How Policy Conditions the Impact of Presidential Speeches on Legislative Success*

Objective. Although the impact of the president's rhetoric on public opinion remains unfound, it appears to increase the president's success in Congress. This article argues that instead of moving public opinion, presidential speeches act as informational cues for legislators and holds that the impact of the president's public speeches in Congress is conditional on the salience and complexity of the policy voted on by Congress. Method. I use probit methodology to examine the effect of presidential rhetoric on the likelihood of presidential success on House roll‐call votes from 1989–2000. An interactive model assesses the conditioning impact a policy's salience and complexity have on the relationship between presidential rhetoric and legislative success. Results. Presidential rhetoric increases the president's legislative success on votes pertaining to policies that are both salient and complex. Conclusion. Presidential rhetoric matters to the president's relationship with Congress, despite the limited impact it appears to have on public opinion.     

日本行政立法过程中的意见公募程序析论

日本行政机关的立法权有职权立法权与授权立法权两种类型。行政机关在行使其立法职能时要履行意见公募程序,即向社会主体公开征求法规草案意见,它基本遵循草案公示、意见征集以及意见反馈这样的过程。在日本行政立法实践产生了一定的影响与效果,并逐步形成为制度化的措施,在制度建构、适用例外、意见反馈等方面对我国法案公开征求意见制度有一定的借鉴意义。     

Sociology During China's Process of Modernization

I.TheEffortsandAchievementsMadeintheFieldofSociologVAfterItWasReconstructedinChinaTherestitutionofsociologyinChinaproceededsmoothlyandrapidlyafteritwasstartedin1978,sinceitsatisfiedtheneedsofreformandmodernization.By1996,therewerethirty-fiveinstitutesofsociologyintwenty-sixprovinces,andtwenty-fiveuniversitiesinseventeenprovinceshadsociologydepartmentsoradmittedstudentsmajoringinsociology.Therearenowaround3,000sociologyworkers,including160professorsandresearchers,and500associateprofessorsa…     

Presidential voting in the west

Voters in the western United States are becoming more Republican than the rest of the country in their presidential choices. The Solid West has replaced the Solid South as a reality of presidential campaigns. This is in spite of a long term national trend away from strong party loyalties. This article examines the ten states of the Interior West at the county level during the eight presidential elections from 1956 through 1984. All parts of the region did not simultaneously embrace the Republican Party from the onset of the New Western Normal Vote episode. Those areas that lagged were characterized by sizable employment in forestry and mining, large Hispanic or Native American populations, or were among the region's few large urban concentrations. Some of these areas still remain outside the Republican fold in presidential elections. The overall magnitude of change in Republicanism in the 549 counties was not uniform, but rather impacted some areas such as Nevada and Idaho to a much larger degree than others such as Montana and the Dakotas. This article generally confirms Archer and Taylor's assertion that the Western Periphery constitutes a new Republican heartland. But some Indian and Hispanic populations continue to vote for Democratic presidential candidates. Rural areas with strong organized labor such as the mining and forestry areas of Montana, and big cities like Denver are only weakly Republican. Hence, the conversion to strong and unwaivering Republicanism is not total and may never occur.     

Parents' Experiences During the Family Reunification Process: A Chinese Context

Family reunification is always an integral part of a permanency plan and is a preferable outcome for children in care. However, reunification is not straightforward, involving many subsequent negotiations between parents, children, and social workers, sparking various emotions and struggles among the involved parties. Current research on parental experiences of family reunification is predominantly of a cross‐sectional nature, and rarely reflects the parents' experience throughout the process. This paper reports the results of a qualitative panel study aimed at exploring the experiences Chinese parents have during the process of children returning home from care. Seven parents were recruited. Data was collected at three time points and informants narrated their experiences from both a retrospective and prospective perspective. The findings showed that all parents struggled to become competent caregivers. Three salient themes were identified: inferiority, adjustment, and challenge. The parents' experiences revealed the prevalence of stigmatization among social work professions toward parents. This study recommends re‐focusing the policy direction and intervention strategies of out‐of‐home care from family coercion to family support.     

美国产品责任"立法"改革探析

美国20世纪70、80年代发生了两次“产品责任保险危机”,产品责任法也因此被攻击了20多年。在制造商和保险商利益集团的积极推动之下,美国掀起了一场产品责任改革运动,历时也已20年。产品责任改革的焦点主要集中于两点:(1)将产品责任法从扎根于历史的州普通法转移到联邦成文法之下,以求得统一性;(2)限制原告在产品责任诉讼中获得赔偿的数额。然而,使产品责任法联邦化的企图已经失败,而在各州的产品责任改革却取得了巨大的成功。回顾产品责任改革的历程以及其改革的原因对清楚地认识美国产品责任改革有重要意义。     

Gender Differences in Verbal Communication between Popular and Unpopular Children During an Interactive Task

This study investigated gender differences in communication effectiveness between popular and unpopular 5‐ to 7‐year‐old children. Because previous research suggests that there may be gender differences in how popular and unpopular children communicate with each other, 24 same‐gender pairs (each containing a popular and an unpopular child) were videotaped playing a game. Communication effectiveness was assessed by measuring the incidence of forms of speech associated with successful collaboration (questions, directives, and elaborations). Results revealed a popularity by gender interaction. Popular girls used a greater incidence of these forms of speech compared to unpopular girls. By contrast, there was no difference in the speech of popular and unpopular boys. Findings are interpreted in relation to the nature of the task and the characteristics of popular and unpopular children.     

The Impact of Presidential Speeches on the Bureaucracy*

Objective. Scholars have long held that presidents use various tools to control the federal bureaucracy. Yet, despite their importance to presidents in achieving their policy goals in Congress, few scholars have examined the impact of presidential speeches on bureaucratic activity. This article analyzes the impact of both positive and negative policy signals on civil rights policy in the bureaucracy. Method. I test this hypothesis using speeches coded from the Public Papers of the Presidents and their impact on criminal cases filed by the Civil Rights Division over time. Given heteroskedasticity in the dependent variable, log‐linear time‐series methods are appropriate. Results. The president's positive speeches increase the number of criminal civil rights cases filed in U.S. District Court. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 also has had a significant, positive impact on bureaucratic activity. Conclusions. In part because bureaucrats have discretion to resist presidential preferences that oppose an agency's core task, negative signals do not affect the implementation of civil rights policy. Yet, positive presidential speeches are available to presidents who may wish to influence the bureaucracy.     

宏观架构与立法审思--关于婚姻家庭制度的完善

婚姻家庭制度的完善,不仅需要解决立法技术问题,更需要解决立法观念与立法意识问题.要使<婚姻法>成为具有前瞻性、适用性、科学性的法典,则须认真思考如下问题<婚姻法>以独立法典的模式出现,既可兼顾立法传统,又能顺应制定民法典的趋势;确立婚约制度,不仅是婚俗生活的要求,也是完善婚姻家庭立法的要求;离婚损害赔偿制度是对婚姻自由原则的补充,有助于对善意当事人权益的维护;建立完备的亲权制度势在必行.     

The Timing of Presidential Cinema*

Objective. Researchers have examined the social meaning of political cinema; however, little research places film into its contemporary political and economic context. Therefore, I examine the timing of the production and release of presidential cinema. Methods. The data are comprised of major motion picture releases from the years 1953–2004 that include a U.S. president as a character. Regression analysis is used to determine how the temporal release of movies featuring a president corresponds to social realities. Results. I find that the release of presidential cinema is correlated with the party that controls the actual White House and with the number of consecutive terms that the same party has been in the White House. More films with presidents are released during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations and more films with presidents are released during first rather than second terms. This appears more acute during presidential election years. The state of the national economy affects the release of presidential cinema as well. Strong economies lead to the release of more films with presidents. Conclusions. This suggests that popular film content is affected not only by filmmaker whim and creativity, but also by measurable contemporary political and economic conditions. Future studies investigating film content should account for how national trends affect popular entertainment.     

Changes in Gender Structure During the Process of De-agriculturalization in Rural Areas South of the Changjiang River

I. BackgroundSince the 1980s China has been experiencing a rapid transformationin rural areas brought about by de-agriculturalization. Non-farm producein the rural areas in Jiangsu, a province with a high degree of deagriculturalization, accounted for 85% of the total social product of theseareas in 1995. In southern Jiangsu, e. g., Wuxi prefecture, the figurewas as high as 96. 1%. 1 Non-farm industries have replaced traditionalagriculture as the leading industries in rural areas.The proces…     

论我国证据法的立法模式

英美国家独立制定证据法 ,而大陆法国家将证据法融入诉讼法或者实体法中。笔者认为证据立法模式的选择需要综合考虑立法技术、与诉讼法的协调、证据法的实际功能以及法律传统的承继与法律移植的接受等诸多因素。为此在我国现有诉讼法的框架内补充完善证据法规范 ,即通过修改诉讼法一并完善证据立法应当是最佳的选择路径