THE EFFECT OF HOUSE PRICE ON FERTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG

This article extends a standard Beckerian model of fertility behavior to formulate the effect of house price (HP) on fertility. The simple model predicts a negative effect of HP on the number of children for a representative household not only through the income effect but also through the compensated substitution effect. The prediction is confirmed by a cointegration analysis applied to the annual data at the aggregate level covering the period from 1971 to 2005 in Hong Kong. It is found that a 1% increase in HP is significantly related to a 0.45% decrease in total fertility rates (TFRs), which is robust in sensitivity tests with an alternative model specification and alternative measures of TFRs. This implies that high HP inflation can account for about 65% of the fertility decrease in Hong Kong in the past four decades. (JEL J13, J11, C32)     

DYNAMICS OF RETAIL ADVERTISING: EVIDENCE FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT

We use a controlled field experiment to investigate the dynamic effects of retail advertising. The experimental design overcomes limitations hindering previous investigations of this issue. Our study uncovers dynamic advertising effects that have not been considered in previous literature. We find that current advertising does affect future sales, but surprisingly, the effect is not always positive; for the firm's best customers, the long-run outcome may be negative. This finding reflects two competing effects: brand switching and intertemporal substitution. We also find evidence of cross-channel substitution, with the firm's best customers switching demand to the ordering channel that corresponds to the advertising. ( JEL L2, L81, M3)     

MIDWEEK EFFECT ON SOCCER PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

The home advantage phenomenon is a well‐established feature in sports competitions. In this study, we examine data from 2,013 soccer matches played in the German Bundesliga during the seasons from 2007–2008 to 2016–2017. Using a very rich data set, our econometric analysis that is based on matching methods reveals that the usual home advantage disappears when the game is in the middle of the week instead of being on the weekend. Our results indicate that, as the midweek matches are unevenly allocated among teams, the actual schedules of the Bundesliga favor teams with fewer home games in midweek. The study also shows that these soccer‐specific findings may have some implications for the design of contests in general. (JEL D00, L00, D20, Z20)     

SCHOOL QUALITY AND INFORMATION DISCLOSURE: EVIDENCE FROM THE HOUSING MARKET

In this article, we investigate the relationship between school quality and information disclosure in housing markets. When presented with the option of identifying their local public school in a real estate listing, we find that sellers with homes assigned to higher‐performing schools are more likely to provide this information. We find more evidence of selective disclosure in 2001–2002 than in 2006–2007, when the costs of gathering and disclosing information on school assignments and quality were lower. Furthermore, we find more evidence of strategic behavior among sellers of large single‐family units that presumably appeal to families with children. After controlling for school quality, information disclosure does not appear to affect housing prices. Taken together, our results support the findings of the education literature on the importance of school quality capitalization in residential real estate and they provide the first evidence of strategic information disclosure in housing markets. (JEL L15, I20, R31)     

LIMITS OF THE EFFECT OF SOCIAL INFORMATION ON THE VOLUNTARY PROVISION OF PUBLIC GOODS: EVIDENCE FROM FIELD EXPERIMENTS

Previous work has demonstrated the effect of social information in the voluntary provision of public goods in the field. In this article, we demonstrate the boundary conditions of the effect. We show that when social information is too extreme, it ceases to influence individual contributions. The results highlight a natural limitation of the social information effect, and provide a characterization of the most effective levels for an organization to use. (JEL M31, H41, D64)     

THE EFFECTS OF EDUCATION ON FERTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This study investigates the impact of women's education on fertility. For identification, we use the 1968 compulsory education law change in Taiwan, which generated a regression discontinuity design (RDD) setting. We use the whole population of women from the 1980 and 2010 Population Censuses. Results of our RDD estimation using the exact date of birth suggest that the law change was effective in boosting women's education, but it did not have any impact on fertility. This is in stark contrast to most previous studies using only the birth year as the running variable or using it to construct instruments, which find that women's education depresses fertility. This study demonstrates that using a discrete running variable in RDD may generate a false discontinuity for an otherwise continuous regression function. (JEL J13, C21, I2)     

THE LONDON BOMBINGS AND RACIAL PREJUDICE: EVIDENCE FROM THE HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET

This paper investigates the impact of the London bombings on attitudes toward ethnic minorities, examining outcomes in housing and labor markets across London boroughs. We use a difference‐in‐differences approach, specifying “treated” boroughs as those with the highest concentration of Asian residents. Our results indicate that house prices in treated boroughs fell by approximately 2% in the 2 years after the bombings relative to other boroughs, with sales declining by almost 6%. Furthermore, we present evidence of a rise in the unemployment rate in treated compared to control boroughs, as well as a rise in racial segregation. (JEL J15, J71, R21)     

THE PROCYCLICAL LEVERAGE EFFECT OF COLLATERAL VALUE ON BANK LOANS—EVIDENCE FROM THE TRANSACTION DATA OF TAIWAN

We investigated the empirical relationship between firms' collateral values and land-secured loans over asset price cycles. A simultaneous equation model of loan demand and supply was estimated using a transaction-level data set from Taiwan. The data set contains collateral information and identifies lenders and borrowers. We found that the value of collateralizable assets has positive and significant effects on loan amounts and that the leverage effect of collateral is procyclical to asset price cycles. Firms in the electronics industry, the star industry in the sample period, are found to borrow more than other firms do at each marginal dollar of collateral . ( JEL C50, E30, G20)     

THE EMPLOYMENT EFFECT OF DEREGULATING SHOPPING HOURS: EVIDENCE FROM GERMAN FOOD RETAILING

We study the effect of deregulating weekday shop opening hours on employment in retailing. Using administrative data on all German food shops, a difference‐in‐differences analysis shows that relaxing restrictions on opening hours raised employment by 0.4 workers per shop corresponding to an increase by 4%. This effect is driven by part‐time employment and employment in large shops, and it implies an increase by 0.1 workers per additional actual weekly opening hour. While the wage bill increased by less than employment, the deregulation seems not to have reduced earnings of workers already employed in retailing before the deregulation. (JEL J23, L51, L81)     

THE EFFECT OF HOUSING WEALTH LOSSES ON SPENDING IN THE GREAT RECESSION

We use panel data on a complete inventory of household spending and assets to estimate the spending response to the sharp and largely unexpected declines in house values that occurred in the Great Recession. Our study complements the existing literature on this topic by relying exclusively on longitudinal micro data on both household wealth and expenditure. Our data span the period 2002–2012, allowing us to separate trends in spending from innovations in response to unexpected wealth changes. We find the marginal propensity to consume out of an unexpected housing wealth change to be 6 cents per dollar among older American households. (JEL D12, D14, E21)     

THE IMPACT OF HIGH-TECH CAPITAL ON PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA

This article examines the relationship between high-tech capital use and productivity. Using Australian data, some evidence is found of a positive relationship between high-tech capital use and productivity in the market sector, but there is much less evidence of excess returns. These results are robust to the use of a variety of different measures of high-tech capital. At the industry level however, the relationship is significant and positive for only some industries. This suggests that the benefits of investment in high-tech capital are not spread evenly across the economy. (JEL O3 )     

THE EFFECT OF INCENTIVE‐INDUCED RETIREMENT ON SPOUSAL RETIREMENT RATES: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT

We identify, quantify, and explain the impact of incentive‐induced early retirement (ER) of husbands on their wives' probability to retire within 1 year, using administrative data from the Netherlands. Our identification strategy is based on a policy intervention by which targeted individuals working at the central government level became unexpectedly and temporarily eligible for very generous ER benefits. This retirement window of opportunity implied for interested workers that transitions from the current job into full retirement had to be effected swiftly and irreversibly. We find that induced ER of husbands increased their wives' probability to retire by 10 percentage points. This is a strong and robust local average treatment effect. Partly, the effect runs through wives at ages when they may have been eligible for ER programs themselves. (JEL C26, J26, J120, J140)     

EARLY EVIDENCE ON RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION AND TRAFFIC FATALITIES

Over the last few years, marijuana has become legally available for recreational use to roughly a quarter of Americans. Policy makers have long expressed concerns about the substantial external costs of alcohol, and similar costs could come with the liberalization of marijuana policy. Indeed, the fraction of fatal accidents in which at least one driver tested positive for tetrahydrocannabinol has increased nationwide by an average of 10% from 2013 to 2016. For Colorado and Washington, both of which legalized marijuana in 2014, these increases were 92% and 28%, respectively. However, identifying a causal effect is difficult due to the presence of significant confounding factors. We test for a causal effect of marijuana legalization on traffic fatalities in Colorado and Washington with a synthetic control approach using records on fatal traffic accidents from 2000 to 2016. We find the synthetic control groups saw similar changes in marijuana-related, alcohol-related, and overall traffic fatality rates despite not legalizing recreational marijuana. (JEL K42, I12, I18)     

THE EFFECT OF DIRECT DEMOCRACY ON INCOME REDISTRIBUTION: EVIDENCE FOR SWITZERLAND

In political economics, the impact of institutions on income redistribution is mainly studied by comparing different forms of representative democracy. In this article, we analyze the influence of direct democratic institutions on redistribution first focusing on welfare and nonwelfare spending using yearly panel data for Swiss cantons. Then, we estimate a model, which explains the determinants of actually achieved redistribution measured by Gini coefficients. While our results indicate that less public funds are used to redistribute income, inequality is not reduced to a lesser extent in direct than in representative democracies for a given initial income distribution. (JEL D7, D78, I30, H75, H11)     

THE EFFECTS OF EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION ON LABOR TURNOVER: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This paper investigates the effects of employment protection legislation on the rates of hiring, separation, worker flows, job reallocation, and churning flows for the case of Taiwan. Our empirical identification takes advantage of a reform created by Taiwan's enactment of Labor Standards Law, which has substantially increased the costs of firing, and the implementation of the law's enforcement measures. Moreover, our identification also exploits the fact that the stringency of the law's provisions and the intensity of the law's enforcement vary with establishment size. On the basis of the monthly data at the establishment level for the period 1983–1995, we find that Taiwan's Labor Standards Law and its enforcement measures have dampened labor turnover for medium‐sized and large establishments, while that of small establishments was not affected. (JEL J65, J63, J88)     

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION ON RETIREMENT PLANNING: EVIDENCE FROM A FIELD STUDY

Many households neglect the pivotal task of planning for retirement. Proposals to stimulate employees to save for retirement in the workplace include tax subsidies, which are costly, and using automatic defaults, which may not complement the heterogeneous preferences of savers. This randomized field study shows that an information‐based intervention increases reported retirement plan participation, emergency savings, and using a budget. Employees offered access to education increased actual retirement deferrals by $26 per month. These results suggest that retirement education programs may be an effective strategy to increase retirement planning and saving behavior. (JEL J26, D14, D91)     

NEIGHBORHOOD FAMILY-FRIENDLINESS AND ITS EFFECT ON FAMILY RELATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM UTAH

This article explores the effect of neighborhood family-friendliness on three measures of family relations: marital burnout, marital satisfaction, and parent-child relations. Regression analyses of survey data from northern Utah provide some support that neighborhood family-friendliness, measured here as neighborhood cohesion and neighborhood assessment, positively affects family functioning. For men, neighborhood cohesion was negatively associated with marital burnout and positively associated with marital satisfaction. For both men and women, neighborhood assessment was positively associated with marital satisfaction. These relationships were stronger for men than for women.     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR CONTRACTS: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL

The conventional Keynesian model suggests that frictions created by nominal wage contracts generate a positive relationship between inflation and output. On the other hand, the New Classical/Real Business Cycle theory claims that firms and workers base their employment behavior, and hence output, on the marginal product of labor ignoring the efficiencies of fixed nominal wage contracts. Using Brazilian data, where nominal wages were indexed by law, tests show that fixed nominal wage contracts insignificantly affected output. Thus, the data support the view that fixed nominal wages play an insignificant role in determining the evolution of output. ( JEL E31)