Migrant cohort size,enforcement effort,and the apprehension of undocumented aliens

This article examines macro-structural conditions that affect time trends in aggregate probabilities of undocumented alien apprehension along the Mexico-US border. We show that the number of migrants attempting to cross the border illegally in a given period and the level of effort expended by the INS to apprehend undocumented migrants are principal determinants of apprehension probabilities. Our findings differ from those in earlier work by Donato, Durand, and Massey who argue that individual, household, and community factors are not significant predictors of apprehension probabilities and conclude that escaping INS detection at the border is essentially a random process unrelated to personal traits or to enforcement provisions of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. Although Donato et al. recognize that apprehension probabilities are affected by the size of the US Border Patrol budget and the number of personnel, they omit these larger structural factors from consideration. Instead, they introduce annual dummy variables to control for macro-structural forces. This approach is unsatisfactory because it confounds the effects of numerous explanatory factors. We conclude that one implication for future research is that it is worth modeling the effects of individuals' characteristics on apprehension probabilities by including as predictors an estimate of the flow of undocumented migrants and measures of INS border enforcement effort. Controlling explicitly for three macrostructural conditions may disclose the importance of some individual-level factors that would otherwise be obscured.     

An analysis of net immigration in census coverage evaluation

National surveys monitored growth in the foreign-born population for the 1980s, especially net undocumented migration's continuing role, but the 1990 census portrayed an even larger foreign-born population than these surveys. Undercoverage in 1990 could have been higher than initially presented because preliminary studies may have insufficiently accounted for decadal net immigration. Assumptions intended to maintain a high undocumented undercount performed poorly when census counts of foreign-born residents became known. Any point estimate for net undocumented migration, calculated as a residual, is likely to be biased by assumptions and data gaps for components of calculating net legal immigration, especially in the direction of underestimation. A reasonable statement is that at least 2.1–2.4 million undocumented residents were enumerated in the 1990 census. The number of unenumerated undocumented residents may easily have ranged between 0.5 million and 3.0 million, and a narrower range of 1 million to 2 million is plausible. Despite the importance of undocumented migration measurement for census evaluation and policy purposes, differences among various undocumented estimates are more likely to stem from discrepancies in universe, reference dates, or individual judgment, rather than analytic refinement. Better measurement of the foreignborn population or its census coverage would aid in setting upper limits on net undocumented migration.     

Evaluating the local impacts of recent immigration to California: Realism versus racism

Although past migration was often viewed with suspicion the implicit assumption was that new migrants would fill the jobs in the growing cities and contribute to the national wealth. There are those who still subscribe to the view that continuing migration will increase national wealth, indeed that new migrants are the work horses of prosperity. There is another view however, which focuses on the local impacts of migration. This view suggests that the migrations of the late twentieth century are in a different context and create substantial burdens on local communities and states. It may be too, that the mass migrations of the late twentieth century will lead to a new pattern of social exclusion, polarization and a new ethnic under-class. The analysis of recent migration in California documents the extent to which that migration is made up of very low skill, low income, and dependent groups and has the potential to create significant local dependency burdens.     

Implications of immigration for apportionment

Around the time of the US decennial censuses, a renewed interest emerges in the method for apportioning the US House of Representatives. Various methods may show slight variations in illustrative apportionments, with biases favoring less populous states, but the general pattern remains. Definition of certain groups as included in the apportionment counts and coverage levels for selected groups have been debated in the judicial system, legal journals, and government. Unauthorized residents, and, sometimes, lawful immigrants, are often singled out for exclusion. The legal issues are complex, and illustrating the effects of these groups' inclusion is problematic due to poor measures, nationally and geographically. Using approximate distributions, these analyses suggest this next apportionment might differ slightly under various scenarios such as ones excluding either recently entered unauthorized residents or all unauthorized residents. Allowing for net authorized immigration greater than official estimates for the 1990s might have some effect for large states.     

Too many migrants, too few services: a model of decision-making on immigration and integration with cultural distance

We model the political demand for immigrants as a trade-off that native voters face between having services, assumed to be produced only by unskilled and nonassimilated immigrants, and experiencing disutility due to the immigrant workers having a culture different from the native culture. Immigrants decide whether to integrate into the native culture. We show that if services are priced according to per unit costs, the market demand for immigrants will exceed the political demand. Market forces then lead to higher services prices, implying that the initially allowed number of immigrants is ‘politically’ too large.

The political economy of social exclusion, with implications for immigration policy

Minorities such as ethnic and immigration groups have often been subject to exclusion through labor market discrimination, residential and employment segregation policies, business ownership regulations, restrictions on political participation, access to public services, and more. This paper studies the dynamics of minority exclusion. From the viewpoint of the dominant majority, the exclusion decision balances the motive to redistribute income in its favor and the interest in avoiding potential civic unrest or even violent confrontation with the minority. The analysis also has implications for immigration policies, suggesting that they have to take this group dynamics into account.

The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: some evidence for Spain

This paper provides an approximation to the labor market effects of immigrants in Spain, a country where labor market institutions and immigration policy exhibit some peculiarities, during the second half of the 1990s, the period in which immigration flows accelerated. By using alternative data sets, we estimate both the impact of legal and total immigration flows on the employment rates and wages of native workers, accounting for the possible occupational and geographical mobility of immigrants and native-born workers. Using different samples and estimation procedures, we have not found a significant negative effect of immigration on either the employment rates or wages of native workers.

Disagreement over the immigration of low-income earners in a welfare state

This paper studies natives’ economically motivated preferences over different levels of immigration of low-income earners. Immigration affects natives through both intra- and intergenerational redistribution programmes and in the labour market. Our analysis suggests, in a welfare state that looks after the poor and the aged, economic motivation does not necessarily lead a native to have an extreme opinion on the preferable level of immigration, although it causes disagreement among natives. We find, regardless of parameter values, high-income earners prefer at least as much immigration as low-income earners who, in turn, prefer at least as much immigration as pensioners. The median voter is then likely to be a low-income native.

A computable general equilibrium assessment of the impact of illegal immigration on the Greek economy

Recent years have witnessed a large inflow of illegal immigrants into Greece. Past surveys have examined the extent and nature of this immigration, but have not analysed the impacts on the economy. This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of illegal immigration on the economy of the small open type, like that of Greece. The theoretical analysis uses a small stylised model to show that there is no unequivocal case for illegal immigration to lead to declines in the real wages of unskilled labour and increases in the real wages of skilled. Empirical analysis using a recently constructed applied general equilibrium model for Greece, adapted to the purpose in hand, shows that the inflow of illegal immigrants has resulted in declines of the real disposable incomes of two classes of households among the fifteen modelled, namely those headed by an unskilled person, that are poor and middle income. All other households gain. The ones who lose, however, make up about 37% of the Greek population. The distributional effects are moderated, however, when rigidities in the labour market are simulated. Received: 16 May 1997/Accepted: 18 March 1998     

State and local fiscal impacts of US immigrants: Evidence from New Jersey

This paper uses a household-level estimation strategy to develop new evidence on the state and local fiscal impacts of US immigration. The methodology is applied to 1980 census microdata for New Jersey, a state that now ranks fifth in the nation in the size of its foreign-born population. All New Jersey households combined in 1980 imposed a net fiscal burden on state government of more than US$2.1 billion, and a net burden on the aggregate of all local governments totaling nearly $ 690 million. Both native- and immigrant-headed households received government benefits worth more than they paid in taxes. The typical immigrant-headed household imposed an average fiscal burden of $ 350 on local governments throughout New Jersey, versus roughly $ 225 for each native-headed household. At the state level, however, net fiscal impacts of immigrants and natives were similar: an average annual deficit of $ 841 for immigrants compared with $ 846 for native households. There are larger disparities among the foreign-born population than between native-headed and immigrant-headed households. Latin American households have the most unfavorable fiscal implications of any immigrant subgroup. Taken together, our findings illustrate the overriding importance of household income and number of school-age children as determinants of taxes paid, benefits received and, ultimately, of net fiscal impacts.     

Migrant networks and the immigrant professional: An analysis of the role of weak ties

Weak ties, particularly those to potential employers, play a more important role than strong ties in the immigration of professionals to the United States. I operationalize network strength through the class of admission variable in the Immigration and Naturalization Service's public use data files,Immigrants Admitted to the United States, 1972–1992. I also examine the differential impact of legislative measures on the availability of strong versus weak ties for four groups of professionals: physicians, nurses, engineers and scientists. Not only do weak ties figure heavily on the immigration experiences of professionals, but those impacts affect women differently than men. Professional women rely more heavily on strong ties than on weak ties when compared with males in their respective professions, with the exception of nursing. These findings suggests a need for further study into the migration experiences of professionals as well as more research into how gendered networks develop among immigrant professionals and how those networks influence (either positively or negatively) immigrant adaptation to United States' society.     

试析历代汉族移民与广西壮族地区的社会变迁

中华民族的各个民族,在祖国历史长期发展进程中,作了各自应有的贡献,广西作为壮族人口最多的地区,其今日的发展不仅是各少数民族努力的结果．也与汉族人民的辛勤劳动分不开。自秦开岭南、修灵渠、“谪徙五十万与越杂居”后,汉族移民因各种原因不断迁徙来广西,随之带来中原先进的经济生产技术,也带来了充足劳动力与壮族人民共同开发广西。同时汉壮民族在相互交往中,逐渐形成你中有我,我中有你,从而对壮族地区社会文化与经济变迁产生雩大影响.     

抗战时期入陕移民群体的人口学分析

抗日战争的全面爆发及其他因素的影响,导致一年轻型的人口群体入陕,他们主要来自河南、河北、山西等地,分布在西安、宝鸡、咸阳、汉中等大、中城市和铁路、公路沿线村庄。抗战时期的入陕移民主要有工人、农民、小商贩、小手工业者、知识分子、政府职员、军警、自由职业者等,这和他们的文化程度是相联系的。     

Immigration restrictions and the American worker: An examination of competing interpretations

This paper examines three competing interpretations of support for tougher immigration restrictions. One interpretation posits that tighter restrictions are favored by those in direct competition with immigrants for jobs, namely low or unskilled workers who toil in labor markets that are low-paying and often unstable. A second line of thought is that greater restrictions are favored by workers who perceive immigrants as potential competitors in labor markets, even though there may be no real basis for such perceptions. The third interpretation explaining support for tougher restrictions is rooted in a broad based cultural nativism or nationalism, and relies heavily on traditional theories of prejudice and discrimination. Data for the study are derived from the 1992 National Election Survey, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Contrary to theoretical expectations, neither actual nor perceived economic insecurity explain variations in current levels of support for tougher immigration restrictions among American workers. The theoretical significance of the findings are discussed and elaborated. Suggestions are made for future research in this important area of inquiry.     

Male attitudes toward abortion: An analysis of urban survey data

Utilizing data from Edmonton Area Surveys of 1977, 1984, and 1987, this paper examines the attitudes of Canadian men toward the contentious issue of abortion. Respondents were presented with various different circumstances for abortion and asked to indicate the conditions in which they feel women ought to or ought not to be allowed to obtain a legal abortion. Findings reveal that attitudes toward abortion vary greatly depending upon the criteria for abortion. Endangering the mother's health elicited the most favourable attitude toward abortion between 1977 and 1987. The findings also depict a slight trend toward greater opposition to legalized abortion on the grounds of possible birth defect, while the approval of legal abortion on the grounds of rape increased marginally during the ten-year period. The paper goes further to examine socio-demographic variations in attitudes toward abortion. Some of the neglected issues that will likely make future Canadian abortion legislation impotent are also discussed.     

Immigration,ethnicity, and the loss of white students from California public schools, 1990–2000

This article investigates whether and the extent to which “white flight” from Hispanic and Limited English Proficient (LEP) students has been occurring in California’s public schools and further, examines the level (school or district) on which “white flight” may operate. Using school-level administrative data from the California Department of Education from 1990 to 2000, we estimate exponential growth rate models of white enrollment with school-level fixed effects. The results shed light on the implications of immigration for school segregation in the United States. The analysis indicates that white enrollment declined in response to increases in the number of Spanish-speaking LEP and Hispanic students, and that “white flight” from LEP or Hispanic students occurred more at the district than the school level in the case of primary schools, and at the school level for secondary schools. In addition, schools with higher percentages of Spanish LEP students in the school than the district, and with higher percentages in the district relative to the county, experienced greater losses in white enrollments than other schools, thus suggesting that higher levels of segregation in the wider metropolitan area accelerate white flight.     

Undocumented workers in the labor market: an analysis of the earnings of legal and illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States

This paper studies the differences in earnings between Mexican legal and illegal immigrants in the United States. The analysis includes a cross-sectional examination of the wage differences between legal and undocumented workers as well as a longitudinal analysis examining the impact of legalization on the earnings of previously-undocumented workers. It is shown that the average hourly wage rate of male Mexican legal immigrants in the United States was 41.8% higher than that of undocumented workers while female legal immigrants earned 40.8% more. Though illegal immigrants have lower education and English proficiency, and a shorter period of residence in the United States, than legal immigrants, it is shown that differences in the observed characteristics of legal and illegal immigrants explain only 48% of the log-wage gap between male legal and illegal workers and 43% of the gap for women. An analysis of undocumented immigrants legalized after the 1986 U.S. immigration policy reform shows significant wage growth in the four years following legalization. These gains are due mostly to the change in legal status itself, not to changes in the characteristics of immigrants over time. Received: 7 July 1997/Accepted: 16 March 1998     

The effect of legalization and public funding of abortion on neonatal mortality: An intervention analysis

This paper examines the impact of the legalization of abortion on neonatal mortality in the United States. Monthly time series data are used to estimate intervention models separately for the U.S. as a whole and for the States of New York and South Carolina. Legalization of abortion in 1973 is found to have no discernible impact on national neonatal mortality rates. However, results from New York and South Carolina, states in which accessibility and public funding of abortion differed markedly, suggest that abortion is significantly related to declines in neonatal mortality, particularly among nonwhites. The magnitude and timing of such impacts varied between races and states.     

An exploration of attitudes toward female genital cutting in Nigeria

Female genital cutting (FGC) continues to be widespread particularly in sub-Saharan African countries. We use data from the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey to consider factors that influence attitudes toward this procedure held by Nigerian women aged 15–49. We test four models: model 1 explores whether attitudes are consistent with a view of FGC as a social convention associated with marriageability of women. Model 2 examines the impact of modernization factors such as education and urbanization. In model 3, the influence of media and community activities are considered. Model 4 includes all of the factors in the three previous models. We find strong support for considering FGC a social convention. Modernization has minimal impact on attitudes about FGC mainly through its influence on the social convention.