Threats,chances and opportunities: social capital in Europe in times of social and economic hardship

The 2008 financial and economic crisis, characterized by an economic breakdown unparalleled since the Great Depression, provides a unique opportunity to study the relationships between economic developments and social capital by asking: How does social capital change in times of social and economic hardship? In order to explore the trends of social capital development, data from the European Social Survey 2002–2016 are used. The results suggest that economic decline – particularly increasing unemployment – is associated with a decline in social capital, especially in southern European countries. Furthermore, increasing long-term interest rates as an indicator of government future debt sustainability appear to be detrimental for social capital development. The impact of economic decline, however, appears to be contingent upon the functioning of state institutions: especially in countries characterized by well-functioning governments social capital is significantly less affected by economic decline than other countries.     

Financing and managing epidemiological-economic crises: Are we ready for another outbreak?

An epidemiological-economic crisis presents countries with two significant challenges, in addition to the health challenge - a growing deficit due to fiscal policy measures, and a shortage of essential workers needed to manage the crisis successfully. In this study, we propose an outline for economic readiness in case of a future crisis in general, and a pandemic outbreak in particular. Through the establishment of a dedicated income-based tax-financed budget aimed at funding government excess expenditure during a crisis, and by adopting a reserve program in the essential sector of the economy, social and economic costs can be reduced.     

Gender, social capital and location: understanding the interactions

In recent years, governments in many post-industrial nations have re-discovered 'community'. Social capital and neighbourhood renewal are key concepts underpinning policies aimed at building the capacities of communities to respond to the problems facing them. Despite the apparent consensus amongst Anglo-American governments about the use of social capital, and related concepts, as a guide for policy formulation these ideas remain hotly contested amongst social policy commentators. Against a general backdrop of disquiet about the application of social capital initiatives to communities facing significant social and economic challenges, some commentators highlight the curious inattention to gender in debates about social capital. This is all the more troubling given the apparent reliance of social capital initiatives on the informal network-building activities often undertaken by women. In this article we present findings from an empirical study of social capital creation across four geographically diverse communities. We show that the relationship between gender and social capital is complex. We argue that the 'one-size-fits-all' approach to social capital formulation fails to recognise gendered patterns of social capital formulation, but so, too, do analyses of gender that neglect the complex interactions between gender and other factors, particularly location, age and income. We argue for approaches to policy formulation that recognise local differences, including differences between and amongst men and women in social capital creation.     

The performance of the Australian welfare system in a time of neoliberal economic reform

“Neoliberalism”, both as a body of theory and as a set of policies and practices, is commonly seen as unsympathetic, even antagonistic, to the welfare state. In the period from the mid‐1980s to the global financial crisis of 2007–08, Australia underwent very considerable “neoliberal” economic policy reform. What happened to the Australian welfare system and to Australia's socioeconomic egalitarianism in this period? To shed light on that question three kinds of trend are tracked. The first is household taxes and social expenditure in both cash and kind, using fiscal incidence analysis where the main metric is “net benefits”. The second is economic inequality, as measured by the distribution of incomes and wealth. The third is the performance of the labor market, as measured by earned incomes and unemployment rates. The article concludes with an attempt to integrate the evidence collected from these three sources. The general conclusion is that the Australian welfare system did not follow the pessimists' predictions. The welfare system grew in size and redistributive quantum. Wage levels rose strongly, while unemployment rates fell. Overall, income inequality increased to a small extent, though mainly before the full economic reform process was in place, while wealth inequality changed little.     

Citizens' attitudes towards economic insecurity and government after the 2007 financial tsunami: A Hong Kong and Taiwan comparison

Wang KY‐T, Wong C‐k, Tang K‐L. Citizens' attitudes towards economic insecurity and government after the 2007 financial tsunami: A Hong Kong and Taiwan comparison The purpose of this study was to investigate people's attitudes to economic insecurity and government in Hong Kong and Taiwan after the financial tsunami of 2007. Random sampling telephone surveys were conducted in July 2009. These are the main conclusions: First, the most vulnerable groups hurt by the financial crisis were low‐income families and people who had lost their job or were afraid of losing it. This implies that the old policy issue of social stratification and the emerging policy issue of employment insecurity coexisted during the financial crisis. Second, personal experiences of economic insecurity had an influence on people's perceptions of the severity of the economic crisis at the societal level. Third, citizens had ambivalent feelings about public interventions during the crisis. Fourth, there were both convergence and divergence between Hong Kong and Taiwan with regard to attitudes to particular issues. The policy implications of these findings are discussed in the final section of this article.     

Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Soundness and Public Social Expenditure: A Lesson for the Future Direction of the Korean Welfare State

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between fiscal soundness and public social expenditure in advanced welfare states so as to reconsider the conventional wisdom that welfare expenditure aggravates national finances. Through this, I propose the clues of building the sustainable Korean welfare state. I focus on the interdependent relationship between fiscal soundness and public social expenditure based on fiscal sociology. Considering this interaction, I form two sets of simultaneous equations models and employ a special statistical method, three‐stage least squares (3SLS). The results regarding the causal relationship between fiscal soundness and public social spending indicate that, if public welfare spending is increased, fiscal health is damaged. However, as many comparative social policy researchers have pointed out, outcomes of welfare states differ from country to country according to the composition of public welfare spending. Specifically, some welfare states with priority given to social services such as vocational training or childcare services have maintained the stability of public finance. By extension, we can say that public social expenditures have a positive influence on fiscal soundness based on the composition of social expenditures. Finally, it is possible to create financially sustainable welfare states.     

Economic crisis and social policy reform in Korea

The economic crisis that broke out in Korea in December 1997 has had a chilling impact on social development in the country. Today unemployment is the highest that Korea has experienced in the past thirty years. This paper aims to examine the impact of the economic crisis on social development and the role of public policy to mitigate the problems caused by the crisis. The economic crisis has hit vulnerable groups harder, increased the proportion of part-time and daily workers, and reversed the trend of steady improvement of income distribution. The economic crisis along with the trend of aging population, globalization, and competition calls for an expanded role of social policy, which the Korean government has neglected for a long time. The main targets of social policy reform in Korea include the expansion of government programs and safety nets for the unemployed and redesigning the national pension and health insurance scheme to provide adequate income security as well as to improve the system sustainability.     

The Fiscal Crisis of National Health Insurance in the Republic of Korea: In Search of a New Paradigm

In 2001, National Health Insurance (NHI) in Korea, the social insurance system for health care with universal population coverage, experienced a serious fiscal crisis as its accumulated surplus was depleted. This fiscal crisis is attributed to its chronic imbalance: health care expenditure has increased more rapidly than have insurance contributions. The recent failure in implementing pharmaceutical reform was a further blow to the deteriorating fiscal status of the NHI. Although the NHI has since recovered from the immediate fiscal crisis, this has mainly been because of a temporary increase in government subsidy into the NHI. The strong influence of the medical profession in health policy‐making remains a major barrier to the introduction of policy changes, such as a reform of the payment system to strengthen the fiscal foundations of the NHI. Korea also has to restructure its national health insurance in an era of very rapid population ageing. A new paradigm is called for in the governance of the NHI: to empower groups of consumers and payers in the policy and major decision‐making process of the NHI. The fiscal crisis in Korean national health insurance sheds light on the vulnerability of the social health insurance system to financial instability, the crucial role of provider payment schemes in health cost containment, the importance of governance in health policy, and the unintended burdens of health care reform on health care financing systems.     

破除对马克思资本积累理论的二重曲解

关于马克思资本积累理论存在着二重曲解：其一,把经济危机对资本主义生产方式的影响同资本积累的历史趋势混淆起来,即＂危机＂就意味着＂灭亡＂的理解;其二,把马克思的经济危机理论与现代社会生产方式的生存与发展割裂或对立起来的理解,即＂危机＂就意味着发展＂停滞＂的观点。与上述对马克思关于经济危机理论形而上学的理解相反,经济危机既是现代社会生产方式的存在方式和内在机制,也是这一生产方式发展的环节,还是实现经济与社会发展平衡、产业结构调整、全社会范围的利益格局重组等生产力发展的特殊实现形式。     

Social Welfare Reform Since the 1997 Economic Crisis in Korea: Achievement, Limits, and Future Prospects

Social welfare reform has been implemented in Korea since the 1997 financial crisis. A dominant concern of the reform was on equality and social solidarity. A major means to this end was establishing universalistic social insurance programs like those in developed welfare states. The reform efforts produced some positive results but were not greatly successful. Income polarization and the deteriorating economic status of low-income families have become big social issues. Many low-income families have not gained many benefits from the reformed social security system. The rapid aging of the population is creating an exploding demand for social spending, risking the fiscal sustainability of major social insurance programs. The reform experience suggests that a social welfare system based on western-style universal social insurance may be too expensive to sustain and not very effective in protecting disadvantaged families in Korea. More attention is being paid to expenditure control and efficiency. Social insurance programs may need to be leaner than those in traditional welfare states. Targeted programs, such as the "making work pay" policy, are likely to be expanded more broadly to low-income families. The future of the Korean welfare state may hinge on successful employment support for working families and extensive investment in their human capital.     

The housing fulcrum: Balancing economic and social factors in housing research and policy

Abstract

We discuss the pivotal role that housing plays for both social and economic outcomes. All people need to be housed, and housing circumstances help determine social outcomes, especially for vulnerable groups. We outline an analytical framework that treats housing as a dynamic system, incorporating the life‐cycles of both individuals/households and houses. Each is long‐lived; decisions impact on housing for decades. This approach is relevant to the development of housing research and housing policy. We illustrate the issues with reference to the relationship between rental yields and measures of deprivation across New Zealand. The surprising nature of this relationship has consequences regarding potential poverty traps and wealth disparities. While highlighting an important housing market issue, any policy response to this issue is complicated by the need to take account of the life‐cycles of both individuals and of houses, and by the long‐lasting impacts of decisions.     

Fiscal Policy and Urban and Rural Residents＇ Marginal Propensity to Consume

基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20％。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,．除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。     

The Korean welfare state: a paradox of expansion in an era of globalisation and economic crisis

When the Asian financial crisis took a heavy toll on Korea in the late 1990s, policy makers responded by extending welfare policy. For many analysts, this was a paradoxical move, marking a fundamental reconfiguration of the social policy system. This article contests that interpretation. It examines the changes made to Korean social policy in recent years, and considers their impact on the Korean welfare state. It notes both that welfare extensions have been comparatively limited, and that they have often formed part of wider attempts to boost labour market flexibility. It thus concludes that limited expansion of the Korean welfare state is chiefly an attempt to bolster industrial competitiveness and economic growth. For now, Korea retains the productivist social policy orientation that has long characterised it. It also concedes, however, that in the future underlying social change, notably a rapidly ageing population, may prompt policy makers to make significant changes to the Korean welfare state.     

Fiscal harmonization in view of the Euro adoption: Economic implications for Poland

In this paper, we investigate the ex ante effects of fiscal policy harmonization that might be necessary for the adoption of the common currency on economic growth in Poland using a neoclassical dynamic two-sector general equilibrium model. We study two fiscal policy scenarios. In the first one, we adjust all taxes to German and EU-27 levels, respectively, while in the second one, we change only consumption taxes to German and EU-27 levels. We find that in the first scenario, the current Polish taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to lower capital taxation. However, in the second scenario, German and EU-27 taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to the lower consumption tax on capital-intensive good. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that fiscal policy with lower taxes on capital and capital-intensive goods can generate a higher rate of growth in the long-run. In the case of fiscal harmonization, our findings propose adopting only German or EU-27 consumption tax structure into the Polish tax system.     

互不信任的群体何能产生合作:对XW案例的事件史分析

本文的研究主旨与制度规则和社会资本建设的关系有关。与现有研究主要将社会资本视为自变量并论述其对社会发展之作用的视角不同，本文将社会资本视为因变量，追踪具有公共品性质的通用社会资本如何生发，尤其是在不利的群体冲突条件下获得生长的原因。研究发现，通用的社会资本不必然在社会关系中自然出现，它依托于特定的公共社会规则而生长和巩固。XW案例中出现的社会资本扩展——村民合作的广度由宗堂内转化为跨宗堂，明显是公共决策规则革新带来的结果。本文描述了这一通用社会资本的产生机制，以推进对合作行为的改进和社会资本的扩展，展开理论阐释。本文同时提示了有关政策改进的可能性：运用制度规则的突破进行自我改造，有助于打破群体冲突和控制权竞争的循环，提升基层社会治理的品质。     

The effect of the rescue plans and the need for policies to increase economic growth

This paper evaluates the economic impact of discretionary fiscal and monetary actions taken in the United States during 2020 and 2021. The fiscal actions are The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or the “CARES” Act, passed in March 2020; The Consolidated Appropriations Act, passed in December 2020; and The American Rescue Plan Act, passed in March 2021. The paper focuses on the impact of the “economic impact payments” that underlie these fiscal actions. The paper also examines discretionary monetary policy actions taken during the same period. The overall implication is that there is a need to return to policies that increase economic growth and stability, including rules-based fiscal and monetary policy, rather than to continue with these one-time discretionary actions.     

The economic consequences of the welfare state

What are the economic and employment consequences of larger social insurance programmes? Are larger welfare states diverting resources from economic activity and distorting the investment decisions of firms? I examine theoretical and empirical research on the economic consequences of the welfare state. This review shows that the predictions of a negative relationship between higher levels of social protection and growth have not been borne out in the data. Both insurance programmes and other policies that increase investment in human capital or the overall productivity of workers generate important economic externalities that outweigh the potentially distortionary effects of higher taxes. Empirical studies also fail to uncover a consistent negative relationship between larger welfare states and the level of employment. The employment consequences of the welfare state are mediated by existing institutions and policies—such as the level of centralization of the wage bargaining system—which affect the redistribution of the costs of higher taxes among workers and firms. As a result, the employment consequences of larger welfare states are non-linear.     

The Ageing of Australia: Fiscal Sustainability,Intergenerational Equity and Inter‐temporal Fiscal Balance

Australian public policy makers are presently confronted with significant demographic changes that will profoundly affect the formulation of rational economic and social policy over the long term. This paper seeks to outline the potential impact of this demographic change and place it in historical perspective. The challenges posed by an ageing population for fiscal policy are explored and it is stressed that policy inertia will invite severe costs in future. It is argued that an appropriate policy stance should be developed in the context of a framework for inter‐temporal fiscal balance not only to focus on long‐run fiscal sustainability, but also to include considerations of intergenerational equity.     

基本养老保险覆盖面扩展决定因素实证研究

扩大基本养老保险覆盖面是我国社会保障制度改革的优先目标之一。本文通过对19982003年分省数据的实证分析,发现各省之间的基本养老保险覆盖面的差异,主要是由它们的经济发展水平和市场化程度这两个宏观经济因素与基本养老金给付标准和财政对社会保障补助支出这两个政策因素共同决定的。基于这些发现,考虑到我国经济持续发展和市场化改革深化的趋势,我们对我国社会保障事业的发展持谨慎乐观的态度,并认为在目前,“低水平、高覆盖”仍然是一个符合国情、必须坚持的合理政策选择,地方政府应当在财力许可的范围内,增加对社会保障事业的财政投入。     

Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis

The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical studies have analyzed its effect on the probability of a banking crisis. Does macroprudential policy actually affect the probability of a banking crisis? Do other macroeconomic policies matter for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy? To answer these questions, this paper empirically investigates the effect of macroprudential policy on the probability of a banking crisis and its relationship with other macroeconomic policies. Specifically, using data on 65 countries from 2000 to 2016, we employ a probit model to analyze the effect of changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on crisis probability. Our results show that macroprudential policy is effective in changing the probability of a banking crisis via a credit channel and that its effectiveness depends on other macroeconomic policies. Changes in the LTV ratio are found to be effective in influencing the probability of a banking crisis in countries that have inflation targeting frameworks, floating exchange rate regimes, and/or no capital controls. Our results underscore the importance of policy coordination among different government bodies to design an appropriate macroprudential policy, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 crisis.