Post‐Migratory Employment Prospects: Evidence from Finland

This paper analyses the role which migration plays in improving post‐migratory employment prospects of migrants (long‐distance) within Finland, by examining the employment status of migrants and non‐migrants at the end of the migration interval. The analysis is based on micro data from the period 1985–90. The results from multivariate analyses suggest that migration by itself has not augmented the likelihood of getting a job, even though tabular comparisons of re‐employment rates between migrants and non‐migrants suggest this to be the case. Migration, however, has an indirect role in enhancing job search outcomes as it moves workers to labour markets characterized by more favourable employment opportunities.     

Modelling Labour Demand Dynamics beyond the Frictionless Environment

Abstract. In this study we develop a simple econometric model for labour demand dynamics by explicitly considering deviations from the standard frictionless economic environment. In particular, we explore the potential effect on labour demand of capital market imperfections, labour market institutional rigidities in the form of union power, and the impact of uncertainty. In addition, in the presence of uncertainty, adjustment costs and irreversibility emerge as an important factor that introduces an option value of waiting. According to our results, leverage exerts a direct negative impact on employment dynamics indicating that capital market imperfections are indeed present. Moreover, leverage is found to also affect the adjustment process of employment. Finally, we document asymmetric effects of frictions on labour demand across different size groups that imply a higher vulnerability of small and medium sectors with respect to debt levels. Uncertainty exerts a significantly negative impact on labour demand, which is compatible with presence of partial irreversibility of employment decisions. Finally, unions over and above their effect via higher wages are positively related to employment, a finding that is indicative of their pursue for job security.     

Employment Relationships and Firm Innovation: The Double Role of Human Capital

We examine how employment relationships and human capital influence innovation in a sample of Spanish firms. Previous research has indicated that human capital directly affects innovation, but few studies have considered human capital as a variable that mediates or moderates the effects of other variables on innovation. We tested our hypotheses using a sample of 150 innovative Spanish firms and confirmed that, while human capital favours innovations, employment relationships are not directly associated with innovation unless they take human capital into account. Specifically, our analyses suggest that human capital mediates the relationship between a mutual investment employment relationship and innovation, which is characterized by high levels of incentives and expectations. However, we also found that human capital plays a moderating role when organizations develop an employment relationship characterized by low investments in personnel but high expectations from their work (the underinvestment model). We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results.     

Temporary Contracts,Employment Protection,and Collective Bargaining

This paper examines the effect of employment protection in a matching model with endogenous job destruction, collective bargaining, and two types of employment contracts. Using this framework, we show that (i) the impact on job creation and job destruction caused by reducing the firing costs associated with temporary jobs depends on the labour unions' bargaining strength and the gap in firing costs between contracts; (ii) reducing the firing costs associated with permanent jobs unambiguously decreases equilibrium unemployment if labour unions have strong bargaining power; and (iii) the impact caused by the firing costs differs between collective and individual bargaining.     

SKILL‐BIASED TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE,UNEMPLOYMENT, AND BRAIN DRAIN

We develop a model of directed technology adoption, frictional unemployment, and migration to examine the effects of a change in skill endowments on the wages, employment rates, and emigration rates of skilled and unskilled workers. We find that, depending on the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers and the elasticity of the matching function, an increase in the skill ratio can reduce both the relative unemployment rate and the relative emigration rate (brain drain) of skilled workers. We provide numerical simulations to support our findings and show that the effects are empirically relevant and potentially sizable.     

Labour Market Regulation,Flexibility and Employment

ABSTRACT: Chronic unemployment and slow employment growth in some countries have led to calls for more labor-market “flexibility”. This paper defines the flexibility issue in terms of legally-mandated “severance”, a generalized employment cost linked to seniority. A mandated severance benefit can stand for a variety of programs including employer-provided employment guarantees, payments which must be made to laid-off workers, and compensation for wrongful discharge. Such a mandated cost can be seen as a payroll tax on the employer, raising the issue of tax incidence. Employers often take the view that labor costs are given and that mandated costs are simply add-ons to pre-existing cost levels. However, the literature on tax incidence suggests that a significant portion of “employer-paid” payroll taxes are shifted to labor in the form of lower wages. Such shifting should reduce the dis-employment effects attributed to severance. A model is provided of a firm upon which a severance mandate is imposed. Even at the micro level, the firm can shift some of the cost of severance to employees by lowering wages — although at the expense of higher turnover costs associated with increased quit rates. At the macro level, to the extent that firms reduce employment, there could be still further downward wage adjustments which would shift the severance burden to labor and mitigate the dis-employment effect. Ultimately, if the natural rate of unemployment is raised by severance mandates, the age-old question is raised of why wages do not fall in the face of labor surpluses. The true inflexibility to be explained, therefore, is in wage determination.     

Labour‐market Institutions and Macroeconomic Shocks

Abstract. Macroeconomic shocks and labour‐market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these institutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of institutions may be appropriate in one epoch and not in another. We derive a dynamic model of labour demand in which the effect of firing costs on labour demand depends on the macroeconomic environment: when the level of macroeconomic activity is expected to drop and/or the trend rate of productivity growth is small, a rise in firing costs affects mainly (and adversely) the hiring decision and not the layoff decision. This makes firing costs harmful to employment when it may appear most appropriate. In contrast, firing costs can raise employment during periods of high growth and positive shocks. Our hypothesis is supported by empirical results using OECD data.     

Supporting temporary agency workers’ affective commitments: exploring the role of opportunities for competence development

Nowadays, many organizations employ parts of their workforce via employment agencies and, as such, temporary agency workers (TAWs) are important for our economies. Increasingly, research is conducted to explore the relationships among the three parties involved – the TAW, the client organization and employment agency – and how this relationship can be strengthened by HR instruments. This study adds to this stream of literature by studying to what extent TAWs’ affective commitment (AC) towards the client organization and employment agency relates to their expectations and their fulfilled expectations regarding offered opportunities for competence development (OfCD) by both organizations, and by exploring to what extent TAWs regard both employment organizations responsible for offering them OfCD. A cross-sectional survey study was conducted among TAWs in the Netherlands (n = 449), including quantitative and qualitative analyses. All results of this study together revealed that TAWs tend to be focused on the client organization with regard to OfCD. This is the organization to which they feel most affectively committed, that they regard responsible for organizing their OfCD, and where they ask for OfCD. This study indicated that TAWs do not yet profit maximally from the triangular employment relationship, and have a rather traditional view on TAW constructions.     

Why Rates of Growth of Employment Differ: A Quantitative Approach to an International Comparison

ABSTRACT: This essay aims at presenting a quantitative assessment of the incidence of structural differences in output and employment composition, and of differential dynamics of the sectoral production and productivity, in order to explain the divergences in net employment growth in advanced market economies. The point of reference is the extremely divergent record, in terms of employment creation, of the United States on one hand, and Western European countries on the other. In the period 1973-80, for example, although the average growth rates of GNP were, on a cyclical average, similar in the U. S. A. and the EEC areas as a whole, additional job openings were about 14 million in the USA against less than half a million in the EEC. A structural, medium-run differential in the aggregate Employment/GNP elasticity appears to have characterized the performances of these economic systems. The 'source’of this differential are analyzed, utilizing a model of sectoral decomposition of employment and output trends. Simulation exercises are carried out, in order to assess the specific role of productivity, sectoral demand composition and sectoral employment composition, in determining the overall elasticity result. The comparative analysis takes into consideration the differential factors for the USA and Japan, together with the four major Western European countries (German Fed. Rep., France, Italy, and the United Kingdom).     

Job insecurity in temporary versus permanent workers: Associations with attitudes, well-being, and behaviour

Recent research suggests that the relationship between job insecurity and psychological outcomes is more negative among permanent compared with temporary workers. We investigate possible interaction effects between job insecurity and type of contract (temporary versus permanent) for various psychological outcomes (job satisfaction, organizational commitment, life satisfaction, and self-rated performance), some of which have received little attention. We aim to explain these interaction effects, while taking into account the heterogeneous nature of temporary workers in terms of tenure, employment prospects, and wish to do temporary employment. We argue that permanent workers expect higher levels of job security; job insecurity breaches permanent workers' but not temporary workers' expectations. This may relate to unfavourable outcomes. Similarly, the heterogeneous nature of temporary workers may relate to job security expectations and thus to reactions to job insecurity. This study was conducted on a sample of 477 temporary and permanent workers from various occupational sectors in Belgium. The results suggested that the interaction effect between job insecurity and contract type may be limited to job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Furthermore, permanent workers had higher expectations about job security. Breach of these expectations furthermore mediated the relationship between job insecurity and all outcomes, except for self-rated performance. However, the heterogeneity indicators were found to be unrelated to job security expectations.     

Co-determination and Personnel Turnover: The German Experience

ABSTRACT: It has often been argued, that within the German system of co-determination the works council has an unparalleled participative role, which goes well beyond any voice function of trade unions in the Anglo Saxon tradition. Nevertheless, there is surprisingly little empirical evidence, whether and to what extent works councils influence employers’dismissal and employees’quit decisions. Analyzing a representative sample of private sector firms that have to obey the Dismissal Protection Act of 1969 and the Works Constitution Act of 1972, the paper finds that firms with a works council have an annual dismissal rate which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the one experienced by firms wthout a plant-level interest representation. At the same time, firms with a works council have a quit rate which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the one in firms without such interest representation. Union density, on the other hand, has no statistically significant influence on either the dismissal or the quit rate. Apparently, it is the works councils that in both cases act as a collective “voice institution”, serving as a direct channel of communication between workers and management. Although it is difficult to reach a safe conclusion about the net economic impact of works councils on the employment behavior of firms, the findings lend some support to the following assumption: since hiring and training costs are usually higher than firing costs, firms on average benefit from the presence of a works council with regard to their user costs of labor: the “savings” due to avoided voluntary quits apparently more than compensate for the additional spendings for severance payments and the costs of co-determination.     

Transfer Pricing and Sourcing Strategies for Multinational Firms

Taking advantage of low tax rates using transfer pricing and taking advantage of low production costs using offshoring are two strategies multinational firms (MNFs) use to increase profits. We identify an important trade‐off that MNFs face in setting their transfer prices: the conflict between (i) the incentive role and (ii) the tax role of the transfer price. For MNFs, we find the profit‐maximizing transfer‐pricing strategies that motivate divisional management to (i) make good sourcing decisions and (ii) take advantage of favorable tax rates. We quantify the absolute and relative maximum inefficiency in terms of the after‐tax MNF's profit change from using a single transfer‐pricing system as compared to the dual transfer‐pricing system. We show that the highest relative loss is attained when the average sourcing cost and the tax differential are high. We demonstrate that the highest absolute loss is attained when the average outsourcing cost is approximately equal to the offshoring cost. We extend our results to two practical variations in MNF structures: an MNF that faces operational constraints on its offshoring capacity and an MNF that uses compensation contracts linked to after‐tax firm‐wide profits. Our insights help MNFs' managers identify when to use single and dual transfer‐pricing systems.     

Die Entscheidung über den Verkauf von Wertpapieren unter der Abgeltungssteuer und auf Basis subjektiver Erwartungen

Since January 1, 2009 realized capital gains on securities are taxable in Germany regardless of the investor’s holding period. This paper examines when a rational investor should optimally sell a security in the presence of capital gains taxes. Besides taxes, our analysis considers the relevance of investor’s subjective expectations about future market prices of the security. The results suggest that investors should base divestment decisions primarily on their expectations. To realize losses or to avoid the realization of taxable gains (i.e. the lock-in-effect) is of minor importance for the optimal divestment strategy. This result becomes even more pronounced when transaction costs and limitations to save taxes by realizing losses are considered. Numerical calculations illustrate the results of our analysis.     

Managerial prerogatives,employee expectations,and property rights in job security: Institutionalizing the “new equity”

Changes in the structure and provisions of the employment relationship create substantial challenges for the management community. The employer-manager's traditional prerogatives to terminate at will are being eroded in response to changing socioeconomic values that recognize the emergence of an employee's reasonable expectations of job security. The United States lags far behind the international community in protecting these expectations. The authors survey the erosion of the employment-at-will doctrine, and review the concepts of corporate due process and property rights relating to employment. To ensure the institutionalization of this new equity, the authors call on the management community to take the initiative in crafting progressive legislation that strikes a sensible balance between managerial prerogatives and employee expectations of job security.     

Dynamic Female Labor Supply

The increase in female employment and participation rates is one of the most dramatic changes to have taken place in the economy during the last century. However, while the employment rate of married women more than doubled during the last 50 years, that of unmarried women remained almost constant. To empirically analyze these trends, we estimate a female dynamic labor supply model using an extended version of Eckstein and Wolpin (1989) to compare the various explanations in the literature for the observed trends. This dynamic model provides a much better fit to the life‐cycle employment pattern than a static version of the model and a standard static reduced form model (Heckman (1979)). The main finding using the dynamic model is that the rise in education levels accounts for about 33 percent of the increase in female employment, and the rise in wages and narrowing of the gender wage gap account for another 20 percent, while about 40 percent remains unexplained by observed household characteristics. We show that this unexplained portion can be empirically attributed to cohort‐specific changes in preferences or the costs of child‐rearing and household maintenance. Finally, the decline in fertility and the increase in divorce rates account for only a small share of the increase in female employment rates.     

Micro-Flexibility and Macro-Rigidity: Some Notes on Expectations and the Dynamics of Aggregate Supply

ABSTRACT: The high macro supply elasticity experienced by industrialised countries during the second post-war boom is not explainable as the aggregate effect of current variations of companies’output in response to current variations of demand. A firm cannot adapt rapidly its output to higher demand unless it has decided fairly in advance to expand its productive capacity. Macro elasticity depends thus on the existence of ex ante excess capacity, built on the basis of expectations. The post-war boom is thus explained in terms of a virtuous sequence expectations-decisions-events. This approach helps in understanding the inversion of the expansionary phase to one of stag-flation, the failure of Keynesian policies and the subsequent industrial restructuring which gave rise to the present employment squeeze. Flexibility is something which depends on the relationships between individual expectations and decisions and their systemic results; the presently pursued micro-flexibility is at high risk of producing increasing macro-rigidity.     

The Burden of Labour Costs in Mexico

Abstract. We analysed labour costs in Mexico and evaluated their impact in terms of firm performance. Using a new survey, we studied how firms chose to conduct a firing procedure (i.e. mandatory payment, negotiation, or legal dispute) and the actual costs derived from that decision. We found that firms that negotiate have, on average, lower costs. This may mean that workers subvaluate the legal benefits. Moreover, legal disputes may increase firing costs by 50 per cent. We contributed to the analysis of the impact of such costs on employment and found that, when firms negotiate or pay higher costs, this decreases the level of employment. We also analysed the impact of Social Benefits on employment using an industrial survey. We found that a 10 per cent increment in these benefits may have a negative long‐term impact of 9 per cent on the level of employment.     

Efficiency Wage,Fixed Employment Costs,and Dual Labour Markets

The standard efficiency wage‐based explanation of labour market dualism hinges on the existence of differences in monitoring across sectors. The paper proposes fixed employment costs as an alternative source of wage differentials for homogeneous workers. It shows that firms with larger fixed costs pay higher wages in order to elicit more effort from their workers, and tend to have higher capital/labour ratio and labour productivity. The model generates both involuntary unemployment and involuntary confinement in the secondary sector: high effort–high wage jobs are preferred to low effort–low wage jobs and either are preferred to unemployment. The proposed framework can also account for the various types of treatment of marginal jobs in primary sector firms envisaged by Doeringer and Piore (Internal Labour Markets and Manpower Analysis, 1971). In particular, an increase in fixed costs beyond a certain level may induce primary sector firms to restructure, segment production, and enter the secondary sector, thus converting their jobs into secondary jobs. From a welfare point of view, we cannot state in general the desirability of subsidizing fixed employment costs; however, we show that an employment subsidy financed by a wage tax is able to increase employment with no loss in terms of production.     

Market Entry Costs,Producer Heterogeneity,and Export Dynamics

As the exchange rate, foreign demand, and production costs evolve, domestic producers are continually faced with two choices: whether to be an exporter and, if so, how much to export. We develop a dynamic structural model of export supply that characterizes these two decisions. The model embodies plant‐level heterogeneity in export profits, uncertainty about the determinants of future profits, and market entry costs for new exporters. Using a Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain estimator, we fit this model to plant‐level panel data on three Colombian manufacturing industries. We obtain profit function and sunk entry cost coefficients, and use them to simulate export responses to shifts in the exchange‐rate process and several types of export subsidies. In each case, the aggregate export response depends on entry costs, expectations about the exchange rate process, prior exporting experience, and producer heterogeneity. Export revenue subsidies are far more effective at stimulating exports than policies that subsidize entry costs.