非上市公司的债转股比例研究

一、引言债转股是国家为改善部分国有企业资产负债结构 ,解决国有企业负债率过高和资本金不足所采取的一项政策性较强的措施。国务院《关于实施债权转股权若干问题的意见》规定实施债转股的企业必须转换经营机制 ,实行规范的公司制改革 ,最后还需经过金融资产管理公司的独立评审 ,同时还规定实施债转股要按照市场经济的原则和有关规范规程操作 ,防止国有资产流失。由此可知 ,如何评估和确定债转股的比例关系是债转股实施过程中一个非常重要的事情。因为对于金融资产管理公司来讲 ,一定数量的债权所转换的股权越多越好 ,因为这有利于将来金融…     

对"债转股"有关问题的思考

实施债转股工作对解决国有企业过度负债和国有银行不良债权具有积极作用。推行债转股可以让企业选择更多的融资方式 ,为企业创造更为公平的竞争环境 ,为推进国有银行的改革赢得宝贵时间等 ,但其在既定条件下的局限性也应引起足够重视。债转股的运作中要注意严把准入关 ,确保金融资产管理公司的市场化运作 ,正确发挥中介机构的作用 ,发展资本市场 ,大力推进国有企业改组和经营机制的转换     

广西“债转股”实施情况的调查

“债权转股权”也就是日常人们所说的“债转股”。它是通过国有商业银行组建金融资产管理公司,依法处置银行原有的在国有企业的不良信贷资产,同时客观上也有助于国有大中型企业实现三年改革与脱困目标的实现。为了及时了解和反映广西实施“债转股”政策企业的工作进展状况,广西区企业调查队根据有关文件要求,于今年7月对广西“债转股”企业进行了问卷调查,并走访或电话调查了有关单位。     

再析债转股

债转股是国家为解决国有商业银行的贷款沉积 ,增强其信用度 ,同时使国有企业摆脱困境、走出低谷、重振雄风所采取的一种新措施。它的实施步骤是将原国有企业的银行借款通过国家拨给资产管理公司 ,作为其资本购买国有银行的债权 ,转为国有资产管理公司对国有企业的股权投资 ,使国有企业由借款转变为权益资本。对这种债权转为股权 ,债务转变为权益资本 ,究竟有哪些益处与风险 ?笔者将作以下浅析 :一、债转股的性质债转股 ,从投资者角度来说是权利间的交易 ,是在两个投资者之间进行的 ,但两个投资者都属国有 ,是真正意义上的债权转股权。但对债…     

中国不良金融股权管理的目标函数重构与目标选择

自上世纪末我国采用“好银行”与“坏银行”模式成立国家金融资产管理公司专门处置巨额不良金融资产以来,国家将债转股作为一项重要手段加以运     

国有企业债转股后存在的问题跟踪调查

我国政府将债转股问题付诸实践,是希望通过成立资产管理公司,借助债转股的方式,解决我国金融业存在的大量不良资产问题,化解金融风险,同时推动国有企业改革,加快国有企业解困的进程。但是债     

山西“债转股”改革的现状与发展趋势

“债转股”是近年来我国国有企业制度改革的一项重大举措。实施“债转股”,对于解决我国国有企业的债务负担和改善国有企业的负债结构以及对商业银行剥离不良资产和增强抵御风险能力都有着积极的推动作用。山西省从2000年开始,先后对23家国有企业实行了债转股,经过三年多的改制,这些企业的生产经营情况如何?改制和经营过程中还存在哪些困难和问题。本文通过对山西省“债转股”企业改制前后的比较分析,并就存在的主要问题提出了进一步完善的建议,仅供有关方面参考。一、我国实施“债转股”的历史背景及相关问题我国国有企业在计划经济向市场…     

黑龙江省:“债转股”促企业扭亏脱困

“债转股”是国家为防范和化解金融风险,减轻企业债务负担,促进国有企业扭亏脱困和加快建立现代企业制度的一项重大举措。据对我省２１户已与资产管理公司签定“债转股”协议的企业调查看,他们紧紧抓住“债转股”的黄金机遇,医治亏损症,使“债转股”成为企业扭亏脱困的一剂良药,对企业改革与发展产生了积极的影响。 一、“债转股”企业扭亏脱困初见成效 １、企业亏损得到有效遏制。据对２１户“债转股”企业调查显示,今年上半年亏损总额为４．７４亿元,同比减亏１．８５亿元,减幅为２８．１％。另据调查预测：今年有较大盈利的企业…     

2000年：国人最关心什么？

2000年是新旧世纪的交替之年，具有承前启后的重大意义。在新世纪的开局之年，国人的心态如何，他们最关心什么呢？国企三年改革与脱困目标能实现吗？用三年左右时间使大多数国有大中型亏损企业摆脱困境，是党中央、国务院作出的一项重大战略决策。2000年是国有企业三年改革与脱困的最后一年，也是关键一年，为了努力实现这一目标，十五届四中全会作出进一步深化国有企业改革的决定，实施了“债转股”等重大政策措施，国有企业已经向良性循环方向迈进。据有关方面负责人说，国家前年确定的亏损企业。至少有一半在1999年底扭亏为盈。但是，目…     

论债传股的市场化经营

一、问题的提出——怎样看待和评价债转股,尤其是如何培育和发展资本市场。从而为债转股的市场化经营创造条件,是一个事关债转股的大问题。 债转股政策出台后,相当多的人对债转股给予了很高的评价。有人认为债转股是“国有企业改革的杀手锏”,也有人认为债转股是“治理通货紧缩的一剂良药”,还有人认为债转股是“证券公司、投资银行利润的新增长点”,甚至有人认为债转股是“既解商业银行不良资产之忧,又解国有企业经营困难之苦,进而达到商业银行和国有企业‘双活’(或‘双赢’)     

A novel approach to estimation of the time to biomarker threshold: applications to HIV

In longitudinal studies of biomarkers, an outcome of interest is the time at which a biomarker reaches a particular threshold. The CD4 count is a widely used marker of human immunodeficiency virus progression. Because of the inherent variability of this marker, a single CD4 count below a relevant threshold should be interpreted with caution. Several studies have applied persistence criteria, designating the outcome as the time to the occurrence of two consecutive measurements less than the threshold. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the time to attainment of two consecutive CD4 counts less than a meaningful threshold, which takes into account the patient‐specific trajectory and measurement error. An expression for the expected time to threshold is presented, which is a function of the fixed effects, random effects and residual variance. We present an application to human immunodeficiency virus‐positive individuals from a seroprevalent cohort in Durban, South Africa. Two thresholds are examined, and 95% bootstrap confidence intervals are presented for the estimated time to threshold. Sensitivity analysis revealed that results are robust to truncation of the series and variation in the number of visits considered for most patients. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the estimated times for patients who exhibit very slow rates of decline and patients who have less than three measurements. We also discuss the relevance of the methodology to the study of other diseases and present such applications. We demonstrate that the method proposed is computationally efficient and offers more flexibility than existing frameworks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Current Duration Approach to Estimating Time to Pregnancy

Abstract. Time‐to‐pregnancy (TTP) is the duration from the time a couple starts trying to become pregnant until they succeed. It is considered one of the most direct methods to measure natural fecundity in humans. Statistical tools for designing and analysing time to pregnancy studies belong to survival analysis, but several features require special attention. Prospective designs are difficult to carry out and retrospective (pregnancy‐based) designs, being widely used in this area, do not allow efficiently including couples remaining childless. A third possible design starts from a cross‐sectional sample of couples currently trying to become pregnant, using current duration (backward recurrence time) as basis for the estimation of TTP. Regression analysis is then most conveniently carried out in the accelerated failure time model. This paper surveys some practical and technical‐statistical issues in implementing this approach in a large telephone‐based survey, the Epidemiological Observatory of Fecundity in France (Obseff).     

Beyond Google: Bibliographic Transformation to Connect Users to Good Content

ABSTRACT

At the 2017 North Carolina Serials Conference, keynote speaker Regina Romano Reynolds—Director, U.S. ISSN Center and Head, ISSN Section at the Library of Congress—explored how bibliographic transformation can connect users to good-quality content. Offering examples of current and potential serials management projects, Reynolds shared her vision for breaking down information silos, experimenting in the resource management space, and the need for visionary leadership.     

A parametric model fitting time to first event for overdispersed data: application to time to relapse in multiple sclerosis

In this article, we propose a parametric model for the distribution of time to first event when events are overdispersed and can be properly fitted by a Negative Binomial distribution. This is a very common situation in medical statistics, when the occurrence of events is summarized as a count for each patient and the simple Poisson model is not adequate to account for overdispersion of data. In this situation, studying the time of occurrence of the first event can be of interest. From the Negative Binomial distribution of counts, we derive a new parametric model for time to first event and apply it to fit the distribution of time to first relapse in multiple sclerosis (MS). We develop the regression model with methods for covariate estimation. We show that, as the Negative Binomial model properly fits relapse counts data, this new model matches quite perfectly the distribution of time to first relapse, as tested in two large datasets of MS patients. Finally we compare its performance, when fitting time to first relapse in MS, with other models widely used in survival analysis (the semiparametric Cox model and the parametric exponential, Weibull, log-logistic and log-normal models).     

A Bayesian non-parametric modeling to estimate student response to ICT investment†

This paper estimates the causal impact of investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) on student performances in mathematics as measured in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012 for Spain. To do this we apply a new methodology in this context known as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees that has important advantages over more standard parametric specifications. Results indicate that ICT has a moderate positive effect on math scores. In addition, we analyze how this effect interacts with variables related to school features and student socioeconomic status, finding that ICT investment is especially beneficial for students from a low socioeconomic background.     

Three approaches to sequential analysis and one to hidden Markov processes

Three approaches to sequential analysis are reviewed: Chernoff's development of the Wald approach, the dynamic programming analysis developed by the author some years ago and a ‘path-averaging’ approach which exploits the random-walk properties of the log-posterior under a given hypothesis. These last two approaches led to explicit determinations of the optimal decision boundary and its associated costs in the limit of a small sampling cost, for a general number of hypotheses. However, the particular interest of the path-averaging approach is that it applies also to state-estimation for a hidden Markov model, where it leads to Eq. (39), which gives an immediate indication of the effectiveness with which the different states are estimated.     

Loss-based approach to two-piece location-scale distributions with applications to dependent data

Two-piece location-scale models are used for modeling data presenting departures from symmetry. In this paper, we propose an objective Bayesian methodology for the tail parameter of two particular distributions of the above family: the skewed exponential power distribution and the skewed generalised logistic distribution. We apply the proposed objective approach to time series models and linear regression models where the error terms follow the distributions object of study. The performance of the proposed approach is illustrated through simulation experiments and real data analysis. The methodology yields improvements in density forecasts, as shown by the analysis we carry out on the electricity prices in Nordpool markets.

     

Letters to the Editor

Although several authors have indicated that the median test has low power in small samples, it continues to be presented in many statistical textbooks, included in a number of popular statistical software packages, and used in a variety of application areas. We present results of a power simulation study that shows that the median test has noticeably lower power, even for the double exponential distribution for which it is asymptotically most powerful, than other readily available rank tests. We suggest that the median test be “retired” from routine use and recommend alternative rank tests that have superior power over a relatively large family of symmetric distributions.     

A general approximation to quantiles

For many continuous distributions, a closed-form expression for their quantiles does not exist. Numerical approximations for their quantiles are developed on a distribution-by-distribution basis. This work develops a general approximation for quantiles using the Taylor expansion. Our method only requires that the distribution has a continuous probability density function and its derivatives can be derived to a certain order (usually 3 or 4). We demonstrate our unified approach by approximating the quantiles of the normal, exponential, and chi-square distributions. The approximation works well for these distributions.     

Application of Anbar's Approach to Hypothesis Testing to Detect the Difference between Two Proportions

In this paper, Anbar's (1983) approach for estimating a difference between two binomial proportions is discussed with respect to a hypothesis testing problem. Such an approach results in two possible testing strategies. While the results of the tests are expected to agree for a large sample size when two proportions are equal, the tests are shown to perform quite differently in terms of their probabilities of a Type I error for selected sample sizes. Moreover, the tests can lead to different conclusions, which is illustrated via a simple example; and the probability of such cases can be relatively large. In an attempt to improve the tests while preserving their relative simplicity feature, a modified test is proposed. The performance of this test and a conventional test based on normal approximation is assessed. It is shown that the modified Anbar's test better controls the probability of a Type I error for moderate sample sizes.