Instability,investment, disasters,and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change.     

日本工业化进程中人口因素对碳排放影响研究

近年来发达国家的统计数据显示,居民生活消费的直接与间接能源消耗已超过产业部门,成为碳排放的主要增长点。运用STIRPAT模型,研究日本工业化进程中人口因素对碳排放的影响,从人口与消费视角探讨碳排放问题,将对我国工业化阶段的碳减排起到一定的指导作用。提高低碳技术水平、控制人口规模、引导居民消费模式的合理转变将成为控制工业化进程中碳排放的有效手段。     

Intergenerational transfers in US county-level CO2 emissions, 2007

Research has shown that increases in carbon emissions and resulting climate change are not driven by population size alone, but also associated with industrialization, urbanization, and economic development. Further, industrialization and development may, in part, be driven by changing demographic structure, and in particular the process of population aging. Fluctuations in age composition shape aggregate production and consumption. Viewed through this lens, the carbon dioxide emissions of an analytical unit (county, province, state, nation) can be considered a product of its age composition. This analysis tests several demographic theories of age-specific production and consumption on US county-level carbon dioxide emissions. Using a modified STIRPAT framework, econometric estimates identify a positive correlation between county-level labor force participation and total carbon dioxide emissions. These effects are a result of general economic activity as opposed to growth only in energy intensive industrial sectors, a relationship that is widely hypothesized but under-developed in carbon emission estimates. In addition, results show larger households are associated with lower aggregate emissions, confirming the hypothesis that areas of declining household size will experience higher future emissions. In general, this research demonstrates the importance of adding nuance to emission estimates by integrating demographic dimensions beyond population size and growth.     

Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.     

The Measurement of Economic, Social and Environmental Performance of Countries: A Novel Approach

This paper presents a new analytical framework for assessing spatial disparities among countries. It takes for granted that the analysis of a country’s performance cannot be limited solely to either economic or social factors. The aim of the paper is to combine relevant economic and ‘non-economic’ (mainly social) aspects of a country’s performance in an integrated logical framework. Based on this idea, a structural simultaneous equation model will be presented and estimated in order to explore the direction of the causal relationship between economic and non-economic aspects of a country’s performance. Furthermore, an exploration of the trajectory that each country has registered over time along a virtuous path will be offered. By means of a matrix persistency/transition analysis, the countries will be classified in clusters of good/bad performance. One of the most interesting conclusions concerns the inability of most countries to turn the higher educational skills of the population into greater economic performance over time. In addition, our analysis also shows that making an accurate picture record and formulating related policy aiming at environmental care is highly desirable. It is surprising that only a few countries have reached a favourable economic and environmental performance simultaneously.     

Social demographic change and autism

Parental age at child’s birth—which has increased for U.S. children in the 1992–2000 birth cohorts—is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association: de novo mutations, which are deletions, insertions, and duplications of DNA in the germ cells that are not present in the parents ’ DNA. Along the way, we show that a demographic eye on the rising prevalence of autism leads to three major discoveries. First, the estimated heritability of autism has been dramatically overstated. Second, heritability estimates can change over remarkably short periods of time because of increases in germ cell mutations. Third, social demographic change can yield genetic changes that, at the population level, combine to contribute to the increased prevalence of autism.     

The Determinants of Neighborhood Satisfaction: Racial Proxy Revisited

Understanding the factors that drive individuals’ residential preferences is a critical issue in the study of racial segregation. An important debate within this field is whether individuals—especially whites—prefer to live in predominantly white neighborhoods because they wish to avoid the social problems that may be more likely to occur in predominantly black neighborhoods (i.e., the racial proxy hypothesis) or because of racial factors that go beyond these social class–related characteristics. Through a multilevel analysis of data from the 2004–2005 Chicago Area Study and several administrative sources, we assess the extent to which the racial proxy hypothesis describes neighborhood satisfaction among whites, African Americans, and Latinos living across a broad range of neighborhood contexts. The racial proxy perspective applies weakly to whites’ satisfaction: whites report less satisfaction in neighborhoods with more minority residents, and only some of their dissatisfaction can be attributed to local social characteristics. The racial proxy hypothesis applies more strongly to blacks’ and Latinos’ satisfaction. In some cases, especially for Latinos, higher levels of satisfaction in integrated neighborhoods can largely be attributed to the fact that these places have better socioeconomic conditions and fewer social problems than predominantly minority communities. At the same time, effects of racial/ethnic composition persist in unique and somewhat divergent ways for blacks and Latinos, supporting the assertion that racial composition matters, above and beyond its relation to social class. Taken together, these findings suggest that individuals balance both socioeconomic and race-related concerns in their residential preferences.     

Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950–1990

Economic growth depends on human resources and human needs. The demographic age structure shapes both of these factors. We study five-year data from the OECD countries 1950–1990 in the framework of an age structure augmented neoclassical growth model with gradual technical adjustment. The model performs well in both pooled and panel estimations. The growth patterns of GDP per worker (labor productivity) in the OECD countries are to a large extent explained by age structure changes. The 50–64 age group has a positive influence, and the group above 65 contributes negatively, while younger age groups have ambiguous effects. However, the mechanism behind these age effects is not yet resolved. Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 2 July 1998     

城镇化与碳排放量的关系研究——基于省会城市和直辖市的实证分析

采用1992-2011年中国省会城市和直辖市的面板数据．运用STIRPAT模型和面板变系数方法实证分析了城镇化因素对城市碳排放量的影响,采用城镇化率和城镇化增长率指标对研究城市进行区域划分,具体分析城镇化进程对不同城市碳排放量的影响研究。结果表明：城镇化对碳排放有正向作用,城镇化对不同城市碳排量的影响存在差异,城镇化水平越高,城镇化对碳排放的影响就越小;城镇化发展速度越快,城镇化对碳排放的影响越大。根据研究结论,对不同城市群,给出了相应的对策建议。     

Cohort Effects or Period Effects? Fertility Decline in South Korea in the Twentieth Century

This study examines if the Korean fertility decline is driven by long-term cohort changes or by fluctuating period changes. By using a classic age–period–cohort model, a moment decomposition method, and a new summary fertility measure—‘cross-sectional average fertility’—I show that the Korean fertility decline is primarily driven by period changes and that delayed childbearing has important consequences for the onset of fertility decline. These findings are in line with the existing literature in fertility changes such as theories of fertility transitions and sociological accounts of fertility changes in Western countries in the twentieth century. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.     

Population aging and environmental quality in OECD countries: evidence from sulfur dioxide emissions data

Recent literature has suggested that population aging may shape energy demand and related emissions. Recent scholarship also suggests that emissions play a role in contemporary climate change and, as such, understanding the effect of population compositional change has considerable environmental policy importance. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the macro-level relationship between population aging and emissions of sulfur dioxide. We extend a standard macroeconomic estimation function by including the age composition of the population. In doing so, we separate, for the first time in the literature on aging and the environment, the life-cycle dimension of the age structure from its cohort dimension. We utilize data representing a balanced panel of 25 OECD countries during the period from 1970 to 2000. Consistent with our expectations, we find that societies with a low proportion of young and a high proportion of senior citizens emit more sulfur dioxide. At the same time, our results suggest that a high proportion of individuals born before 1960 is positively correlated to national sulfur dioxide emissions. Our study contributes to understanding of past emission patterns in OECD countries and the findings may allow for improvements in future emission projections.     

On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum

This article decomposes total population momentum into two constituent and multiplicative parts: “nonstable” momentum and “stable” momentum. Nonstable momentum depends on deviations between a population’s current age distribution and its implied stable age distribution. Stable momentum is a function of deviations between a population’s implied stable and stationary age distributions. In general, the factorization of total momentum into the product of nonstable and stable momentum is a very good approximation. The factorization is exact, however, when the current age distribution is stable or when observed fertility is already at replacement. We provide numerical illustrations by calculating nonstable, stable, and total momentum for 176 countries, the world, and its major regions. In short, the article brings together disparate strands of the population momentum literature and shows how the various kinds of momentum fit together into a single unifying framework.     

Ethnic population projections for the UK, 2001–2051

This paper reports on projections of the United Kingdom’s ethnic group populations for 2001–2051. For the years 2001–2007 we estimate fertility rates, survival probabilities, internal migration probabilities and international migration flows for 16 ethnic groups and 355 UK areas. We make assumptions about future component rates, probabilities and flows and feed these into our projection model. This model is a cohort-component model specified for single years of age to 100+. To handle this large state space, we employed a bi-regional model. We implement four projections: (1) a benchmark projection that uses the component inputs for 2001; (2) a trend projection where assumptions beyond 2007 are adjusted to those in the UK 2008-based National Population Projections (NPP); (3) a projection that modifies the NPP assumptions and (4) a projection that uses a different emigration assumption. The projected UK population ranges between a low of 63 millions in 2051 under the first projection to a high of 79 million in the third projection. Under all projections ethnic composition continues to change: the White British, White Irish and Black Caribbean groups experience the slowest growth and lose population share; the Other White and Mixed groups to experience relative increases in share; South Asian groups grow strongly as do the Chinese and Other Ethnic groups. The ethnic minority share of the population increases from 13% (2001) to 25% in the trend projection but to only 20% under our modified emigration projection. However, what is certain is that the UK can look forward to be becoming a more diverse nation by mid-century.     

我国人口态势与消费模式对碳排放的影响分析

本文应用STIRPAT扩展模型,考察近30年来我国人口规模、人口结构、居民消费及技术进步因素对碳排放的影响。研究发现,居民消费与人口结构变化对我国碳排放的影响已超过人口规模的单一影响力。居民消费水平提高与碳排放增长高度相关,居民消费模式变化正在成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;人口结构因素中,人口城镇化率的提高通过对化石能源消费、水泥制造及土地利用变化等的影响导致碳排放增长;人口年龄结构变化对生产的影响大于对消费的影响,其对碳排放影响的主要途径是生产领域劳动力的丰富供应;家庭户规模减小导致人均消费支出的增加及总户数消费规模的扩张,以家庭户为分析单位考察其对碳排放的影响具有较高的解释力。针对分析结果,探讨了未来我国低碳社会发展的相关应对之策。     

When nature rebels: international migration, climate change, and inequality

We study climate change and international migration in a two-country overlapping generations model with endogenous climate change. Our main findings are that climate change increases migration; small impacts of climate change have significant impacts on the number of migrants; a laxer immigration policy increases long-run migration, aggravates climate change, and increases north–south inequality if climate change impacts are not too small; and a greener technology reduces emissions, long-run migration, and inequality if the migrants’ impact to overall climate change is large. The preference over the policies depends on whether the policy maker targets inequality, wealth, the environment, or the number of migrants.     

Normative Life Satisfaction in Chinese Societies

Research over several decades about subjective life satisfaction has led to the conclusion that the majority of people seem to be satisfied with their lives when their social and physical needs are met. In empirical studies which have used self-report instruments, this trend is reflected in respondents’ consistent preference for the positive end of scales. This led to the suggestion that there is a normative range for life satisfaction, which should hold true for general population data and, therefore, serve as a reference point, or a gold standard, for comparison (Cummins Social Indicators Research, 35, 179–200, 1995, Social Indicators Research, 43, 307–334, 1998). Subsequent research has shown that Western and non-Western samples generally conform to the normative range, but more data are needed from Chinese societies. In an attempt to remedy this situation, this paper investigates normative life satisfaction there. This paper reanalyses published and unpublished data from various Chinese societies (People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and Taiwan) in order to confirm whether or not they lie within the normative range for non-Western countries. The results provide support for the relevance of Cummins’s normative range in Chinese societies. That the normative range generalised to the present study is a very useful finding, as it supports its utility for Chinese samples, and adds support to a theoretical explanation – i.e. the Wellbeing Homeostatisis theory—in Chinese groups.     

The geographic scale of Metropolitan racial segregation

This article addresses an aspect of racial residential segregation that has been largely ignored in prior work: the issue of geographic scale. In some metropolitan areas, racial groups are segregated over large regions, with predominately white regions, predominately black regions, and so on, whereas in other areas, the separation of racial groups occurs over much shorter distances. Here we develop an approach—featuring the segregation profile and the corresponding macro/micro segregation ratio—that offers a scale-sensitive alternative to standard methodological practice for describing segregation. Using this approach, we measure and describe the geographic scale of racial segregation in the 40 largest U.S. metropolitan areas in 2000. We find considerable heterogeneity in the geographic scale of segregation patterns across both metropolitan areas and racial groups, a heterogeneity that is not evident using conventional “aspatial” segregation measures. Moreover, because the geographic scale of segregation is only modestly correlated with the level of segregation in our sample, we argue that geographic scale represents a distinct dimension of residential segregation. We conclude with a brief discussion of the implications of our findings for investigating the patterns, causes, and consequences of residential segregation at different geographic scales.     

Gibrat’s law for countries

A reassessment of Gibrat’s Law in the context of country size is carried out in this paper. In addition, how similarly population is distributed in cities and countries is analyzed from a temporal perspective. Although evidence of Gibrat’s Law is found, it is weaker than that previously established in Rose (J Money Credit Bank 38(8):2225–2246, 2006). This is due to the methodology applied and is especially appreciable in very small countries. Nonetheless, we observe that the population growth process in countries is similar to that of cities. As a result, the similarities between how the population is distributed in these two geographical categories have increased over time.     

The role of demographics in precipitating economic downturns

There are significant effects of changing demographics on economic indicators: not only growth in GDP but also the current account balance and gross capital formation. The 15–24 age group is one of the key age groups in these effects, with increases in that age group exerting strong positive effects on GDP growth, and negative effects on the CAB and GCF. There have been major shifts in the share of the population aged 15–24 during the past half century or more, and 80% of these globally coincide with declines in GDP growth. This appears to have been the pattern in four financial crises since 1980 as well as Japan’s “lost decade.” The effect is even more pronounced for the 2008–2009 period.