The Republicanization of evangelical Protestants in the United States: An examination of the sources of political realignment

Although the association between evangelical Protestant and Republican affiliations is now a fundamental aspect of American politics, this was not the case as recently as the early 1980s. Following work on secular political realignment and the issue evolution model of partisan change, I use four decades of repeated cross-sectional survey data to examine the dynamic correlates of evangelical Protestant and Republican affiliations, and how these factors promote changes in partisanship. Results show that evangelical Protestants have become relatively more likely to attend religious services and to oppose homosexuality, abortion, and welfare spending. Period-specific mediation models show that opposition to abortion, homosexuality, and welfare spending have become more robust predictors of Republican affiliation. By the twenty-first century, differences in Republican affiliation between evangelical Protestants and other religious affiliates are fully mediated by views of homosexuality, abortion, and welfare spending; and differences in Republican affiliation between evangelicals and the religiously unaffiliated are substantially mediated by views of homosexuality, abortion, welfare spending, and military spending. These results further understanding of rapid changes in politico-religious alignments and the increasing importance of moral and cultural issues in American politics, which supports a culture wars depiction of the contemporary political landscape.     

Gender and homosexuality attitudes across religious groups from the 1970s to 2014: Similarity,distinction, and adaptation

This study uses General Social Survey data to compare gender and homosexuality across American religious groups from the 1970s to 2014, examining three possible patterns for how evangelical attitudes relate to those of other groups: (1) they are similar; (2) they are different, but move together over time; (3) they are different and converge or diverge over time. Evangelical gender attitudes regarding work and family issues are more conservative than those of all other groups, but are adaptive to broad trends, changing at a rate similar to those of other groups. Evangelical attitudes toward the morality of homosexuality and same-sex marriage are more conservative than those of all other religious groups, and their rate of change is slower over time. Separate trends on the two issues suggest that gender and sexuality attitude change is decoupled, especially among evangelicals who are adapting more on gender while increasingly distinguishing themselves on same-sex relationships. A three-stage process of religious tension appears to characterize evangelical identity-building: (1) similarity, (2) distinction, and (3) adaptation.     

20世纪70年代以前法国移民政策的成功因素

20世纪70年代以前,以"共和同化模式"为特征的法国移民政策获得了极大成功。其主要因素是:法国以"自由"、"平等"为核心的公民政治文化,是法国移民政策成功的政治因素;外国移民的"欧洲特点",是法国移民政策成功的人种因素;统一的宗教信仰,是法国移民政策成功的宗教因素;二战后人道主义、人权思想的高扬而形成的宽容、人道、大度的国民心态,是法国移民政策成功的社会心理因素。     

Group size and secular endogamy among the religiously unaffiliated in Canada

High religious intermarriage among the religiously unaffiliated is usually interpreted as evidence of religion's minor importance for this group. Between 1981 and 2011, religious intermarriage among the unaffiliated in Canada declined from 38 percent to 21 percent, while the unaffiliated population tripled from 7 percent to 23 percent. This paper examines the role of demographic factors such as increased group size in decreased religious intermarriage among the unaffiliated. Using census and survey data, we estimate probit models of religious intermarriage for unaffiliated men and women. The models include individual and group-level characteristics. Results show that for both sexes, relative group size was the single largest contributor to decreased intermarriage. Increased group size allowed the expression of endogamous or within-group marital preferences among the unaffiliated. This secular endogamy, or preference for within-group marriage among the unaffiliated, represents an increasingly important form of religion-related marriage as the unaffiliated population grows.     

Conservative Protestantism and attitudes toward corporal punishment, 1986–2014

Research indicates that conservative Protestants are highly supportive of corporal punishment. Yet, Americans’ support for this practice has waned during the past several decades. This study aggregates repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Surveys (GSS) to consider three models that address whether attitudes toward spanking among conservative Protestants shifted relative to those of other Americans from 1986 to 2014. Although initial results reveal a growing gap between conservative Protestants and the broader American public, we find that average levels of support have remained most robust among less educated conservative Protestants, with some erosion among more highly educated conservative Protestants. Moreover, trends in variability suggest that conservative Protestants exhibit more cohesive support for this practice than do others. These results provide a window into the cultural contours of religious change and the social factors that facilitate such change.     

Race, crime, and Republican strength: Minority politics in the post-civil rights era

This investigation assesses the relationships between racial threat and partisan dominance in state legislatures with tests of interactive hypotheses. The findings show that historically contingent expectations derived from racial threat theory, Republican law and order campaign appeals, and fundamentalist strength account for Republican strength in the legislatures. Two-way fixed-effects estimates based on pooled time-series analyses of 799 state-years in the post-civil rights era show that the percentage of Republicans in the state legislatures grew after increases in African American presence and the violent crime rates. The combined effects of a growth in African American and fundamentalist populations also account for increased Republican seats in these bodies. Statements by Republican campaign officials on how they deliberately used mass resentments against minorities to gain votes provide evidence about the intervening links between minority threat, the menace posed by high violent crime rates, and increased Republican strength in the state legislatures.     

同姓联宗与地方自治——清末民国时期江西地方精英的文化策略

明清以来普遍出现的同姓联宗是中国历史上复杂的社会文化现象,从明清科举时代到清末民国地方自治时代,由地方精英推动和主持的同姓联宗活动经历了时代性的演变与发展,呈现出新的历史特点。这一变化与清末民国时期的政治变迁具有密切关系。清末民初以来,伴随着科举制度时代的结束和地方自治运动的兴起,活跃于地方政治舞台上的新式地方精英,在积极参与地方政治权力角逐和派系斗争的同时,广泛推动同姓宗族的联合,结成政治联盟和扩大社会基础,直接或间接、有形或无形地影响地方政治的发展进程。在这一过程中,同姓联宗作为地方精英操弄地方政治的一种策略和手段,显示出政治化的发展趋势和历史内涵,而地方政治的近代化进程也因深受同姓联宗这一传统社会组织关系的影响而更趋复杂、曲折。     

Scientific consensus,the law,and same sex parenting outcomes

While the US Supreme Court was considering two related cases involving the constitutionality of same-sex marriage, one major question informing that decision was whether scientific research had achieved consensus regarding how children of same-sex couples fare. Determining the extent of consensus has become a key aspect of how social science evidence and testimony is accepted by the courts. Here, we show how a method of analyzing temporal patterns in citation networks can be used to assess the state of social scientific literature as a means to inform just such a question. Patterns of clustering within these citation networks reveal whether and when consensus arises within a scientific field. We find that the literature on outcomes for children of same-sex parents is marked by scientific consensus that they experience “no differences” compared to children from other parental configurations.     

孔多塞与启蒙时代的妇女观

启蒙运动时期,知识分子就妇女本性、社会地位、教育以及婚姻和家庭等问题展开激烈争辩。孔多塞有力地介入到这场争论中。孔多塞是人权的有力倡导者和捍卫者,信奉自然权利学说,认为自然权利适用于所有人,指出妇女应当拥有与男子相同的权利,积极为妇女争取选举权、担任公职、平等受教育以及家庭和婚姻上的平等权利。他的女权思想是对妇女运动的巨大贡献。     

The stratification of military service and combat exposure, 1934-1994

Previous research has suggested that men who were exposed to combat during wartime differed from those who were not. Yet little is known about how selection into combat has changed over time. This paper estimates sequential logistic models using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine the stratification of military service and combat exposure in the US during the last six decades of the 20th century. It tests potentially overlapping hypotheses drawn from two competing theories, class bias and dual selection. It also tests a hypothesis, drawn from the life course perspective, that the processes by which people came to see combat have changed historically. The findings show that human capital, institutional screening, and class bias all determined who saw combat. They also show that, net of historical change in the odds of service and combat, the impact of only one background characteristic, race, changed over time.     

论李大钊的人权思想

李大钊的人权思想主要体现在五个方面:即世界各族联合组成联邦制国家;最大限度地实行言论自由,宗教信仰自由;国民的生命安全和生存条件应得到基本保障以及婚姻自由组成的家庭才是理想的家庭。     

Morality and politics: Comparing alternate theories

Debates about the American “culture wars” have led scholars to develop several theories relating morality to political attitudes and behaviors. However, researchers have not adequately compared these theories, nor have they examined the overall contribution of morality to explaining political variation. This study uses nationally representative data to compare the utility of 19 moral constructs from four research traditions – associated with the work of Hunter, Lakoff, Haidt, and Schwartz – for predicting political orientation (liberalism/conservatism). Results indicate that morality explains a third of the variation in political orientation – more than basic demographic and religious predictors – but that no one theory provides a fully adequate explanation of this phenomenon. Instead, political orientation is best predicted by selected moral constructs that are unique to each of the four traditions, and by two moral constructs that crosscut them. Future work should investigate how these moral constructs can be synthesized to create a more comprehensive theory of morality and politics.     

The effects of religious contextual norms, structural constraints, and personal religiosity on abortion decisions

Researchers have established that individual religiosity influences abortion attitudes, and that abortion attitudes, in turn, shape abortion restrictions and access. Less clear is whether religion and abortion structural constraints influence abortion decisions. This study examines the several individual, contextual, and structural factors that could shape the abortion decisions of women who conceive before marriage. Special attention is given to the importance of academic aspirations and structural constraints, in contrast to religious beliefs and county religious context, for making an abortion decision. Hierarchical modeling techniques and two waves of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) are employed. Neither generic religiosity nor conservative Protestant religious context appear to influence women’s abortion decisions. Conversely, young women’s abortion decisions are shaped by academic ambition, identification with a conservative Protestant denomination, proximity to an abortion clinic and the level of public abortion funding in their county of residence.     

Working to protect rights: Women's civil liberties in cross-cultural perspective

Using data for a majority of the world's countries over a 25- to 55-year period, this paper analyzes cross-cultural heterogeneity in women's civil liberties independently of and relative to men. Civil liberties include the freedoms of discussion and movement, freedom from forced labor, property rights, and access to justice. Regression analyses show that women's civil liberties vary considerably across cultural zones defined by the intersection of religious traditions and geographical regions. These patterns persist even when controlling for factors such as democracy and development. Accounting for women's political representation and educational attainment often reduces but never eliminates these cross-cultural differences; the same is true for embeddedness in world society. In contrast, women's labor force participation all but erases negative cultural effects, and instrumental-variables analyses suggest that this factor is a causal determinant of women's civil liberties. Efforts to improve women's rights should therefore focus on overcoming cultural barriers to their workforce participation.     

超越政权与政治文化内卷化：民国后期浙江省新昌县宗族上诉案例探析

以往学者在讨论民国时期乡村社会的失控时,把问题归结为政权内卷化与文化内卷化,皆认为当时乡村文化没有出现质的变化。不过,笔者在浙江省新昌县进行田野考察时发现民国后期当地出现了女性要求享受男子一样的宗族权利现象,这是史无前例的惊人变化,显示了宗族在受到各种力量的冲击与压制的同时有了新的发展,但是这种新文化的出现无法使得传统乡村政治获得新生。     

Explaining ethnic polarization over attitudes towards minority rights in Eastern Europe: A multilevel analysis

This paper examines divisions between majority and minority ethnic groups over attitudes towards minority rights in 13 East European societies. Using national sample surveys and multilevel models, we test the effectiveness of competing explanations of ethnic polarization in attitudes towards minority rights, as well as regional and cross-national differences in levels of polarization. We find that, at the individual level, indicators of ‘social distance’ (inter-marriage and social interaction) account most effectively for the extent of ethnic polarization. However, regional and cross-national variations in polarization between majority and minority groups are explained most effectively by cultural (linguistic and religious) differences. These findings accord with research in the West, indicating the importance of cultural differences as a source of ethnic polarization, while offering little support for theories focusing on economic and structural factors or the size of minority groups. They also suggest the likely sources of difficulties for democratic consolidation in ethnically divided post-communist societies.     

Religiosity and reactions to terrorism

Although many of the world’s most serious outbreaks of conflict and violence center on religion, social science research has had relatively little to say about religion’s unique role in shaping individuals’ attitudes about these events. In this paper we investigate whether Americans’ religious beliefs play a central role in shaping attitudes toward the continuing threat of terrorism and their willingness to assist officials in countering these perceived threats. Our analysis of an original data collection of almost 1600 Americans shows that more religious respondents are more likely to express concerns about terrorism. However, this relationship is mediated by their level of conservatism. We also find that more religious respondents are more likely to claim that they will assist government officials in countering terrorism. This relationship remained even after accounting for conservatism, and people’s general willingness to help police solve crimes like breaking and entering.     

Same-sex cohabiting elders versus different-sex cohabiting and married elders: Effects of relationship status and sex of partner on economic and health outcomes

In this article, I use pooled data from the 2008–2010 American Community Surveys to examine outcomes for different-sex married, different-sex cohabiting, and same-sex cohabiting elders across several key economic and health indicators, as well as other demographic characteristics. The findings suggest that elders in same-sex cohabiting partnerships differ from those in different-sex marriages and different-sex cohabiting relationships in terms of both financial and health outcomes, and that women in same-sex cohabiting partnerships fare worse than men or women in other couple types. The results indicate that financial implications related to the sex of one’s partner might be more predictive of economic and health outcomes in old age, rather than solely access to legal marriage. Nonetheless, findings suggest that individuals in same-sex cohabiting partnerships might experience worse outcomes in old age as a result of cumulative effects across the life course from both the sex of their partner (in the case of female couples) as well as their lack of access to benefits associated with marriage. Accordingly, these findings demonstrate that persons in same-sex cohabiting partnerships require unique policy considerations to address health and economic concerns in old age.     

Age, period, and cohort effects on religious activities and beliefs

Despite the theoretical emphasis on religious decline in modern societies, sociologists remain divided over trends in religious activity and belief that support or refute claims of religious decline. Much of this disagreement stems from the inability to distinguish between period and cohort effects when analyzing repeated cross-sectional survey data. I use the intrinsic estimator, a recently developed method of simultaneously estimating age, period, and cohort effects, to examine changes in Americans’ religious service attendance, prayer, belief in the afterlife, and biblical literalism. Results show that regular service attendance declines, predominantly across cohorts. There are also period- and cohort-based declines in biblical literalism and a cohort-based decline in prayer. Belief in the afterlife is relatively stable across periods and cohorts. These results provide mixed support for theories of religious decline, and they demonstrate the importance of differentiating between period and cohort effects on social change.     

Legislative responses to wrongful conviction: Do partisan principals and advocacy efforts influence state-level criminal justice policy?

The number of discovered wrongful criminal convictions (and resulting exonerations) has increased over the past decade. These cases erode public confidence in the criminal justice system and trust in the rule of law. Many states have adopted laws that aim to reduce system errors but no study has examined why some states appear more willing to provide due process protections against wrongful convictions than others. Findings from regression estimates suggest that states with a Republican controlled legislature or more Republican voters are less likely to pass these laws while the presence of advocacy organizations that are part of the ‘innocence movement’ make legislative change more likely. We thus identify important differences in the political and social context between U.S. states that influence the adoption of criminal justice policies.