WHO QUITS NEXT? FIRM GROWTH IN GROWING ECONOMIES

We document novel facts about the relationship between aggregate growth and firm dynamics using a large set of countries. We argue that firm employment patterns are not necessarily informative about cross‐country differences in aggregate growth because they are induced by changes in the productivity of a firm relative to others. In contrast, aggregate growth is linked to average firm‐level productivity growth and firm age. We formalize this intuition through a tractable model of endogenous aggregate growth and firm dynamics where firms realize positive returns to investment with some probability. We find that cross‐country disparities in this probability can account for two‐thirds of the variation in aggregate growth. (JEL D21, D22, E23, O4)     

OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING DECISION AND CAPITAL INTENSITY: FIRM‐LEVEL RELATIONSHIPS

In offshore sourcing, a firm chooses outsourcing to independent suppliers or in‐sourcing from own foreign direct investment (FDI) subsidiaries. Based on the firm‐level data on offshore make‐or‐buy decision covering all manufacturing industries, this paper compares averages, documents inter‐firm distributions, and estimates multinomial logit models of the firm's sourcing mode choice. As predicted by previous theoretical models, this paper directly confirms at the firm level that outsourcing firms tend to be substantially labor‐intensive compared with firms in‐sourcing from the same region, even after the firm's R&D intensity, firm size, or industry is controlled for. (JEL F23, L23, L24, L14)     

MEASURING THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS' FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

Earlier work found evidence for geographic linkages of aggregate foreign direct investment across countries and country‐pairs. From a theoretical point of view, such linkages at the macroeconomic level may root in between‐firm as well as within‐firm linkages and originate from information spillovers across or within firms in exploring unknown markets, and vertical linkages between production plants across different locations within the firm. We use data on the universe of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) to empirically explore how marginal investments at one foreign affiliate depend on investments at other affiliates within the same MNE. The empirical approach employs two channels or modes of cross‐affiliate interdependence: mere geography (capturing horizontal linkages through correlated learning and horizontal competition within the firm) and input–output relationships within or across industries (which capture vertical linkages). Adding to earlier findings at the aggregate level, we find evidence of a significant interdependence of investments within the firm. In the firm‐level data at hand, vertical linkages appear to be more important than horizontal ones. Investments at one location tend to stimulate investments at other locations of the same MNE, particularly if input linkages are strong. The opposite seems to be true for output linkages. Beyond vertical linkages, mere geographic proximity matters only to a minor extent. This suggests that evidence of linkages through geographic closeness at aggregate data levels accrue mainly to reasons of vertical linkages within networks of affiliates. (JEL C31, D22, F21, F23, F68, G31, H32)     

A THEORY OF TURNOVER AND WAGE DYNAMICS

We develop a model of turnover and wage dynamics with insurance, match‐specific productivity, and long‐term contracting. The model predicts that wages are downward rigid within firms but can decrease when workers are fired. We apply the model to study the impact of business cycles on subsequent wages and job mobility. Workers hired during a boom have persistent higher future wages if staying with the same firm. However, these boom hires are more likely to be terminated and have shorter employment spells. (JEL C73, D23, D82, J33)     

FIRM SURVIVAL,UNCERTAINTY, AND FINANCIAL FRICTIONS: IS THERE A FINANCIAL UNCERTAINTY ACCELERATOR?

Using a large panel of unquoted UK firms over the period 2000–2009, we examine the impact of firm‐specific uncertainty on corporate failures. In this context we also distinguish between firms which are likely to be more or less dependent on bank finance as well as public and nonpublic companies. Our results document a significant effect of uncertainty on firm survival. This link is found to be more potent during the recent financial crisis compared with tranquil periods. We also uncover significant firm‐level heterogeneity because the survival chances of bank‐dependent and nonpublic firms are most affected by changes in uncertainty, especially during the recent global financial crisis. (JEL E44, F32, F34, G32)     

IMPACT OF CORRUPTION ON FIRM‐LEVEL EXPORT DECISIONS

This article examines the impact of corruption on the self‐selection of firms into domestic and export markets. A heterogeneous firm model predicts that corruption decreases the probability that a firm only sells domestically, increases the probability that a firm exports indirectly through an intermediary, and decreases the probability that a firm exports directly. The propositions of the model are tested using a comprehensive dataset of over 23,000 firms in 80 developing countries. The results confirm both the self‐selection of firms according to their productivity and the anticipated impact of corruption. This indicates that in developing countries where corruption is especially severe, intermediaries provide a crucial link to global markets. (JEL F1, O1)     

MINIMUM WAGES,IMPORT STATUS,AND FIRMS' INNOVATION: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

This study explores the heterogeneous effects of minimum wage on innovation of different types of firms. We develop an open‐economy R&D‐based growth model and obtain the following result: raising the minimum wage reduces innovation of firms that use domestic inputs but increases innovation of firms that import foreign inputs. We test this result using city‐level data on minimum wages and firm‐level patent data in China. In accordance with our theory, we find that raising the minimum wage is associated with more innovation by importing firms and less by non‐importing firms. This result survives a battery of robustness checks. (JEL E24, F43, O31)     

INFORMATION VALUE UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY AND ENDOGENOUS MARKET LEADERSHIP

In an oligopoly model with firms choosing to produce in one of two periods, we identify the circumstance under which a firm's having early information regarding stochastic demand results in market leadership. High demand volatility leads to Stackelberg competition with the information‐advantaged firm leading. In the N‐firm case an equilibrium with multiple leaders and multiple followers emerges endogenously. In a duopoly information acquisition game we identify conditions that determine whether neither, one, or both firms will pay to acquire early information and note that one firm's obtaining early information may generate a positive externality benefitting its competitor. Both symmetric and asymmetric outcomes are possible and Stackelberg market leadership may occur in equilibrium, but only when firms have different costs of information. Our finding that an information advantage may convey leadership which then affects the value of information to the players applies to other settings exhibiting first‐mover advantage such as certain public good provision games. (JEL C72, D82, L13)     

FUNDING FORMS,MARKET CONDITIONS,AND DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT R&D SUBSIDIES: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

We examine various factors that influence the effects of government‐subsidized research and development (R&D) programs on firm productivity. Based on a panel dataset of Chinese firms, we find the effects of the Innovation Fund for Small and Medium Technology Based Firms (Innofund) are dynamic over time and are heterogeneous depending on funding forms and the level of marketization and economic development across regions. In general, Innfound has significant and positive effects on firm productivity in both the short and long run. However, the short‐term effects of Innofund are stronger than the long‐term ones. Additionally, the positive effects of Innofund are stronger for firms backed by interest‐free bank loans than those supported by appropriation. Meanwhile, Innofund has stronger positive effects in provinces that are less market‐oriented or less developed economically. Finally, the short‐term effects of Innofund stay stronger than the long‐term ones even after we control the funding forms and the market conditions across regions. Identification and selection concerns are addressed through the propensity score matching approach and two‐stage estimation. (JEL G28 O38 H76)     

AN EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC INCENTIVES TO SHARE KNOWLEDGE

Knowledge‐sharing arrangements are an important part of the innovation process as they help firms acquire technological capabilities, shorten development time, and spread risk and cost. A question central to the study of knowledge‐sharing arrangements is the impact of competition on cooperation. While cooperation has the benefit of avoiding duplication, it may have an adverse effect on the competitive advantage of a leading firm. Hence, firms face a difficult challenge during the innovation process while deciding which components of it, if any, to carry out in collaboration with other firms. This paper reports the results of controlled laboratory experiments which identify how the decision to form research joint ventures changes with both relative progress during the R&D process and the intensity of product market competition. The design is based on a modified version of Erkal and Minehart “Optimal Sharing Strategies in Dynamic Games of Research and Development.” Research Paper 1038, University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, 2008. The results indicate that if expected profits are such that the lagging firms always stay in the race, cooperation unravels as firms move forward in the discovery process and as monopoly profits become more attractive. These results are generally consistent with the theoretical predictions. (JEL C91, L24, O30, D81)     

FIRM PRODUCTIVITY AND SALES DESTINATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM WITHIN CHINA

This paper builds on and extends the literature on the linkage between firm productivity and their export destinations to study the productivity of Chinese firms and their sales destinations in other provinces within China. Moving the study from international markets to domestic markets conveniently avoids the hard to control heterogeneity across different destination markets in international trade, as provincial markets within China are less heterogeneous than international markets but segmented by Chinese provincial borders. The paper explicitly controls the fact that many firms only sell in their home provinces by using the zero‐inflated negative binomial method. It finds that firms with higher productivity tend to sell in other provincial markets, and more productive firms enter more provincial markets. The results are robust. (JEL F15, D21, D24)     

THE RESPONSE OF FIRMS' LEVERAGE TO RISK: EVIDENCE FROM UK PUBLIC VERSUS NONPUBLIC MANUFACTURING FIRMS

This article empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic and firm‐specific risk on firms' leverage. The analysis is carried out for a large panel of public and nonpublic UK manufacturing firms over the period 1999–2008. Our investigation provides evidence that UK manufacturing firms use less short‐term debt during periods of high risk. However, the leverage of nonpublic manufacturing firms is more sensitive to firm‐specific risk in comparison to their public counterparts while macroeconomic risk affects both types of firms similarly. Our investigation also shows that firms with high liquid assets reduce their leverage more (less) during periods of heightened firm‐specific (macroeconomic) risk. (JEL C23, G32)     

INTERNATIONAL DEAL EXPERIENCE AND CROSS‐BORDER ACQUISITIONS

I show that corporate directors' human capital facilitates international investments. Directors' experience with cross‐border transactions positively influences firms' decisions to conduct their first cross‐border acquisitions. Cross‐border acquirers are more likely to buy firms headquartered in countries with which the directors have prior deal experience. This effect is strongest for target firms headquartered in culturally and institutionally dissimilar countries. Announced cross‐border acquisitions are received more favorably by financial markets and are more likely to be completed successfully when the announcing firm has a director with cross‐border acquisition experience. These effects are not driven by investment bank involvement in the deal process or by other forms of directors' human capital, and they are robust to endogeneity of director hires. (JEL F23, F21, J24, L23)     

Business strategy and the social norm of tipping

Tipping is an important economic phenomenon, involving about $47 billion a year in the US food industry alone, and trillions of dollars across different occupations and countries over the years. Moreover, tipping is a major source of income for millions of workers. This article discusses the implications of tipping for business strategy in the relevant industries. For example, firms can choose to impose a compulsory service charge in lieu of tipping - what are the advantages and disadvantages of doing so? How does tipping change the profit-maximizing level of investing in screening job applicants, training workers, monitoring them, and providing performance-based incentives by the firm? Can industries such as the music industry use tips (i.e., prices being voluntary and determined by the customers) as an alternative business model?     

DOES OFFSHORING PAY? FIRM‐LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN

This article explores the impact of offshoring on productivity using firm‐level data for the Japanese manufacturing industries during the period 1994–2000. We find that intrafirm offshoring, that is, sourcing of intermediate inputs to foreign affiliates within a particular multinational firm, has generally a positive effect on productivity of the offshoring firm, while arm’s‐length offshoring, that is, sourcing to unaffiliated foreign firms, does not have such an effect. In addition, the impact of arm’s‐length offshoring is negative for nonmultinationals and nonexporters but nonnegative for multinationals and exporters. These results suggest that the costs of searching foreign firms suitable for offshoring are nonnegligible. (JEL F14, L23)     

QUALITY DIFFERENCES,THIRD‐DEGREE PRICE DISCRIMINATION,AND WELFARE

We propose a model with two markets to analyze the welfare implications of price discrimination with quality differences. In each market a local firm that operates in that market only competes against a global firm that operates in both markets. Local firms produce higher‐quality goods than the global firm. If the quality levels of the local firms' products are the same, price discrimination is never welfare‐decreasing. If they differ, discrimination is welfare‐increasing if quantity increases. Because of a positive allocation effect of price discrimination, there are parameter values such that welfare increases while total output decreases with price discrimination. (JEL D43, D60)     

CONGLOMERATES AND REGULATION

Conglomerates operating integrated productions in different regulated and unregulated sectors may benefit of scope economies. However, the precise size of these synergies is often unknown to both rival firms and regulators. We show that the conglomerate's private information on scope economies may negatively affect both the regulated and the unregulated sectors depending on the precise nature of competition (strategic substitutes or complements). We also unveil a novel effect of regulation that involves an informational externality to the conglomerate's rivals. Notwithstanding these complications, and independently of the nature of competition, we show that in our model it is desirable, as for welfare, to let the firm run integrated productions, unless diseconomies of scope may realize. (JEL L51, L43, L52)     

MULTIREGIONAL FIRMS AND REGION SWITCHING IN THE U.S. MANUFACTURING SECTOR

I use data on U.S. manufacturing establishments to study the spatial reallocation of resources that takes place within surviving firms as they open and close establishments in different regions. To motivate the empirical analysis, I extend existing models of industry dynamics to include production‐location decisions within firms. Consistent with the theory, the empirical results show that only a fraction of firms make the same product in multiple regions, that multiregional firms are larger and more productive on average compared to single‐region firms, and that “region switching” is pervasive among multiregional firms and correlated with changes in firm and firm‐region characteristics. (JEL L2, F12, F23)     

LEAGUE‐LEVEL ATTENDANCE AND OUTCOME UNCERTAINTY IN U.S. PRO SPORTS LEAGUES

We extend the breakpoint literature regarding annual league‐level attendance and the impact of outcome uncertainty to the National Basketball Association, National Football League, and National Hockey League. As our measures are different than past work on baseball, we also apply our model to the American and National Leagues. Attendance series for each league under consideration are not stationary overall, but are stationary with break points. No form of outcome uncertainty (game, play‐off, or across seasons) matters for attendance in hockey or baseball regardless of which game uncertainty variable is used. Under the measure of game uncertainty that recommends itself for football, only play‐off uncertainty matters for attendance. Whether outcome uncertainty matters for basketball depends on the measure of game uncertainty. Situational similarities in the break points across leagues suggest general areas for future research. (JEL L83, C22)     

Innovation Policy Challenges in Transition Countries: Foreign Business R&D in the Czech Republic and Hungary

R&D expenditures of national firms decreased considerably and structural changes of R&D financing followed the fall of planned economy in the transition period of Central Eastern European economies. In the middle of the 1990s, business R&D started to grow in the Czech Republic and Hungary due to investments of foreign affiliates and restructuring of domestic companies. Nowadays multinational companies have a decisive share in business R&D in these countries, which entails special challenges for national innovation policy. In this paper, we look through the development of the Czech and Hungarian innovation policy considering MNEs R&D. We use case studies of the Czech automobile industry, the Hungarian pharmaceutical industry, and the new MNE-related university units and private universities to show how these companies influence innovation systems in transition economies.