Prediction intervals for ordinary and dual generalized order statistics from two independent sequences

ABSTRACT

Based on the observed dual generalized order statistics drawn from an arbitrary unknown distribution, nonparametric two-sided prediction intervals as well as prediction upper and lower bounds for an ordinary and a dual generalized order statistic from another iid sequence with the same distribution are developed. The prediction intervals for dual generalized order statistics based on the observed ordinary generalized order statistics are also developed. The coverage probabilities of these prediction intervals are exact and free of the parent distribution, F. Finally, numerical computations and real examples of the coverage probabilities are presented for choosing the appropriate limits of the prediction.     

Current records and record range with some applications

In a sequence of independent and identically distributed (iid) random variables, the upper (lower) current records and record range are studied. We derive general recurrence relations between the single and product moments for the upper and lower current records based on Weibull and positive Weibull distributions, as well as Pareto and negative Pareto distributions, respectively. Moreover, some asymptotic results for general current records are established. In addition, a recurrence relation and an explicit formula for the moments of record range based on the exponential distribution are given. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate and corroborate theoretical results.     

Confidence and prediction intervals based on interpolated records

In several statistical problems, nonparametric confidence intervals for population quantiles can be constructed and their coverage probabilities can be computed exactly, but cannot in general be rendered equal to a pre-determined level. The same difficulty arises for coverage probabilities of nonparametric prediction intervals for future observations. One solution to this difficulty is to interpolate between intervals which have the closest coverage probability from above and below to the pre-determined level. In this paper, confidence intervals for population quantiles are constructed based on interpolated upper and lower records. Subsequently, prediction intervals are obtained for future upper records based on interpolated upper records. Additionally, we derive upper bounds for the coverage error of these confidence and prediction intervals. Finally, our results are applied to some real data sets. Also, a comparison via a simulation study is done with similar classical intervals obtained before.     

Inequalities for Expected Current Record Statistics

In this article, we obtain sharp distribution-free bounds for the expected value of the gap between the current records and record values as well as upper sharp bounds for the spacings between any two upper current records. We also present two-sided bounds on the errors in approximating the means of current records by inverse hazard functions.     

Pitman Closeness of kth Records Based on a Two-Sequence Case

Suppose upper kth records were observed from an X-sequence of iid continuous random variables, and kth upper records from another independent Y-sequence of iid variables from the same distribution are to be observed. The Pitman closeness probabilities of these statistics are derived. For symmetric distribution, the Pitman closeness probabilities of kth record statistics to the population median, are also examined and it is shown that these probabilities are distribution free. Numerical computations are conducted to illustrate the results developed here.     

Modeling Interval Time Series with Space–Time Processes

We consider interval-valued time series, that is, series resulting from collecting real intervals as an ordered sequence through time. Since the lower and upper bounds of the observed intervals at each time point are in fact values of the same variable, they are naturally related. We propose modeling interval time series with space–time autoregressive models and, based on the process appropriate for the interval bounds, we derive the model for the intervals’ center and radius. A simulation study and an application with data of daily wind speed at different meteorological stations in Ireland illustrate that the proposed approach is appropriate and useful.     

Outer and inner prediction intervals for order statistics intervals based on current records

This paper considers the largest and smallest observations at the times when a new record of either kind (upper or lower) occurs. These are called the upper and lower current records and are denoted by ${R^l_m}$ and ${R^s_m}$ , respectively. The interval ${(R^s_m,R^l_m)}$ is then referred to as the record coverage. The prediction problem in the two-sample case is then discussed and, specifically, the exact outer and inner prediction intervals are derived for order statistics intervals from an independent future Y-sample based on the m-th record coverage from the X-sequence when the underlying distribution of the two samples are the same. The coverage probabilities of these intervals are exact and do not depend on the underlying distribution. Distribution-free prediction intervals as well as upper and lower prediction limits for spacings from a future Y-sample are obtained in terms of the record range from the X-sequence.     

Shannon Information Properties of the Endpoints of Record Coverage

This paper addresses the largest and the smallest observations, at the times when a new record of either kind (upper or lower) occurs, which are it called the current upper and lower record, respectively. We examine the entropy properties of these statistics, especially the difference between entropy of upper and lower bounds of record coverage. The results are presented for some common parametric families of distributions. Several upper and lower bounds, in terms of the entropy of parent distribution, for the entropy of current records are obtained. It is shown that mutual information, as well as Kullback–Leibler distance between the endpoints of record coverage, Kullback–Leibler distance between data distribution, and current records, are all distribution-free.     

Optimal bounds on l-statistics based on samples drawn with replacement from finite populations

We describe a method of establishing optimal bounds on the expectations of arbitrary linear combinations of order statistics based on iid samples drawn with replacement from finite populations of a fixed size. The bounds are expressed in terms of the population size, mean, central absolute moments, and coefficients of the combination. The bounds are precisely determined for the trimmed means and their differences, and single order statistics and their differences in particular. We also show that with increase in population size, our bounds approach the respective universal ones for arbitrary iid samples.     

Distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles and tolerance intervals in terms of k-records

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining non-parametric confidence intervals for quantiles when available data are in the form of k-records. Distribution-free confidence intervals as well as lower and upper confidence limits are derived for fixed quantiles of an arbitrary unknown distribution based on k-records of an independent and identically distributed sequence from that distribution. The construction of tolerance intervals and limits based on k-records is also discussed. An exact expression for the confidence coefficient of these intervals are derived. Some tables are also provided to assist in choosing the appropriate k-records for the construction of these confidence intervals and tolerance intervals. Some simulation results are presented to point out some of the features and properties of these intervals. Finally, the data, representing the records of the amount of annual rainfall in inches recorded at Los Angeles Civic Center, are used to illustrate all the results developed in this paper and also to demonstrate the improvements that they provide on those based on either the usual records or the current records.     

Pitman closeness of record values from two sequences to population quantiles

Suppose upper records from two independent sequences from iid continuous random variables from the same distribution are observed. Pitman's measure of closeness of these statistics to population quantiles of the parent distribution is studied and various exact expressions are derived. For symmetric distributions, Pitman closeness probabilities of records to median are also obtained. Examples including exponential and uniform distributions are discussed. Numerical evaluations are presented to illustrate all the results developed here.     

Nonparametric confidence and tolerance intervals from record values data

In a number of situations only observations that exceed or only those that fall below the current extreme value are recorded. Examples include meteorology, hydrology, athletic events and mining. Industrial stress testing is also an example in which only items that are weaker than all the observed items are destroyed. In this paper, it is shown that, how record values can be used to provide distribution-free confidence intervals for population quantiles and tolerance intervals. We provide some tables that help one choose the appropriate record values and present a numerical example. Also universal upper bounds for the expectation of the length of the confidence intervals are derived. The results may be of interest in situation where only record values are stored.     

Comparison of Records and Maxima

We establish best upper bounds on the expected differences of records and sample maxima, and kth records and kth maxima based on sequences of independent random variables with identical continuous distribution and finite variance. The bounds are expressed in terms of the standard deviation units of the parent distribution. We also provide conditions for attaining the bounds.     

On the distribution-free confidence intervals and universal bounds for quantiles based on joint records

In this paper, we consider three distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles given joint records from two independent sequences of continuous random variables with a common continuous distribution function. The coverage probabilities of these intervals are compared. We then compute the universal bounds of the expected widths of the proposed confidence intervals. These results naturally extend to any number of independent sequences instead of just two. Finally, the proposed confidence intervals are applied for a real data set to illustrate the practical usefulness of the procedures developed here.     

Cohpasisons of improved bonferroni and sidak/slepian bounds with applications to normal markov processes

The recent literature contains theorems improving on both the standard Bonferroni inequality (Hoover (1990)) and the Sidak/Slepian inequalities (Glaz and Johnson (1984)), The application of these improved theorems to upper bounds for non coverage of simultaneous confidence intervals on multivariate normal variables is explored. The improved Bonferroni upper bounds always hold, while improved Sidak/Slepian bounds only apply to special cases. It is shown that improved Sidak/Slepian bounds will always hold for Normal Markov Processes, a commonly occuring and easily identifiable class of multivariate normal variables. The improved Sidak/Slepian upper bound, if it applies, is proven to be superior to the computationally equivalent improved Bonferroni bound. This improvement, however, is not great when both methods are used to determine upper bounds for Type I error in the range of .01 to .10.     

Distribution-free confidence bounds for pr y< when fx and gy = fx-6 are continuous and symmetric

For and continuous and symmetric and differing at most by a shift parameter, distribution-free confidence intervals for are obtained by means of the Chebyshev inequality and an upper bound for the variance of the Mann-Whitney statistic. The (two-sided) intervals are reliable for small samples and about 20 to 30 per cent shorter than those obtained by Ury for and completely unknown for equal sample sizes, with larger savings otherwise. They are also shorter than the upper bounds obtained by Birnbaum and McCarty (1958) when the confidence coefficient does not exceed 0.95.     

Simultaneous one-sided tolerance intervals for sets of contrasts from normal populations

This paper considers the problem of constructing simultaneous prediction and tolerance intervals for sets of contrasts of normal variables in situations where simultaneous intervals are available. Tables are given with critical values used in simultaneous tolerance bounds for two classes of contrasts: pairwise many-one and profile type.     

Bayesian prediction based on type-I censored data from a mixture of Burr type XII distribution and its reciprocal

This paper is concerned with the problem of obtaining Bayesian prediction bounds of future observables from a finite mixture of Burr type XII distribution with its reciprocal based on type-I censored data. We consider the one-sample and two-sample prediction schemes using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the procedures and the accuracy of prediction intervals is investigated via extensive Monte Carlo simulation.     

Prediction intervals for the future record values from exponential distribution: comparative study

!n this paper we consider the predicf an problem of the future nth record value based an the first m (m < n) observed record values from one-parameter exponential distribution. We introduce four procedures for obtaining prediction intervals for the nth record value. The performance of the so obtained intervals is assessed through numerical and simulation studies. In these studies, we provide the means and standard errors of lower limits. upper limits and lengths of prediction intervals. Further, we check the validation of these intervals based on some point predictors.