Decision to Emigrate amongst the Youth in Lebanon

This article studies the determinants of youth emigration decisions, which is considered one of the main causes of ‘Brain Drain’ in Arab Mediterranean Countries (AMCs). We focus on the case of Lebanon using a unique dataset covering young people aged 15 to 29 from the year 2016. The aim of the article is to identify the profile of youth's propensity to emigrate from Lebanon. The empirical results indicate that youth from non‐wealthy backgrounds living in smaller dwellings have a higher propensity to emigrate. It is also found that being male and unemployed has a positive effect on migration. Moreover, university education promotes the willingness to emigrate; while residents of poor regions are more likely to express such willingness. Finally, the article provides some insights for policymakers.     

The impact of the Arab Spring on democracy and development in the MENA region

In evaluating the consequences of the Arab Spring 8 years later, this paper not only focuses on the short‐term consequences of the uprisings that swept through a number of countries in the Middle East and North African region but also analyzes the long‐term prospects for democratization and development in the MENA region. The impact of the Arab Spring, despite its promises and the expectations of the rest of the world, has been dismal. While only Tunisia made a successful transition to a democratic polity with a constitution guaranteeing the basic rights of the people, the rest of the Arab Spring countries remain in the grip of the authoritarian rule, and countries such as Syria, Libya, and Yemen have been degenerated into bloody civil wars with dwindling hope of peace and freedom. On economic front, the growth has been tardy, showing little difference with countries that were unaffected by the Arab Spring. Yet, the paper concludes, echoing historian Eric Hobsbawm's view, that revolutionary outcomes need not be judged as failure too quickly as they are likely to be partial success in the long term. The impact may be observed in the area of social opening, newer class alliances, and the emergence of a less rapacious, reformed, hybrid authoritarianism.     

The statistical properties of the networks of emigrants: the Ecuadorian case

This article shows that the threshold model appropriately analysed can explain the emigration process as a consequence of the network features, where the willingness to emigrate depends on the personal and household conditions borne by the emigrant. In such a case, the emigration process can be defined in terms of a Pólya schema, and the emigration rate converges almost surely to a random variable with a beta distribution, which fully characterizes the network (assimilation, integration, separation or marginalization). The model is applied to Ecuador, which has experienced an unprecedented wave of emigration since 1998. We show that, despite the massive exodus, the process does not constitute a diaspora, because Ecuadorians do not interact appropriately with natives.     

The impact of emigration on national development in the Arab region: the case of the Yemen Arab Republic

"The focus of this article is the impact of emigration on national development in labor sending countries experiencing wide-scale emigration, the main contention being that, due to the characteristics of contemporary labor movements among Arab countries, there obtains a contradiction between short term benefits and long term adverse effects. The article briefly defines development, then presents empirical evidence from the Yemen Arab Republic of the negative impact of labor emigration."     

The role of ethnic relations and education systems in migration from Southeast Asia to Australia

"After a brief discussion of the geographical, cultural, and historical characteristics of Southeast Asia [and Hong Kong], a review is provided of the evolution of Australian immigration policy which, in our view, is a strong pull factor. This is followed by stock and flow analyses of Asian-born residents in Australia. The motivations for emigration in countries which exhibit substantial emigration rates are considered next and the article ends with the conclusion that demand factors and social networks play a decisive role in the decision to emigrate." Factors affecting migration significantly include political conditions and ethnic relations in countries of origin, and educational and career opportunities in the country of destination.     

Local Solidarities: How the Arab Spring Protests Started

Coming as a surprise to most observers and following the self‐immolation of a street vendor in a remote town of central Tunisia, the Jasmine Revolution of 2010–2011, the first uprising of the Arab Spring, has often been seen as a success story for digital communication through widespread use of social media. We suggest that this applied to the later phase of the protests in Tunisia but not to the initial phase, which occurred in local areas in impoverished and marginalized regions with highly limited access to the Internet. The initial phase lasted a full 10 days before the protests reached major cities where social media operated. Building on Tilly's concept of trust network, we offer the concept of local solidarities as key to the beginning of the Arab Spring uprisings and as encompassing spatial proximity, shared marginalized status, and kinship, all of which combined to serve as a basis for trust and collective action.     

Emigration from China: A Sending Country Perspective

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the policies pursued by the People's Republic of China (PRC) regarding the emigration of Chinese nationals. Most of the available literature on migration management has focused on receiving countries. With a few exceptions, little attention has been directed at migration management policies pursued in countries of origin. In the case of the PRC, policies regarding overseas Chinese have been fairly well documented and researched, but very little has been written about how the Chinese authorities manage ongoing emigration flows. This gap becomes particularly salient as the importance of the “partnership with the countries of origin” in devising migration policies is being increasingly acknowledged by receiving countries in Europe (Commission of the European Communities, 2000). Over the last 20 years, there have been significant changes in the Chinese Government's policies and perspectives on emigration. But, just like most other governments, the Chinese authorities do not have a single blanket policy covering all categories of emigrants. Emigration is normally managed on a case‐by‐case basis and the Government's attitude toward the same type of emigration may vary depending on different cases and circumstances. Because of this, this article examines China's major emigration‐related policy spheres one by one. Specifically, six issues will be discussed: (1) exit control; (2) diaspora policy; (3) student migration; (4) labour export; (5) regulations on emigration agencies and, finally (6) the Government's response to human smuggling. This article shows both the coherence and the fragmentation in China's policies toward emigration. The coherence is due to the fact that all the policies are inherently linked to China's overall economic and social development strategy. The emigration management regime is sometimes fragmented partly because emigration consists of different streams and is handled by different Government departments, partly because some emigration issues (such as regulations on emigration agents) are very new for the Chinese Government and the authorities are still exploring them. Overall, the Chinese authorities increasingly see emigration as a means to enhance China's integration to the world and are keen to avoid conflicts with the international community over migration issues. At the same time, China's emigration policies need to be more balanced, in particular, the emigration of unskilled labour should be given more priority.     

阿拉伯国家社会转型中经济发展面临的挑战

能源在阿拉伯世界经济社会发展中具有举足轻重的地位和作用,影响并形成了阿拉伯国家独特的经济社会结构和发展道路。然而,阿拉伯世界以能源为主的社会经济发展模式凸显了资源导向增长的经典困境,阿拉伯产油国经济和社会发展高度依赖石油和天然气,工业和经济结构单一,经济多元化水平低下。石油财富未能从根本上改变阿拉伯国家社会经济发展成就的有限性,社会经济发展滞后,贫困、失业和社会不公三大问题,凸显了阿拉伯世界以能源为主的社会经济发展模式的弊端和深层危机。“阿拉伯之春”对社会经济包容性增长的强烈要求,对以能源为主的阿拉伯国家社会经济发展模式提出了严重挑战。阿拉伯世界的社会稳定将是一个长期和艰难的过程,最终取决于阿拉伯国家的社会经济发展水平。     

Prior reputation and the transition from image repair to image makeover: The case of Hosni Mubarak

Through an analysis of Hosni Mubarak's speeches made over the course of the Arab Spring, this study examined Mubarak's response to criticism about his role in the crisis and the resultant attempt to repair his image. The study thereby draws attention to the image repair strategies of an individual with a negative prior reputation in a crisis. Data indicate that Mubarak's negative prior reputation resulted in his attempting not just an image repair as image repair discourse theory would suggest but rather a more complex image makeover. The cultural significance of his rhetorical choices and the implications for theory are discussed.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMICS OF THE ARAB SPRING

There were large differences in the responses of Arab dictators to the Arab Spring protests. To understand these differences, I present a stylized model of how a dictator responds to mass protests for democratization in a polarized country with two ethnic or religious groups. In this model, the dictator's response crucially depends on oil revenues and his affiliation to either the majority or the minority group. I document that the model's predictions are consistent with the observed differences in the Arab dictators' responses. Hence, ethnic politics and religious divides may play an important role in political transitions and regime changes. (JEL D72, D74)     

Political Stability After the Arab Spring

The task to reshape governments in the countries confronted with the Arab Spring prompts the question whether there are necessary conditions to realize a stable society that simultaneously seeks to eliminate the elements that have led to the uprisings. Acknowledging some constitutional rights seems indispensable in such a process. I argue that such a state of affairs is indeed the case, at least now that the “old” justifications to differentiate between people do not suffice anymore. That is not to say that the countries involved will have identical laws in each respect, but merely that a common basis has to be realized, manifested in political and legal equality, so this given does not derogate from the fact that each country's specific legislation needs to be shaped in the light of its own history. Such a basis has no “moral” character, but is a necessary condition to prevent sedition.     

Best Practices to Reduce Migration Pressures

Are there best practices to foster economic development, reduce population growth, and protect the environment in source countries of unauthorized migration, in a manner that reduces emigration pressures and redirects migration towards legal channels? This paper outlines cooperative actions that can be undertaken by both source and receiving countries to better manage the movements of people over national borders. There are two broad approaches to foster wanted migration and to reduce unwanted migration. First, maximize migration’s payoffs by ensuring that the 3 Rs of recruitment, remittances, and returns foster economic and job growth in emigration areas. Second, make emigration unnecessary by adapting trade, investment and aid policies, and programmes that accelerate economic development and thus make it unnecessary for people to emigrate for jobs and wages. Most of the changes needed for stay–at–home development must occur in emigration areas, but immigration areas can cooperate in the management of immigration, guest workers, and students, as well as in promoting freer trade and investment, and in targeting aid funds. In a globalizing world, selective immigration policies may have important development impacts, as with immigration country policies toward students, and workers in particular occupations, such as nurses and computer programmers, as well as with mutual recognition of occupational licenses and professional credentials. Trade policies affecting migration are also important, such as trade in services and laws regulating contracts between firms in different countries that allow the entry of lower wage workers as part of the contract. opening channels for legal migration can deter irregular migration.     

Emigration dynamics in the Arab region. IOM / UNFPA workshop, 7-8 October 1996, Geneva,Switzerland

This paper describes the four research monographs on emigration that were presented at the December 1995 Regional Workshop in the Arab Region. The workshop was an exchange of views and discussion of policy implications of emigration. Monographs were presented by Dr. Mayar Farrag on emigration in Egypt, Professor Nadji Safir on migration in the Maghreb, Dr. Setenay Shami on emigration dynamics in Jordan, and Dr. Lynn Evans on behalf of Dr. Ivy Papps on migration in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Dr. Farrag identified three periods of migration. During the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, migrants were officially encouraged by Egypt to fill education positions. During the 1970s, many migrants left for the oil-producing countries on a temporary basis. Since the mid-1980s, the influences on Egyptian migration have been the economic recession and oil prices in the Gulf states, the completion of infrastructure projects in most Gulf states, and the replacement of foreign labor with nationals. Dr. Farrag recommended improving the migrants' skills in English and technology in order to maintain a dominant flow of temporary migrants to the Gulf region. Professor Safir reported that persons from the Maghreb region (Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco) migrated to France before independence and subsequently to West Germany and the Benelux countries. Algeria had the highest migration potential, and Morocco had the highest migration. Morocco had established networks in destination countries, high population growth rates, and high unemployment. Maghreb countries are receiving migrants from the south. Professor Safir recommended regional integration. Dr. Shami separated step migration from stepwise migration, which complicates push-pull theories. Dr. Papps argued that use of foreign labor may not be the best option for development, and that sending countries should be more aware of skill needs in GCC countries.     

Lineages of the Islamic State: An International Historical Sociology of State (De-)Formation in Iraq

Existing accounts of the Islamic State (IS) tend to rely on orientalist and technicist assumptions and hence insufficiently sensitive to the historical, sociological, and international conditions of the possibility of IS. The present article provides an alternative account through a conjunctural analysis that is anchored in an international historical sociology of modern Iraq informed by Leon Trotsky's idea of ‘uneven and combined development’. It foregrounds the concatenation of Iraq's contradictory (post-)colonial nation-state formation with the neoliberal conjuncture of 1990-2014. It shows that the former process involved the tension-prone fusion of governing institutions of the modern state and the intermittent but steady reproduction, valorization, and politicization of supra-national (religious-sectarian) and sub-national (ethno-tribal) collective identities, which subverted the emergence of an Iraqi nation. The international sanctions regime of the 1990s transformed sectarian and tribal difference into communitarian tension by fatally undermining the integrative efficacy of the Ba’ath party's authoritarian welfare-state. Concurrently, the neo-liberal demolition of the post-colonial authoritarian welfare states in the region gave rise to the Arab Spring revolutions. The Arab Spring however elicited a successful authoritarian counter-revolution that eliminated secular-nationalist forms of oppositional politics. This illiberal neoliberalisation of the region's political economy valorised the religionisation of the domestic effects of the 2003 US-led destruction of the Iraqi state and its reconstruction on a majoritarian basis favouring the Shi’as and hence transforming sectarian tension into sectarian conflict culminating in IS. Thus, IS is, the paper demonstrates, the result of neither an internal cultural pathology nor sheerly external forces. Rather, it is the novel product of an utterly historical congealment of the intrinsically interactive and multilinear dynamics of socio-political change.     

Kosovo – Winning its Independence but Losing its People? Recent Evidence on Emigration Intentions and Preparedness to Migrate

Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in February 2008, but substantial proportions of its population are expressing their lack of confidence by preparing to emigrate. In this paper, we present evidence from a customized post‐independence survey (1,367 face‐to face interviews) on emigration intentions in Kosovo, carried out in June 2008. Thirty per cent of the respondents from the Albanian‐speaking majority have taken concrete steps to move abroad, and emigration intentions have again risen to their pre‐independence peak. Strikingly, it is the better educated and those with higher incomes that are more likely to exit. Ethnic Serbs (the largest minority group) are less likely to emigrate than Kosovo’s ethnic majority.     

Managing international migration in developing countries

IOM's research project on emigration dynamics in developing countries, launched in 1993, brought together teams of researchers in four regions of the developing world: Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia; the Arab region; and Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. The article reports the findings of team members as reported to, and discussed by, 180 participants, including those from 57 governments, at IOM's twelfth Migration Seminar held in Geneva during April 1997.
The research had been carried out under a common conceptual framework which addressed emigration dynamics through changing economic, demographic, political and ecological circumstances in each country or subregion; the role of networks already established between persons in sending and receiving countries; and the nature of entry restrictions imposed by receiving countries.
A central objective of the research was to try and measure interaction between the variables in specific country and subregional situations and, as far as possible, provide results that could assist policy makers in both developing and developed countries. This objective had been facilitated by workshops held in each region during 1995–96 comprising researchers, officials and policy makers.
Although economic, demographic, political and ecological circumstances varied considerably between countries in the four regions, conference delegates agreed that the approach adopted by the researchers, including contact with officials and policy makers, had provided new insights into the emigration dynamics process.
Recommendations made during conference discussions included the need to establish an effective system of migration information exchange between and across regions; that on the basis of results achieved so far research on emigration dynamics should be continued and broadened; and that there should be sustained dialogue between policy makers, officials, researchers and NGOs.     

The Arab Spring and Revolutionary Theory: An Intervention in a Debate

The so-called Arab Spring of the 2010s that toppled six dictators has spurred productive debates about the character of these political happenings and their implications for revolutionary theory broadly. One such debate that appeared recently on the pages of Historical Sociology questions whether or not we are moving into a fifth-generation revolutionary theory. This essay is an attempt to partake in this conversation, not only because my work is under discussion but because I wish to engage with some of the key arguments in the debate to clarify some misunderstandings and suggest ways that the Arab Spring allows for a new thinking about revolution and revolutionary theory. Whether or not new perspectives have emerged may be contested, but there is surely a need for them.     

Youth mobilisations and political generations: young activists in political change movements during and since the twentieth century

This paper uses political generations theory to examine the main youth mobilisations during and since the twentieth century: pre-1939 fascist and communist movements; the student movements of the 1960s and 70s; movements that challenged colonial and neo-colonial rulers in less developed countries and young people's involvement in the revolutions that saw the end of communism in East-Central and South-East Europe in 1989. Conclusions from this review of the past are used in considering the likely significance of subsequent outbursts of political activism among young people: the ‘colour revolutions’ and other instances of youth mobilisation in former Soviet republics and other ex-communist countries; the Arab Spring and the series of movements that have challenged neo-liberalism – Anti-Globalisation, the Indignados and the Occupy movements. The paper notes that youth mobilisations that have led to the formation of new political generations that have changed their countries' politics then transformed the countries have typically extended over several decades, that initially youthful leaders have sometimes been middle-aged or older before achieving political power and that many of their actions on achieving power have been at variance with their youthful ideals. In conclusion, it is argued that it is still too early to tell whether any of the recent youth mobilisations signal the formation of new political generations.     

The Arab Spring for Women? Representations of Women in Middle East Politics in 2011

This article explores the complex, liminal, and difficult space in which stories of women in “the Arab Spring” were wielded as parts of political narratives of gender, race, class, religion, democracy, and Westernization in Western media as the Arab Spring unfolded. It examines those stories by using the tools of postcolonial feminism. After briefly describing what is meant by (gender and) the Arab Spring, the article outlines a method for evaluating the significations of the media narratives surrounding it. We find two dissonant narratives (of gender as emancipatory and of gender as problematic) and ask what assumptions about gender (and sex and race and culture) have to be made to produce these particular representations. We argue that the dissonant narratives have in common using the situation of women as a barometer for the success of Westernization, liberalization, and democratization. The article concludes by exploring the implications of these findings.     

The emigration potential of Jews in the former Soviet Union

Results are presented from a 1993 survey conducted in Moscow, Kiev, and Minsk, involving 1,000 Jews and their potential for emigration. The results indicate that, although nearly all Jews would emigrate if conditions worsened significantly, 57% of those interviewed did not currently plan to emigrate, 14% were undecided, and 29% planned to leave. Of those planning to leave, about half hoped to go to the United States, and only one-quarter planned to go to Israel.