我国妇女生育推迟与近期生育水平变化

随着我国时期生育水平的下降,我国妇女的平均生育年龄自20世纪90年代以来呈现上升的趋势。在这样的情况下,传统的时期总和生育率的估计受到进度效应的影响,人们从这一指标中难以对我国近期生育水平的变化形成正确的认识。本文利用多来源可靠数据,对我国近期的总和生育率以及去进度效应总和生育率进行了估计,发现去除进度效应影响后,生育水平的时期估计值有了大幅度上升,2007²012年的生育水平大约在1.7至1.8之间。研究进一步重构了19642012年的生育水平大约在1.7至1.8之间。研究进一步重构了1964¹985年出生队列的部分年龄别生育率,发现年轻队列的峰值年龄别生育率较低,但在较高年龄时会出现年龄别生育率相较之前队列升高的现象。文章进一步探讨了我国生育政策对于妇女生育行为的影响以及政策变动可能带来的时期生育率的变化。     

The Untold Story of 50 Years of Adolescent Fertility in West Africa: A Cohort Perspective on the Quantum,Timing, and Spacing of Adolescent Childbearing

Although recent studies examine overall fertility trends in West Africa, few using advanced demographic techniques focus on adolescents. This study explores long‐term patterns of adolescent childbearing in 12 West African countries using 51 Demographic and Health Surveys covering birth cohorts that span 54 years (1940–1994). We employ classic demographic measures as well as disaggregation by early‐ (10–14 years old), middle‐ (15–17), and late adolescence (18–19). Cohort‐based estimates of total adolescent births, parity progression ratios, and rapid repeat birth probabilities reveal little change over time. Most women begin childbearing in adolescence, the progression to additional adolescent births remains common, and the incidence of rapid repeat births is high. In recent cohorts, women exit adolescence with an average of between 0.4 (Ghana) to 1.3 (Niger) births. Contrary to common assumptions, it is women commencing motherhood in early‐ and middle‐, not later adolescence, who account for most West African adolescent fertility.     

Cambodia's Fertility Transition: The Dynamics of Contemporary Childbearing

Cambodia is undergoing a fertility transition, with the total fertility rate falling from 6.7 before 1970 to 3.0 in 2010. This study is the first to examine the contemporary context of childbearing in Cambodia and the drivers of this transition, analyzing the articulations of men and women and the rationales behind their fertility intentions and behavior. Findings are derived from 21 months of ethnographic fieldwork in urban and rural settings in Siem Reap. The article explains how patterns of reproduction are shaped by the specific context and social organization, the political economy, gender relations, and kinship system. In Cambodia, changes in employment conditions, agricultural systems, and living arrangements create new motivations that in turn affect fertility decisions. In post‐conflict Cambodia rationales related to lineage continuation and the effects of the Khmer Rouge period also emerge as important influences.     

Attitudes About Children and Fertility Limitation Behavior

The relationship between attitudes and individual behavior is at the core of virtually all demographic theories of fertility. This paper extends our understanding of fertility behavior by exploring how psychic costs of childbearing and contraceptive use, conceptualized as attitudes about children and contraception, are related to the transition from high fertility and little contraceptive use to lower fertility and wide spread contraceptive use. Using data from rural Nepal, I examine models of the relationship between multiple, setting-specific attitudes about children and contraception and the hazard of contraceptive use to limit childbearing. Specific attitude measures attempt to capture the relative value of children versus consumer goods, the religiously based value of children, and the acceptability of contraceptive use. Findings demonstrate that multiple measures of women’s attitudes about children and contraception were all independently related to their fertility limitation behavior.     

Educational Differences in Desired Family Size and Attitudes Toward Childbearing in Latina Women

Attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size influence women's reproductive choices. This may be especially true in the Latina culture, where motherhood and large families are valued highly. To determine whether these attitudes differ by educational status, Latina women in an OB/GYN clinic (N=351) completed a survey assessing attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size. Attitudes of women with and without a high school education were compared. Respondents without a high school education desired a mean of 3.1 children, while those with a high school education desired a mean of 2.7. Women without a high school education endorsed more attitudes favoring large families. Among women without a high school education, those who wished to have a son to carry on the family name tended to desire larger families. Results suggest that the desire for large families among Latina women with low education may result from traditional cultural attitudes.     

Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts

In the post-Recession era, U.S. fertility rates have continued to fall. It is unclear if these declines are driven by shifts in fertility goals or growing difficulty in achieving goals. In this paper, we construct synthetic cohorts of men and women to examine both cross-cohort and within-cohort changes in fertility goals using multiple cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth. Although more recent cohorts exhibit lower achieved fertility at younger ages than earlier cohorts at the same age, intended parity remains around two children, and intentions to remain childless rarely exceed 15 percent. There is weak evidence of a growing fertility gap in the early 30s, suggesting more recent cohorts will need considerable childbearing in the 30s and early 40s to “catch up” to earlier goals, yet low-parity women in their early 40s are decreasingly likely to have unfulfilled fertility desires or intentions to have children. Low-parity men in their early 40s, though, are increasingly likely to intend children. Declines in U.S. fertility thus seem to be largely driven not by changes in early-life fertility goals so much as either a decreasing likelihood of achieving earlier goals or, perhaps, shifts in the preferred timing of fertility that depress period measures.     

Mother-Child Relations and Adolescent Sexual Attitudes and Behavior

We hypothesize that children who are close to their parents are more likely to have attitudes and behavior that are consistent with their parents' values than children who are not close to their parents. Using data from a probability sample of 888 mother-child pairs of white women in the Detroit metropolitan area, we tested this hypothesis, using both mother's and child's attitudes toward premarital sexual intercourse and the child's report of whether he or she had engaged in premarital sexual intercourse. Unlike most previous work in this area, which has posited a direct association between the closeness of the mother-child relation and the child's attitudes and behavior, we found that the quality of the relation interacted with the mother's attitudes in its effects on the child's attitudes and behavior. Children with close relations with their mothers were more likely to hold attitudes and behave in a manner consistent with their mothers' own attitudes than children with more distant relations.     

Early Childbearing Patterns and Women's Labor Force Behavior in Later Life

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the consequences of early childbearing decisions for women's labor force activity in later life. Within a life course framework, women's early child-bearing activities may be linked to later life decisions. Women between ages 55 and 64 are evaluated from the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation. Two measures of early family roles are considered: total fertility (number of children ever born) and timing of first-birth (childless, prior to age 30, and 30+). Results provide some limited support that early childbearing roles do in fact have a long-term impact on the employment decisions of women. Women who delay childbearing are somewhat more likely to remain in the labor force during their later years whereas women who remain childless are more likely to have exited the labor force.     

千名育龄人群生育意愿的调查与分析

根据2002年8月在湖南省进行的一项育龄人群生育意愿调查,本文分析了人们生育意愿的一些变化特点,并就如何更加有力地引导人们生育意愿的健康变化提出一些建议。     

中国生育率地理波与先进生育文化的区域传播

我国生育率变动存在着一种有规律可循的地理波现象 ,这是发展的时空差异在生育上的表现。我国生育率变动大致可分 5大先发生地、5大扩散区域。以语言为代表的文化因素的同质性 ,有利于先进生育文化的迅速扩散。我国经济因素和文化因素对省区生育率差异作用的强度呈现两个“U”字型 ,即文化因素的正“U”字型曲线和经济因素的倒“U”字型曲线。现阶段我国区域文化的差异 ,已经成为地区生育水平发展不平衡的主要因素。     

Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?

In 2001, more than half of Europe's population lived in countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) at or below 1.3. Use of the adjusted TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney, which takes into account the effects of the ongoing fertility postponement, changes the European fertility map considerably. All 27 countries analyzed had adjusted TFRs in 1995–2000 above 1.4. Thus, the “lowest‐low” fertility in Europe may be interpreted as a temporary consequence of the increasing age at motherhood. However, substantial regional differences in fertility level across Europe persist even when the differential pace of fertility postponement is taken into account. The estimated adjusted TFRs in Europe (1.63) and in the 25‐member European Union (1.71) contrast with the TFR levels of 1.40 and 1.46, respectively. These seemingly small differences have vastly different implications in terms of the potential long‐term pace of population decline.     

吉林省已婚育龄流动妇女婚育状况分析

本文利用国家卫生和计划生育委员会组织的2012²014年吉林省流动人口动态监测抽样调查相关数据,选取已婚育龄流动妇女,对其婚育状况及其影响因素进行研究,以期为流动人口的管理和服务提供参考。结果表明,吉林省已婚育龄流动妇女初婚所占比例较高,选择在流入地结婚和生育的妇女的初婚和初育年龄延迟,地理通婚圈不断扩展。有71.2%的流动妇女生育子女个数为1个。流动妇女中婚前怀孕比例较高,其主要的影响因素为文化程度和初婚年份。     

独生子女比例、婚育意愿变动对未来政策生育率的影响

苏州市是我国计划生育政策执行得最早、最严格的地区之一,也是我国经济最为发达的地区之一.目前苏州市第一代独生子女大规模进入婚育年龄,使得政策生育率自然升高,同时经济的迅猛发展使得独生子女的婚姻观念发生深刻的变化.本文试探将婚育人口独生子女比例、婚育意愿等因素纳入预测模型,以期使得预测方法和结论更加准确.文章认为,未来15年苏州政策生育率上升0.415,而考虑婚育意愿后,现实的生育率上升仅0.23,终身生育率仍在1.5个以下,人口再生产将长期处于低生育水平.     

Social and Developmental Predictors of Optimism from Infancy to Early Adulthood

The positive effects of dispositional optimismon mental and physical health are welldocumented, but little is known about itsdevelopmental origins. The presentpopulation-based longitudinal study of youngadults (n = 8673) examined predictors ofoptimism that were related to early childhoodfamily conditions, school achievementin middle childhood, education, and work statusin early adulthood. As theoreticalstarting points, previous research on otherrelated positive psychological constructs,previous research on depression, and life spanresearch were used. The results showedthat the wantedness of the child, the father'ssocioeconomic status and changes in it,school achievement, vocational education andwork history predicted significantlyoptimism at 31 years. A good financialsituation and being married were stronglyassociated with optimism at 31 years.     

Fertility Differentials In Early Postwar Malaya

During theearlypostwar years up to1957, the three main races in Malaya-Malays, Chinese, and Indians-experienced some differences in their levels of fertility. The lowest fertility was recorded among the Malays, with Chinese and Indian fertility about 5 percent and 10 percent higher, respectively. The comparatively low fertility of the Malays was owing to the exceptionally high rate of divorce, which meant unstable marriages and shorter periods of exposure to the risk of childbearing.A fairly well-defined pattern of state differences in fertility levels is found to exist in Malaya. Briefly, fertility was on the high side in the northern states of Johore, Malacca, and Negri Sembilan, and on the low side in the northern states of Penanq, Kelantan, Perlis, Kedah, and Trengganu, with the central states of Perak, Selangor, and Pahang in the intermediate position.The usual rural-urban fertility differentials are seen to prevail in Malaya as a whole and in the smaller units at state levels. Finally, the three main races registered higher fertility in rural areas, and the greatest gap between rural and urban rates prevailed among the Chinese.     

一孩与二孩家庭育龄妇女生育意愿比较

基于江苏苏南某农村790户家庭的抽样调查数据,比较一孩与二孩家庭育龄妇女的生育意愿,并运用回归模型对影响两类家庭育龄妇女生育意愿的因素进行研究。结果显示,两类家庭育龄妇女的意愿生育数量、意愿生育性别和意愿生育间隔没有显著差异,仅在对"女性生育的最大年龄"的认识上二孩妇女明显低于一孩妇女。但两类家庭育龄妇女在生育意愿的影响因素上存在着较大的差异。     

The Effect of Childhood Family Size on Fertility in Adulthood: New Evidence From IV Estimation

Although fertility is positively correlated across generations, the causal effect of children’s experience with larger sibships on their own fertility in adulthood is poorly understood. With the sex composition of the two firstborn children as an instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of sibship size on adult fertility using high-quality data from Norwegian administrative registers. Our study sample is all firstborns or second-borns during the 1960s in Norwegian families with at least two children (approximately 110,000 men and 104,000 women). An additional sibling has a positive effect on male fertility, mainly causing them to have three children themselves, but has a negative effect on female fertility at the same margin. Investigation into mediators reveals that mothers of girls shift relatively less time from market to family work when an additional child is born. We speculate that this scarcity in parents’ time makes girls aware of the strains of life in large families, leading them to limit their own number of children in adulthood.