现代性视野中的专家系统

专家系统日益成为现代社会的重要动力机制之一,人们在普遍主义的信任基础上借助专家系统扩展自己能力、规避自己的风险。但是,专家系统也存在和制造了诸多问题。对于这些问题的解答,通过体制内的改良和体制外的造反是不够的,甚至是危险的。我们需要涵盖这两者的更大的社会制度容器——社会的反思监控系统。     

Experience in public goods experiments

Theory and Decision - Using information on students’ past participation in economic experiments, we analyze whether behavior in public goods games is affected by experience (participation in...     

Experts as researchers and policy actors: Czech pension reform

Is it possible to act simultaneously as an expert and co-policymaker without breaking the rules for knowledge-based social policies? Trying to answer this question, I recap my experience as Chairman of the Czech Government-established Expert Committee on Pension Reform in 2013–2017. I reflected on it analysing and advising on the path of the Czech pension reform. Applying theories of actor-centred and discursive institutionalism, I analysed the rich empirical evidence based on the content of manyfold actors’ discourses. My involvement gave me a chance to participatorily observe the behaviour of formal and informal actors and thus learn more about their ideological positions, communication and negotiation strategies, and final embodiments of these disputes in policy proposals and acts. I analysed the roles of experts as moderators of discourse, analysts, and policy actors themselves. Following this experience, I offer some tentative conclusions for further discussion.     

Limitations of methodological experiments

The extent to which empirical results can lead to methodological conclusions is investigated. No specific limitations are found to be involved in drawing conclusions on the plausibility of an artifact (Campbell).Two other types of meta-research do appear to be problematic: (a) empirically based inferences on the kind of roles adopted by subjects with respect to the experiment (Weber and Cook) are tenuous, since the role-playing may well enter into the meta-research itself; (b) a similar intricacy arises with research on experimenter expectancy effects (Rosenthal). Possible ways of correcting for artifacts in meta-research, and the potential threat to scientific discourse that is associated with these corrections, are discussed.     

Psychosocial Care in Nursing Homes in the Era of the MDS 3.0: Perspectives of the Experts

Meeting psychosocial needs of nursing home residents is increasingly regarded as a critical component of care, and the nationally-mandated nursing home care screening instrument— the Minimum Data Set (MDS) 3.0—was modified and implemented in 2010 to promote better assessment of psychosocial needs and health. Recognizing the importance of psychosocial well-being among nursing home residents, and the promise of MDS 3.0 for improving psychosocial care, this article reports recommendations derived from a conference of stakeholders representing diverse disciplines and organizations regarding next steps following MDS 3.0 screening. Results relate to seven areas of psychosocial care and address cross-cutting recommendations to improve psychosocial care.     

Exporting managed care: Asian experiments

Abstract   Following managed care saturation in the US market, and because of limited prospects in Europe, managed care made some headway in Latin America and Southeast Asia. The following paper compares a general concept, "managed care", across countries, and shows that it has gained acceptance in certain territories (e.g. Hong Kong, the Philippines), but not in others. Managed care is defined as processes or techniques used by any entity that delivers, administers and/or assumes risk for health services in order to control or influence the quality, accessibility, utilization, costs and prices, or outcomes of such services provided to a defined population ( American Medical Association, 1999 ). The first part of the paper reviews specific experiences (Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore), and is followed by a summary of difficulties that Managed Care encountered in Asia. Among these are rising public defiance and physician opposition.     

Behavioral insurance: Theory and experiments

“Risk and insurance” provides an illustrative set of decisions made in the presence of uncertainty. As behavioral models become more integrated into economics and finance, many of their effects are illustrated quite well within insurance markets. Especially noteworthy are the complementary roles of theory and experiments. This article reviews the interactive role of experiments and theory in analyzing insurance demand from a behavioral perspective. We pay special attention to several models of underinvestment in insurance or in other risk-mitigation markets.     

Laboratory experiments with a finite-horizon job-search model

In this article we explain the essential role of controlled experiments in testing job-search models. We derive the testable implications of a finite-horizon job-search model and lay out the design of the controlled experiments that we use to test those implications. We present the results of several parametric and nonparametric tests, all conditional on the actual draws of the wage offers. Overall, we find close agreement between the predictions of the search model and observations of search duration and income for several experimental treatments.     

EPA's 2006 human-subjects rule for pesticide experiments

Arguing that the 2006 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) human-subjects rule allows use of unethical third-party research (on pregnant women and children) in setting pesticide regulations, this article first (a) provides a brief history of U.S. pesticide regulation, particularly regarding childhood safety. Next it (b) outlines ethical and scientific loopholes in the 2006 EPA rule; (c) shows how the Human Subjects Review Board, mandated by the 2006 rule, has been implemented in flawed ways; and (d) illustrates that one source of problems with the rule may be influence by those with conflicts of interest.     

Some criticism of stochastic models generally used in decision making experiments

The general model of expectation maximation widely used in decision making experiments is criticized for several reasons: (1) It may not be considered appropriate as a normative ‘rational’ model by the subject in a variety of situations. (2) In all its consequences, it may be too complicated to be used by a human subject such that a simpler strategy might be more adequate. (3) Some of the conditions of the model, like independence of cues for probability revision and for utility assessment, are hardly ever tested, and probably difficult to meet at all. (4) It is questioned whether deterministic models (like expectation maximation) are not too strict to predict human behavior, such that they should be replaced by probabilistic ones. The emphasis of this paper, however, is not to doubt the applicability of the model in principle but rather to point at some problems where more research is needed.     

Individual decision-making experiments with risk and intertemporal choice

Many decisions require tradeoffs over time and in the presence of risk. To examine interactions between risk and intertemporal effects we developed a laboratory experiment. In the experiment, subjects choose between payoffs that take place at different points in time. We find that very few subjects are consistently risk averse or risk loving. Instead, we find that subjects are less patient in the presence of risk. We also find that increased risk decreases subjects’ patience levels. However, we do not find evidence that the effect of risk on the intertemporal decision depends on the length of the temporal delay.

Simple methods for evaluating and comparing binary experiments

We consider a confidence parametrization of binary information sources in terms of appropriate likelihood ratios. This parametrization is used for Bayesian belief updates and for the equivalent comparison of binary experiments. In contrast to the standard parametrization of a binary information source in terms of its specificity and its sensitivity, one of the two confidence parameters is sufficient for a Bayesian belief update conditional on a signal realization. We introduce a confidence-augmented receiver operating characteristic for comparisons of binary experiments for a class of “balanced” decision problems, relative to which the confidence order offers a higher resolution than Blackwell’s informativeness order.

Where observation is concerned, Chance favors only the prepared mind. —Louis Pasteur (1822–1895).

     

On the independence of history: experience spill-overs between experiments

A central understanding in experimental economics is that subjects’ decisions in the lab are independent of history. We test whether this assumption of between-experiment independence is indeed justified. We analyze experiments with an allocation decision (like a dictator or ultimatum game) and find that participation in previous experiments tends to increase the amount subjects allocate to themselves. Hence, independence between experiments cannot be presumed if subjects participate repeatedly. The finding has implications for the interpretation of previous allocation decision results and deserves attention when running future experiments.     

(Sub) Optimality and (non) optimal satisficing in risky decision experiments

We implement a risky choice experiment based on one-dimensional choice variables and risk neutrality induced via binary lottery incentives. Each participant confronts many parameter constellations with varying optimal payoffs. We assess (sub)optimality, as well as (non)optimal satisficing by eliciting aspirations in addition to choices. Treatments differ in the probability that a binary random event, which are payoff—but not optimal choice—relevant is experimentally induced and whether participants choose portfolios directly or via satisficing, i.e., by forming aspirations and checking for satisficing before making their choice. By incentivizing aspiration formation, we can test satisficing, and in cases of satisficing, determine whether it is optimal.     

Estimating discount rates for environmental quality from utility-based choice experiments

We estimate rates of time preference using a utility-based choice experiment administered to a nationally representative sample of 2,914 respondents. For the full sample, the rate of time preference is very high for immediate benefits and drops off substantially thereafter, which is inconsistent with exponential discounting but consistent with hyperbolic discounting. Estimates of the hyperbolic discounting parameter range from 0.48 to 0.61. Visitors to water bodies have low rates of discount but exhibit hyperbolic discounting, whereas those who do not visit have consistently high rates of discount and low valuations of water quality.