POPULATION GROWTH AND INDUSTRIALIZATION

The role of population growth in the process of industrialization is studied in a general equilibrium model. It provides a formal presentation of Rostow's insight of the role of a leading sector in industrialization. Population growth may lead to a shortage of food and a breakdown of the industrialization process. However, population growth may benefit the manufacturing sector in the adoption of increasing returns to scale technologies. Elasticity of demand for agricultural goods plays an important role in determining whether an improvement of agricultural technology or an increase of population is beneficial to the manufacturing sector. A comparison of China and Britain before the Industrial Revolution shows that research and development are necessary for sustained growth. Achieving industrialization independently requires a combination of a sufficiently large market size from the demand side and a sufficiently large supply of technologies from the supply side . ( JEL O14, E10, N10, Q01)     

Talk changes things: The implications of McCloskey's Bourgeois Dignity for historical inquiry

In The Bourgeois Dignity, Deidre McCloskey asserts that although there were many reasons that have been posited for the rise of the bourgeois class and the tremendous increase in the world's standard of living that occurred during the Industrial Revolution, including the enlightenment and the Protestant ethic, something else was required. For her, that something else was a change in the esteem that was afforded to the bourgeois, to capitalists and to capitalism. The talk changed and a change in the talk was what ultimately changed things. In this article, we briefly explore and defend McCloskey's (2010) claim that a change in talk was at the root of the Industrial Revolution. Further, contrary to much of the literature on the relationship between discourse and social change which tends to focus on discourse as an artifact rather than a driver of change, we argue using examples from outside of economics and economic history that a change in talk not only tends to accompany but often precedes dramatic social transformation.     

Discovering rhetoric: The ecology of enterprise in the Bourgeois Era

Deirdre McCloskey's Bourgeois Dignity deploys Israel Kirzner's theory of entrepreneurial discovery in her explanation of the Industrial Revolution. This essay examines whether Kirzner's theory can bear the analytical load that McCloskey would place on it. I identify two potential incongruities between Kirzner's theory and McCloskey's historical account but find them both unconvincing. Kirzner's entrepreneur is a good fit for McCloskey's story. I argue further that the fit can be strengthened by incorporating further elements of Kirzner's theory, including entrepreneurial alertness.     

The demographic situation as a factor in emigration from the USSR

This is an analysis of recent trends in internal migration within and emigration from the former Soviet Union. The study focuses on domestic social tensions and interethnic conflicts affecting migration. The author concludes that continued growth of the rural population, particularly in Central Asia, combined with growing unemployment, declining living standards, and economic stagnation will mean that Russia will have to repatriate a considerable proportion of Russians from other republics. Consideration is also given to a predicted demand for immigration from the non-Russian population of Central Asia. This is a translation of a Russian article in "Migratsiia naseleniia", Moscow, Russia, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1992, pp. 6-31.     

Recombinant Family Formation Strategies1

Abstract In contrast to the 'modernization' model of demographic change, popularized by the publications of the European Fertility Project, this paper sets the revolution in family life in an historical perspective. First, I briefly consider the creation of a distinctly north-west European system of production and reproduction; second, I discuss how this regime led to the emergence of a revolutionary solution to the population/resources squeeze in early modern England; third, I consider how it came to be severely dis-equilibrated in the period of industrialization, urbanization and improvements in life-expectation which became generalized in the age of the Industrial Revolution; and, fourth, I propose that the re-equilibration that we celebrate within the rubric of the Demographic Transition can perhaps be more effectively understood as both an innovation and an adjustment which occurred in response to the historical ruptures - demographic and economic, cultural and political - engendered by the twin processes of material change and state formation.     

CULTURAL CONSTRAINTS ON INNOVATION‐BASED GROWTH

To what extent does the cultural composition of a society impose a constraint on its long‐run growth potential? We study this question in the context of an innovation‐based model of growth where cultural attitudes are endogenously transmitted from one generation to the next. Focusing on attitudes regarding patience, we analyze the two‐way interaction between economic growth and the intergenerational transmission of patience. Exploiting this interaction, we compare the long‐run growth performance of a culturally heterogeneous society where patience is initially underrepresented in the population with a culturally homogeneous society where all agents are perfectly patient. Our main result is that in the absence of any intrinsic preferences of patient parents to transmit their attitudes to their children, the development paths of the two societies are bound to diverge, with the culturally heterogeneous society experiencing lower growth rates. Yet, if patient parents ceteris paribus prefer their children to be patient like them, we show that the two societies can in the long run grow at the same rate.(JEL D91, E24, O30, O40, Z10)     

Howard Becker's summer workshop in visual sociology: A personal view

We social scientists fumble with the forms of social life—from mating pair to extended family; from friendship clique to community; from work team to corporation. We think of a group—say the Daughters of the American Revolution or the Mothers of Invention—and nothing much comes to mind, only a dull uncomprehending blankness. What IS a group exactly? We find even our most vital areas of social science hobbled for want of clear conceptions to fix understandings of key terms such as group, family, organization, and culture. This article reports my halting progress with the question of how to study human groups. My answer comes in images such as those of Plate 1. Here we have, first, children dancing arm in arm in a graveyard. Their joined circle is a living form—bounded in space and time, full of tension, rhythm, harmony, growth and possibility. Counter‐posed to the dancing children is the graveyard, which is likewise a form bound in space and time and animated by rhythms and growth. It is a remarkable fact that even in death, when there is no reason for it, we remain together with others, united in groups. Such images as these, I argue, are key to a scientific study of groups. In them we find the group.     

Class,State, and Revolution in the History of American Capitalism

The significance of the American Revolution has generally been downplayed in accounts of the rise of capitalism in the United States, especially those undertaken from a critical perspective. New approaches to the history of capitalism, however, have emphasised the centrality of the state. This article argues that re‐centring the state's role in the history of capitalism should return attention to the significant restructuring of the American state that occurred during and as a result of the revolution. At the same time, it argues that this restructuring cannot be understood historically outside the context of class‐formation of which it was a part. Revolution reshaped the new nation's capitalist class, in the near term, much more than it did the labouring classes. This reconfiguration encompassed and went beyond the innovation of new political institutions. In the long‐run it helped to underpin the particular development of capitalism in the United States.     

Brexit and the Economics of Political Change in Developed Countries

The economic forces underlying Brexit—and the election of Donald Trump in the US—are similar, but they are also well advanced in many European countries, where much of the population faces similar material insecurity and stagnation. These frustrations can easily be channelled by right-wing xenophobic forces. To combat this, the EU needs to undo some of its design flaws and particularly its adherence to fiscal austerity rules. Only a more progressive and more flexible union based on solidarity of peoples is likely to survive.     

JOBLESS RECOVERIES: STAGNATION OR STRUCTURAL CHANGE?

Within the existing literature a number of competing explanations for jobless recoveries have emerged. On the one hand there is evidence of dynamic structural change including offshoring/globalization and technological advances that are resulting in the loss of middle‐skill (routine) employment. Other studies emphasize a less dynamic economy with slower growth, reduced labor market fluidity, a decline in startup activity, and even economic stagnation. This study exploits variation among U.S. states to assess the degree that stagnation and/or important structural changes in the economy contribute to the recent phenomenon of jobless recoveries. We find support for both the stagnation and structural change theories of jobless recoveries. On the stagnation side, we find evidence that lower startup rates are a significant predictor of jobless recoveries. We also find evidence that links dynamic structural change to the jobless recovery phenomenon. More specifically states experiencing a long‐run downward trend in the share of routine employment are more likely to experience a jobless recovery. Our results are consistent with the polarization theory where routine‐replacing technological advances permanently reduce demand for middle‐skill labor, thus contributing to jobless recoveries. (JEL E32, E24)     

A comparative study of land tenure,property boundaries,and dispute resolution: case studies from Bolivia and Norway

This article explores issues related to land in both rural Bolivia and Norway. Our purpose is essentially comparative: by exploring land tenure patterns, property boundaries, and dispute resolution processes in two distinctly different social and economic contexts, we hope to shed light on common patterns in the ways people in rural areas interact with bounded environments. At the same time, we also will draw attention to important differences in these interactions. Norway has one of the highest standards of living in the world and is in many ways a model of economic and social efficiency; Bolivia, by contrast, is a country that is characterized by extreme ecological zones and is a nation that has struggled for most of its 170 years of independence to both maintain its population at the most basic of levels, and to achieve social stability. Yet despite these significant historical and contemporary differences, both countries share an important commonality: land in rural areas serves both practical and symbolic functions. Any study of the complex ways in which rural people relate to land in both countries that does not take both of these equally important functions into consideration will be critically incomplete.     

The impact of rapid population growth,expanding urbanisation,and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya

This article analyzes the impact of the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanization on social and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and compares policies that have been developed in Tanzania and Kenya in response to these factors. The principal consequences of overpopulation and overurbanization have been economic stagnation and physical and cultural malaise in urban population centers. Between 1960-80, per capita incomes in 19 countries of sub-Saharan Africa grew by less than 1%/year and 15 countries recorded a negative rate of growth in per capita income during the 1970s. Urban populations have increased at at overall rate of 6%/year as sub-Saharan Africans have migrated to cities in search of employment. Few national governments in the region have formulated longterm strategies to deal effectively with this double-faceted development constraint or have integrated new urban populations into the national economy. tanzania's development strategy is focused on the goals of socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. Urban development has remained a residual item in Tanzania's national development process, despite the fact that the urban population increased from 5.7% of the total population in 1967 to 12.7% in 1978 and is projected to comprise 24.7% by the year 2000. In contrast, Kenya, whose proportion of urban population increased from 9% to 15% between 1962 and 1979, has pursued an urban-focused development strategy. The strong urban-rural linkages of the economy have focused migration to the secondary towns. The national development plan includes urban spatial, employment, and investment policies. Although this plan constitutes a good basis for future planning, the magnitude of the urban problem is beyond the capabilities of the central government and requires the development of local capabilities.     

How capitalism and the bourgeois virtues transformed and humanized the family

McCloskey's two volumes argue that a change in our ideas about the dignity of human beings laid the groundwork for the tectonic changes in economic organization known as the advent of capitalism and the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution also changed human behavior by cultivating further the virtues that nourished it. This process can be seen in the way in which the capitalism transformed the family from the realm of “Prudence mostly” to “Love mostly.” Rather than undermining some romanticized vision of family life, capitalism is responsible for humanizing it by opening space for Love.     

Judging Textbooks

Connecting wider economic, technological, or cultural trends to the everyday life of students can be a challenge. Food can serve as a course-long theme that helps students comprehend the essential connection between personal actions and national or international trends and develop skills of critical analysis. The author describes four activities that can be adapted to a wide variety of social studies courses and age groups. In the first two activities, students gain an understanding of their diet by exploring their food choices and the factors that affect those choices. These activities provide a point of comparison for subsequent units in which students examine food choices in a pre-industrial age and the impact of the technological advances of the Industrial Revolution on food production, preservation, and preparation.     

Food Availability and Access in Lesser-Industrialized Societies: A Test and Interpretation of Neo-Malthusian and Technoecological Theories

Population pressure and human adaptation to food security demands through technology have been a dominant concern of researchers and policymakers alike in international development. This paper examines neo-Malthusian and technoecological determinants of food security in lesser-industrialized societies between 1970 and 1990 using an OLS regression of food security change. Findings reveal that population pressure and overurbanization concerns are indeed valid for food availability, having negative implications, while adaptive measures such as the application of fertilizer technologies, land-use intensification, infrastructural development, and the internationalization of food markets help balance these negative effects. Interestingly, such technological improvements operate net of increased food availability and economic growth. Thus, Green Revolution technologies and the internationalization of global food systems have confronted population pressure in the developing world. However, findings are less conclusive for food access, indicating that improvement in availability does not necessarily translate into meeting distribution needs, thus challenging the ability of these two theories to comprehensively explain the complexities of food security. Questions therefore remain with regard to future food security concerns.     

ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN THE HOUSEHOLD: PUZZLES AND PATTERNS FROM THE AMERICAN PAST

Estimates of household economies of scale are critical for measuring income and living standards, yet we know little about how these scale economies change over time. I use American household expenditure surveys to produce the first comparable historical estimates of household scale economies. I find that scale economies changed significantly from 1888 to 1935 for all expenditure categories considered (food, clothing, entertainment, and housing), but not all trends in scale economies are consistent with theoretical predictions. As such, our notions about household economies of scale must be reassessed in light of this historical evidence. (JEL D1, E3, I3, J1, N3)     

Grunig's Situational Theory: A Replication,Application, and Extension

Grunig's situational theory segments publics from a larger population based on the activeness or passiveness of communication behavior. This study found support for the Grunig model in a survey conducted during the 1990 governor's race in Kansas. The variables of the theory—problem recognition, level of involvement, and constraint recognition—accurately predicted different levels of communication activity about the election. The theory also predicted the outcomes of communication successfully. In contrast to previous studies using the situational theory, this study found a strong relationship between the situational variables and standard demographic characteristics of age, education, and income—thus suggesting the possibility of using segmentation procedures that include both situational variables and media demographics. Finally, the article suggests that the situational theory could be enhanced by including an energy variable—specifically Hull-Spence's behavior equation—and a media use variable.     

Returning Patients to the Community: disability, medicine and economic rationality before the Industrial Revolution

This paper offers an interpretation of physical impairment in eighteenth-century Britain which challenges the view that disability was largely a product of industrial capitalism. After reviewing the historical models of Finkelstein, Stone and Oliver, in which this position is put forward, attention turns to a case study of the General Infirmary at Bath, founded in 1739 to grant 'poor cripples and other indigent strangers' access to the spa waters. Dedicated to the prevailing moral economy of mercantilism, the Bath Infirmary sought to return its patients to the community in a state of physical and moral fitness. The economic implications of this objective are discussed in relation to the work imperative, the therapeutic performance of the institution and the age/sex characteristics of its clientele. The political implications are discussed in relation to the practice of medicine and the pursuit of an orderly society. It is concluded that medical charity points to incompatibilities between impairment and economic rationality in advance of the Industrial Revolution.     

Household size,income and expenditure on food: The case of Cyprus

This paper addresses some of the questions raised in a debate between Deaton and Paxson, 1998, Deaton and Paxson, 2003 and Gan and Vernon (2003) in the Journal of Political Economy. At issue is what, on the basis of theory, the behaviour of households should be in relation to expenditure on food, as household size increases. One argument is that expenditure on food, per capita, should increase as household size increases, but analysis of the data gives very different results. Questions arise as to whether food is a public or private good within households, how food compares to clothing and whether there can be substitution away from food, for example towards clothing.For the purposes of addressing these and related questions in the Cyprus context, a household budget survey was undertaken, in which 625 responses were obtained. The paper describes the survey and uses the results of the survey to run regressions to identify the variables that relate significantly to expenditure on food. What we add to the discussion is the analysis of the determinants of expenditure on food in Cyprus, and the categorisation of this expenditure into food at home, take-away food, food in pubs and cafes, and food in restaurants. Our results tend to support Gan and Vernon (2003); we find, for example, that clothing is more private than food.