经济学中的应用

本文从经济学与数学的结合,数学在经济学中应用的重要性等方面阐述了数学方法在众多的经济学研究方法中占据主要地位,数学使经济学走向成熟和科学。     

Toxics,Toyotas, and Terrorism: The Behavioral Economics of Fear and Stigma

Economists have traditionally viewed the behavioral response to risk as continuous and proportional. In contrast, psychologists have often contended that people have little control over their response to risk that is dichotomous, nonproportional, visceral, and fear based. In extreme cases, this automatic response results in the stigmatization of a product, technology, or choice, which seemingly cannot be eliminated or reduced. In resolving these contrasting perspectives, we review four recent studies that blend behavioral economics and psychology. Together, they provide evidence for a dual‐process decision model for risk that incorporates both reason and fear. They show consumers’ responses to perceived risk as a mix of proportional and dichotomous (safe/unsafe) responses that are relatively more continuous in situations where deliberation is possible, and more dichotomous in emotional or stressful circumstances. These findings reconcile mixed results in past studies, and, more importantly, the dual‐process model allows a clear definition of stigma, and suggests new ways to mitigate stigma and to help manage potentially damaging overreactions to it.     

Banks and Discrimination: How Far Can We Go with Competition? A Reply to Block,Snow, and Stringham

This article discusses competition theory and how advancements from the fields of economics, cognitive science, decision sciences, and management urge us to stop using the same recipe for all different kinds of illnesses. The issue of discrimination in the banking industry offers an interesting platform for this argument, which is developed as an antithesis to what Block, Snow, and Stringham (2008) proposed in their article published in a recent issue of the Business and Society Review. Foundational concepts for a behavioral model of discrimination are presented.     

突发信息影响下的投资、消费及风险溢价

本文在CCAPM模型及行为经济学理论基础上建立突发信息影响下的资产定价模型,借此探讨突发信息对投资者主观决策以及风险溢价的影响,并利用数值迭代法给出了风险溢价的数值解。研究结果表明:突发信息所产生的正面影响会提高风险溢价,反之则降低溢价值,为解释"追涨杀跌"现象提供新视角;同时发现,投资者先期投资决策的结果好坏与风险溢价呈正向关系。最后利用中美两国证券市场数据进行数据模拟,结果表明本模型较好的避免了"股权溢价之谜"和"无风险利率之谜"。     

战略决策过程中决策、决策团队与程序理性的实证研究

战略决策制定是企业高管团队的主要职责之一。本文基于管理决策、高管团队与组织行为学的相关理论,对企业战略决策过程的影响因素和影响机制进行探讨,深入分析了决策团队对战略决策过程中程序理性行为的影响,提出假设并进行了实证检验。研究发现,战略决策团队的工作经验、进取精神和沟通正向影响程序理性;战略决策的重大程度正向影响程序理性。同时发现,控制变量企业的业务多元化程度负向影响程序理性。     

Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large‐scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision‐making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab‐ and modeling‐based studies.     

人员管理的经济方法：过去的成就与未来的方向

人事经济学是最近不到20年在经济学和人力资源管理的交接地带兴起的一个新领域,它将经济学用于考察企业内部组织和人力资源管理问题,对现代人力资源管理产生了深远影响.本文对该领域过去的主要成就和未来的研究方向和国内研究动态进行综述.     

Product Reuse Economics in Closed‐Loop Supply Chain Research

This paper provides a critical review of analytic research on the business economics of product reuse inspired by industrial practice. Insights and critical assumptions are provided for each paper. We further classify the research into four streams: industrial engineering/operations research, design, strategy, and behavioral, and present a framework linking these streams. We find that some modeling assumptions risk being institutionalized, and suggest a renewed exploration of industrial practice. Future research should also include empirical work on consumer behavior, product diffusion, and valuation of returns.     

Quadratic programming applications

Although quadratic programming (QP) is often studied as a methodology by decision scientists, little emphasis seems to be given to the type of decision science problems that can be so modeled. This paper reviews and extends some of the applied and methodological areas where QP is applicable, discussing and illustrating the characteristics and aspects of the accompanying solutions. Some of the methodological areas amenable include regression analysis, decision analysis, and quadratic approximations to generally complex functions. In the functional management areas, QP is applicable to problems in economics, such as demand-supply response and enterprise selection. In finance, it is used in portfolio analysis; in agriculture, in crop selection. Both the methodological and functional applications of QP are reviewed. Potential new applications of QP are suggested.     

New contributions from old sources: Recovering Barnard’s science and revitalizing the Carnegie School

Scholars have called for the Carnegie School to revisit fundamental ideas such as decision, behavioral plausibility (Gavetti, Levinthal, & Ocasio, 2007, p. 531), and the individual (Cohen, 2007). In essence, these calls urge greater realism, beyond the School’s founding concepts such as satisficing and bounded rationality, which differentiated organization science from economics. This paper argues that revisiting the School’s ties to Chester Barnard advances work along these lines because of Barnard’s experiential method and his findings on the subjective and objective nature of, and on the personal and impersonal forces entailed in, organization. The paper begins by discussing the insufficient recognition of the School’s ties to Barnard and the emphasis on Herbert Simon’s translation of Barnard at the expense of the original Barnard. Then, based on Barnard’s unpublished and lesser known works (O’Connor, 2012, p. 112–170), it shows the scope and depth of Barnard’s contributions: a new “organic applied social science” (Barnard’s phrase, Wolf, 1995a) founded on a subjective relationship to scientific knowledge and ordinary action that Barnard called “personal responsibility.” Likewise, this science emerged from Barnard’s relationship to his own experience, specifically, his pursuit of a science to explain his and others’ experience of organization.     

The Economist as Engineer: Game Theory,Experimentation, and Computation as Tools for Design Economics

Economists have lately been called upon not only to analyze markets, but to design them. Market design involves a responsibility for detail, a need to deal with all of a market's complications, not just its principle features. Designers therefore cannot work only with the simple conceptual models used for theoretical insights into the general working of markets. Instead, market design calls for an engineering approach. Drawing primarily on the design of the entry level labor market for American doctors (the National Resident Matching Program), and of the auctions of radio spectrum conducted by the Federal Communications Commission, this paper makes the case that experimental and computational economics are natural complements to game theory in the work of design. The paper also argues that some of the challenges facing both markets involve dealing with related kinds of complementarities, and that this suggests an agenda for future theoretical research.