Managing Migration: The Role of Economic Instruments

This paper reviews economic policies and instruments available to the developed countries to reduce unwanted migration from developing countries, not all of which is irregular migration. Countries generally welcome legal immigrants and visitors, try to make it unnecessary for people to become refugees and asylum seekers, and try to discourage, detect, and remove irregular foreigners. There are three major themes: 1. There are as many reasons for migration as there are migrants, and the distinction between migrants motivated by economic and non–economic considerations is often blurred. Perhaps the best analogy is to a river – what begins as one channel that can be managed with a dam can become a series of rivulets forming a delta, making migration far more difficult to manage. 2. The keys to reducing unwanted migration lie mostly in emigration countries, but trade and investment fostered by immigration countries can accelerate economic and job growth in both emigration and immigration countries, and make trading in goods a substitute for economically motivated migration. Trade and economic integration had the effect of slowing emigration from Europe to the Americas, between southern Europe and northern Europe, and in Asian Tiger countries such as South Korea and Malaysia. However, the process of moving toward freer trade and economic integration can also increase migration in the short term, producing a migration hump, and requiring cooperation between emigration and immigration destinations so that the threat of more migration does not slow economic integration and growth. 3. Aid, intervention, and remittances can help reduce unwanted migration, but experience shows that there are no assurances that such aid, intervention, and remittances would, in fact, lead migrants to stay at home. The better use of remittances to promote development, which at US$65 billion in 1999 exceeded the US$56 billion in official development assistance (ODA), is a promising area for cooperation between migrants and their areas of origin, as well as emigration and immigration countries. There are two ways that differences between countries can be narrowed: migration alone in a world without free trade, or migration and trade in an open economy. Migration will eventually diminish in both cases, but there is an important difference between reducing migration pressures in a closed or open world economy. In a closed economy, economic differences can narrow as wages fall in the immigration country, a sure recipe for an anti–immigrant backlash. By contrast, in an open economy, economic differences can be narrowed as wages rise faster in the emigration country. Areas for additional research and exploration of policy options include: (1) how to phase in freer trade, investment, and economic integration to minimize unwanted migration; (2) strategies to increase the job–creating impacts of remittances, perhaps by using aid to match remittances that are invested in job–creating ways.     

The Role of Psychological Instruments in the Assessment of Child Sexual Abuse

Psychological instruments such as behavioural rating scales or psychometric tests have a useful part to play in the evaluation of child sexual abuse, not as screening (i.e. ‘diagnostic’) devices but primarily as adjuncts to the assessment interview. However, the use of formal psychological instruments in their own right (i.e. on their own) for such purposes is, as yet, very limited and problematic. In their strictly adjunctive role they may provide additional evidence and/or indicate areas for further investigation, without directly questioning the child about the abuse and without being intrusive and leading. Finally, they may help us to assess and measure psychological processes that are influenced by, and thus secondary to, sexual abuse. This paper seeks to review the different types of psychological instruments and to comment on their clinical and their research usage.     

Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?

By building on the Hamilton (1989) Markov switching model, we examine questions like: Does monetary policy have the same effect in expansions and recessions? Given that the economy is currently in a recession, does a fall in interest rates increase the probability of an expansion? Does monetary policy have an incremental effect on the growth rate within a given state, or does it only affect the economy if it is sufficiently strong to induce a state change (e.g., from recession to expansion)? As suggested by models with sticky prices or finance constraints, interest rate changes have larger effects during recessions.     

Production Inflexibilities and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy

This article shows how the existence of production inflexibilities in the form of capacity utilization constraints conditions the magnitude of the response of macroeconomic variables to a money supply stimulus. Capacity is modeled under explicit microfoundations, where the existence of idiosyncratic demand uncertainty generates variable utilization rates across firms. In this context, money has real effects due to non-Fisherian effects stemming from limitations in households' access to the financial market. Firms' capacity constraints generate a convex aggregate supply curve, which is a feature of the economy that has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.     

Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Pakistani Market

Objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of monetary policy announcements on stock returns. Event window of 31 days and an estimation window of 250 days was constructed. ARIMA model is applied to calculate the estimated returns from estimation window (t ? 250). Abnormal returns were calculated by taking the difference between actual and estimated returns. Then abnormal returns were aggregated as cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). CAR at 30% showed an impact of monetary policy announcements on stock returns. Null hypothesis of zero abnormal returns was rejected since the results were found in critical region under normal distribution. Further, we decomposed the interest rate into expected and un-expected to analyze their impact on stock returns. After checking for stationarity, Engle–Granger co-integration test were applied to check long run relationship between interest rates and stock return. A significant effect of interest rates (expected and un-expected) was observed in the short run. These results are in line with Kuttner’s (J Monet Econ 47:523–544, 2001), Bernanke and Kuttner’s (J Financ 60:1221–1257, 2005), Bredin et al.’s (US stock returns the impact of domestic monetary policy shocks, http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp0604.pdf, 2007) and Ehrmann and Fratzscher’s (Equal size, equal role? Interest rate interdependence between the Euro Area and the United States, European Central Bank Working Paper 342, 2004). The study finds evidence of LR relationship between un-expected interest rates and whereas expected interest rates and stock returns have short term relationship.     

On Collision Course : The European Central Bank,Monetary Policy,and the Nordic Welfare Model

The question addressed in this paper is whether a particular discursive construction of globalization sets the boundaries for what is politically feasible within the EU. To answer this question, the macroeconomic policies of the European Monetary and Economic Union with its rigid emphasis on price stability are analysed in the context of the Nordic promise to preserve the present level of social programmes. What makes this 'puzzle' so interesting is that for the first time a large section of women voters hold the key to joining EMU. The analysis differs frommanyother feminist approaches to EMUand equal opportunity policy in that it combines a constructivist understanding of EMU with feminist political economy. The paper concludes that the Nordic promise to its female constituency to safeguard the present socialandemployment system cannot be sustained within the context of the restrictive monetary regime institutionalized by EMU. Feminist economists are calling for a 'transformative' approach to macroeconomics arguing that democratizing the process of macroeconomic policy making is a crucial element in changing the fundamental assumptions of the present neo-liberal policies and provides an alternative that would lead to a more gender-democratic Europe.     

Monetary Policy and the U.S. Stock Market

What is the influence of stock market valuations on monetary policy? We use a forward‐looking Taylor rule model to examine if monetary policy since the 19 October 1987 stock market crash has been influenced by the valuation of the stock market. We estimate the model using revised and real‐time data and find no empirical evidence that the Federal Reserve policy attempted to moderate stock market valuations during the late 1990s despite the “irrational exuberance” comments by Chairman Greenspan. Actually, the empirical evidence suggests that the Fed accommodated the high valuations of the stock market during this period.     

The Opportunities for Adopting Inflation Targeting in Tunisia: a Cointegration Study and Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy

The major aim of this paper is to analyze, at a first stage, the trend of inflation in Tunisia, then to conduct an overview of inflation measures and, to develop a simple inflation forecasting by applying the Box and Jenkins (Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden day, San Francisco, 1976) method. It is essential to understand the dynamics of the core and global inflation, and to explore the relationships that may undermine cointegration inflation via the Engle and Granger (Econometrica 55:251–276, 1987) and Johansen (J Econ Dyn Control 12:231–254, 1988) methods on control variables during a recent monthly period, ranging from 1996 to 2006. Concerning the Tunisian case, and by retracing the similar study conducted by Ndiyae and Badji (Les déterminants de l’inflation au Sénégal: Approche par les fonctions de consommations, Agence nationale de la statistique et de la méthodologie, 2008), the results have shown the existence of just a single cointegration relationship between the variables concerning a short term and long-term dynamics. Moreover, within the same spirit, a structural analysis based on structural VAR of Blanchard and Quah (Am Econ Rev 79:655–673, 1989) method has managed to identify the shocks impact on the supply and demand variables on the consumer prices index through the study of transmission channels of monetary policy. The outcomes have exposed that the relatively low impact degree of control variables on inflation in Tunisia is consistent with those carried out by Gupta and Komen (Time aggregation and the contradictions with causal relationships: can economic theory come to the rescue? 2008).     

Assessing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in a Small Open Economy: the Case Republic of Macedonia

The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in a small open transition economies: the case the Republic of Macedonia. This paper employs SVAR methodology to examine jointly the impact monetary and fiscal policy on real GDP and prices. The result reveals that the monetary policy counteracts the effects of fiscal policy and persists until the effects of fiscal policy changes disappear. This causes a crowding out effect. In addition, the result shows that the best fiscal policy for stimulating the economy appears to be one of tax-cuts. The empirical research, in jointly analyzing fiscal and monetary policy also provides an additional, possibly interesting result. The sizes of the responses of real GDP and prices to monetary shock are not significantly reduced when fiscal shock is included into monetary SVAR.     

How To Prepare the EU Integration: Banking System, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate in Macedonia

The significant progress in the reform of the financial sector, including the amendments to the banking law and the reinforcement of the deposit insurance scheme, has been reflected in increased confidence in the Macedonia banking sector. Monetary policy and exchange rates represent a crucial aspect for the countries of Southeast Europe which would like to position themselves on the threshold of negotiations on their accession to the European Union. In the case of Macedonia, which has already formally applied for EU membership, a very cautious approach has to be taken in order to facilitate the stability of the economic system as a whole. Such a policy will make an important contribution to the stabilization of the whole West Balkan area and in particular to the quadrangle of Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia. The preparation of a favourable ground for EU membership negotiations leads first and foremost through a strict monetary and exchange rate policy, which the National Bank is pursuing firmly. Macedonia is now facing optimal conditions for creating the prerequisites for a faster negotiation with less rigorous internal repercussions of the pre-adhesion period. One should not forget the indirect impact of the shadow economy in the general context of efficiency of the instruments of economic and monetary policy. Finally, there is the question to be answered on the interrelation existing between transmission mechanisms linking productivity to the real exchange rate in Macedonia. At first glance, the stylized facts – low labor productivity growth and a trend of real depreciation – could even suggest that a Balassa–Samuelson effect is in play. But the depreciation of the real exchange rate could reflect mainly the behaviour of prices in the tradable sector and a prolonged transition associated with slow technological growth and the low quality of the country's tradable-goods basket.     

The Role of Managers in Critical Incident Stress Management Programmes: A Qualitative Study of New Zealand Social Workers

This paper reports part of a larger exploratory research study of social workers' preferred models of critical incident stress management and experiences of critical incident stress debriefing. Social workers were invited to contribute to the research through an advertisement in the national association's newsletter for Aotearoa New Zealand Association of Social Workers. Using a qualitative methodology involving in-depth interviews with 13 social workers, participants were asked about their experiences of critical events encountered within their workplaces over the last five years. Interviews were recorded by audiotape with consent and analysed using thematic analysis. Four main themes emerged: the importance of preparation for critical incidents, the role of relationship between line managers and social workers, specifically the line manager's support immediately after the critical incident, and the availability of peer/colleague networks. An unexpected finding was that social workers interviewed noted that the pre-existing relationship with the line manager influenced their experience of the debriefing process itself. The more engaged and emotionally aware the manager was seen, the more the social worker claimed the debriefing process had been successful from their perspectives. The implications for social workers and their employing agencies are discussed.     

The Role of Nonprofit Advocacy Organizations in Australian Democracy and Policy Governance

Australia, like many Western liberal democracies, has experienced an unprecedented shift toward market driven policy governance in the past decade, influenced heavily by the demands of globalization but also the dominance of conservative ideas of liberal democracy and market oriented neoliberalism. In this context nonprofit advocacy organizations (NPAOs) have not only been subject to criticism and a reduction in governmental support, but have had their legitimacy challenged and questioned. This paper responds to an audible, visible, and highly contestable critique of NPAOs by exploring their contemporary place and role in Australian democracy. This discussion relies on a review of some key ideas and theories of liberal democracy and an overview of the current Australian context in which NPAOs operate, particularly in regard to their participation in policy governance. A key observation about how integral NPAOs are to ensure an active and open democracy, challenges the current directions of Australian governance and suggests a need for reflection on what actually constitutes a fully functioning democracy that fits the demands of the twenty-first century.

Drivers of Change in the Democratic Republic of Congo: The Role of China in Re-Shaping the Country

Africa has always been potentially one of the richest continents in the world, but, due to a series of causes (colonization and decolonization process, wars, dictatorships etc.) it has never reached its full potential. The fight against poverty has been carried out by different institutions at the multilateral and bilateral level during the last 30 years, but the route toward economic development seems to be still long for African countries. This paper will focus on the analysis of the new approach to international cooperation introduced by the People’s Republic of China in order to exchange rights of exploitation of Africa’s mining and natural resources with large amounts of capital without any conditionality. The case-study which will be considered is the agreement concluded between the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic Republic of Congo.