Consumer bankruptcy and default: The role of individual social capital

In this paper, we empirically assess the role of individual social capital on personal bankruptcy and default outcomes in the consumer credit market. After controlling for a borrower’s risk score, debt, income, wealth, and legal and economic environments, we find that default/bankruptcy risk rises and then falls over the lifecycle, while a borrower who owns a home or is married has a lower risk of default/bankruptcy. Moreover, a borrower who migrates 190 miles from his “state of birth” is 17% more likely to default and 15% more likely to file for bankruptcy, while a borrower who continues to live in his state of birth is 14% and 10% less likely to default and file for bankruptcy, respectively. A borrower who moves to a rural area is 9% and 7% less likely to default and declare bankruptcy, respectively. We also find that measures of social networks, norms, and cooperation and trust (i.e., aggregate social capital) are inversely related to consumer bankruptcy.     

RISING TOP INCOMES AND INCREASED BORROWING IN THE REST OF THE DISTRIBUTION

One potential consequence of rising top‐income concentration is borrowing by less‐affluent households attempting to maintain relative living standards. This paper evaluates the “keeping up with the Joneses” phenomenon, examining the responsiveness of payment‐to‐income ratios for different debt types across the income distribution to changes in income among affluent households. The analysis provides evidence for the responsiveness of debt to rising top incomes. Middle‐ and upper‐middle‐income households take on more housing‐related debt and have higher payments in places with higher top‐income levels. Among lower‐income households non‐mortgage borrowing and debt payments decline, consistent with restrictions in the supply of credit. (JEL D63, D14)     

ARM-BREAKING, CONSUMER CREDIT AND PERSONAL BANKRUPTCY

The consumer credit transaction is analyzed as a contract which provides insurance as well as present consumption for the borrower. Creditors' remedies such as "arm-breaking" are shown to facilitate provision of insurance (forgiveness of debts) when lenders cannot monitor outcomes. Alternatively, if outcomes are observable but lenders do not ex ante know the risk associated with each borrower, the market may generate an excessive amount of arm-breaking and agreements to forgo discharge following bankruptcy as low risk borrowers signal their characteristics, suggesting that government limitations on such provisions might be efficient. The secured credit transaction is shown to be a complex contract which attempts to provide efficient repayment, seller incentives for performance and mitigation following default, and insurance for the borrower. Garnishment and discharge of debts following bankruptcy are also considered.     

FISCAL RULES AND GOVERNMENT BORROWING COSTS: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

We find that the adoption of numerical fiscal rules reduces government borrowing costs in a sample of 101 advanced and developing countries for 1985–2010. We apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to address the self‐selection problem of policy adoption and find strong evidence that fiscal rules have large and significant treatment effects on lowering government borrowing costs in both international and domestic financial markets. The results are robust to changes in country sample and alternative estimation methodology, and are consistent with fiscal rules helping to build policy credibility by reducing the probability of default and the “risk premium” on government debt that compensates lenders for this possibility. (JEL E43, G12, H60)     

Financing low-income housing in South Africa: Borrower experiences and perceptions of banks

South Africa is facing a low-income housing crisis, with the current backlog estimated at over three million units. An obstacle in the provision of low-income housing is the difficulty encountered by commercial banks to extend loans in this market despite supporting initiatives by Government. A lack of knowledge on the borrowing behaviour, preferences and experiences of low-income households in accessing housing finance from the commercial banking sector in South Africa hampers an understanding of the reasons for these problems. This paper's contribution is to provide information on the experiences and perceptions of low-income borrowers in the housing market of South Africa, specifically in their dealings with commercial banks. Results from a survey of 653 households across five provinces of the country are provided. In the survey, a structured questionnaire was used to obtain information on the experiences and perceptions of low-income households about their access to credit and housing finance, their experience of banks, the successes in credit approval, their judgements on the suitability of banks’ home-loan products, as well as preferences with regard to prices and interest rates.     

Consumer Debt Repayment Behavior as a Precursor to Bankruptcy

The passage of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA) of 2005 culminated years of debate over the escalating number of bankruptcy filings and whether or not consumers were abusing the bankruptcy system. Our study focuses on the extent to which households seek bankruptcy protection without first attempting to restructure their debt or experiencing indicators of financial distress. Through multivariate regression analyses of longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we find a significant relationship between having prior financial problems and filing for bankruptcy. Our results also indicate that households that obtained consolidation loans were equally likely to file for bankruptcy as those that did not. We conclude that early interventions with financially distressed consumers may provide opportunities to reduce bankruptcy filings.

THE FRAGILE AMERICAN: Hardship and Financial Troubles in the 21st Century

Rising economic insecurity at the turn of the 21st century made Americans increasingly vulnerable to financial distress. Studies of bankruptcy records show that personal hardships like health problems, divorce, job loss, and income disruption are the major reasons Americans fall into financial ruin. This article uses nationally representative data from the Survey of Consumer Finances to study the relationship between hardship and a range of financial troubles including bankruptcy, default, and credit access. We differentiate this analysis by class, expecting that debt troubles fall especially hard on middle‐income families. Our results show that while the middle class is distinctly vulnerable, multiple financial troubles accompany hardship for all classes.     

COSTLY INTERMEDIATION AND CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING

This paper studies quantitatively how intermediation costs affect household consumption loans and welfare. Agents face uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks to labor productivity in a production economy with costly financial intermediation and a borrowing limit. Reducing intermediation costs has two effects: (1) For a given decrease in the interest rate on borrowing, agents' ability to smooth consumption over time improves. (2) The demand for loans increases, which increases the interest rate. The net welfare gain of reducing intermediation costs from 3.927% (U.S. level) to 1% is about 1.14% of equivalent consumption in the baseline economy for an endogenous interest rate and 1.90% for an exogenous interest rate. The gains are distributed unevenly: households at the bottom wealth decile improve welfare by 3.96% and 5.86% of equivalent consumption, while those at the top decile have welfare gains of 0.35% and 0.2%, respectively. Sufficiently high intermediation costs eliminate borrowing and hence the welfare gain of reducing costs is not substantial. The welfare analysis includes transitional dynamics between steady states. (JEL D91, E60, G38)     

Graying of U.S. Bankruptcy: Fallout from Life in a Risk Society

As neoliberal ideology and policies gained a foothold in the early 1980s, the social safety net for older Americans contracted. Responsibility for the risks associated with aging, namely retirement income and healthcare costs, was increasingly transferred from the state to the individual. Using data from the Consumer Bankruptcy Project, we report that since 1991, there has been more than a twofold increase in the rate at which older Americans (age 65 and over) file for consumer bankruptcy and an almost fivefold increase in the percentage of older persons in the U.S. bankruptcy system. This magnitude of growth is so large that the broader trend of an aging U.S. population can explain only a small portion of the effect. Respondents report that inadequate income and unmanageable healthcare costs are the chief reasons for their bankruptcies. Our findings suggest that neoliberal policies that offload healthcare costs and retirement savings onto older Americans may facilitate their bankruptcy filings.     

THE WELFARE EFFECT OF ACCESS TO CREDIT

I present a model in which credit and outside money can be used as means of payment in order to analyze how access to credit affects welfare when credit markets feature limited participation. Allowing more agents to use credit has an ambiguous effect on welfare because it may make consumption‐risk sharing more inefficient. I calibrate the model using U.S. data on credit‐card use and show that the increase in access to credit from 1990 to the near present has had a slightly negative impact on welfare. (JEL E51, E41)     

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

This article provides a quantitative assessment of the role of financial frictions in the choice of exchange rate regimes. I use a two‐country model with sticky prices to compare different exchange rate arrangements. I simulate the model without and with borrowing constraints on investment, under monetary policy and technology shocks. I find that the stabilization properties of floating exchange rate regimes in face of foreign shocks are enhanced relative to fixed exchange rate in presence of credit frictions. In presence of symmetric and correlated shock, fixed exchange rates regimes can perform better than floating. This analysis can have important policy implications for accession countries joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II system and with high degrees of credit frictions. (JEL E3, E42, E44, E52, F41)     

BANK COMPETITION AND CONSUMER SEARCH OVER CREDIT CARD INTEREST RATES

This article models bank competition facing consumers with different search incentives and finds that consumers with higher credit card balances have lower interest rates given their risk class due to their greater search effort. It also finds that a default history leads to higher interest rates. The equilibrium interest rate corresponding to risk type and motive (borrowing versus convenience/transactions) is derived theoretically, and the determinants of the interest rate are estimated using an original data set. Endogeneity of default is handled with a two-equation system.(JEL D14 , D12 , D11 )     

Correlates of Credit Card Adoption in Urban China

Analysis of data from the 2008 Survey of Chinese Consumer Finance and Investor Education indicated that 30.0?% of the sample households held at least one credit card. Significant factors associated with the probability that an urban Chinese individual would hold a credit card included income, age, education, occupation, and awareness of credit card risks, default consequences, the credit system, and that late payments increase interest.     

Do single mothers in the United States use the Earned Income Tax Credit to reduce unsecured debt?

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is a refundable credit for low-income workers mainly targeted at families with children. This study uses the Survey of Income and Program Participation’s topical modules on Assets and Liabilities to examine associations between the EITC expansions during the early 1990s and the unsecured debt of the households of single mothers. We use two difference-in-differences comparisons over the study period 1988–1999, first comparing single mothers to single childless women, and then comparing single mothers with two or more children to single mothers with exactly one child. In both cases we find that the EITC expansions are associated with a relative decline in the unsecured debt of affected households of single mothers. While not direct evidence of a causal relationship, this is suggestive evidence that single mothers may have used part of their EITC to limit the growth of their unsecured debt during this period.     

ANIMAL SPIRITS,HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS,AND THE AMPLIFICATION AND DURATION OF CRISES

We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where households lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select endogenously among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. Due to strong nonlinearities, a small fraction of pessimistic traders already has a large aggregate effect, leading to a crisis characterized by high interest rates for loans and low output. Our stylized model illustrates how animal spirits and heterogeneous expectations and, in particular, how coordination on pessimistic expectations amplifies crises and slows down recovery. (JEL E32, D83, D84)     

MONETARY POLICY AND ENDOWMENT RISK IN A LIMITED PARTICIPATION MODEL

A limited participation model is constructed to study the risk‐sharing role of monetary policy. A fraction of households exchange money for interest‐bearing government nominal bonds in the asset market and the government injects money through open market operations. In equilibrium, money is nonneutral and monetary policy redistributes consumption across households. Without idiosyncratic endowment risk, monetary policy becomes a perfect risk‐sharing tool, but with idiosyncratic endowment risk, it is not. The Friedman rule is not optimal in general. (JEL E4, E5)     

Casino gambling and bankruptcy in new United States casino jurisdictions

Using quarterly data on personal consumer bankruptcy for 1989:Q4 through 1998:Q1, this study examines the impact that the introduction of casino gambling has on per capita personal bankruptcy filings. Eight jurisdictions that have recently adopted gambling are compared with a set of matching control jurisdictions, communities without casinos that are economically and demographically similar to the eight communities. The results reveal that casino gambling is associated with an increase in personal bankruptcy in seven of the eight communities. In five of the seven the increase is statistically significant. However, an increase is not universal and in one community, Harrison County, Mississippi (Biloxi), bankruptcy per capita significantly decreased. It is speculated that this decrease is due to the features of both the community and the casino industry in Biloxi. Finally, the most significant changes in bankruptcy occur among Chapter 13, as opposed to Chapter 7, filings. This suggests that a growing portion of insolvents are creating repayment plans for their debts. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

TIMING IS MONEY: DOES LUMP‐SUM PAYMENT OF THE EARNED INCOME TAX CREDIT AFFECT SAVINGS AND DEBT?

Earned income tax credit (EITC) benefit income is paid out in a lump‐sum around tax time. We investigate whether savings and debt among EITC‐eligible families reflect the timing of payments. Using nationally representative, individual‐level data on self‐reported debt and savings outcomes, we search for differences in monthly behavior between EITC‐eligible and ‐ineligible households. We find evidence that credit card and unsecured debt holding among EITC‐eligible families reflects the timing of the EITC, with low debt levels at tax time relative to other months. Debt holding among ineligible families with children does not exhibit a similar pattern. We find limited evidence of intrayear patterns in savings behavior among EITC‐eligible families. (JEL D14, I38, H23)     

推出市政债券为新型城镇化建设融资

新型城镇化建设的融资需求已引起各方主体的高度重视,探索推出市政债券是其中一个重要举措。为此,当前应加快立法,加强法制建设,健全法律法规体系,完善相关法律制度;规范地方政府举债行为,强化对地方政府举债的市场约束,构建多元化的城镇化建设融资体系,建立可持续的城镇化建设融资机制;严格执行财经纪律,构建地方政府的财政信用,强化地方财政预算约束,提高地方财政预算执行的透明度;完善信用风险管理制度,加强信用风险管理,有效防范和控制市政债券的信用风险;制定市政债券投资的税收优惠政策,增强对投资者的吸引力,发展壮大投资者队伍。     

CONSUMER CREDIT,LIQUIDITY, AND THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY

That the lending channel is alive and well for consumer lending is at first glance a compelling notion given the growth in consumer credit. However, this paper demonstrates with disaggregated monthly consumer credit data that the consumer loan‐supply effect has diminished over time. Contrary to assumptions motivating the lending channel, after the mid‐1980s, households are not constrained in accessing nonrevolving or revolving bank loans in response to a monetary shock. The findings of this paper have important implications for research on the monetary transmission mechanism beyond the lending channel and for business cycle research in general. (JEL E44, E50, E60, C32)