知识产权保护对经济增长的作用研究

实证研究加强知识产权保护是否会促进经济增长。论述知识产权保护与R&D活动以及国际贸易的交互作用,分析其在国家经济增长中发挥的作用,并确定采用R&D知识存量作为R&D活动的代理变量,采用进出口总额占GDP的比重作为国际贸易的代理变量,基于柯布道-格拉斯生产函数构建理论模型,基于影响因素分析推导并建立实证回归模型;依据传统的永续盘存法分别测算固定资本存量和R&D知识存量,利用1980年至2005年27个发达国家和22个发展中国家的面板数据,采用固定效应与随机效应相结合的方法,检验知识产权保护对经济增长的影响效果。实证研究结果表明,加强知识产权保护对经济增长有正向的促进作用,加强知识产权保护和扩大国际贸易对经济增长的促进作用显著,加强知识产权保护和R&D活动对经济增长的促进作用不显著。     

我国人力资本与生产性服务贸易竞争力相关性研究——基于行业角度的实证分析

本文首次采用1990-2008年的数据研究我国人力资本对各生产性服务业贸易竞争力的影响方向和长短期作用机制,并进行比较分析。结果表明,长期内人力资本对我国生产性服务业中的运输、保险、金融、计算机和信息、专有权利使用费和特许费行业的贸易竞争力具有明显提升作用,其中对金融行业贸易竞争力的提升作用最大。短期来看,人力资本与保险、金融行业的贸易竞争力正相关,与运输、计算机和信息、专有权利使用费和特许费行业负相关,其中对金融行业的促进作用最大,对计算机和信息行业的反向作用最明显。最后结合各行业的特点提出了结论和相关政策建议。     

产品市场竞争优势、资本结构与商业信用支持——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

以2005年-2013年中国上市公司为样本,探讨产品市场竞争优势的含义及度量方法,产品市场竞争优势对企业资本结构与商业信用支持的影响,以及宏观、行业和微观因素如何发挥调节作用.研究发现:第一,产品市场竞争优势有助于降低企业的负债水平,并刺激企业对上下游企业提供更多的商业信用支持;第二,在经济越发达的地区、竞争强度越弱的行业,以及民营控股上市公司中,产品市场竞争优势会进一步降低企业的负债水平,同时加强其对上下游企业的商业信用支持.研究结论为从理论上更加全面和准确地理解产品市场竞争优势与企业资本结构和商业信用支持的关系提供了新的科学依据.     

环境规制强度与经济增长——基于生产性资本和健康人力资本视角

近年来,环境保护与经济增长之间的"两难悖论"引起了广泛的关注,环境规制强度如何影响经济增长的问题亟待解决。本文基于代际交替模型（OLG）,将环境规制、健康人力资本及生产性资本纳入分析框架,指出环境规制通过影响健康人力资本和生产性资本投资的方式对经济增长产生正负两方面影响。当环境规制强度较低时,环境规制强度与经济增长率正相关;当环境规制强度过高时,则与经济增长率负相关,存在一个最优环境规制强度。在此基础上,利用我国1997-2015年30个省级的面板数据,通过广义矩估计进行实证研究,验证了在我国存在这种显著的"倒U型"的非线性关系。     

中国上市公司动态最优资本结构的理论模型

建立财务经济学"五力模型"理论,研究中国上市公司动态最优资本结构理论模型。研究表明中国上市公司动态资本结构的决定性因素就是其财务风险(价值耗散)的优化。具有动态资本结构的中国上市公司享有财务战略竞争优势,体现在这些企业总体上可以在与市场相同的营业总收入增长率的情况下,能够长期同时实现企业净利润、企业规模和企业经营性现金创造能力的更高累计增长水平;并且具有动态资本结构企业的市场价值与其资本结构呈反比例关系,从而解释了为什么许多优秀的企业长期选择较低负债比率的缘故。采用2002-2011年在我国A股市场上交易的998家上市公司为研究样本,以"带息债务与投入资本比"为资本结构形式,实证研究表明中国上市公司目前的动态资本结构区间为24%-40%,其中理想最优资本结构为30%,然而多数中国上市公司没有合理选择目标资本结构从而影响了企业市场价值的提升。     

二氧化碳排放、人力资本和内生经济增长研究

本文在人力资本内生增长模型的基础上引入二氧化碳排放，并将二氧化碳作为环境质量引入效用函数，利用最优控制理论求得稳态时经济增长速度、二氧化碳增长速度，分析了稳态时实现经济增长和二氧化碳减排双重目标的条件，证明人力资本可以克服物质资本边际报酬递减和二氧化碳排放带来的负效用，实现经济增长和二氧化碳减排。通过比较静态分析、参数校准等方法研究了稳态时各增长率的变动趋势。随后本文考察引入二氧化碳排放后内生增长模型的动态性和稳定性，笔者分别通过相位图、数值模拟的方法研究了系统的动态过程，证明了系统的稳定性。     

人力资本不平等对全要素生产力增长的影响研究

本文通过理论和实证分析研究了人力资本不平等对全要素生产力增长的影响。文章首先对人力资本不平等影响全要素生产力增长率的作用进行了数理分析。在实证研究部分,采用DEA包络分析法计算了1995-2005年30个省的全要素生产力增长率及其两个组成部分——技术进步率和效率变化率的曼奎斯特指数,利用30个省的面板数据分别用三个计量经济模型对人力资本水平和人力资本不平等与全要素生产力增长率、技术进步率和技术效率变化率之间的关系进行了实证检验。通过理论与实证分析提出本文的政策建议。     

经济发展潜能与人力资本质量

本文以人力资本数量和质量的测算为切入点,研究人均产出水平差异的成因与中国经济的发展潜能问题。本文依据真实经济周期模型确定人力资本数量的"基准水平",推导得出人力资本质量测算公式。由此测算全球经济、7个经济区域、4个经济组织、73个经济体的人力资本质量及年均增长率,按照测算结果从总量和人均这两个层面对其经济增长进行核算分析。本文发现,人力资本质量水平的跨国差异能够解释人均产出水平跨国差异的绝大部分,这两种差异将长期存在,即使高收入经济体之间也未显示出趋同的经验证据。测算结果表明,中国经济的人力资本质量水平显著落后于发达国家且其提升速率确已逐渐放缓。这一经济事实既决定了长期内中国仍将是发展中经济体,又成为制约中国经济可持续发展潜能的重要因素。因此,人力资本质量水平快速提升是中国经济实现潜在发展能力的关键,更是实现赶超目标的基础。而合乎数理逻辑、易于观测、在政策实践中可操作性较好且空间较大的人力资本质量提升途径是消费产出比的扩大。本文预测,若将中国经济消费产出比在未来30年内平稳扩大至2017年美国经济的0.865,仅此就能确保中国最晚可于2027年成为高收入经济体。同时,若能辅之以成熟度不断提高的市场经济体制并将政府支出侧重于持续优化整个教育体系、加大人力资本投资、强化基础研究,或将缩短中国成为发达经济体和领先经济体的时间进程。本文预测,若人力资本质量提升的年均率额外再增加1%,2024年,中国就可跻身高收入经济体;2049年,人均产出水平接近5万美元,达到美国的54.7%。     

Human Capital,Trade Openness and Growth in Argentina in the 20th Century

We estimate a production function that accounts for the economic performance of the country in the 20th century. We elaborate long term time series whereas most of the recent empirical studies on growth are based on cross section analysis. This approach allows us to follow the various regime changes that can be identified in the rich economic history of Argentina. To evaluate Total Factor Productivity (TFP) we initially test the classical Solow Model. We estimate the speed of convergence of TFP and obtain a non convergence result. This speed of convergence has declined since the 1930s, and we find a phenomenon of divergence in the period 1970–90. We then analyse the impact on production of additional variables recently highlighted in the endogenous growth literature such as the process of catch up of foreign technical progress, human capital and trade openness. Chow tests for this extended production function give us a strong probability of changes in the growth regimes. The estimation, that takes into consideration the break points identified, shows that the impact of trade openness and foreign technology is not stable throughout the century. In what concerns the impact of education on economic growth, we find a strong effect of primary education on growth, and a weaker effect of secondary-university education.     

市场化程度、行业竞争与管理者薪酬增长

针对近年来我国上市公司管理者薪酬逐渐增长的现象,本文采用地区市场化程度和行业竞争这两个外部治理机制变量,检验了管理者权力理论对我国上市公司行业薪酬基准使用的解释力,研究结果表明:我国的上市公司在制定管理者薪酬契约时采用了行业薪酬基准,并由此导致了管理者薪酬的逐渐增长;而且对处于市场化程度较低地区以及被保护性行业的上市公司,外部治理机制的弱化增强了管理者对于薪酬契约的影响,因此,这些公司的管理者越可能因为公司采用行业薪酬基准而获得薪酬的增长;进一步地研究发现,与民营上市公司相比,由于国有上市公司的治理结构更为弱化,由此导致国有上市公司的管理者更可能通过采用行业薪酬基准来谋求薪酬的增长。本文的研究意义不仅在于支持了管理者权力理论对我国上市公司行业薪酬基准使用的解释力,而且对我国国有上市公司管理者薪酬增长更快的原因提供了一定的解释。     

INSTITUTION‐INDUCED PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES AND PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

This paper studies theoretically how the cross‐country differences in the institutional quality (IQ) of domestic credit markets shape the patterns of international capital flows when such IQ differences also cause productivity differences across countries. IQ affects productivity by changing productivity–agency‐cost trade‐offs across heterogeneous investment projects. Such institution‐induced productivity differences are shown to have effects on the investment and capital flows that are opposite of exogenous productivity differences. This implies that the overall effect of IQ could generate U‐shaped responses of the investment and capital flows. Among other things, this means that capital could flow from middle‐income countries to both low‐income and high‐income countries, and that, starting from a very low IQ, a country could experience both a growth and a current account surplus after a successful institutional reform. More generally, the results here provide some cautions when interpreting the empirical evidence on the role of productivity differences and institutional differences on capital flows. It also calls into question the validity of treating the degree of financial frictions as a proxy for the quality of financial institutions, as commonly done in the literature.     

The Roles of Bank and Trade Credits: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence

This study investigates the roles of bank and trade credits in a supply chain with a capital‐constrained retailer facing demand uncertainty. We evaluate the retailer's optimal order quantity and the creditors' optimal credit limits and interest rates in two scenarios. In the single‐credit scenario, we find the retailer prefers trade credit, if the trade credit market is more competitive than the bank credit market; otherwise, the retailer's preference of a specific credit type depends on the risk levels that the retailer would divert trade credit and bank credit to other risky investments. In the dual‐credit scenario, if the bank credit market is more competitive than the trade credit market, the retailer first borrows bank credit prior to trade credit, but then switches to borrowing trade credit prior to bank credit as the retailer's internal capital declines. In contrast, if the trade credit market is more competitive, the retailer borrows only trade credit. We further analytically prove that the two credits are complementary if the retailer's internal capital is substantially low but become substitutable as the internal capital grows, and then empirically validate this prediction based on a panel of 674 firms in China over the period 2001–2007.     

Equilibrium Financing in a Distribution Channel with Capital Constraint

There exist capital constraints in many distribution channels. We examine a channel consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer, where the retailer is capital constrained. The retailer may fund its business by borrowing credit either from a competitive bank market or from the manufacturer, provided the latter is willing to lend. When only one credit type (either bank or trade credit) is viable, we show that trade credit financing generally charges a higher wholesale price and thus becomes less attractive than bank credit financing for the retailer. When both bank and trade credits are viable, the unique equilibrium is trade credit financing if production cost is relatively low but is bank credit financing otherwise. We also study the case where both the retailer and the manufacturer are capital constrained and demonstrate that, to improve the overall supply chain efficiency, the bank should finance the manufacturer if production cost is low but finance the retailer otherwise. Our analysis further suggests that the equilibrium region of trade credit financing shrinks as demand variability or the retailer's internal capital level increases.     

中国国情分析框架:五大资本及动态变化(1980-2003)

基于现代经济增长理论和世界银行的增长质量分析框架,提出新的基于物质资本、国际资本、人力资本、自然资本和知识资本的国情综合分析框架,界定了五大资本和总资本及计算方法,以此定量计算和分析了中国1980￣2003年五大资本和总资本的动态变化。结果表明:改革开放以来,知识资本、国际资本、人力资本和国际资本的总量快速增长,增速大大高于同期经济增长率;由于五大资本均有不同程度的提高,导致总资本大幅度跃升;国际资本和自然资本对总资本的提升做出最大贡献。五大资本变动揭示中国大发展背后持续增强的多重驱动力,中国进一步的成功发展,需要继续实施加速积累和有效利用各类资本的综合战略。     

资金约束供应链RFID投资决策与融资优化

本文以一个供应商和一个存在库存错放的资金约束零售商组成的两级供应链为研究对象,探讨了供应链成员采用无线射频识别（Radio Frequency Identification,RFID）技术的决策及融资选择问题。基于报童模型构建了供应链成员是否采用RFID技术、以及零售商选择贸易信贷融资或银行融资四种情景下的收益模型,求解出链上各成员的最优收益并探讨了RFID采用决策及融资选择策略。研究发现：资金约束零售商通过银行借贷融资可以获得更多的融资金额,但是其选择贸易信贷融资的意愿随着自有资金的减少而增强;当零售商自有资金适中时,随着错放率的上升或RFID成本的降低,零售商从银行融资向贸易信贷融资转变;银行融资在一定程度上能够缓解零售商的库存错放问题。     

Sustaining the Buyout Governance Model: Inside Secondary Management Buyout Boards

This paper examines the impact of private equity (PE) directors and their human capital on operating performance in a unique hand‐collected sample of 200 secondary management buyouts (SMBOs) during 2000–2015. It shows that PE directors’ human capital tends to play a statistically and economically important role in performance. Financial (rather than operational) experience of PE directors in acquiring PE firms tends to have a substantial impact on post‐SMBO profitability, while high‐level business education is especially important in post‐SMBO growth performance enhancement. Complementary expertise, provided by directors in buying and selling PE firms, plays an important role only in post‐SMBO growth improvements. Overall, the paper's results provide evidence that governance benefits of the buyout model tend not to be exhausted in the primary buyout stage, but the effects in the secondary buyout phase depend on the nature of PE directors’ human capital resource, notably in respect of the balance between board monitoring and advisory roles. This study therefore adds to growing evidence on how the ownership and life‐cycle nature of firms affect sustainability of boards fulfilling their roles. The results are robust to sample selection bias, different types of PE firms and different measures of human capital.     

股东价值取向差异与股东利益最大化实践问题——佛山照明案例分析

本文比较分析了业务发展策略、投资行为和红利政策截然不同的2家同行企业上市以来,短期及长期股票投资收益,长期经营业绩和行业竞争地位。在短期投机交易获利偏好主导股票市场的环境下,佛山照明坚持基于增强主业产品市场持续竞争优势的业务发展策略和高派现政策,嘉宝集团采取迎合股票市场短期投机交易偏好的业务发展策略及高股票股利政策。分析结果表明,佛山照明没有给部分短期投机交易的A股股东创造资本高收益,但为大多数长期股东创造了价值。嘉宝集团则相反。本文进一步讨论了“股东价值最大化”在实践中面临的问题。我们认为,股票市场投资者及上市公司控股股东的价值取向都会多样化,股东价值最大化是股东细分市场上的目标股东价值最大化,而不是笼统的所有不同风险偏好的股东价值最大化。本文结果对上市公司股东价值最大化实践、正确运用金融经济学实证研究方法等有启示意义。     

自由贸易试验区设立能矫正资本错配吗？——兼论产业集聚的调节效应

本研究尝试将自由贸易试验区和产业集聚同时纳入资本配置效率分析框架,将自贸区设立作为一项准自然实验,利用2004-2017年中国196个地级及以上城市面板数据,采用双重差分模型和系统广义矩估计方法,评估自贸区设立对资本错配的影响以及产业集聚的调节效应。研究发现：资本错配在时间维度上存在“路径依赖”现象,自贸区设立在整体上加剧了资本错配。全样本情况下,不同类型的产业集聚在自贸区设立对资本错配的影响中发挥了不同的作用,制造业与生产性服务业协同集聚有助于自贸区发挥对资本错配的矫正作用,而单纯的制造业或生产性服务业集聚则强化了自贸区对资本错配的加剧。区分资本错配类型后发现,在资本配置不足情形下,产业集聚在自贸区影响资本错配过程中的调节效应与全样本情况下一致;而在资本配置过度的情形下,制造业、生产性服务业以及二者的协同集聚均有助于自贸区发挥出对资本错配的矫正作用。围绕上述问题的理论阐释和实证检验,为矫正资本错配,提高资本配置效率、促进自贸区改革创新和实体经济高质量协同发展提供了丰富的政策蕴含。     

Setting corporate objectives

This paper states that ‘the resources are raw materials, people and capital. The private sector company can survive as such only by using all three resources efficiently’.These statements summarize the need not only for the setting of Corporate Objectives but the cogent and incontrovertible argument for such objectives being financial.Let no one doubt the painful process that is involved in determining the right objectives for the corporate entity or, indeed, for any entity which seeks to survive and continue.This is why the process of setting, accepting and working towards objectives has to start from the top but must continue throughout the whole organization. Who am I and where am I going?—is a question that is as valid for the Company as it is for the individual.The corporate objective of the Fisons Group is consistently to achieve profitable growth in real terms by increasing earnings per share and raising the return on capital employed.I hope you find this paper as constructive to you as it has been to me and my colleagues.     

Human Capital Accumulation,Social Mobility and Migrations

This paper studies the effects of migrations on growth and income distribution when social mobility is imperfect. Workers migrate in response to differences in expected wages between home and a foreign country, but their choice depends also whether they qualified themselves as skilled workers by accumulating human capital or not. Such an activity has a cost, which depends on each agent’s family background: sons of skilled workers have lower human capital accumulation costs. The effects of labour migrations on per capita income depend only on the degree of social mobility: if there is a difference in the cost of accumulating human capital for the sons of educated and non-educated people, migrations reduce total earnings of unskilled workers in the receiving country, and increase those of skilled workers.