Age, period, and cohort effects on religious activities and beliefs

Despite the theoretical emphasis on religious decline in modern societies, sociologists remain divided over trends in religious activity and belief that support or refute claims of religious decline. Much of this disagreement stems from the inability to distinguish between period and cohort effects when analyzing repeated cross-sectional survey data. I use the intrinsic estimator, a recently developed method of simultaneously estimating age, period, and cohort effects, to examine changes in Americans’ religious service attendance, prayer, belief in the afterlife, and biblical literalism. Results show that regular service attendance declines, predominantly across cohorts. There are also period- and cohort-based declines in biblical literalism and a cohort-based decline in prayer. Belief in the afterlife is relatively stable across periods and cohorts. These results provide mixed support for theories of religious decline, and they demonstrate the importance of differentiating between period and cohort effects on social change.     

Skin color,sex, and educational attainment in the post-civil rights era

We assess the relationship between skin color and educational attainment for native-born non-Hispanic Black and White men and women, using data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study. CARDIA is a medical cohort study with twenty years of social background data and a continuous measure of skin color, recorded as the percent of light reflected off skin. For Black men and women, we find a one-standard-deviation increase in skin lightness to be associated with a quarter-year increase in educational attainment. For White women, we find an association approximately equal in magnitude to that found for Black respondents, and the pattern of significance across educational transitions suggests that skin color for White women is not simply a proxy for family background. For White men, any relationship between skin color and attainment is not robust and, analyses suggest, might primarily reflect differences in family background. Findings suggest that discrimination on the basis of skin color may be less specific to race than previously thought.     

Effects of relationship duration,cohabitation, and marriage on the frequency of intercourse in couples: Findings from German panel data

Research into the changes in the frequency of sexual intercourse is (with few exceptions) limited to cross-sectional analyses of marital duration. We investigate the frequency of intercourse while taking into account relationship duration as well as the duration of cohabitation and marriage, effects of parenthood, and relationship quality. For the analysis we apply fixed effects regression models using data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), a nationwide randomly sampled German panel survey. Our findings imply that the drop in sex frequency occurs early in the relationship, whereas neither cohabitation nor marriage affects the frequency of intercourse to a significant extent. Sex frequency is reduced during pregnancy and as long as the couple has small children, but becomes revived later on. Relationship quality is found to play a role as well. These results are contrary to the honeymoon effect found in earlier research, but indicate that in times of postponed marriage an analogous effect may be at work in the initial period of the relationship.     

Parental education,television exposure,and children's early cognitive,language and behavioral development

The association between television exposure and children's development is subject to controversial debates. Heavy television exposure may be detrimental to children by overstimulating their developing brains. It may also infringe on time that children would otherwise spend on more developmentally beneficial activities or parental interactions. In the present analysis, we use data from the 2004/5 birth cohort of the Growing Up in Scotland study to investigate relations between hours of weekly television measured around the ages of two to four and as average over this period with children's linguistic, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes around the age of five. Our analysis shows differences in the level and growth of television exposure by parental education. However, we did not find any substantive associations between television exposure and children's cognitive or language ability. We found small associations of television exposure with conduct problems and prosocial behavior, particularly for children of less-educated parents. Overall, the results suggest that the impact of television on children's development is less pronounced than often assumed.     

Examining macroeconomic determinants of trust in parliament: A dynamic multilevel framework

The extensive literature on political trust has long suggested a link between macroeconomic conditions and public trust in political institutions. However, empirical evidence regarding this relationship remains ambiguous. Conflicting results appear to be related to differences in research design: while cross-sectional studies tend not to find evidence of a link between macroeconomic variables and trust in political institutions, most longitudinal studies do. In this paper, using recent advances in multilevel methodology, we examine both cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of macroeconomic variables on trust in national parliament within a single dynamic multilevel framework. By analyzing all seven waves of the European Social Survey (2002–2014), we demonstrate that declining macroeconomic performance has a negative within-country effect on trust in national parliament. At the same time, we find limited evidence in support of this association at the between-country level. This discrepancy suggests the presence of confounding factors that are unaccounted for in cross-sectional designs. We therefore argue for the importance of examining within-country effects as they provide a more stringent test of causality.     

In the shade of a forest status,reputation, and ambiguity in an online microcredit market

Scholars have long recognized status and reputation as pervasive forces reproducing comparative advantage in social and economic systems. Yet, due in part to methodological challenges, relatively few studies have examined how status and reputation interact. We use data from an online market for peer-to-peer lending to study independent and joint effects of status and reputation on borrowers’ success at obtaining loans. First, we find a positive main effect of status, even when reputational signals are reliable and abundant. Second, we find that status matters the most for borrowers with moderate (rather than high or low) reputations, suggesting a curvilinear effect of status x reputation on loans. These results support the idea that status matters not only under conditions of too little information that creates information asymmetry, as typically assumed, but also under conditions of abundant information and too many choices that creates ambiguity about how to evaluate candidates.     

Period effects,cohort effects,and the narrowing gender wage gap

Despite the abundance of sociological research on the gender wage gap, questions remain. In particular, the role of cohorts is under investigated. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we use age–period–cohort analysis to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on the gender wage gap. The narrowing of the gender wage gap that occurred between 1975 and 2009 is largely due to cohort effects. Since the mid-1990s, the gender wage gap has continued to close absent of period effects. While gains in female wages contributed to declines in the gender wage gap for cohorts born before 1950, for later cohorts the narrowing of the gender wage gap is primarily a result of declines in male wages.     

Producing adulthood: Adolescent employment, fertility, and the life course

Adolescent employment is typically framed as having either positive or negative effects. Yet cutting edge research yields apparently contradictory results; work lowers delinquency but also increases school dropout. Both opportunity cost and life course development theories could explain these results. This study investigates effects of employment on fertility among adolescent women, which pits life course development against opportunity cost theory. Using 2006 and 2007 American Community Surveys, individual instrumental variable and state-level difference-in-difference models (following the same cohort over time) control for self-selection and find a positive effect of employment on adolescent fertility. National Vital Statistics birth data confirm state-level results. Results for fertility (and some evidence for other early transitions) indicate that youth employment speeds the transition to adulthood, supporting life course theory. Findings suggest adolescent employment should be reconceived as promoting adult rather than positive or negative behavior.     

The academic attitudes of American teenagers, 1990–2002: Cohort and gender effects on math achievement

Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 and the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, I compare the academic attitudes of high school students from Generation X and the Millennial Generation. I then analyze the effects these attitudes have on mathematics achievement test scores. Compared to the earlier group, students in the later cohort were less likely to indicate academic reasons for attending school and largely perceived their friends as being less engaged academically. Students in both cohorts whose friends held academic values experienced an increase in math scores. The more students in the earlier cohort disagreed that they came to school for academic reasons, the more their math scores decreased; this relationship did not appear for the later cohort. Females in each cohort showed stronger academic attitudes than males; additionally, believing that popularity was important was associated with lower test scores for females, but not males, in the Millennial cohort.     

No experience required: Violent crime and anticipated,vicarious, and experienced racial discrimination

There is a growing body of evidence linking racial discrimination and juvenile crime, and a number of theories explain this relationship. In this study, we draw on one popular approach, Agnew's general strain theory, and extend prior research by moving from a focus on experienced discrimination to consider two other forms, anticipated and vicarious discrimination. Using data on black, white, and Hispanic youth, from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN), we find that experienced, anticipated, and to a lesser extent, vicarious discrimination, significantly predict violent crime independent of a set of neighborhood, parental, and individual level controls, including prior violent offending. Additional analyses on the specific contexts of discrimination reveal that violence is associated with the anticipation of police discrimination. The effects tend to be larger for African American than Hispanic youth, but the differences are not statistically significant. These findings support the thesis that, like other strains, discrimination may not have to be experienced directly to influence offending.     

Public school accountability,workplace culture,and teacher morale

Educational scholars claim that teacher morale has suffered from accountability pressures and constrained professionalism, but exactly what is most diminished by these pressures remains unclear. Drawing on recent theoretical work on public school organizational culture, we hypothesize that accountability pressures hurt teacher morale and increase the risk of turnover by undermining the professional culture of the school and by diminishing teacher cooperation and trust. We find support for this hypothesis in a national sample of teachers in 2011–12, and a follow-up survey from 2012–13. The analyses test whether a collective pedagogical teacher culture, comprised of professional culture and teacher collaboration, buffers the impact of these pressures that diminish teacher morale. Counter to past research, we find that a strong collective pedagogical teacher culture does not buffer teachers from the ill effects of negative workplace conditions in the form of accountability pressures. We also find that accountability pressures in the form of district dismissals are associated with a higher likelihood of teachers leaving their school, and this relationship is not mitigated by strong professional culture. We conclude that accountability pressures partly undermine goals of improving performance and equity in public schools by sowing seeds of teacher dissatisfaction and contributing to teacher turnover, thus thwarting student achievement in struggling schools.     

The earnings payoff from attending a selective college

Studies relating the selectivity of colleges to the earnings of their graduates report inconsistent findings. Some find no effects; most report statistically significant but quite small earnings benefits from attending a more selective college; and a few studies report large effects. Analyzing two recent national longitudinal studies of college graduates, with models sensitive to selection bias, we find large earnings payoffs from attending a highly selective college both four and ten years after graduation. However, those returns are uneven: full-time working women graduates earn a lot less than their male counterparts from equivalent colleges, college majors pay differently, and family background also affects earnings over and above one’s college’s selectivity. Nevertheless, earnings differences attributable to college selectivity are striking.     

水库移民补偿与安置机制探析

水库移民难题的解决需要依靠补偿与安置机制的创新。水库移民补偿与安置长效机制破除了传统的移民补偿和安置机制把开发商和移民当作完全独立的利益团体．对移民补偿与安置采取一次性现金交易方式的思路,根据移民淹没损失与工程效益之间的内在联系,将淹没土地资源对移民所具有的基本收入保障的功能通过移民制度化地分享水利水电工程稳定的长期的收益得到替换。在移民基本收入得到保障的前提下。充分开发移民人力资源。最大限度地规避移民贫困风险的发生。     

Changing perceived importance of religion in mainland China, 1990–2012: An age-period- cohort analysis

The comprehensive social reform and relaxation of religious regulation in mainland China have encouraged scholars to propose a revival thesis of religion, predicting a rising prevalence of religious adherence in the Reform Era. This study extends the revival thesis by focusing attention on people's subjective religiosity, and investigates age, period, and cohort effects on the transition in perceived importance of religion from 1990 to 2012. Capitalizing on the repeated cross-sectional data of the China sample in the World Values Survey, this study shows that (1) The senior population, relative to the younger counterpart, attaches greater importance to religion. (2) The net period effect suggests that Chinese citizens' perceived importance of religion follows an upward trend by the early 2000s, but no significant growth is detected henceforward. (3) The cohorts who experienced the anti-religion Mao's Era in their adolescent life course stage have an evidently lower probability of viewing religion to be important, in relation to the cohorts of the Reform Era. Theoretical implications of the empirical age-period-cohort patterns for the religious economies theory and change of Chinese religious landscape are discussed.     

Incomplete equalization: The effect of tracking in secondary education on educational inequality

This paper tests whether the existence of vocationally oriented tracks within a traditionally academically oriented upper education system reduces socioeconomic inequalities in educational attainment. Based on a statistical model of educational transitions and data on two entire cohorts of Danish youth, we find that (1) the vocationally oriented tracks are less socially selective than the traditional academic track; (2) attending the vocationally oriented tracks has a negative effect on the likelihood of enrolling in higher education; and (3) in the aggregate the vocationally oriented tracks improve access to lower-tier higher education for low-SES students. These findings point to an interesting paradox in that tracking has adverse effects at the micro-level but equalizes educational opportunities at the macro-level. We also discuss whether similar mechanisms might exist in other educational systems.     

Racial differences in the effects of job contacts: Conflicting evidence from cross-sectional and longitudinal data

Recent research has argued that using job contacts to find work restricts the opportunities of Black workers. Although this makes sense in light of literature on urban poverty that contends that inner-city Blacks are isolated from effective job networks, this paper argues that there are two reasons why these findings may be misleading. First, the existence of discrimination in the labor market means that contacts may be an efficient method of job search for Black workers. Second, because the use of contacts may be an endogenous variable, we need to look at longitudinal data. In the analysis, I compare cross-sectional and longitudinal results on the relationship between contacts and wages. While the cross-sectional data indicate a negative relationship between contacts and wages, the longitudinal data suggest this merely reflects lower levels of opportunity among workers who use contacts rather than the effect of contacts per se.     

How beauty works. Theoretical mechanisms and two empirical applications on students' evaluation of teaching

Plenty of studies show that the physical appearance of a person affects a variety of outcomes in everyday life. However, due to an incomplete theoretical explication and empirical problems in disentangling different beauty effects, it is unclear which mechanisms are at work. To clarify how beauty works we present explanations from evolutionary theory and expectation states theory and show where both perspectives differ and where interlinkage appears promising. Using students' evaluations of teaching we find observational and experimental evidence for the different causal pathways of physical attractiveness. First, independent raters strongly agree over the physical attractiveness of a person. Second, attractive instructors receive better student ratings. Third, students attend classes of attractive instructors more frequently – even after controlling for teaching quality. Fourth, we find no evidence that attractiveness effects become stronger if rater and ratee are of the opposite sex. Finally, the beauty premium turns into a penalty if an attractive instructor falls short of students' expectations.     

When everyone goes to college: The causal effect of college expansion on earnings

In this study, we estimate the causal effect of college expansion on earnings using the example of South Korea in the 1990s where the college enrollment rate increased from just over thirty percent to over eighty percent over a fifteen years period. We compare the pre-expansion cohort and the post-expansion cohort in order to identify those who would attend college because of the expansion but would not attend otherwise (compliers). We, then, estimate compliers’ earnings gain from the college expansion relative to the earnings changes of two control groups: those who either would or would not go to college regardless of college expansion (always-takers and never-takers). We find a striking gendered pattern; for men, the earnings return to college expansion is moderate and mostly driven by the increasing skill price, whereas, for women, the return is significantly large even net of the skill price change.     

Partners’ relationship quality and childbearing

This study examines the influence of partner relationship quality on childbearing. We are innovative in using relationship quality reports from both partners, drawing on the first and second wave of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study. Thus, we can identify potential effects of discordant perceptions of the relationship on childbearing. We also pose a new hypothesis on the direction of the effect of relationship quality on fertility, predicting that medium levels of relationship quality result in the highest childbearing rates. Our results indicate that only women’s perceptions of relationship quality influence a first birth, whereas women’s and men’s perceptions affect second births. We do not find unique effects of disagreement in assessments of relationship quality; effects of partners’ perceptions are additive. Women reporting medium levels of relationship quality are most likely to have a(nother) child, whereas men with medium and high quality relationships are most likely to have a second child.     

Context,network, and adolescent perceived risk

Prior research has identified a list of individual attributes, along with neighborhood, school, and network characteristics, as potential factors affecting perceived risk. However, prior research has rarely investigated the simultaneous effects of these factors on perceived risk. This study uses the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (AddHealth), supplemented with the 1990 census data, to examine the associations of neighborhood, school, and network characteristics and perceived risk among adolescents. To account for the overlaps between school districts and neighborhoods, we use cross-classified multilevel modeling (CCMM). Our analyses lead to two main findings. First, perceived risk appears to be context-specific. Perceived risk at school is mostly affected by school characteristics but not by neighborhood characteristics. Perceived risk in neighborhood is mostly affected by neighborhood characteristics but not by school characteristics. Second, network characteristics matter for both types of perceived risk and more so for perceived risk at school than in neighborhood. We find that, while having more friends is associated with a lower level of perceived risk, having more friends with delinquent and violent behaviors is associated with a higher level of perceived risk among adolescents.