Renewable resources and population growth: Past experiences and future prospects

The links between population growth, resource use, and environmental quality are too complex to permit straightforward generalizations about direct causal relationships. Rapid population growth, however, has increased the number of poor people in developing countries, thus contributing to the degradation of the environment and the renewable resources of land, water, and nonhuman species on which humans depend. Demands of the rich industrial countries have also generated environmental pressures and have been foremost in the consumption of the so-called nonrenewable resources: fossil fuels, metals, and minerals. On the other hand, population and economic growth have also stimulated technological and management changes that help supply and use resources more effectively. Wide variations in the possible ultimate size of world population and technological change make future interrelationships of population, resources, and the environment uncertain as well as complex. But those interrelationships are mediated largely by government policies. Responsible governments can bring about a sustainable balance in the population/resource/environment equation by adopting population and development policies that experience has shown could reduce future population numbers in developing countries below the additional five billion indicated in current United Nations medium projections, coupled with proven management programs in both developing and developed countries that could brake and reverse the depletion and degradation of natural resources.This article is adapted from: Robert Repetto, "Population, Resources, Environment; An Uncertain Future,"Population Bulletin, Vol. 42, No. 2 (Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau, 1987).     

The population and economic problems of South Asia]

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.     

The population and economic issues in West Asia after WW II]

Using statistical data, this report analyzes population and economic issues in West Asia after World War II. The high rate of development as witnessed in West Asian countries after their gaining of political independence following World War II was accompained by an accelerated population growth. This population growth spead unevenly among different areas. Based on surveys of 17 countries in West Asia, the socioeconomic development and rapid rate of population growth have largely affected the population age, sex, urban and rural residential, and economic sector employment structures. With the help of indicators and mathematical methods to plot population development, these countries can be divided into 3 categories based on population development features. The semiindustrial countries demonstrate a gradually slowing population growth rate, most of these countries having experienced a peak period in the growth rate during the time of population transition. The agricultural countries show a natural population growth rate which is generally considered low. The 3rd category, the oil-producing countries, are currently experiencing a peak in population growth. In general, the popuation growth rate has dramatically accelerated in West Asia since World War II. Between 1950-1960 this rate was 2.58%; between 1960-1970, 2.75%; and between 1970-1980, 2.92%. This rate shows an increase of 6.6% between 1950-1960 and 6.2% between 1960-1970. It surpasses the average world population growth rate and most of the developing country growth rates. It has been augmented by post-World War II economic and social developments.     

The role of population in social development]

This essay deals with population growth, varieties in population density, and their impacts on social development from the viewpoint of Socialism. The author's main argument can be summarized as follows: 1) population growth is a kind of social production, and it is more important than the geographical environment in relation to social development. Regarding population growth, varieties in population density, and the geographical environment as conditions of equal importance in social life is debatable. 2) the changes in population development should not be limited to the changes in number alone. As science and technology are developed, the impact of changes of population quality on social development is becoming increasingly important. 3) population growth is not the major force which determines the social outlook and social system, and it directly influences social productivity. One should not think that a large population and rapid growth rate will speed up social productivity, or that a small population and a slow growth rate will slow down the development of social productivity. The author quotes Joseph Stalin to support his argument.     

Choosing the best population development goal]

Optimizing goals for controlled population growth and development through mathematical modeling has a practical value and is of important theoretical significance. An integrated model for optimizing multiple interactive targets for population development is proposed. A wide array of user-prioritized (weighted) economic indices or factors may be incorporated into this n-tuple m-dimensional model, by which complex linear and vector space computations are solved and interpreted through conventional mathematics. Although this numerical approach toward problem solving is imperfect, when properly used, the mathematical model presented in this paper is a practical and efficient means for solving multidimensional problems.     

Population: Past growth and future control

This paper is the opening chapter and demographic context of a forthcoming book onThe World's Food. It offers a summation of the Malthusian perception of food and population, an overview of population growth in history and the role of the demographic transition. The varying experiences of developing countries in bringing down the birth rate are examined and used as a basis for projecting future population growth.     

Population trends and population policy in Ceylon

The population of Ceylon has many. features in common with other Asian countries. Ceylon has, however, the distinction of an unusual wealth of demographic data. The study of many problems of general interest to Asia may thus be made for Ceylon, and the conclusions in part extended to other Asian countries.     

Issues on the strategy of population development]

The author, who works at the Population Institute of Sichuan Financial University, deals with issues regarding the strategy of population development in China and applies the population theories of Marxist and Leninist thought. The importnace of establishing a strategy of population development, in order to create an "optimum situation" for China's population in the future, specifically within the next 50-100 years is stressed. In addition to emphasizing the value of family planning and the use of birth control as a means of achieving this optimum population, it is reommeneded that the central government as well as the local governments of each province set up a strategic plan spanning 10, 20, 50, or 100 years with the aim of creating such optimum situation. The Marxist term optimum population is used to refer to a situation in which an area's population is o foptimum quality, quantity, and geographical distribution. The Marxist principle of 2 types of production are noted: production of material and production of population. General as well as local strategies are of extreme importance for the development of productive strength in China now and in the next 50-100 years.     

The historical development of China's population and its characteristics]

Population developments in China from 2100 B.C. up to 1949 are described. Fluctuations due to alternating periods of prosperity and decline are noted. In particular, the author discusses the rapid population increase that occurred from the mid-1700s to the modern era as a result of changes in taxation, the development of cultivated land, and stable economic and social conditions. Estimates are provided for all the dynasties and for selected reigns.     

On the relationship between population growth and economic development]

People are producers as well as consumers. If we look at only one side and ignore the other, we will be unable to reach impartial conclusions concerning the population problem. An obvious and close relationship exists between population growth and national economic development. If the two do not match each other, there will be numerous contradictory problems. For example, if the population grows too fast, serious social and economic problems will be created, such as a rise in the demand for living resources, an oversupply of the labor force, unemployment, and an insufficient availability of arable land, a shortage of public housing, more demand for health care and public transportation, and cultural and educational enterprises. In addition, a rapid population growth may cause more problems for the natural environment. As a result of overpopulation, the pressure on natural resources will be intensified and may therefore cause damage to the environment and create an ecological imbalance. All the above may bring very serious difficulties and obstacles to the advancement of socialism and modernized constructions. To avoid this, we must try to solve the population problem thoroughly and maintain a balanced relationship between the population growth and economic development.     

The population structure and development of the national minorities in Guangxi]

The Guangxi Autonomous Region has the largest number of minorities in China. Since 1949, great progress has been achieved in the areas of politics, the economy, culture and education, public health, science and technology, and production businesses. The living standard for the minorities as been raised, and the minority populationshows a trend toward rapid growth. As a matter of fact, the population growth for the minorities exceeds that of te Han people, and an imbalance exists in the population growth of minorities. Population growth does not match the development and production of material resources. The rapid population growth has an adverse impact on the increase in average income and an adequate supply of consumer goods for all the people. In addition, great pressure has been experienced in education, public health, and other developments at the local level. The promotion of population quality for the minorities has also been slowed because of the rapid population growth in quality. At the present time, minorities in the Guangxi area need to develop their economy with greater effort. In addition, they need to practice effective family planning measures with more enthusiasm so that they may gradually reduce the population growth rate and reach a harmony between economic growth and social development.     

Post-War trends in Maori population growth

Abstract Recent levels and trends of mortality and fertility of the minority Maori population of New Zealand are analysed. On this basis two projections for the year 1976 are presented, the first assuming a further rise in life expectation, which has already increased rapidly over the last two decades; and the other that both mortality and the consistently high fertility levels will be reduced. The conclusion is that, regardless of which projection one accepts, growth will be rapid (an increase of 60% to 70% in the period 1961-76), although the age distribution will be different at the youngest ages. Unless fertility is reduced, as in Projection 2, the dependency burden of Maori family heads will be extremely heavy.     

Post-War trends in Maori population growth

Recent levels and trends of mortality and fertility of the minority Maori population of New Zealand are analysed. On this basis two projections for the year 1976 are presented, the first assuming a further rise in life expectation, which has already increased rapidly over the last two decades; and the other that both mortality and the consistently high fertility levels will be reduced. The conclusion is that, regardless of which projection one accepts, growth will be rapid (an increase of 60% to 70% in the period 1961–76), although the age distribution will be different at the youngest ages. Unless fertility is reduced, as in Projection 2, the dependency burden of Maori family heads will be extremely heavy.     

The evolution in China's fertility and an analysis of population development]

There have been numerous projections on China's population at the end of century. Their differences are due to different estimations on the effects of fertility determinants. 2 simulation models have been developed, both from micro and macro levels, to estimate the population at the end of the century on the basis of 6 different fertility patterns. 3 possible options for fertility patterns are discussed. 1.) The 1 child per family option means that every couple has 1 child by the year 1989, the population of China will be 1.2 billion in the year 2000. Even if this is a ideal situation, it would not be a feasible policy, as the pressure from the rural population to have more than 1 child has been increasing in recent years. Nevertheless, it is still possible for urban couples to accept having only 1 child. Therefore, encouraging more people to have 1 child should be held as a basic policy. 2.) Under the option of 2 children per family with 2 or 3 years of spacing, the total population in the year 2000 would be 1.2 - 1.4 billion, which is unacceptable in terms of the development situation. 3.) Following a differential fertility policy towards urban, rural, and minority populations would mean that urban couples would have 1 child, rural couples whose first child is a girl or those who are in special circumstance would have 2 children. Minorities would have 2 or 3 children. AMong the above options, number 3 is more likely to be achieved in view of current socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic factors.     

The age composition of the urban population of China: its changes and trends]

The authors examine projected future trends in Chinese urban population characteristics using data from a 1975 survey of 400,000 individuals from over 60 cities. Changes in the relative sizes of the age groups 0-16 years, 17-55 years, and over 56 years in 1976, 1985, and 1995 are considered by sex, and the implications of these changes for urban planning are examined.     

The end of population growth in Asia

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.     

The Philippines: population trends and dilemmas

National and regional variations in population growth rates, age and sex composition, fertility and mortality measures, the numbers in the working age population and population distribution are described and their implications for future development outlined. The prospects for the next 20 years indicate a continuation and even exacerbation of regional imbalances in terms of birth, death, and migration rates with the Mindanao area turning out to be the most demographically disadvantaged of the 3 island groups. The policy makers will have to take account of current and projected numbers of people in the planning process if they wish to improve the welfare of each and every Filipino.     

Some understandings about the population development of the minorities in China]

China is a Socialist country which is composed of numerous ethnic groups. In addition to the Han people, there are 55 minorities in various parts of China. Since liberation (1949), the lives of the minorities have improved greatly. There has also been reasonable advancement in their local economic situation, cultural and educational establishments, and health care, and the population growth among ethnic minorities has also increased rapidly. At the present time, the rate of population growth among the minorities is extremely high, and the age structure of the minority population is young. The custom of early marriage and having children at a young age is still popular. The levels of economic development, cultural and educational establishments and medical and health care are still too low to satisfy current needs of the local people. Within a short period of time, population growth among the minorities may reach among climax, and the problem of overpopulation may become more serious. This new trend is not encouraging for the economic and cultural development of the minority people. In order to protect the economic situation of the minority population, various rules and regulations should be established according to local situations, and work in family planning and birth control is also urgently needed for the minorities.     

Population and sustainable development: Distinguishing fact and preference concerning the future human population and environment

The relation of population, environment and economic growth is controversial, with some considering that growth comes at an intolerable expense to the environment, others that the damage to the environment is slight and in any case so far in the future that it does not matter. Scientific evidence on the subject is not the only basis on which people choose sides; major factors are preference for present enjoyment and welfare as against the welfare of children and grandchildren, and the life of cities as against the countryside. The visibility of damage to the environment will sooner or later convince everyone that something must be done. For we can picture a declining marginal enjoyment of goods, and a rising marginal visible damage, two curves that are sure to meet sooner or later, and when they do the public will insist on drastic measures for repair being financed and undertaken. The greater the delay the more expensive the repairs. Beyond cost, the question is whether adequate measures of repair and prevention of further damage will be undertaken before it is too late.