A census of one billion people (summary)]

The national census which was conducted in 1982 has provided reliable population data for formulating policies and plans in China's modernization process. A great deal of experience has been acquired from this census. (1) The census was based upon China's practical situation and a unique system of methods suitable to China's situation was used. (2) Census workers have found appropriate methods through practical experience and also learned the skill of using computers in handling census data. (3) The general public was very cooperative and worked closely with the leadership and professional cadres. (4) Measures were taken to ensure the quantity and quality of the census work so that the goal of promoting the data's quantity and quality could be reached. (5) The spirit of patriotism was developed, and the people realized that the national census is a necessary measure to be taken for China's construction and modernization. The work of the 1982 national census was successful. The unfinished work which lies ahead is still very heavy. The census should keep on learning from the successful experience of foreign countries and try to overcome difficulties so that the work on China's population statistics may be pushed forward.     

The world's biggest census

The purpose of the 3rd national population census, taken 18 years after "New China's" 2nd census, was to ascertain accurate population figures for China and the spatial population distribution in order to carry out socialist modernization, improve the people's material and cultural lives, and draw up a population policy and program in light of China's actual conditions. The census questionnaire contained 19 items, including 13 for individuals; and 6 items about the household. Preparations for the census began at the end of 1979 even though the census would not begin until July 1, 1982. The preparatory stage included: drafting the Census Statute; conducting pilot censuses in certain areas; rectifying household registration; installing computers; training computer technicians; convening national census work conference and similar conferences at various levels; selecting and training field census workers; printing census forms; and conducting widespread publicity. Pilot censuses were conducted at central, provincial, and county levels in order to draw useful experience for the nationwide census. A large number of census workers were selected and trained. Among them were about a million staff members working in census offices at various levels, 1000 computer technical personnel, 4000 data entry personnel, 100,000 coders, and 1 million census supervisors. 8 million cadres and volunteers at the grassroots actively helped conduct the census. Enumeration and verification was completed between July 1 and July 15, 1982. The postenumeration check on a sample basis showed only a net overcount of 0.15/1000 with an overcount of 0.71/1000 and an undercount of 0.56/1000. All levels of the government, the Communist Party, Trade Unions, and Women's Federations were mobilized to take part in the census, and all mass media were utilized. All census information will be finally tabulated by computers before the end of 1984, and census reports will be compiled and submitted to the State Council for examination before they are published.     

The main contents and characteristics of the third national population census]

The Chinese State Council publicized rules and regulations for the 3rd national population census on February 19, 1982. In 28 chapters, this document outlined the leadership organization, target of the census, time and space of the census, performance evaluation, and the transaction and publication of the data collected. 1 special feature of this census is the connection between the need for current modernized construction and possible conditions available. Altogether there are 19 items in this census, while the last census had only 9 items. Among the newly added items are: 1) those concerning economic characteristics, 2) those on population growth, and 3) those on the household condition of the constant population. Another special feature of the 3rd national population census is the combination of China's own working experience in population and that of foreign countries. In the skills of modernized calculation, new experience from foreign countries has been fully utilized. The scientific method has been used to design the census form, a sample examination, the coding of collected data, and data registration through the use of computers. The 3rd national population census has been successful for 3 main reasons: 1) extensive support from the general public, 2) strict organization and hard work, and 3) modernized computers used in calculation.     

Evaluation of the results of China's 1982 population census and the problems raised by the IUSSP Florence Conference]

The author discusses the evaluation by IUSSP members of China's 1982 population census and outlines questions raised at the 1985 conference in Florence. While the quality of the census data was generally favorably assessed by those attending the workshop, the following points were made: The population size, obtained by summing all age groups, is inconsistent with the total population recorded in the census; fertility, mortality, and national growth rates for the Chinese population over the years are different in various official publications; and the sex ratio, 1.08:1 in 1981, may be caused by underreporting.     

中国人口终身迁移状况分析

“出生地”是用来收集人口迁移信息最常用的调查项目之一。中国以往的人口普查中一直缺少这一调查项目 ,这使得利用出生地资料对人口迁移状况进行分析在国内一直是个空白。中国第五次人口普查在中国人口普查史上首次调查了人口的出生地信息。本文主要根据第五次人口普查提供的出生地资料 ,对中国各省人口的终身迁移水平、流向以及不同年龄人口的终身迁移状况进行了初步分析。     

[Population age structure and sex ratio in 1982].]

While China's 1982 population census provides total population size and age and sex distribution data, the data does not include military personnel. A few years after the census, the Population Census Office of the State Council and the Population Division of the State Statistics Bureau announced the numbers for military personnel by five-year age group as well as a total of 4,230,000. This information provides reliable data for more precise analysis of age and sex distribution in China.     

1990 censuses to increase use of automation

This article summarizes information from selected reports presented at the 12th Population Census Conference. Ward reports that plans for the 1990 census in many countries of Asia and the Pacific call for increased use of automation, with applications ranging from the use of computer-generated maps of enumeration areas and optical mark readers for data processing to desktop publishing and electronic mail for disseminating the results. Recent advances in automation offer opportunities for improved accuracy and speed of census operations while reducing the need for clerical personnel. Most of the technologies discussed at the 12th Population Census are designed to make the planning, editing, processing, analysis, and publication of census data more reliable and efficient. However, technology alone cannot overcome high rates of illiteracy that preclude having respondents complete the census forms themselves. But it enables even China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan - the countries with huge population and limited financial resources - to make significant improvements in their forthcoming censuses.     

Two hundred years and counting: the 1990 census

On April 1, 1990, the US will take a national census, marking 200 years of census taking in America. A national census has been taken every 10 years in the US since 1790. Mandated by the US Constitution, the decennial census is the basis for reapportionment of the House of Representatives. California, Texas, and Florida are expected to gain the most Congressional seats following the 1990 Census, reflecting above-average population growth in these states. The census also provides important information about the characteristics of the American people, and a growing number of federal, state and local government programs, private corporations, and community agencies use census data. Each census provides a portrait of America, and over the decades these portraits have revealed much about how our country has changed as we have grown from a young agrarian nation of about 4 million people clustered along the Eastern seaboard to a complex post-industrial society of nearly 250 million spread across the continent and beyond. Techniques for taking the census have steadily improved over the past 2 centuries. The 1990 Census will rely heavily on computerization in all its aspects, including field operations, processing, geography, data tabulations, and products. It is likely to be the most accurate census in our history. The 1990 Census is already the subject of a lawsuit, however, charging that minority groups will be counted less completely than the white population. A series of similar lawsuits followed the 1980 Census, but all were unsuccessful. This Bulletin discusses the Census Bureau's plans for taking the 1990 Census, looks back on 200 years of census taking in America, and details such key aspects of the 1990 Census as the questionnaire, census geography and data dissemination plans, census undercount and the homeless.     

The geography and demography of Indigenous temporary mobility: an analysis of the 2006 census snapshot

Local area population counts and estimates are crucial inputs into policy planning and processes. However, population mobility in general, as well as large numbers of visitors to particular areas, place additional demands on resources and those providing essential services. The literature identifies a pressing need for standardized quantitative measures of the volume, frequency and flows of Indigenous temporary mobility and comparable spatial scales. This paper presents an analysis of census data as it relates to Indigenous temporary mobility, and explores the spatial and demographic complexities involved. While the census remains the only consistent and nationally comprehensive data set on Indigenous temporary mobility that provides important insights, the overall findings from this analysis suggest that it remains a relatively blunt instrument in the task of identifying all the factors in Indigenous temporary movement. We conclude that researchers, policy makers and Indigenous populations must seek and develop additional data sources from which the drivers and dynamics of Indigenous temporary mobility and residency patterns may be identified.     

Implementation of China's population policy

On July 1, 1982 China's 3rd national population census reported the population of the 29 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions on the mainland at 1,008,175,288, showing a net increase of 460,000,000 or 84% over the 548,000,000 recorded at the end of 1949. At this time China's population is about 1/4 of the world. Its population policy must conform to her national conditions and will be successful only to the extent that it does so. Discussion focuses on the main features of China's population policy. In 1953 the State Council instructed the Ministry of Health to support birth control by providing contraceptives. It also ratified provisions concerning contraception and induced abortions. In 1962 the State Council issued "Instructions on Conscientious Advocacy of Family Planning." China not only advocates and publicized family planning but also takes specific measures. Special administrative organizations were established in 1964 to oversee scientific research, production, and supply of contraceptives and to provide couples of childbearing age with free contraceptives. An all round attack on family planning work in 1966 led to unchecked childbirth resulting in rapid population growth. In 1971 Premier Zhou Enlai reiterated the importance of population control in 1971 and asked that it be incorporated into the 4th Five Year Plan for the development of the national economy. Family planning was incorporated into the Constitution in 1978. China's 20 years of experiences with family planning suggest that a country's population policy becomes effective only with repeated efforts. The 10-year period of turmoil undermined the enforcement of the population policy. Recently the State Family Planning Commission organized a nationwide fertility survey which indicated tremendous successes for China's population control drive. The total fertility rate dropped from 5.29 in the 1950s to 2.63 in the 1980s. The population census shows that the momentum of China's population growth cannot be checked without strict measures because the population is characterized by a huge base figure, a young age composition, and a fertility rate much higher than a population replacement level. China's population policy is formulated in line with her national conditions. Specific provisions for family planning reflect different ways to deal with different people.     

Wuxi's pilot population census has laid the foundation for carrying out the Third National Population Census]

In order to lay the foundation for the third national population census, a pilot population census was conducted in Wuxi city, Jiangsu Province in 1980. One goal of this pilot population census was to examine and revise the rules and regulations for the population census. The second goal was to collect practical experience in a population census at a local level, and the third goal was to train a group of working personnel for the national population census. Results from this local population census include information on characteristics of the population, households, and society in general, cultural and educational levels, the economic situation for the local population, marital status, child-bearing status, and the natural mobility of the population. Both the quality and quantity of this pilot population census are excellent. Success is due to an effective and healthy leadership, detailed and well-designed rules and regulations and working principles, support and cooperation from the general public, well-trained working personnel, and suitable use of modern scientific methods for the census.     

Characteristics of the statute of China's population census in 1982]

China's 1982 census is described. The purpose was to contribute to the modernization of socialism. It was based on current conditions in China and conducted under government supervision using the international experience of the US, Canada, the Philippines, and Japan and with UN assistance for census sampling methods and computer data processing techniques. The census was taken with a strong emphasis on procedural quality control. Its target was Chinese citizens living in China and its territories; each individual was to be registered in his own domicile. The 1982 census listed 19 category items, over twice as many as the 1953 and 1964 censuses. Added to the basic information items of name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, ethnic origin, and education, were new items including employment, marital status, total number of births, number of children still living, and number of births, deaths and age at death in the previous year. The new categories instituted progressive approaches such as recording children of unwed mothers; and in education, recognizing experience level of older workers having little formal education but considerable practical expertise, including temporary employees in employment categories. Major difficulties were encountered in the data collection process: wide differences in education level among residents of the various geographical locations; registration of permanent residents using the household registration; registration of the transient population and people living on boats; determining employment classifications; and rendering the data suitable for data processing. However, the census was performed scientifically; census-takers interviewed each family and individual, and data was meticulously collected, calculated, and processed twice.     

Characteristics of age composition of China's population]

The age composition of Chinese population is analyzed via data collected in the 1982 census, which has been the basis for planning the social and economic life of 1 billion people. The census reflected complete population age composition, by birth, mortality and growth rates, from the time of the Liberation in 1949. The 10% sample, based on the national age composition, did not include the 4,240,000 people in military service which, as .42% of the total population, did not constitute a large differential. The population has grown rapidly since 1949. A few years before and after 1960, growth was reduced due to economic conditions, but the overall growth trend remained unchanged. The census showed that since 1970, growth has experienced a downturn, but the decrease was not related to the sudden drop before and after 1960. The census also showed China's population had changed from 1964's primarily young population to an adult population, but the process of population aging is only beginning, with a still relatively young population. China's population is not a stable one. This increase and decrease were greatly influenced by the changes in social and economic conditions. The disparity in age composition caused by these changes has created problems in social life, education, employment, marriage, housing, health, transportation, and cultural facilities. There are large differences in age composition between regions and ethnic groups. The decreases in birth and growth rate of the eastern coastal provinces were more rapid than those of the southwest and northwest regions. The age composition of minority nationalities is considerably younger than the Han people. Factors that influenced age composition characteristics included reduction of the neonatal mortality rate, the rises and falls of economic development, and the work in planned fertility.     

The use of sampling in conjunction with population censuses

In Asia and the Pacific, the practice of governments is increasingly to collect information on their populations' size, age and sex composition, geographic distribution, and certain other basic demographic and socioeconomic characteristics on the basis of a complete (100%) enumeration, and to supplement this basic information by collecting information on a larger range of variables on a sample basis. The additional information, which is gathered as part of the census operation, may be related to such population characteristics as migration, employment, fertility, and health. A complete census is generally indispensable for obtaining information about small domains, and also for obtaining politically important data, which must be seen to be free from sampling variability. A complete census is typically confined to obtaining a detailed picture of the number and basic structural characteristics of the entire population, with as much detail as possible about local areas. Sample surveys can quickly obtain a wider variety of more complex data. Sampling applications for the census include 1) using sampling in the design and control of census operations, such as in planning, testing, controlling, and evaluating the census; 2) using sample enumeration to supplement items covered in the complete census; 3) sampling the census results for processing to make the results available more quickly and at lower cost; and 4) extracting samples of microlevel files of detailed census data so as to facilitate dissemination of primary data.     

广州市人口空间分布变动与郊区化研究——兼与北京、上海的比较

利用第三、四、五次人口普查资料,对广州市人口的空间分布变动进行了详细的分析。结果表明自1980年代以来,广州一直处于城市化和郊区化并存的阶段,一方面大量外来人口的进入使都市区的总人口急剧增加,另一方面从1990年代起中心城区的人口出现较明显的郊区化现象。但与北京、上海相比,广州人口郊区化进程显得较为迟缓,其主要原因是自然条件的限制、行政区划的制约和城市空间发展政策的影响。     

基于“六普”数据的我国人口流动与分布分析

第六次全国人口普查已顺利结束,相关快速汇总数据也已经公布。依据全国和各省最新发布的主要数据公报,对我国人口流动和人口分布状况进行了分析。分析表明:人口流动已成为我国人口普查关注的焦点,不仅首次及时地在全国人口普查公报中发布了人口流动数据,而且第一次披露了市内人户分离人口数据;人口流动对人口的地区分布和城乡分布产生重要影响,十年来我国人口流动方向与人口地区分布变化是一致的,人口迁移流动对我国城镇人口增长的贡献率达到65.36%,是我国城镇化发展最主要的驱动力。     

[A simplification of the iteration method of estimating China's midyear population for 1981].]

An iteration method is used to estimate China's 1981 midyear population, given census data on births and deaths in 1981 and midyear population for 1982. The author mathematically proves the convergence of the iteration method and outlines a simplified method, which is shown to be as accurate as the conventional iteration method.     

近10年来上海市人口变化特征与问题分析

人口变化特征和问题对区域经济社会发展有着重要影响。结合第六次全国人口普查数据和第五次全国人口普查数据,深入分析了上海市10年来人口变化主要特征,并在此基础上探讨了上海市人口数量、结构、分布等方面存在的主要问题,并针对问题提出了一些措施和建议。     

计划生育政策调整对我国人口数量、结构及其影响的研究--以深圳市为例

针对二胎政策问题,本文收集全国人口普查数据,建立实时动态人口预测模型,通过差分方程的建模和分析,有效预测人口年龄变化趋势,验证了人口新政策的提出是时代发展的趋势。本文运用灰色系统理论分析法,通过关联分析和构建模型分析人口的性别比数据,从而进行人口相关的预测和决策。根据威布尔分布理论预测我国未来几十年的生育率,并进一步预测青年、少年、老年人口比重的变化趋势。最后以深圳市为例,通过“单独二胎”以及延迟退休年龄、城镇化发展等方案的实施,讨论调整计划生育政策后,未来深圳市人口规模、人口结构以及劳动力市场就业和养老方面的变化。     

The organization of the one percent National Sample Survey of Fertility and its findings]

In September of 1982, a national sample survey of fertility was conducted. A total of 70,000 professional personnel in family planning and manpower in related fields were engaged in this survey. They conducted a comprehensive survey at 815 sample points in 28 different provinces, cities, and autonomous regions all over the country. Their findings can be summarized as follows: (1) A more advanced understanding of the rules of China's population reproduction, (2) supplemental information on births and marital status which was not collected fully in the national census, (3) scientific analysis of the results in family planning during the past 10 or more years, and indication of a correct way for scientific management in family planning work from now on, and (4) a large number of professsional cadres were trained and developed in this sample survey to function effectively in the field of family planning in the future.