SENTIMENT BIAS AND ASSET PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM SPORTS BETTING MARKETS AND SOCIAL MEDIA

Previous research using attendance‐based proxies for sentiment bias in sports betting markets confirmed the presence of investor sentiment in these markets. We use data from social media (Facebook “Likes”) to proxy for sentiment bias and analyze variation in bookmakers' prices investor sentiment. Based on betting data from seven professional sports leagues in Europe and North America, we find evidence that bookmakers increase prices for bets on teams with relatively more Facebook “Likes,” indicating the presence of price‐insensitive investors with sentiment bias. These price changes do not affect informational efficiency in this market. (JEL L81, G14)     

FORECASTING CRUDE OIL PRICE MOVEMENTS WITH OIL‐SENSITIVE STOCKS

This paper uses monthly data from 1984:M10 to 2012:M8 to show that oil‐sensitive stock price indices, particularly those in the energy sector, have strong power in predicting nominal and real crude oil prices at short horizons (1‐month‐ahead predictions), using both in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests. In particular, the forecasts based on oil‐sensitive stock price indices are able to outperform significantly the no‐change forecasts. For example, using the NYSE Arca (AMEX) oil index as a predictor, the 1‐month‐ahead forecasts for nominal crude oil prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 22% (for the West Texas Intermediate oil price) and 28% (for the Dubai oil price). Moreover, we find that the directional forecast based on the AMEX oil index is significantly better than a 50:50 coin toss. The novelty of this analysis is that it proposes a new and valuable predictor that both reflects timely market information and is readily available for forecasting the spot oil price.(JEL G17, Q43, Q47, C53)     

A Case Study on the Informational Efficiency of Markets: The Market for Horse Racing in Australia

This paper describes a study of the informational efficiency of the thoroughbred horse racing market in Australia. It is based on the theory of stock market efficiency which explains the process by which information becomes reflected in share prices. In this paper, the theory is applied to the thoroughbred horse racing market to determine the predictive accuracy of alternative informative sources. The results obtained from the study are consistent with the underlying theory:(i) aggregated information (as reflected in a consensus of opinions) is a more accurate prediction of success than less information (as reflected in individual opinions), and;(ii) the most recent information (as reflected in race-time betting odds, known as starting prices) has greater predictive ability than less recent information (as reflected in an earlier consensus of opinions).The study examines predictive accuracy in a gambling context, but does not consider the profitability of alternative prediction processes.     

Controlling the illusion of control: a grounded theory of sports betting advertising in the UK

Sports betting advertising has arguably permeated contemporary sport consumption in many countries. Advertisements build narratives that represent situations and characters that normalize betting behaviour and raise public concerns regarding their detrimental effect on vulnerable groups. Adopting a grounded theory approach, the present study examined a British sample of sports betting advertisements (N = 102) from 2014 to 2016. The analysis revealed that individual themes aligned in a single core narrative, constructing a dual persuasive strategy of sports betting advertising: (i) to reduce the perceived risk involved in betting (with themes such as betting with friends, free money offers, humour, or the use of celebrities) while (ii) enhancing the perceived control of bettors (including themes of masculinity and sport knowledge). In addition, new technological features of sports betting platforms (e.g. live in-play betting) were used by advertisers to build narratives in which the ability to predict a sports outcome was overlapped by the ability of bettors to use such platforms, equalizing the ease of betting with the ease of winning. Based on the data analysed, it was concluded that the construction of a magnified idea of control in sports betting advertising is a cause for concern that requires close regulatory scrutiny.     

The Dark Side of Authenticity: Feeling “Real” While Gambling Interacts with Enhancement Motives to Predict Problematic Gambling Behavior

Engaging in activities that make people feel authentic or real is typically associated with a host of positive psychological and physiological outcomes (i.e., being authentic serves to increase well-being). In the current study, we tested the idea that authenticity might have a dark side among people engaged in an addictive or risky behavior (gambling). To test this possibility, we assessed gamblers (N = 61) who were betting on the National Hockey League playoff games at a sports bar. As predicted, people who felt authentic when gambling reported behavior associated with problem gambling (high frequency of betting) as well as problematic play (a big monetary loss and a big monetary win). Moreover, such behavior and gambling outcomes were particularly high among people who were motivated to gamble for the purpose of enhancement. The interaction of feeling authentic when betting and gambling for purposes of enhancing positive emotions proved especially troublesome for problematic forms of play. Implications of authenticity as a potential vulnerability factor for sports betting and other types of gambling are discussed.     

Betting is Loving and Bettors are Predators: A Conceptual Metaphor Approach to Online Sports Betting Advertising

The legalisation of online gambling in multiple territories has caused a growth in the exposure of consumers to online sports betting (OSB) advertising. While some efforts have been made to understand the visible structure of betting promotional messages, little is known about the latent components of OSB advertisements. The present study sought to address this issue by examining the metaphorical conceptualisation of OSB advertising. A sample of Spanish and British television OSB advertisements from 2014 to 2016 was analysed (N = 133). Following Lakoff and Johnson’s conceptual metaphor theory, four main structural metaphors that shaped how OSB advertising can be understood were identified: betting as (1) an act of love, (2) a market, (3) a sport, and (4) a natural environment. In general, these metaphors, which were found widely across 29 different betting brands, facilitated the perception of bettors as active players, with an executive role in the sport events bet upon, and greater control over bet outcomes.     

The Social Contagion of Gambling: How Venue Size Contributes to Player Losses

The Social Facilitation Effect shows performance on many simple tasks is enhanced by crowds of onlookers or co-actors (others performing the same activity). Previous experimental research has shown that Electronic Gaming Machine (EGM) betting behavior is intensified by the belief that others are gambling along with the subject (Rockloff and Dyer, J Gambl Stud 23(1):1–12, 2007). The present study extends these findings by simulating crowds of differing sizes using a fake video-conference along with a live confederate who gambles concurrently with the subjects. Fifty-four male and 81 female subjects aged 18–82 (M = 46.9, SD = 16.7) played a laptop simulated 3-reel EGM using a $20 stake in 3 conditions: (1) alone, (2) in a simulated group of 5 persons plus 1 live confederate, or (3) in a simulated group of 25 persons plus 1 live confederate. The EGM outcomes were rigged with a fixed 20 trial winning sequence followed by an indefinite losing sequence. As hypothesised, gambling intensity, as measured by trials played, speed of betting and final payouts, was progressively greater with larger crowd sizes (P < .05). In contrast, bet-size was slightly lower with larger crowds. The results suggest that gambling venues with more players tend to increase gambling persistence and contribute to greater long term monetary losses.     

Implications of Sex Guilt: A Meta-Analysis

A meta-analysis of the literature examining the outcomes related to feelings of sex guilt was conducted. The analysis demonstrates gendered differences in the experience of sex guilt and myriad attitudinal and behavioral impacts. Specifically, men report lower levels of sex guilt, r?=??.227 than do women and implications of sex guilt experience are vast, including its association with engagement in less sexual activity, r?=??.337, less favorable attitudes toward sex and lessened use of contraceptives, r?=??.276, reduced reports of sexual arousal in response to an explicitly sexual media content, r?=??.308, less positive emotional response to sexually explicit media content, r?=??.367, reduced level of sexual information accuracy, r?=??.324, and less positive attitudes toward sexual behavior, r?=??404. Sex guilt is positively related to level of religiosity/religious behavior, r?=?.439. The findings suggest that sex guilt provides a consistent set of responses to sexual information and media content as well as a motivational basis for behavior. These outcomes are further explicated and discussed.     

Career Outcomes Data From Social Media: Examining Quality in Current Practices

Social media websites contain information that can be used to assess career outcomes. Yet, questions remain about the quality of this data source. This study examined social media data collected from a large sample of recent college graduates (N = 3,094), considering how well those data represented the broader population of graduates and to what extent social media data matched survey responses on 5 employment variables. Results indicated that indiscriminately using social media data can lead to biased inferences about career outcomes. Specifically, social media data matched survey data in just 67% to 76% of comparisons. Despite these limitations, findings also revealed strategies to improve agreement between data sources, leading to more trustworthy inferences about career outcomes from social media. Results indicate a need to heighten practitioner awareness of data quality issues related to career outcomes data sources. A framework for examining data quality is offered, with suggested directions for future research.     

The relationship between social media use and sleep quality among undergraduate students

Insufficient sleep is a growing health problem among university students, especially for freshmen during their first quarter/semester of college. Little research has studied how social media technologies impact sleep quality among college students. This study aims to determine the relationship between social media use and sleep quality among freshman undergraduates during their first quarter in college. Specifically, we explored whether variations in Twitter use across the time of day and day of the week would be associated with self-reported sleep quality. We conducted a study of freshman Twitter-using students (N?=?197) over their first quarter of college, between October and December of 2015. We collected students’ tweets, labeled the content of the tweets according to different emotional states, and gave theme weekly surveys on sleep quality. Tweeting more frequently on weekday late nights was associated with lower sleep quality (β?=??0.937, SE?=?0.352); tweeting more frequently on weekday evenings was associated with better quality sleep (β?=?0.189, SE?=?0.097). Tweets during the weekday that were labeled related to the emotion of fear were associated with lower sleep quality (β?=??0.302, SE?=?0.131). Results suggest that social media use is associated with sleep quality among students. Results provided can be used to inform future interventions to improve sleep quality among college students.     

A LABORATORY STUDY OF AUCTIONS WITH A BUY PRICE

We present a series of laboratory experiments that examine auctions with buy prices, which are prices that allow a bidder to stop the auction and buy the item immediately. Two types of buy prices are considered, one that is available throughout the auction and one that disappears with an initial bid. Both are evaluated with and without proxy bidding. We find that the use of a buy price increases revenue, early bidding, and auction efficiency. Differences between outcomes in auctions with permanent and temporary buy prices are consistent with the observed choices in auction design made by online auction sites. (JEL C90, D44, C70, L81)     

‘A place for men to come and do their thing’: constructing masculinities in betting shops in London

During fieldwork conducted with workers and customers in betting shops in London research participants consistently conceptualized betting shops as masculine spaces in contrast to the femininity of other places including home and the bingo hall. According to this argument, betting on horses and dogs was ‘men's business’ and betting shops were ‘men's worlds’. Two explanations were offered to account for this situation. The first suggested that betting was traditionally a pastime enjoyed by men rather than women. The second was that betting is intrinsically more appealing to men because it is based on calculation and measurement, and women prefer more intuitive, simpler challenges. I use interviews with older people to describe how the legalisation of betting in cash in 1961 changed the geography of betting. I then draw upon interviews with regular customers in order to show how knowledge about betting is shared within rather than between genders. Finally, I use my experience of training and working as a cashier to describe how the particular hegemonic masculinity found in betting shops in London is maintained through myriad everyday practices which reward certain kinds of gendered performances while at the same time suppressing alternatives. The article shows how particular spaces may become gendered as an unanticipated consequence of legislation and how contingent gendered associations are both naturalized and, at the same time, subjected to intense attention.     

Does compassion go viral? Social media,caring, and the Fort McMurray wildfire

ABSTRACT

In May 2016, an enormous wildfire threatened the city of Fort McMurray, Alberta and forced the evacuation of all of the city’s residents. Outpourings of support teemed in from all across Canada and over the world, prompting the largest charitable response in Canadian Red Cross history. This paper examines Albertans’ response to the wildfire by exploring caring and helping behaviors as well as the role of social media in facilitating these remarkable charitable efforts. The paper uses mixed methods including an analysis of the most popular Tweets related to the wildfire and an Alberta survey collected months after the disaster. The analysis of tweets reveals that care, concern, and invitations to help were prominent in social media discourse about the wildfire. The analysis of survey data demonstrates that those who followed news about the wildfire on social media express higher overall levels of care and concern for those affected, which led to helping those impacted by the wildfire. The findings provide important insights about the role of social media in disaster relief and recovery as well as citizens’ civic engagement.     

IMPACT OF COMPETITION,INVESTMENT, AND REGULATION ON PRICES OF MOBILE SERVICES: EVIDENCE FROM FRANCE

In this paper, we assess the impact of competition, investment, and regulation on prices of mobile services in France. We estimate hedonic price regressions using data on tariff plans offered by the main mobile telecommunications operator in France between May 2011 and December 2014. In this time period, the obtained quality‐adjusted price index decreased by about 42.8% as compared to a decline in weighted average prices without quality‐adjustment of 8.7%. In a second step, we relate the quality‐adjusted prices to a set of competition, investment, and regulation variables and find that the launch of 4G networks by mobile operators was the main driver of price reductions for classic tariffs with commitment. Low‐cost tariffs without commitment which were introduced to pre‐empt the entry of low‐cost competitor declined at the time of entry. Moreover, we find that regulation, which is approximated by the level of mobile termination charges and international roaming price caps for voice and data, has a joint significant impact on quality‐adjusted prices. In percentage terms, competition is responsible for about 23.4% of total price decline and investments in 4G for 56.1%. We conclude that the reduction in quality‐adjusted prices in the last years was largely caused by competition between operators for a new 4G technology and by entry of a fourth low‐cost operator. (JEL L13, L50, L96)     

CASH INFLOWS AND BUBBLES IN ASSET MARKETS WITH CONSTANT FUNDAMENTAL VALUES

Previous experimental research on asset markets has reported that the level of cash available to traders does not affect asset prices when fundamentals follow a time trajectory that is constant over time. This contrasts with other research indicating that greater cash levels increase prices when fundamental values are decreasing over time. We report a new experiment in which we show that greater initial cash levels are indeed associated with higher prices when fundamental values are constant over time. Thus, high cash levels will lead to bubbles, if the cash is introduced before the market opens. Our results reconcile the two previous sets of findings. (JEL C90, D03, G02, G12)     

Rise of the Machines: A Critical Review on the Behavioural Effects of Automating Traditional Gambling Games

Automated gambling products are now a common feature on many casino floors. Despite their increasing prevalence, little research has considered the impact of converting games traditionally free from technological enhancements to automated versions. This review seeks to illustrate how automation is likely to change the way people engage and experience traditional games based around five prominent modifications: visual and auditory enhancements; illusions of control; cognitive complexity; expedited play; and social customisation. Otherwise known as the “VICES” framework. The inclusion of rich graphics, event-dependent sound and game-play information such as statistics, history, betting options and strategic betting are likely to prolong and entice gambling while encouraging more intense betting. Changes to the social environment due to the asocial nature of automated products is also likely to significantly change the gambling experience. Given the increasing prevalence of these products in the marketplace, it is important to consider the implications of converting traditional products to automated form as technological enhancements have the potential to allow for faster, more intense betting. More research is needed to determine the full impact of automation on player behaviours in order to understand the potential risks associated with technological enhancements to traditional games.     

MARKET ENFORCED INFORMATION ASYMMETRY: A STUDY OF CLAIMING RACES

This is a study of complementary markets. The race track polices the betting market with information revealed in a 'claiming horse' market. This policing reduces the adverse consequences of asymmetric information: experts in identifying horses and fraud are deterred from biasing betting odds against bettors at large. Consequently, bettors specialize in evaluating published race information. This 'monitoring' theory is compared to a competing theory of claim races as a self-assessed horse market. Parametric data is used to evaluate each theory. Institutional details also provide a test of each theory.     

REPUTATION,PRICE, AND DEATH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ART PRICE FORMATION

We analyze how an artist's death influences the market prices of her works of art. Death has two opposing effects on art prices. By irrevocably restricting the artist's oeuvre, prices, ceteris paribus, increase when the artist dies. On the other hand, an untimely death may well frustrate the collectors' hopes of owning artwork that will, as the artist's career progresses, become generally known and appreciated. By frustrating expected future name recognition, death impacts negatively on art prices. In conjunction, these two channels of influence give rise to a hump‐shaped relationship between age at death and death‐induced price changes. Using transactions from fine art auctions, we show that the empirically identified death effects indeed conform to our theoretical predictions. We derive our results from hedonic art price regressions, making use of a dataset which exceeds the sample size of traditional studies in cultural economics by an order of magnitude. (JEL Z11, J24, G12)     

Demographic,Behavioural and Normative Risk Factors for Gambling Problems Amongst Sports Bettors

Sports betting is growing exponentially, is heavily marketed and successfully targets young adult males. Associated gambling problems are increasing. Therefore, understanding risk factors for problem gambling amongst sports bettors is an increasingly important area of research to inform the appropriate design and targeting of public health and treatment interventions. This study aimed to identify demographic, behavioural and normative risk factors for gambling problems amongst sports bettors. An online survey of 639 Australian sports bettors using online, telephone and retail betting channels was conducted. Results indicated that vulnerable sports bettors for higher risk gambling are those who are young, male, single, educated, and employed full-time or a full-time student. Risk of problem gambling was also found to increase with greater frequency and expenditure on sports betting, greater diversity of gambling involvement, and with more impulsive responses to betting opportunities, including in-play live action betting. Normative influences from media advertising and from significant others were also associated with greater problem gambling risk. The results of this study can inform a suite of intervention, protection and treatment initiatives targeted especially at young male adults and adolescents that can help to limit the harm from this gambling form.     

How social comparison influences reference price formation in a service context

What is the influence on reference price when the source of price information is anonymous versus social? This article investigates the formation of reference prices given an observed sequence of past prices in a service context. An experimental study suggests that, considering the same price information, if the source is social (i.e., the prices paid by colleagues), then consumers want to pay less. More specifically, social comparison changes the way individuals weigh information, attributing more importance to the lowest historical prices and to the range in price variations.