Trends in Causes of Death in Low‐Mortality Countries: Implications for Mortality Projections

This study examines the potential role that information about trends in causes of death could have in improving projections of mortality in low‐mortality countries. The article first summarizes overall trends in mortality by cause since the middle of the twentieth century. Special attention is given to the crucial impact of the smoking epidemic on mortality and on cause‐of‐death patterns. The article then discusses the implications for projections and reaches two conclusions. First, mortality projections can be improved by taking into account the distorting effects of smoking. Mortality attributable to smoking has risen in the past but has now leveled off or declined, thus boosting improvements in life expectancy. Second, making cause‐specific projections is not likely to be helpful. Trends in specific medical causes of death have exhibited discontinuities in the past, and future trends are therefore difficult to predict.     

Structure of National Perceptions of Social Needs Across EU Countries

Back in 1975, the European Union (EU) Council of Ministers defined the poor as “individuals or families whose resources are so small as to exclude them from the minimum acceptable way of life of the Member State in which they live”. This widely quoted definition leaves room for discussion about what can be considered a “minimum acceptable way of life” in different countries and thus also whether national perceptions of minimum standards vary from one country to the next. The paper explores this latter issue by exploiting the first EU dataset allowing a comparative analysis of the items which citizens in the different Member States consider to be necessary for people to have an “acceptable” standard of living in the country where they live. It assesses the (in)variance of the structure of the perception of social needs between countries on the basis of an extension of the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method, and shows a high level of congruence between the 27 national patterns. An important consequence of this result is that it supports the approach which consists of measuring deprivation on the basis of a same set of (validated) items across all the Member States.     

欧盟国家的中国大陆新移民述论

1978年改革开放以来,中国大陆新移民大量涌入欧洲,尤其是欧盟国家（本文专指前欧盟15国）,形成了自中国人移民欧洲以来,人数最多、持续时间最长,分布最广泛的一次移民潮,显示出与以往欧洲的华侨华人移民不同的特点与规律。由于新移民的增加,给欧洲华侨华人社会注入了新的血液,成为欧洲华侨华人新的增长点。     

欧盟劳动力税收和救济金制度改革及其影响

欧洲传统的福利制度造成了贫困陷阱和财政陷阱的产生,为了增加劳动力供给和鼓励就业,欧盟对劳动力税收和救济金制度进行了全面的改革。欧盟主要针对失业保险制度和社会救济金政策、最低工资政策、提前退休制度、个人所得税和社会保险税减免政策以及对有孩子家庭的激励政策等方面进行了改革。对改革的成效分析可以清楚地看到改革对劳动力供给和需求所带来的影响和效果。     

The Epidemiologic Transition Revisited: Compositional Models for Causes of Death by Age and Sex

For decades, researchers have noted systematic shifts in cause‐of‐death patterns as mortality levels change. The notion of the “epidemiologic transition” has influenced thinking about the evolution of health in different societies and the response of the health system to these changes. This article re‐examines the epidemiologic transition in terms of empirical regularities in the cause composition of mortality by age and sex since 1950, and considers whether the theory of epidemiologic transition presents a durable framework for understanding more recent patterns. Age‐sex‐specific mortality rates from three broad cause groups are analyzed: Group 1 (communicable diseases, maternal and perinatal causes, and nutritional deficiencies); Group 2 (noncommunicable diseases); and Group 3 (injuries), using the most extensive international database on mortality by cause, including 1,576 country‐years of observation, and new statistical models for compositional data. The analyses relate changes in cause‐of‐death patterns to changing levels of all‐cause mortality and income per capita. The results confirm that declines in overall mortality are accompanied by systematic changes in the composition of causes in many age groups. These changes are most pronounced among children, for whom Group 1 causes decline as overall mortality falls, and in younger adults, where strikingly different patterns are found for men (shift from Group 3 to Group 2) compared to women (shift toward Group 2 then Group 3). The underlying patterns that emerge from this analysis offer insights into the epidemiologic transition from high‐mortality to low‐mortality settings.     

中国育龄期女性死因分析

育龄期女性的健康风险远远不只是与生殖和生育相关的风险。将人口统计数据和卫生统计数据相结合分析,发现1990-2000年间,育龄期女性人口死亡概率下降了1/4,主要死因为损伤和中毒、肿瘤、循环系统疾病。但这三种主要死因下降程度慢于其他死因的下降,反映了社会、文化、习俗等因素的改善滞后于经济发展和物质生活条件改善对育龄期女性健康的影响。同时,城乡育龄期女性人口存在不同的死因模式。     

Financial Situation and Its Consequences on the Quality of Life in the EU Countries

There is no agreement in social sciences on the relationship between the objective and subjective side of the quality of life. The survey of Eurobarometer 72.1 conducted in 2009 provided data on different subjective and objective indicators of financial situation. Correlation analyses revealed, that linkages between them were not strong. A great amount of study examined the connections between financial situation and overall feeling of happiness. This study found that the context of the questions influences the magnitude of the effects of material conditions on subjective well-being. The satisfaction with financial situation explained more than twice of the variance of happiness in the Euraboramoter sample—whose main topic was inequalities- than in the fifth wave of the World Values Surveys sample- whose questions were more diverse. Multiple regression analyses indicated that there are differences between countries in the magnitude of the effects of material conditions on subjective well-being. This effect is smaller in the more postmaterialist countries.     

The Transition to Self-Employment and Perceived Skill-Mismatches: Panel Data Evidence from Eleven EU Countries

Social Indicators Research - Some studies using either objective or subjective indicators, find that self-employed individuals are less likely to be or to report being skill-mismatched in...     

美欧失业率悬殊的成因分析

本文针对 90年代以来美欧失业率的悬殊 ,从非正式制度、劳动市场的制度法律框架、宏观经济政策和环境三个方面来解释造成这些悬殊的成因 ,并认为欧盟必须进行全方位的改革 ,才能切实降低失业率 ,成为世界经济中的重要一极     

生日即忌日现象的启示性研究 ——基于死因登记数据

本文对某地区连续13年的死因登记数据进行了分析与挖掘,旨在探寻出生日期的启示性,特别是出生日期与死亡日期的关系.统计分析结果表明,男女性中"生日即忌日"的比例明显偏高,最高诊断医院为县级(区)医院、 死因为癌症、 受教育水平为大学的这些人群生日当天死亡的比例均较高,超过除生日当天外平常一周比例的总和.利用随机森林算法寻找对这种现象影响严重的特征,结果显示最高诊断医院为影响最大的特征,其后依次为死因、 受教育程度、 最高诊断手段、 死亡地点、婚姻状况、 性别等.关联规则挖掘的结果也说明最高诊断医院对于"生日即忌日"的现象有重要影响.本文探寻了出生日期与死亡日期的关系,对于深入了解出生与死亡的内在联系有重要意义.     

Death Clustering,Mothers' Education and the Determinants of Child Mortality in Rural Punjab,India

In this paper the behavioural factors which make for continuing high levels of child mortality in rural Punjab, despite favourable conditions in terms of nutrition, income, women's literacy and health care facilities are examined. A major factor is that inadequate attention has been paid to improved health care practices within the home. Women's autonomy, social class, and mothers' education significantly influence child survival. One of the pathways by which mothers' education affects child survival is through improved child care. In this society, a woman's autonomy is lowest during that part of her life-cycle which also contains her peak childbearing years: this perverse overlap raises child mortality. The risk of dying is distributed very unevenly amongst children, as the majority of child deaths are clustered amongst a small proportion of the families. The death-clustering variable remained significant even after several possible biological and socio-economic reasons for clustering had been controlled. It is argued that this clustering of deaths is partly due to the poor basic abilities of some mothers and other carers.     

Cardiovascular and Tuberculosis Mortality: The Contrasting Effects of Changes in Two Causes of Death

Tuberculosis was the largest source of deaths among younger adults, and cardiovascular disease among older adults, in the America of 1900. Decreases in deaths from tuberculosis since 1900 and cardiovascular disease since 1940 explain most of the mortality drops in those age groups over the century. This article, building on previous work by White and Preston, shows the results of increased survival from these two causes on the US population structure. Standard demographic cause-specific mortality calculations are used to generate life tables without deaths from cardiovascular disease or tuberculosis. Then fixed rates for these diseases from early in the century are assumed while all other causes of death are allowed to change as they did historically. Improvements in cardiovascular mortality and tuberculosis produce some seemingly illogical contrasts. More people are alive today because of the decrease in tuberculosis. Yet more deaths from cardiovascular disease have been prevented, and cardiovascular improvements have raised life expectancy more. Lower tuberculosis mortality had virtually no effect on the average age of the population. Lower cardiovascular mortality alone has raised that average more than all twentieth-century causes of improved mortality combined.     

The (Non-) Effect of Unemployment Benefits: Variations in the Effect of Unemployment on Life-Satisfaction Between EU Countries

A negative effect of unemployment on subjective well-being has been demonstrated in many studies casting substantial doubt about assumptions of decisions of individuals to choose unemployment voluntarily as the utility-maximising option. These studies have been extended to take into account national-level context factors which have been shown to moderate the relationship between unemployment and life-satisfaction. So far most studies focussed mainly on economic indicators, although demographic and cultural differences between countries also affect how unemployment is perceived. An important variable that is not included in the majority of proper multilevel studies is the extent of unemployment benefits. Traditional micro-economic approaches argue that more extensive provisions should reduce the cost of unemployment and therefore reduce the motivation to regain employment—reflected in a reduction of the negative impact of unemployment. This study investigates this claim by using European Values Study data from all European Union countries and Norway as well as harmonised macroeconomic statistics from Eurostat. It finds that the effect of unemployment on life-satisfaction is indeed moderated by economic and demographic national-level factors, but not by unemployment benefits. To what extent unemployment reduces life-satisfaction varies greatly between countries, but appears to not be influenced by the extent of state unemployment provisions.     

Social Ills in Rich Countries: New Evidence on Levels,Causes, and Mediators

Social Indicators Research - The income inequality hypothesis claims that in rich societies inequality causes a range of health and social problems (henceforth: social ills), e.g. because economic...     

The Prospects of Catching up for New EU Members Lessons for the Accession Countries to the European Union from Previous Enlargements

With EU membership, politicians aswell as citizens in the accession countrieshope to achieve improvements in livingconditions and – at least in the long run –to catch up with the West European societies.Catch-up modernization of the less advancedmember states is also an ``official' goal of EUpolicy. Expert opinions about the prospects forsuccess, however, vary widely. In this paper, ageneral model for how EU policy influencesquality of life in less well-off membercountries is presented. An analysis of formerenlargements – the cohesion countries Ireland,Greece, Portugal, and Spain – reveals that EUintegration obviously facilitates processes ofcatch up but does not guarantee them. This isdemonstrated by using indicators coveringdifferent aspects of quality of life, percapita income (material living conditions),social protection ratios (general quality ofsociety), and life satisfaction (subjectivewell-being). Bearing in mind their particulareconomic and social conditions and theirheterogeneity, the prospects of the futuremember states are discussed.     

2000年前后世界各国所举行的人口普查

在公元2000年我国举行人口和住房普查的那年，世界上还有其他43个国家也举行了人口普查或是人口和住房普查。翌年中，另外又有71个国家举行了普查。在2000年前后这十年间(1995-2004)一共有209个国家或地区举行过或将要举行人口和住房普查，其中有26个国家举行二次普查，有21个没有或……     

年龄别死亡率数据异常的检验与讨论

由人口调查结果计算得到的年龄别死亡率 ,一般不能直接应用于人口研究中 ,还需要对原始数据进行检验和修匀。本文提出了用死亡率的差分来检验、判定调查死亡率异常的发生 ,并用它分析第五次人口普查中全国和各省区人口死亡率的数据质量 ,在此基础上 ,讨论了发生异常的原因。     

Infant Mortality by Cause of Death: Main and Interaction Effects

We examine infant mortality among the 1980-1982 live birth cohorts in the state of Florida, specific to five categories of underlying cause of death: infections, perinatal conditions, delivery complications, congenital malformations, and sudden infant death syndrome. The gross and net effects of eight categorical and continuous independent variables, along with 11 first-order interactions, are examined with microlevel data through the use of multinomial logit regression. Findings suggest the complexity of variable effects by cause of death and indicate the simultaneous importance of biological and social factors. It is important that the pattern of interactions suggests an overall dependence of infant life chances on social circumstances. It also suggests that these effects are attenuated for some variables and causes of death at lower birth weights, probably due to advances in health care organization, access, and technology.