THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF MILITARY SERVICE: EVIDENCE FROM THE VIETNAM DRAFT

There is a strong cross-sectional association between military service and adverse health. However, veterans differ very significantly in their observable characteristics from nonveterans, suggesting that some of the association between military service and adverse health may be due to omitted variables bias. To address this problem, we use draft eligibility as an instrument for military service. Despite a very strong first-stage relationship between draft eligibility and military service, the two-stage least squares estimates of the difference in health between veterans and nonveterans are statistically insignificant and too imprecise to preclude the differences in health found in the cross-sectional regressions. ( JEL H56, I12, I18)     

THE EFFECTS OF EDUCATION ON FERTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This study investigates the impact of women's education on fertility. For identification, we use the 1968 compulsory education law change in Taiwan, which generated a regression discontinuity design (RDD) setting. We use the whole population of women from the 1980 and 2010 Population Censuses. Results of our RDD estimation using the exact date of birth suggest that the law change was effective in boosting women's education, but it did not have any impact on fertility. This is in stark contrast to most previous studies using only the birth year as the running variable or using it to construct instruments, which find that women's education depresses fertility. This study demonstrates that using a discrete running variable in RDD may generate a false discontinuity for an otherwise continuous regression function. (JEL J13, C21, I2)     

THE EFFECT OF INCENTIVE‐INDUCED RETIREMENT ON SPOUSAL RETIREMENT RATES: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT

We identify, quantify, and explain the impact of incentive‐induced early retirement (ER) of husbands on their wives' probability to retire within 1 year, using administrative data from the Netherlands. Our identification strategy is based on a policy intervention by which targeted individuals working at the central government level became unexpectedly and temporarily eligible for very generous ER benefits. This retirement window of opportunity implied for interested workers that transitions from the current job into full retirement had to be effected swiftly and irreversibly. We find that induced ER of husbands increased their wives' probability to retire by 10 percentage points. This is a strong and robust local average treatment effect. Partly, the effect runs through wives at ages when they may have been eligible for ER programs themselves. (JEL C26, J26, J120, J140)     

THE EFFECTS OF EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION ON LABOR TURNOVER: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This paper investigates the effects of employment protection legislation on the rates of hiring, separation, worker flows, job reallocation, and churning flows for the case of Taiwan. Our empirical identification takes advantage of a reform created by Taiwan's enactment of Labor Standards Law, which has substantially increased the costs of firing, and the implementation of the law's enforcement measures. Moreover, our identification also exploits the fact that the stringency of the law's provisions and the intensity of the law's enforcement vary with establishment size. On the basis of the monthly data at the establishment level for the period 1983–1995, we find that Taiwan's Labor Standards Law and its enforcement measures have dampened labor turnover for medium‐sized and large establishments, while that of small establishments was not affected. (JEL J65, J63, J88)     

DISCOUNTING,COGNITION, AND FINANCIAL AWARENESS: NEW EVIDENCE FROM A CHANGE IN THE MILITARY RETIREMENT SYSTEM

The choice given military personnel between an immediate cash payment of $30,000 or a more generous retirement pension permits us to estimate individuals' personal discount rates (PDRs). The resulting PDRs, about 7% for enlisted personnel and 2%–4.3% for officers, are precise and are correlated with a variety of other financial behaviors. The PDR is negatively related to educational attainment and the Armed Forces Qualification Test, but cognition seems to operate through channels other than being better informed; better‐informed individuals were not always measured to be more patient. (JEL D91, D14)     

REPUTATION EFFECTS IN THE MARKET OF CERTIFIERS: EVIDENCE FROM THE AUDIT INDUSTRY

Certifiers verify unobserved product characteristics for buyers and thereby alleviate informational asymmetries and facilitate trade. When sellers pay for the certification, however, certifiers can be tempted to bias their opinion to favor sellers. Indeed, accounting scandals and inflated credit ratings suggest sellers may prefer to select dishonest certifiers. I test this proposition by estimating the effect of adverse quality signals on audit demand. Exploiting the natural experiment of Arthur Andersen's demise, I find that auditors with worse quality signals experience a fall in demand. This suggests that reputation effects are at work even in the presence of conflicts of interest. (JEL L15, L8, M4)     

EFFICIENCY EFFECTS OF EXCLUSIVE TERRITORIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE INDIANA BEER MARKET

The welfare effects of vertically imposed exclusive territories and the appropriate antitrust policy toward them have long been debated. This paper sheds light on the exclusive-territory controversy by examing the effects of Indiana's 1979 ban on the grant of exclusive territories to beer wholesalers. Using time-series data for 1948–1990 we find the ban reduced beer consumption in Indiana by 6 percent. Coupled with previous evidence that Indiana's ban reduced price, our results suggest that exclusive territories in the beer industry increase demand and enhance welfare by stimulating the provision of dealer services.     

THE IMPACT OF HIGH-TECH CAPITAL ON PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA

This article examines the relationship between high-tech capital use and productivity. Using Australian data, some evidence is found of a positive relationship between high-tech capital use and productivity in the market sector, but there is much less evidence of excess returns. These results are robust to the use of a variety of different measures of high-tech capital. At the industry level however, the relationship is significant and positive for only some industries. This suggests that the benefits of investment in high-tech capital are not spread evenly across the economy. (JEL O3 )     

WEIGHING THE MILITARY OPTION: THE EFFECTS OF WARTIME CONDITIONS ON INVESTMENTS IN HUMAN CAPITAL

Serving in the military is an important vehicle through which young Americans invest in their human capital. As such, changes in the desirability of military service may affect the attainment of enlistment requirements, such as a high school degree or equivalent. Using American Community Survey data, we find that exposure to home‐state combat fatalities during the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars decreased the probability of high school completion, and increased the probability of general equivalency diploma completion. Using military data, we confirm that exposure to home‐state fatalities selectively deterred some individuals from enlisting. The results suggest military service and educational investments are complements. (JEL I20, I26, J24)     

EFFECTS OF CARBON REDUCTION LABELS: EVIDENCE FROM SCANNER DATA

We investigate the effects of carbon reduction labels using a detailed scanner data set. Using a difference‐in‐differences estimation strategy, we find that having a carbon label has no impact on detergent prices or demand. We also investigate possible heterogeneous effects of carbon labels using the synthetic control method. We find no evidence to indicate that the prices for the counterfactual detergents without the label would have been any different from the prices of the carbon‐labeled detergents. We investigate the reasons for these results and conclude that the specific design of the carbon label is responsible for its lack of success. (JEL D12, D83, L15, Q54)     

THE EFFECT OF HOUSE PRICE ON FERTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG

This article extends a standard Beckerian model of fertility behavior to formulate the effect of house price (HP) on fertility. The simple model predicts a negative effect of HP on the number of children for a representative household not only through the income effect but also through the compensated substitution effect. The prediction is confirmed by a cointegration analysis applied to the annual data at the aggregate level covering the period from 1971 to 2005 in Hong Kong. It is found that a 1% increase in HP is significantly related to a 0.45% decrease in total fertility rates (TFRs), which is robust in sensitivity tests with an alternative model specification and alternative measures of TFRs. This implies that high HP inflation can account for about 65% of the fertility decrease in Hong Kong in the past four decades. (JEL J13, J11, C32)     

SEQUENTIAL JUDGMENT EFFECTS IN THE WORKPLACE: EVIDENCE FROM THE NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION

This study investigates the impact of past performance evaluations on future decisions involving judgment. I analyze the decisions of highly skilled and highly monitored referees regarding offensive fouls and violations in the National Basketball Association. After testing for equilibrium adjustments in player behavior, findings support a hypothesis of increased referee scrutiny on one team following a potentially questionable call on the opposing team. Results are inconclusive for subsequent changes in scrutiny toward the original violating team. The analysis provides a nonexperimental test of sequential bias on elite employees working under strict performance standards, and suggests a likely role for sequential judgment effects in other areas of economic activity. (JEL D03, L83, J44, M59)     

THE EFFECT OF LEGALIZING RETAIL MARIJUANA ON HOUSING VALUES: EVIDENCE FROM COLORADO

Does legalizing retail marijuana generate more benefits than costs? This paper provides a first step toward addressing that question by measuring the benefits and costs that are capitalized into housing values. We exploit the time‐series and cross‐sectional variations in the adoption of Colorado's municipality retail marijuana laws (RMLs) and examine the effect on housing values with a difference‐in‐differences strategy. Our estimates show that the legalization leads to an average 6% increase in housing values, indicating that the capitalized benefits outweigh the costs. In addition, we find suggestive evidence that this relatively large housing value appreciation is likely due to RMLs inducing strong housing demand while having no discernible effect on housing supply. Finally, we show that the effect of RMLs is heterogeneous across locations and property types. (JEL K20, R28)     

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION ON RETIREMENT PLANNING: EVIDENCE FROM A FIELD STUDY

Many households neglect the pivotal task of planning for retirement. Proposals to stimulate employees to save for retirement in the workplace include tax subsidies, which are costly, and using automatic defaults, which may not complement the heterogeneous preferences of savers. This randomized field study shows that an information‐based intervention increases reported retirement plan participation, emergency savings, and using a budget. Employees offered access to education increased actual retirement deferrals by $26 per month. These results suggest that retirement education programs may be an effective strategy to increase retirement planning and saving behavior. (JEL J26, D14, D91)     

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY: A CENTURY OF EVIDENCE

We study common features in the income velocity of money, income, and interest rates for Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Sweden and Norway using annual data from 1870. The recently developed and refined techniques of testing for cointegration are employed.
The evidence suggests there is a unique long-run relationship in velocity but not in income and interest rates. Moreover, we find that only a model which includes institutional change proxies is properly specified. We argue that the evidence is best interpreted in the context of common historical developments in the respective countries' financial systems.     

PEER EFFECTS IN A COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE PGA TOUR

This study uses putting on the PGA TOUR to examine peer effects in a competitive setting. The nature of play in golf, in which players complete tasks in a discrete order with a group of randomly assigned peers, provides a unique opportunity to observe these effects among individuals competing in a high‐stakes tournament. Players have the chance both to learn from their peers, as well as to be psychologically impacted by peer success or failure. We find that learning by observing peers has a positive impact on a player's performance, while peer outcomes are negatively correlated with a player's own performance. (JEL D03, D83, L83)     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR CONTRACTS: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL

The conventional Keynesian model suggests that frictions created by nominal wage contracts generate a positive relationship between inflation and output. On the other hand, the New Classical/Real Business Cycle theory claims that firms and workers base their employment behavior, and hence output, on the marginal product of labor ignoring the efficiencies of fixed nominal wage contracts. Using Brazilian data, where nominal wages were indexed by law, tests show that fixed nominal wage contracts insignificantly affected output. Thus, the data support the view that fixed nominal wages play an insignificant role in determining the evolution of output. ( JEL E31)     

EFFECTS OF THE PARENTAL COALITION ON ADOLESCENT EMANCIPATION FROM THE FAMILY

This study examined the relationship between late adolescents' perception of their parents' marital coalition and academic success as a college freshman. The hypothesis was tested that late adolescents from families with a primary cross-generational bond (e.g., mother-son) have more difficulty emancipating from the family than offspring from families in which mother and father are the primary dyadic alliance in the family. Academic success as a college freshman was utilized as one measure of the late adolescents' success in separating from the family. The subjects were 36 18–year-old freshman males placed on academic probation and 36 passing males matched on ethnicity and SAT scores. The principal results were that subjects reporting a primary marital alliance were more likely to succeed academically and were more internal on the Rotter I-E scale than subjects who reported a nonmarital alliance as primary. The findings provide support for the theory of structural family relations, and clarify familial processes that affect late adolescent emancipation from the family.     

THE IMPACT OF PERCEIVED BACKGROUND RISK ON BEHAVIORAL HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM HURRICANE KATRINA

I explore the hypothesis that Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 raised perceived background risks, which had spillover effects on behavioral health outcomes of mental health and substance use. I estimate the effect that Katrina had in the nondamaged storm surge region, in time intervals leading up to and after the hurricane, compared to areas impervious to hurricanes. I find causal evidence that Katrina increased poor mental health days by 18.8% for the first month after Katrina, and increased smoking among lifetime smokers until 2007. Effects were larger in counties with disproportionate risk to storm surge and for low‐educated individuals. (JEL D81, I12, Q54)