Nontraditional families and childhood progress through school

I use U.S. census data to perform the first large-sample, nationally representative tests of outcomes for children raised by same-sex couples. The results show that children of same-sex couples are as likely to make normal progress through school as the children of most other family structures. Heterosexual married couples are the family type whose children have the lowest rates of grade retention, but the advantage of heterosexual married couples is mostly due to their higher socioeconomic status. Children of all family types (including children of same-sex couples) are far more likely to make normal progress through school than are children living in group quarters (such as orphanages and shelters).     

On solutions of the cohort parity analysis model

"The cohort parity analysis (CPA) model of David et al. (1988) is studied formally as a three-state parity-progression table. The general solution is found in a form of convex combination of a finite set of solutions which are described explicitly. A parameterization is suggested for a broad subset of solutions which includes two extreme solutions studied in the original publication and maintains the dimension of the entire set. The CPA solution is also treated as a random variate distributed uniformly on the set of all possible solutions. An algorithm is given for computing the marginal distributions without Monte Carlo simulation." (EXCERPT)     

Summative scales for measuring community satisfaction

Results of this study indicate that pen and paper questionnaire procedures can be successfully adapted to random digit dialing telephone interview methods. Further, the study produced a reliable instrument for measuring attitudes about how residents perceive their communities as a place to live.     

A technique for measuring preferences for spending reductions

A question format for assessing people's preferences for spending reductions which can be used as part of telephone-administered surveys is discussed. Experiences with two field tests of the format are promising in that the response rates to question series as well as the validities of measures obtained from using the format compare favorably with similar assessments of rank-order formats. While cautionary use of the cutback technique is recommended, the findings reported here are encouraging enough to warrant further experimentation with it.     

A new technique for measuring household changes

Because many recent policy decisions have been aimed at effecting changes in the socioeconomic characteristics of families or households, it has become necessary to isolate policy-induced changes from demographic changes in households over time. To obtain such longitudinal data, the family records from three panels of the Current Population Survey that were interviewed both in March, 1964, and March, 1965, were used in a computer record-matching operation.The resulting data confirm that approximately 20 percera of all households are mobile in the period of a year as evidenced by the nonmatched households that were found in 1964 but not present in 1965. More important, the data indicate that S percent of the nonmobile family households became individual households, or the reverse, and 15 percent of all the remaining households changed in family size. These last two statistics represent the first national estimates of gross changes in the demographic characteristics of households.In addition to data on changes in households, this relatively inexpensive method can be used to match Current Population Survey persons' records and provide longitudinal data on the persons within households. Over all, this prototype technique offers policy planners an analytical tool with the necessary statistical controls for assessing the effects of policy decisions and predicting policy success.     

浅谈本部中等职业学校教师现代教育技术态度的形成

本文分析了中等职业学校教师现代教育技术的态度和形成过程,提出了中等职业学校教师要加强现代教育思想观念,加强对现代教育技术的宣传和培训,从现代教育技术的使用等方面来培养教师现代教育技术的积极态度。     

Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts

This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise "early warning" thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions.     

A cohort analysis of the timing of first birth and fertility in Ghana

This paper examines the nature of the inverse association between age at first birth and fertility across successive generations of Ghanaian women. Within the context of enhanced non-marital opportunities for contemporary women and declining fertility, we develop a rationale for and test the hypothesis that in a medium fertility environment as currently found in Ghana, the effect of age at first birth on fertility becomes more important than ever before. Five birth cohorts were identified (1938–1944; 1945–1949;1950–1954; 1955–1959; 1960–1964)from a merged file of the 1988, 1993 and 1998 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. The analyses were restricted to women over 35 years old at the time of the surveys, which allowed us to use current parity as a reasonable proxy for completed fertility. Preliminary results suggest that women who had first births early tend to have a higher number of births than those whose first births occur late, regardless of birth cohort. In multivariate analyses, the effect of age at first birth as a determinant of fertility was found to be more substantial among later cohorts. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

A new technique for measuring preferences in demographic studies

In this article, we introduce an alternative technique to the single-sentence question for measuring preferences for number of children, age at marriage, length of first birth interval, length of employment, and years of schooling. This new measurement procedure utilizes a graphic scale rather than verbal responses, and it places family size decisions within the context of several other major life cycle decisions. One month reliability data for the measurement technique were obtained from a sample of 107 school children. Reliability results are compared to data from a previous study of teenagers.     

Child schooling in Peru: Evidence from a sequential analysis of school progression

Primary enrolment rates are very high in Peru, but so are the failure and drop-out rates. Thus an understanding of the nature of child schooling should consider school progression from primary to secondary and higher levels, taking account of the conditional sequence with the previous level and self-selection into the next higher level of schooling. Using a unique correlated sequential probit model with unobserved heterogeneity the present paper does so and obtains richer results, argued to be better than the standard static estimates. It is shown that the same set of individual/parental/household characteristics may affect different levels of schooling differently.The author is much grateful to the Managing Editor and also the Journal referees for their helpful and constructive comments. She also wishes to thank Cardiff Business School for the research grant and Gerry Makepeace for comments on an earlier draft of the paper. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

A value based index for measuring national quality of life

A new index of the quality of life (QOL) of nations was created. The measured variables are selected based on a universal set of human values derived from the work of Schwartz (1994). The Basic QOL Index, designed primarily to discriminate between developing countries, includes seven variables: purchasing power, homicide rate, fulfillment of basic physical needs, suicide rate, literacy rate, gross human rights violations, and deforestation. The Advanced QOL Index, designed primarily to assess QOL in highly industrialized nations, includes seven variables: physicians per capita, savings rate, per capita income, subjective well-being, percent attending college, income equality, and environmental treaties signed. Combining the two indices produced a reliable measure of QOL that systematically covers diverse human values. The nations scoring highest on the Combined QOL Index were Canada, Switzerland, Netherlands, U.S.A., and Norway, and those scoring lowest were Ethiopia and Rwanda.     

A consumption model for measuring poverty: An exploratory exercise

The general purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a consumption model to estimate poverty level of paddy farmers in Malaysia. The consumption model was based on four selected domains of life, namely quality of housing and local facilities, durable ownership, health status, and food intake. The data for this study were taken from the Level of Living Study (1986–1990) conducted by the Department of Human Development, Agriculture University of Malaysia. The sample consisted of 600 paddy farmers, selected randomly. Two consumption models — orthogonal and oblique — were tested using confirmatory factor analysis. The findings revealed that the oblique model was better fitted to the data than the orthogonal model.     

A cohort analysis of Korean immigrants' class backgrounds and socioeconomic status in the United States

"In this article, I first survey briefly the history of Korean immigration to the United States from 1903 to the present. Second, I explain the motivations and entry mechanisms that brought Korean immigrants into the United States. Third, I document and explain the changes in the class backgrounds of Korean immigrants during the last three decades. Finally, I examine how such changes have affected the patterns of social and economic adaptation among the different waves of immigrants."     

A technique for measuring the effect of economic base on opportunity for blacks

An assessment of the occupational opportunities for selected groups of in-migrants (i.e., Negroes) requires a technique which controls for effects of both national and local employment patterns. We suggest a measure based upon the location quotient and referred to as the "differential opportunity ratio" as a method which provides the necessary controls. It is applicable in the comparative studies of cities and in analyses of other population groups for which data are available.     

The impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts

This paper describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana. For the district in question, a group of residents pointed to the apparent growth in the number of kindergartners as a reason not to close schools in their area. Having uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an enrollment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had been conditioned to expect future enrollment growth by not only the policy effect but by local media reports on the national Baby Boomlet, a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the residents. This experience tends to validate the argument made by others that the participation of professional demographers in an adversarial procedure can be beneficial in helping to formulate long-term plans.Paper presented at the Fifteenth Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Toronto, Canada, 4–7 June 1995.     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.