Inertia in Russian Politics

Despite changes in values and in formal and symbolic structures, real reform of the Russian political system is hampered by institutional inertia.     

Horizon Length and Portfolio Risk

In this paper, we compare the attitude towards current risk of two expected-utility-maximizing investors who are identical except that the first investor will live longer than the second one. It is often suggested that the young investor should take more risks than the old investor. We consider as a benchmark the case of complete markets with a zero risk-free rate. We show that a necessary and sufficient condition to assure that younger is riskier is that the Arrow-Pratt index of absolute tolerance (T) be convex. If we allow for a positive risk-free rate, the necessary and sufficient condition is T convex, plus T(0) = 0. It extends the well-known result that rational investors can behave myopically if and only if the utility function exhibits constant relative risk aversion.     

消费中"弃我"惯性

消费,作为一种社会活动,必然包含了情境中的互动.在社会学意义上,消费不仅指人与物的互动,更加指向人与人的互动.表面上看,消费主体始终是人,但主客体的位置是否总是正确的?消费中的人的意识是否形成惯性,从而导致消费主体的异化?本文从人的消费惯性的角度,试着分析一些日常消费中人们习以为常,其实却是不正常的消费思维问题.     

Portfolio allocation and asset demand with mean-variance preferences

We analyze the comparative static effects of changes in the means, the standard deviations and the covariance of asset returns in a standard portfolio selection problem when investors have mean variance preferences. Simple and intuitive characterizations in terms of the elasticity of risk aversion are provided.     

On the Inefficiency of Bang-Bang and Stop-Loss Portfolio Strategies

We show in this article that bang-bang portfolio strategies where the investor is alternatively 100% in equity and 100% in cash are dynamically inefficient. Our proof of this result is based on a simple second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) argument. It implies that this is true for any decision criterion that satisfies SSD, not necessarily expected utility. We also examine the stop-loss strategy in which the investor is 100 percent in equity as long as the value of the portfolio exceeds a lower limit where the investor switches to 100 percent in cash. Again, we show that this strategy is inefficient under second-order risk aversion. However, a slight modification of it–in which all wealth exceeding a minimum reserve is invested in equity–is shown to be an efficient dynamic portfolio strategy. This strategy is optimal for investors with a nondifferentiable utility function.     

A Note on the Portfolio Selection Problem

In this note we provide new results of interest in the portfolio choice problem when the risky opportunities are correlated: for a general vector (X₁, X₂,..., X_n) of risky opportunities we give new conditions for stochastic comparison among different portfolios choices and new necessary and sufficient conditions to characterize the portfolio which gives the maximal expected utility.     

The Portfolio Choices of Hispanic Couples*

Objectives. The objective of this article is to assess the overall wealth level and portfolio choices of Hispanic families. Methods. We use Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data to first estimate the determinants of net worth. Conditioning on overall wealth levels, we then estimate a model of asset portfolios. Results. Our results reveal that Hispanic couples as a group are less wealthy than otherwise similar white couples, although there is substantial variation across Hispanic‐origin groups. Accounting for these wealth disparities, Hispanic couples hold less financial wealth, but more real estate and business equity than do white couples. Conclusions. Much of the disparity in portfolio choices of Hispanics as a group relative to whites appears to stem from the fact that they are less wealthy. At the same time, it is important to separately analyze the wealth position of distinct Hispanic‐origin groups.     

辽宁国有企业成长中的组织惰性及克服策略研究

辽宁省是我国国有经济发展最早、比重最大的省份,研究辽宁国有企业能力成长对我国国企改革战略具有重要意义。长期计划经济导致的组织惰性是制约辽宁国有企业能力成长的主要因素。组织惰性的产生源于路径依赖,而企业的路径依赖,从深层看是文化的自我强化。基于这一逻辑,创新组织文化、构建互动机制、建设学习型组织、管理建设性冲突以及跨越组织的边界是克服组织惰性、促进国有企业能力成长的基本策略。     

The Value of a Probability Forecast from Portfolio Theory

A probability forecast scored ex post using a probability scoring rule (e.g. Brier) is analogous to a risky financial security. With only superficial adaptation, the same economic logic by which securities are valued ex ante – in particular, portfolio theory and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) – applies to the valuation of probability forecasts. Each available forecast of a given event is valued relative to each other and to the “market” (all available forecasts). A forecast is seen to be more valuable the higher its expected score and the lower the covariance of its score with the market aggregate score. Forecasts that score highly in trials when others do poorly are appreciated more than those with equal success in “easy” trials where most forecasts score well. The CAPM defines economically rational (equilibrium) forecast prices at which forecasters can trade shares in each other’s ex post score – or associated monetary payoff – thereby balancing forecast risk against return and ultimately forming optimally hedged portfolios. Hedging this way offers risk averse forecasters an “honest” alternative to the ruse of reporting conservative probability assessments.     

技术创新项目组合优化投资决策研究

技术创新是现代经济增长的主要源泉,也是提高企业竞争力、促进企业持续发展的重要途径。技术创新项目组合优化的核心内容是进行项目组合选择,即通过对建立收益性因素和风险性因素评价指标体系,确定其评价基准,运用层次分析法计算出收益性因素的综合分数值和风险性因素的风险系数值,在此基础上建立以技术创新项目组合收益极大化为目标函数,组合后总的风险系数值控制在一定的风险水平下和投资有限为约束条件的0-1整数规划模型。     

Portfolio stock adjustment and the real exchange rate: The Dollar-Mark (DM) and Mark-Sterling

The advent of “freely floating” exchange rates in the 1970's coincided with the emergence of what is known as “monetary” or “asset” models of exchange rate behavior where exchange ratesmove to equilibrate demand for stocks of monies. The fundamental monetary model assumes purchasing power parity holds in the long-run, and therefore exchange rates are determined by the same factors that determine relative prices, to wit, money stocks, real incomes, and nominal interest rates. Though early proponents of the monetary view clearly emphasized its long-run nature, empirical testing has by and large neglected this caveat. Thus a model developed for long-run equilibrium exchange rates has instead been tested many times over on short-run equilibrium rates. The latter require a distinct model of their own. This paper develops a short-run equilibrium exchange rate model based on deviations of the short-run exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium. The model differs in that all variables are cast in real terms. It also differs in that the monetary and current account exchange rate versions are shown to be subsets of the more general wealth/portfolio framework used here. The present model considers, in addition to stocks of monies, stocks of foreign assets, and stocks of domestic wealth.     

The Effects of Judicial Strength and Rule of Law on Portfolio Investment in the Developing World*

Objective. Applying existing theories relating to investment risk, this article examines the effects of judicial strength and adherence to the rule of law on portfolio investment in the developing world. We aim to demonstrate that countries with higher levels of judicial strength and rule of law are more able to attract portfolio investment because they provide greater protection of property rights and a better risk environment for investors. Methods. Using time‐series data for 79 developing countries for the period 1996–2005, we employ panel‐corrected standard errors multivariate regressions to demonstrate that higher levels of judicial strength and rule of law are associated with higher levels of portfolio investment. Results. We find that a one standard deviation increase in overall judicial strength and rule of law results in more than a 50 percent increase in portfolio investment. In separate analyses, we show that a one standard deviation increase in specific measures of judicial independence, impartial courts, and protection of property rights leads to increases in portfolio investment ranging from 27 percent to 184 percent. Conclusion. Judicial strength and adherence to the rule of law are important determinants of portfolio investment in the developing world.     

The Role of Cultural Inertia in Reactions to Immigration on the U.S./Mexico Border

Assimilation and multiculturalism are often contrasted as opposite interethnic ideologies about cultural integration. Here, we address models of assimilation and multiculturalism and how group identity influences attitudes toward immigrants. One overlooked issue concerns the dynamic processes involved in integration. It is proposed that cultural inertia, defined as the desire to avoid cultural change, or conversely, to continue change once it is already occurring, can account for a number of seemingly discrepant findings. In particular, cultural inertia predicts that majority groups should prefer assimilation type models, whereas minority groups should prefer multicultural models. Resistance to change is the mediating process. Cultural inertia is used as a model to understand discrepant attitudes toward assimilation and multiculturalism across different groups.     

A Portfolio of the Identities of Young People of the South of Russia Under the Conditions of Civilizational Choice

The Russian identity in post-Soviet conditions is ambiguous, and a new identity is still not formed. Data from the southern regions show that religion and ethnicity are more powerful sources of identity than being a citizen of Russia.     

《周易》与儒释道

《周易》是我国传统文化的根干,儒家奉为群经之首,道家奉为道藏三玄之首。佛教传入中国,与儒道合而为一,并构成中国传统文化的基础。易家的太极、儒家的天命、道家的道、佛家的空,皆是宇宙全息图的不同体现方式,是宇宙万有生存准则的不同表述。     

高校思政课与创新创业教育的衔接路径研究

高校思政课与创新创业教育两者教育目标相一致,两者有效衔接可以有效增强教育效果.但是,目前高校思政课的教育机制与创新创业教育之间的衔接还存在一些问题.对此,高校可以应用ADDIE模型的理论及方法构建教学思路,根据确定教学目标→挖掘育人价值→编写课程指南→开展课程试点→教学效果评价来建立衔接路径,促进高校思政课与创新创业教育深入融合并协同发展.     

Long-term planning and decision-making among midlife and older gay men and lesbians

This article examines the issues of long-term planning and decision-making among midlife and older gay men and lesbian caregivers. Using a qualitative methodology, in-depth interviews were conducted with 19 gay men and lesbians over 50. Participants reported on their long-term planning and decision-making processes. All but four persons reported that their partners had advance directives, but the majority of caregivers did not have advance directives for themselves. Concerns about informal family dynamics and interactions with formal systems were expressed, along with financial and ownership issues. It is important for social workers to intervene across individual, organizational, and community levels in advocacy for the needs of older gay men and lesbian clients.