The Polls-Review: Inaccurate Age and Sex Data in the Census Pums Files: Evidence and Implications

We discover and document errors in public-use microdata samples ("PUMS files") of the 2000 Census, the 2003-2006 American Community Survey, and the 2004-2009 Current Population Survey. For women and men age 65 and older, age- and sex-specific population estimates generated from the PUMS files differ by as much as 15 percent from counts in published data tables. Moreover, an analysis of labor-force participation and marriage rates suggests the PUMS samples are not representative of the population at individual ages for those age 65 and over. PUMS files substantially underestimate labor-force participation of those near retirement age and overestimate labor-force participation rates of those at older ages. These problems were an unintentional byproduct of the misapplication of a newer generation of disclosure-avoidance procedures carried out on the data. The resulting errors in the public-use data could significantly impact studies of people age 65 and older, particularly analyses of variables that are expected to change by age.     

Migration and the Spatial Concentration of Poverty1

Current Population Survey data are used to estimate the effects of migration of the poor and nonpoor on the spatial concentration of poverty among five categories of counties defined by county poverty rates and, separately, among nonmetropolitan high-poverty areas, central city high-poverty areas, and other areas. During the 1981–1984 period studied, migration patterns of both the poor and nonpoor consistently reinforced pre-existing poverty concentrations. High migration rates of the poor into and out of high poverty counties suggests an equilibrium condition. Implications for theory, research, and policy are discussed.     

Earnings differences among the Mexican-origin population in the United States: nativity and citizenship explanations

The authors "use data from the June 1986 Current Population Survey to investigate nativity and citizenship differences in earnings within the Mexican-origin population in the United States. There is no evidence of any ?costs' of nativity or citizenship status. Rather, the existing variation appears to be more than explained by the distribution of earnings-related endowments. In fact, there is evidence that immigrants are better rewarded for their lower endowments. A possible explanation is that the Mexican-origin population is seen as homogeneous by employers, who therefore compensate individuals similarly, regardless of their respective endowments."     

Understanding Racial Differences in Marital Disruption: Recent Trends and Explanations

We use data from the Current Population Survey to investigate racial differences in recent patterns of marital disruption. Although a leveling in the trend of disruption has occurred for White women since 1980, our results suggest less stabilization in rates of disruption among Black women. We also observe significant differences by race in the effects of key compositional factors on the risk of marital disruption, including age at marriage, education, premarital childbearing, and region of residence. Differences in population composition with respect to these characteristics, however, cannot alone explain the overall racial gap in disruption.     

Welfare Reform and Elderly Immigrants' Naturalization: Access to Public Benefits as an Incentive for Naturalization in the United States

Welfare reform in the United States restricted non‐citizens' eligibility for public assistance programs and strengthened economic benefits from naturalization. We examine the impact of these policy changes on elderly immigrants' naturalization, considering their level of need for public benefits. Using individual data from the Current Population Survey as well as state‐level data, we employ a differences‐in‐differences approach to consider variations in time, state policy, and probability of Medicaid participation. Results show that naturalization significantly increased among elderly immigrants who were likely to participate in Medicaid, suggesting that elderly immigrants in need of Medicaid became naturalized to maintain their eligibility for public benefits after welfare reform.     

Racial differences in retirement income: the roles of public and private income sources

Despite great overall improvement in the elderly's economic status over the past two decades, minority elders still comprise the poorest population group of all. Nonetheless, the income security of minority elders has not been given special attention in the scrutiny in recent years of the size and the future of various federal programs affecting older persons. Based on data from the 1971, 1981, and 1991 public-use data tapes of the Current Population Survey, the racial difference in income status of the elderly and the role of Social Security and Supplemental Security income versus that of income from private sources are analyzed in terms of how income inequality among races is ameliorated or escalated. The findings show that racial/ethnic differences in income status increased between 1970 and 1990. The findings also confirm that, for both elderly singles and couples, Social Security is the most important income source. Without it, poverty rates among elderly black couples, for example, would have increased by as much as 48.5 percentage points in 1990. Policies that would help improve the income status of the low-income elderly are discussed.     

Unanswered Questions and New Directions in Research on Elderly Migration: Economic and Demographic Perspectives

The availability of data from the 1990 Census and the Retirement and Health Survey will afford researchers an unparalleled opportunity to study elderly migration from several perspectives. This article focuses on economic and demographic issues. Census data will continue to serve the role of providing small area data on flows and will permit further disaggregation of behavioral differences according to age, marital status, and household relationship. They will also permit disaggregation according to the economic status of individuals and their households which, coupled with aggregate data on places of origin and destination, will facilitate comparison between such areas. The RHS data will go a long way to investigate questions thought to lie at the heart of migration behavior of older persons, but which have been difficult or impossible to study. Central to such questions will be the availability of a migration history, which will permit research on the interaction of migration behavior with critical life-course events such as retirement and the loss of a spouse.     

Unanswered questions and new directions in research on elderly migration: economic and demographic perspectives

The availability of data from the 1990 Census and the Retirement and Health Survey will afford researchers an unparalleled opportunity to study elderly migration from several perspectives. This article focuses on economic and demographic issues. Census data will continue to serve the role of providing small area data on flows and will permit further disaggregation of behavioral differences according to age, marital status, and household relationship. They will also permit disaggregation according to the economic status of individuals and their households which, coupled with aggregate data on places of origin and destination, will facilitate comparison between such areas. The RHS data will go a long way to investigate questions thought to lie at the heart of migration behavior of older persons, but which have been difficult or impossible to study. Central to such questions will be the availability of a migration history, which will permit research on the interaction of migration behavior with critical life-course events such as retirement and the loss of a spouse.     

W/age bias in worker displacement: how industrial structure shapes the job loss and earnings decline of older American workers

This paper examines age differences in patterns of worker displacement and employment and earnings changes of displaced workers. Data from the 1998 Displaced Worker Supplement (DWS) of the Current Population Survey (CPS) indicate that older displaced workers possessed higher weekly wages than did younger workers at the time of their displacement. Moreover, older displaced workers suffered greater amounts of earnings loss than did younger displaced workers. Older workers, more often than younger workers, were displaced from jobs in the goods-producing sector. We attribute this age and industry difference in displacement to the higher earnings premium of older workers in the goods producing sector relative to the earnings premium of older workers in the service-producing sector. The age bias against older displaced workers may be viewed as part of social structural changes in the economy that have reduced the wage premium of the more expensive age segment of the workforce within industries that may economically benefit the most.     

Does Selective Migration Matter? Explaining Ethnic Disparities in Educational Attainment among Immigrants’Children1

Understanding why some national‐origin groups excel in school while others do not is an enduring sociological puzzle. This paper examines whether the degree of immigrants’educational selectivity ‐ that is, how immigrants differ educationally from non‐migrants in the home country ‐ influences educational outcomes among groups of immigrants’children. This study uses published international data and U. S. Census and Current Population Survey data on 32 immigrant groups to show that as immigrants’educational selectivity increases, the college attainment of the second generation also increases. Moreover, the more positive selection of Asian immigrants helps explain their second generations’higher college attendance rates as compared to Europeans, Afro‐Caribbeans, and Latinos. Thus, the findings suggest that inequalities in relative pre‐migration educational attainments among immigrants are often reproduced among the next generation in the United States.     

Family Structure Among Urban,Rural and Farm Populations: Classic Sociological Theory Revisited

Abstract As predicted by the classic sociological theories of Durkheim, Tonnies, and others, early sociological researchers found extensive differences between urban and rural residents in the United States. In recent decades, many of these differences have appeared to wane, or in some cases, totally disappear. Based on these classic theories, we maintain that many of the urban/rural differences found in the past were actually farm/nonfarm differences. Further, we argue that many of these differences continue to exist in rural America, but they have been suppressed by major demographic transitions. Utilizing Current Population Survey data on family structure, we found that there were few significant differences between urban and rural nonfarm residents, but both varied extensively from various segments of the farm population.     

The Late-Life Divorced

This study on divorce and the elderly includes a secondary analysis of data taken from Current Population Reports (CPR) and from The National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH). Age specific divorce prevalence rates calculated using the CPR, suggests an increase in the proportion of elderly divorced persons over the last 15 years, with the proportion of divorced women being greater than that of divorced men. Findings from the analysis of NSFH data suggests that women were more likely to turn to others for emotional support during separation than were men. Older women were more likely to than older men, The younger were more likely to than the older. Older women had better adjustment scores and overall happiness than did older men.     

An Introduction to Nonparametric Regression for Labor Economists

In this article we overview nonparametric (spline and kernel) regression methods and illustrate how they may be used in labor economics applications. We focus our attention on issues commonly found in the labor literature such as how to account for endogeneity via instrumental variables in a nonparametric setting. We showcase these methods via data from the Current Population Survey.     

Harvesting Human Capital: Family Structure and Education Among Rural Youth1

Abstract Coleman's (1988) theory of family social capital provides a conceptual framework for assessing the relationship between several dimensions of family structure and school dropout rates among nonmetro-politan youth. This paper evaluates the extent to which higher rural than urban dropout rates are attributable to spatial differences in family structure (e.g., living arrangements, family size, and early childbearing) or economic resources (e.g., poverty) and estimates the differential effects of family structure and poverty on school dropout rates in nonmetropolitan areas, suburbs, and central cities. Data are drawn from the March 1990 Current Population Survey. Results indicate that residential differences in family structure account for a relatively small part of the higher dropout rates found in rural areas. Rural youth's experience with poverty appears to matter more. The educational effects of family structure are nevertheless strong in rural areas, albeit somewhat smaller than in suburban areas, owing perhaps to compensating forms of social capital found in rural areas. The results suggest that studies of dropout behavior—in rural or urban areas—must acknowledge the potentially large role of family structure and economic resources on the educational achievement process.     

Change in the undocumented alien population in the United States, 1979-1983

"This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens included in the April 1983 Current Population Survey (CPS) derived by subtracting an estimate of the legally resident foreign born population from the survey estimate of all foreign born residents.... Also presented are similar estimates for the November 1979 CPS.... Estimates are presented by period of entry for Mexico and other groups of countries. Comparison of the April 1983 estimate with the census-based estimate and the November 1979 survey-based estimate provide an indication of growth in the undocumented alien population for 1980-83."     

Changing Linkages Between Work and Poverty in Rural America1

Abstract The changing relationship between work and poverty in non-metropolitan (nonmetro) America is documented using data from the 1980 and 1990 March supplements of the Current Population Survey. Specifically, this paper assesses changing differentials in the proportion of poor people who are working; documents the rapid rise in poverty among nonmetro and metropolitan (metro) workers during the 1979—1989 period, especially among young adults and females; and provides evidence of growing inequality between metro and nonmetro workers, a pattern that cannot be explained by differences in work attachment, human capital, or job characteristics. The results imply that poverty is a persistent if not increasingly harsh reality for workers in rural America.     

Asian Americans and Voting Participation: Comparing Racial and Ethnic Differences in Recent U.S. Elections

This research assesses the significance of race and ethnicity in the participation of Asian Americans in recent U.S. elections. It reviews the major characteristics of the nonwhite, multiethnic population in recent census surveys and discusses the necessity for voting behavior research to address effects of international migration on eligibility issues in voting participation. Results from analyzing U.S. Current Population Survey Voter Supplement files, 1994–2000, indicate that Asian Americans' apparent deficit in voting participation among voting‐age persons can be reduced, removed, or even reversed when restricting analyses only to eligible persons. Multivariate analyses controlling for a set of institutional, contextual, and individual factors show that being Asian and foreign born may have the net effect of increasing voting registration, while being U.S. born and Asian may have the contrary effect, compared to non‐Hispanic whites of comparable background. Nativity is not significant in impacting turnout among registered Asians as a whole, but U.S.‐born Asians are less likely to turn out compared to their white counterparts. Among other findings, being foreign born may enhance the registration likelihood for Chinese, Korean, and Asian Indian American citizens and the turnout likelihood of registered Korean Americans.     

Policymaking for diversity among the aged in India

Population aging is occurring rapidly in India, and the implications of an aging society are likely to be experienced in an adverse manner unless immediate steps are taken to provide social security for all of India's older population. Current provision by central and state governments is grossly inadequate. This article analyzes the major Indian states across three income groups and describes the differences and inequalities across states and rural/urban areas with regard to income, living arrangements, pension benefits, etc. The efforts by central and state governments to meet the needs of older persons are outlined and critiqued. Suggestions are made for the establishment of more equitable income security, and health and social services schemes.     

Population Migration and Urbanization in China: A Comparative Analysis of the 1990 Population Census and the 1995 National One Percent Sample Population Survey

This article examines the changing pattern of population migration and its implications for the urbanization process in China as revealed by the 1990 Population Census and the 1995 National One Percent Sample Population Survey. It is found that, in comparison with the period 1985–90, migration in the period 1990–95 tended to be more distance sensitive, reflecting the increase in the number of migration foci resulting from the policy of opening on all fronts. Foreign investment also appears to have a greater effect on migration flow. Proportionately, there was an increase in both village‐to‐village and city‐to‐city migrations. The former was most sensitive to increase in distance while the latter was least sensitive. As for rural‐to‐urban flows, which include both village‐to‐town and village‐to‐city flows, migrants in China increasingly bypassed the towns and ended up in the cities.     

Female Labor Migrants to Shanghai: Temporary “Floaters” or Potential Settlers?1

Using data on 54,373 migrants from the Fifth Sampling Survey of the Floating Population of Shanghai, this article isolates a group of 32,967 rural labor migrants who hold rural household registrations and whose previous occupations were in agriculture, and focuses on the women among them. The demographic and occupational characteristics of these 9,124 women are described, demonstrating that migration to Shanghai is a highly gendered process, with men and women working in different occupations and sectors. Moreover, important differences are found to exist between unmarried and married female rural labor migrants that indicate that the latter are probably accompanying and working with their migrant husbands. A significant proportion of female “social” migrants also exhibit characteristics that indicate that they are the spouses of male rural labor migrants, bringing to over one third the proportion of rural labor migrants to Shanghai who could be migrating as couples. These couples and their children may be the vanguard in a transition from temporary labor migration to settlement in China's large cities.