INTERNATIONAL R&D SPILLOVERS AND OECD ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper quantifies the cross-national spillover effects of government and private investment in research and development (ROD), using a panel data set of ten OECD countries. The results show that domestic private research is a significant determinant of both domestic and foreign productivity growth, and that foreign government research stimulates domestic private research. These findings are significant in that they provide empirical support for arguments in favor of international economic policy coordination, particularly in the area of international science and technology.     

ANALYZING INDUSTRY‐LEVEL VULNERABILITY BY PREDICTING FINANCIAL BANKRUPTCY

This study introduces a novel framework for building company bankruptcy models and a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of industrial economic activities. We consider the identification of bankruptcy as a classification problem and assume that bankruptcy criteria differ across industries. We build highly accurate industry bankruptcy models by constructing separate models for each industry. We also propose a method of analyzing the vulnerability of industrial economic activities in various countries and industries using new indicators we call “expected potential loss,” which we obtain using the predicted likelihood of bankruptcy and company information. (JEL G0, C0)     

WORK‐RELATED ACCIDENTS AND THE LEVEL OF MARKET COMPETITION: AN ANALYSIS OF WORKER INJURY RATES AT U.S. STEEL CORPORATION, 1907–1939

We investigate the relationship between accident rates and industry structure for the United States’ steel industry during the first four decades of the 20th century. We develop a dominant firm theoretical model linking accident rates to number of competitors, showing a positive correlation between accident avoidance and the number of fringe competitors. We then test this theory empirically and, when controlling for other influences, find that reductions in the dominant firm’s market share reduce worker injury rates substantially. (JEL L13, L61, N62, N82)     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEBT LEVEL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES

In this article we unify the traditional approaches to testing for fiscal sustainability considering the stock‐flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach encompasses previous ways of testing for sustainability. The results obtained for a group of 17 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries point to weak fiscal sustainability, as well as to the existence of cointegration between deficit and debt, confirming the relevance of the stock‐flow approach. Allowing for structural breaks and multicointegration turns out to be of critical importance to assess whether the fiscal authorities apply their policies looking for sustainability and whether, simultaneously, they try to stabilize real debt target levels. (JEL H62, E62, C22)     

DETERMINANTS OF TRADE AND SPECIALIZATION IN THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO‐OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES

This paper empirically investigates the relative importance of productivity, factor endowments, trade costs, and tastes in determining the current pattern of trade and specialization. The results show that productivity and taste differences are the first and second most significant determinants of trade and specialization. Factor endowments are the least influential for the average country in the data set, but their effects are much greater in the poorer than richer countries. The results also show the substantial role of trade costs, which is amplified through interactions with other determinants of trade. Trade costs affect the relative costs of intermediate inputs and final goods, link preferences with specialization, and reduce the geographical range of comparative advantages. (JEL F1, F10)     

GOVERNMENT DEBT AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY: AN EXTREME BOUND ANALYSIS

The article provides evidence that there is a relationship between government debt and interest rates via the demand for money. This relationship is examined through the wealth effect of government debt on money demand, and the robustness of the results is tested by the use of extreme bound analysis in addition to standard econometric techniques. We find that OLS regression shows government debt fnfecting the demand for money positively, implying that Federal government debt is net wealth. In addition, the extreme bound analysis shows that the estimates of the government debt coefficient are robust under alternative specifications of the Goldfeld model.     

MONEY,OUTPUT, AND INFLATION IN THE LONGER TERM: MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, 1880–2001

We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real output growth and inflation. Using band‐pass filters, we extract cycles from each time series that last 2–8 (business cycles) and 8–40 (longer‐term cycles) years. We employ annual data, 1880–2001 without gaps, for 11 industrial countries. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic role at business cycle frequencies. However, money growth leads or affects contemporaneously inflation, but not real output growth, in the longer run. Also, formal break tests indicate no structural changes for the longer‐term money growth and inflation relationship, despite changes in policy regimes.(JEL E3)     

INFLATION AND ELECTIONS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FOR SIX OECD ECONOMIES

This paper examines the relation between post-election inflation and the incumbent's re-election chances using data for 50 elections in six OECD economies. Ijnd that post-election inflation is above average if the election race is close but not if the incumbent's election prospects are very good or very poor. The theoretical part of the paper shows that this result is consistent with rational political business cycle models. ( JEL E31)     

WORKER ATTITUDES AND THE COST OF PRODUCTION: HYPOTHESIS TESTS IN AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

This paper extends the application of neoclassical production theory to include the effects of worker attitudes on productivity and cost of production, using data for the U.S. automobile industry. Behavioral indicators of worker attitudes are imbedded in a standard four-input translog cost function. The coefficients of the imbedded function are determined in estimation of the cost function simultaneously with its share equations. Hypotheses concerning the effects of worker attitudes on the cost function are tested, and the properties of the index of worker attitude that emerge from the estimation are examined.     

ELECTRIC AND PLUG‐IN HYBRID VEHICLE DEMAND: LESSONS FOR AN EMERGING MARKET

Understanding demand in the new plug‐in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market is critical to designing more effective adoption policies. We use stated preference data from an innovative choice experiment to estimate demand for PHEVs relative to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and to explore heterogeneity in demand for these vehicles. We find the gap between willingness to pay for PHEVs and their price premium over conventional vehicles is on the order of current subsidies, while that of BEVs is an order of magnitude larger. We use a latent class model to show PHEVs draw a different consumer segment into the market. (JEL Q5, R41)     

SMALL‐ AND MEDIUM‐SIZED ENTERPRISE FINANCING AND SECURITIZATION: FIRM‐LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM THE EURO AREA

This paper analyzes the impact of securitization on access to finance for small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in the euro area. Using firm‐level survey data on SME financing conditions, we show that an increase in securitization issuance reduces the probability of SMEs facing credit constraints and decreases the costs of bank financing for nonconstrained firms. Our results reveal that in addition to the volume of securitization, its type and quality matter for credit extension to SMEs. The paper thus provides empirical support for recent initiatives to revive securitization in Europe and for effective monetary policy transmission in the euro area. (JEL D22, E44, E51, E58, G21)     

WOMEN AND CRIME: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

This paper analyzes the determinants of female participation in criminal activities through the use of an economic model of crime. The model is tested empirically on 1970 state data on female arrests and the results are generally consistent with the theoretical predictions. The major findings are that the probability of arrest and the probability of conviction have significant deterrent effects on female property crime, the labor force participation rate of married women has no effect and the average number of preschool children in husband-wife families has a negative and significant effect. The decrease in the average number of preschool children per husband-wife family that took place between 1960 and 1970 is shown to have accounted for more than half of the increase in female property crime that occurred during that decade .     

OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING DECISION AND CAPITAL INTENSITY: FIRM‐LEVEL RELATIONSHIPS

In offshore sourcing, a firm chooses outsourcing to independent suppliers or in‐sourcing from own foreign direct investment (FDI) subsidiaries. Based on the firm‐level data on offshore make‐or‐buy decision covering all manufacturing industries, this paper compares averages, documents inter‐firm distributions, and estimates multinomial logit models of the firm's sourcing mode choice. As predicted by previous theoretical models, this paper directly confirms at the firm level that outsourcing firms tend to be substantially labor‐intensive compared with firms in‐sourcing from the same region, even after the firm's R&D intensity, firm size, or industry is controlled for. (JEL F23, L23, L24, L14)     

GUNS AND OIL: AN ANALYSIS OF CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS TRADE IN THE POST‐COLD WAR ERA

This paper analyzes the global conventional weapons trade between 1989 and 1999. We postulate that a key reason for the huge transfer of weapons to the Persian Gulf region is the enormous value of the oil wealth there along with the dependence of Western economies on access to the relatively cheap and steady supply of crude oil. We find a strong, positive, and robust empirical association between arms trade and crude oil trade and explain it as the result of a target price band arrangement that was responsible for the remarkably stable crude oil prices during our study period. (JEL F10, F59, Q38)     

DILEMMAS IN RESEARCH: ISSUES OF VULNERABILITY AND DISEMPOWERMENT FOR THE SOCIAL WORKER/RESEARCHER

Qualitative research ethics discussions have established a sound knowledge and practice base which advises on the protection and rights of the research informants. This paper, although supporting the primacy of informant safety, will highlight less visible research debates. The potential for vulnerability and harm of the social work researcher will be explored. The value of achieving heightened empathy and emotional resonance with research participants is considered as a process which the author suggests is likely to increase the richness of the research data, but also may accentuate researcher vulnerability or distress. The author's experience of doing personal research with vulnerable informants, and of being a social work research supervisor, will be used to reflect on processes and practices which she claims may make social work researchers particularly vulnerable to conflict and distress. Data from her recent research which explored the experiences of social work researchers will be used to illustrate these issues.     

TRADE COSTS AND JOB FLOWS: EVIDENCE FROM ESTABLISHMENT‐LEVEL DATA

Changes in the costs of trading inputs or final goods affect establishment‐level job flows. Using a longitudinal database containing the universe of manufacturing establishments in California from 1992 to 2004, we find that a decline in input or final‐good trade costs is associated with job destruction in the least productive establishments, job creation in the most productive establishments, and an increase in the death likelihood of the least productive establishments. The evidence is consistent with predictions of models of trade with heterogeneous firms. Additionally, the evidence shows that the effects of input trade costs on establishment‐level job flows are larger than the effects of final‐good trade costs. (JEL F14, F16)     

ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE AS CONTESTED GROUND IN AN ERA OF GLOBALIZATION: WORKER PERCEPTIONS AND SATISFACTION IN THE USPS

Many prior efforts have examined the personal characteristics of workers or the structural features of an organization that impact job satisfaction. By contrast, we examine organizational culture in the context of "high-performance work systems." We analyze the organizational culture of the United States Postal System, as it is presented in key organizational documents and perceived by workers. It is argued that a viable theory of job satisfaction in the modern workplace must treat worker perceptions, which spring from an organizational culture that is both prescribed and lived.     

PRIZE‐BASED MECHANISMS FOR FUND‐RAISING: THEORY AND EXPERIMENTS

We study the optimal design of mechanisms for the private provision of public goods in a setting in which donors compete for a prize of commonly known value. We discuss equilibrium bidding in mechanisms that promote both conditional cooperation and competition (i.e., the lottery and the all‐pay auction with the lowest‐bid payment rule) and rank their fund‐raising performance vis‐à‐vis their standard (pay‐your‐own‐bid) counterparts. The theoretically optimal mechanism in this model is the lowest‐price all‐pay auction—an auction in which the highest bidder wins the prize and all bidders pay the lowest bid. The highest amount for the public good is generated in the unique, symmetric, mixed‐strategy equilibrium of this auction. In the laboratory, the theoretically optimal mechanism generates the highest level of donations with three bidders but not with two bidders. (JEL D44, D64)