Bayesian selection of log-linear models

A general methodology is presented for finding suitable Poisson log-linear models with applications to multiway contingency tables. Mixtures of multivariate normal distributions are used to model prior opinion when a subset of the regression vector is believed to be nonzero. This prior distribution is studied for two- and three-way contingency tables, in which the regression coefficients are interpretable in terms of odds ratios in the table. Efficient and accurate schemes are proposed for calculating the posterior model probabilities. The methods are illustrated for a large number of two-way simulated tables and for two three-way tables. These methods appear to be useful in selecting the best log-linear model and in estimating parameters of interest that reflect uncertainty in the true model.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for the negative multinomial log-linear model

A log-linear model is defined for multiway contingency tables with negative multinomial frequency counts. The maximum likelihood estimator of the model parameters and the estimator covariance matrix is given. The likelihood ratio test for the general log-linear hypothesis also is presented.     

Multivariate Birnbaum–Saunders regression model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate log-linear Birnbaum–Saunders regression model. We discuss maximum-likelihood estimation of the model parameters and provide closed-form expressions for the score function and for Fisher's information matrix. Hypothesis testing is performed using approximations obtained from the asymptotic normality of the maximum-likelihood estimator. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and generalized leverage are discussed and the normal curvatures for studying local influence are derived under some perturbation schemes. Further, a test for the homogeneity of the shape parameter of the multivariate regression model is investigated. A real data set is presented for illustrative purposes.     

Testing non-nested log-linear models with pseudo estimator

As the number of random variables for the categorical data increases, the possible number of log-linear models which can be fitted to the data increases rapidly, so that various model selection methods are developed. However, we often found that some models chosen by different selection criteria do not coincide. In this paper, we propose a comparison method to test the final models which are non-nested. The statistic of Cox (1961, 1962) is applied to log-linear models for testing non-nested models, and the Kullback-Leibler measure of closeness (Pesaran 1987) is explored. In log-linear models, pseudo estimators for the expectation and the variance of Cox's statistic are not only derived but also shown to be consistent estimators.     

Bayesian inference for Poisson and multinomial log-linear models

Categorical data frequently arise in applications in the Social Sciences. In such applications, the class of log-linear models, based on either a Poisson or (product) multinomial response distribution, is a flexible model class for inference and prediction. In this paper we consider the Bayesian analysis of both Poisson and multinomial log-linear models. It is often convenient to model multinomial or product multinomial data as observations of independent Poisson variables. For multinomial data, Lindley (1964) [20] showed that this approach leads to valid Bayesian posterior inferences when the prior density for the Poisson cell means factorises in a particular way. We develop this result to provide a general framework for the analysis of multinomial or product multinomial data using a Poisson log-linear model. Valid finite population inferences are also available, which can be particularly important in modelling social data. We then focus particular attention on multivariate normal prior distributions for the log-linear model parameters. Here, an improper prior distribution for certain Poisson model parameters is required for valid multinomial analysis, and we derive conditions under which the resulting posterior distribution is proper. We also consider the construction of prior distributions across models, and for model parameters, when uncertainty exists about the appropriate form of the model. We present classes of Poisson and multinomial models, invariant under certain natural groups of permutations of the cells. We demonstrate that, if prior belief concerning the model parameters is also invariant, as is the case in a ‘reference’ analysis, then the choice of prior distribution is considerably restricted. The analysis of multivariate categorical data in the form of a contingency table is considered in detail. We illustrate the methods with two examples.     

A class of log-linear models with constrained marginal distributions

Summary In the log-linear model for bivariate probability functions the conditional and joint probabilities have a simple form. This property make the log-linear parametrization useful when modeling these probabilities is the focus of the investigation. On the contrary, in the log-linear representation of bivariate probability functions, the marginal probabilities have a complex form. So the log-linear models are not useful when the marginal probabilities are of particular interest. In this paper the previous statements are discussed and a model obtained from the log-linear one by imposing suitable constraints on the marginal probabilities is introduced. This work was supported by a M.U.R.S.T. grant.     

Log-linear model analysis of the semi-symmetric intraclass contingency table

This paper addresses the problem of analyzing a three-way contingency table that is upper-triangular, and a priori symmetric within layers. The log-linear model is modified to handle this kind of table, and maximum likelihood estimation is carried out for the modified log-linear model. This leads to an expression of the maximum likelihood estimates exclusively in terms of the observed cell counts. It is skin this analysis is equivalent to an application of the gone log-linear model to an artificially complete table, obtain. by splitting the off-diagonal cells in half within layers. This analysis is used in analyzing the results of a study done to determine the effect of the sex-linked dwarfing gene in male chickens on resistance to E. coli infection; the conclusion differs from that of a previous analysis of the same data (see Norwood and Hinkelmann 1978). It is found, in fact, that the structure of association among the two allele variables and the disease variable is somewhat more complex than previously proposed. A second example is taken from Ishii (1960). Finally, collapsibility conditions for the modified log-linear model, as well as various other sampling plans and limitations to the testing procedure, are discussed.     

A Bayesian Approach for Zero-Inflated Count Regression Models by Using the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method and an Application

In this study, estimation of the parameters of the zero-inflated count regression models and computations of posterior model probabilities of the log-linear models defined for each zero-inflated count regression models are investigated from the Bayesian point of view. In addition, determinations of the most suitable log-linear and regression models are investigated. It is known that zero-inflated count regression models cover zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial, and zero-inflated generalized Poisson regression models. The classical approach has some problematic points but the Bayesian approach does not have similar flaws. This work points out the reasons for using the Bayesian approach. It also lists advantages and disadvantages of the classical and Bayesian approaches. As an application, a zoological data set, including structural and sampling zeros, is used in the presence of extra zeros. In this work, it is observed that fitting a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model creates no problems at all, even though it is known that fitting a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model is the most problematic procedure in the classical approach. Additionally, it is found that the best fitting model is the log-linear model under the negative binomial regression model, which does not include three-way interactions of factors.     

On bayes-type estimators of linearly or log-linearly constrained multinomial cell probabilities

Two Bayes-type procedures for estimating a multinomial cell probabilities vector, P, in the presence of linear constraints on the parameters are proposed and illustrated by examples from contingency table analysis. Estimation under log-linear constraints is also considered.     

A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Expected Cell Counts by Using Log-Linear Models

ABSTRACT

In this article, Bayesian estimation of the expected cell counts for log-linear models is considered. The prior specified for log-linear parameters is used to determine a prior for expected cell counts, by means of the family and parameters of prior distributions. This approach is more cost-effective than working directly with cell counts because converting prior information into a prior distribution on the log-linear parameters is easier than that of on the expected cell counts. While proceeding from the prior on log-linear parameters to the prior of the expected cell counts, we faced with a singularity problem of variance matrix of the prior distribution, and added a new precision parameter to solve the problem. A numerical example is also given to illustrate the usage of the new parameter.     

Modelling the effect of subject-specific covariates in paired comparison studies with an application to university rankings

Preference decisions will usually depend on the characteristics of both the judges and the objects being judged. In the analysis of paired comparison data concerning European universities and students' characteristics, it is demonstrated how to incorporate subject-specific information into Bradley–Terry-type models. Using this information it is shown that preferences for universities and therefore university rankings are dramatically different for different groups of students. A log-linear representation of a generalized Bradley–Terry model is specified which allows simultaneous modelling of subject- and object-specific covariates and interactions between them. A further advantage of this approach is that standard software for fitting log-linear models, such as GLIM, can be used.     

Small area estimates for cross-classifications

Summary.  We develop a class of log-linear structural models that is suited to estimation of small area cross-classified counts based on survey data. This allows us to account for various associ- ation structures within the data and includes as a special case the restricted log-linear model underlying structure preserving estimation. The effect of survey design can be incorporated into estimation through the specification of an unbiased direct estimator and its associated covariance structure. We illustrate our approach by applying it to estimation of small area labour force characteristics in Norway.     

Approaches to regression analysis with multiple measurements from individual sampling units

Application of ordinary least-squares regression to data sets which contain multiple measurements from individual sampling units produces an unbiased estimator of the parameters but a biased estimator of the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates. The present work considers a random coefficient, linear model to deal with such data sets: this model permits many senses in which multiple measurements are taken from a sampling unit, not just when it is measured at several times. Three procedures to estimate the covariance matrix of the error term of the model are considered. Given these, three procedures to estimate the parameters of the model and their covariance matrix are considered; these are ordinary least-squares, generalized least-squares, and an adjusted ordinary least-squares procedure which produces an unbiased estimator of the covariance matrix of the parameters with small samples. These various procedures are compared in simulation studies using three examples from the biological literature. The possibility of testing hypotheses about the vector of parameters is also considered. It is found that all three procedures for regression estimation produce estimators of the parameters with bias of no practical consequence, Both generalized least-squares and adjusted ordinary least-squares generally produce estimators of the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates with bias of no practical consequence, while ordinary least-squares produces a negatively biased estimator. Neither ordinary nor generalized least-squares provide satisfactory hypothesis tests of the vector of parameter estimates. It is concluded that adjusted ordinary least-squares, when applied with either of two of the procedures used to estimate the error coveriance matrix, shows promise for practical application with data sets of the nature considered here.     

Estimation of principal points for a multivariate binary distribution using a log-linear model

This article proposes a method for estimating principal points for a multivariate binary distribution, assuming a log-linear model for the distribution. Through numerical simulation studies, the proposed parametric estimation method using a log-linear model is compared with a nonparametric estimation method.     

Semiparametric multiparameter regression survival modeling

We consider a log-linear model for survival data, where both the location and scale parameters depend on covariates, and the baseline hazard function is completely unspecified. This model provides the flexibility needed to capture many interesting features of survival data at a relatively low cost in model complexity. Estimation procedures are developed, and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are derived using empirical process theory. Finally, a resampling procedure is developed to estimate the limiting variances of the estimators. The finite sample properties of the estimators are investigated by way of a simulation study, and a practical application to lung cancer data is illustrated.     

On the Relation between Edge and Vertex Modelling in Shape Analysis

Objects in the plane with no obvious landmarks can be described by either vertex transformation vectors or edge transformation vectors. In this paper we provide the relation between the two transformation vectors. Grenander & Miller (1994 ) use a multivariate normal distribution with a block circulant covariance matrix to model the edge transformation vector. This type of model is also feasible for the vertex transformation vector and in certain cases the free parameters of the two models match up in a simple way. A vertex model and an edge model are applied to a data set of sand particles to explore shape variability.     

A semiparametric approach for modelling multivariate nonlinear time series

In this article, a semiparametric time‐varying nonlinear vector autoregressive (NVAR) model is proposed to model nonlinear vector time series data. We consider a combination of parametric and nonparametric estimation approaches to estimate the NVAR function for both independent and dependent errors. We use the multivariate Taylor series expansion of the link function up to the second order which has a parametric framework as a representation of the nonlinear vector regression function. After the unknown parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the obtained NVAR function is adjusted by a nonparametric diagonal matrix, where the proposed adjusted matrix is estimated by the nonparametric kernel estimator. The asymptotic consistency properties of the proposed estimators are established. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed semiparametric method. A real data example on short‐run interest rates and long‐run interest rates of United States Treasury securities is analyzed to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 668–687; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

A new look at the difference between the GEE and the GLMM when modeling longitudinal count responses

Poisson log-linear regression is a popular model for count responses. We examine two popular extensions of this model – the generalized estimating equations (GEE) and the generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) – to longitudinal data analysis and complement the existing literature on characterizing the relationship between the two dueling paradigms in this setting. Unlike linear regression, the GEE and the GLMM carry significant conceptual and practical implications when applied to modeling count data. Our findings shed additional light on the differences between the two classes of models when used for count data. Our considerations are demonstrated by both real study and simulated data.     

PREDICTION FOR EXPONENTIAL LIFETIMES BASED ON STEP-STRESS TESTING

ABSTRACT

This paper presents methods for constructing prediction limits for a step-stress model in accelerated life testing. An exponential life distribution with a mean that is a log-linear function of stress, and a cumulative exposure model are assumed. Two prediction problems are discussed. One concerns the prediction of the life at a design stress, and the other concerns the prediction of a future life during the step-stress testing. Both predictions require the knowledge of some model parameters. When estimates for the model parameters are available, a calibration method based on simulations is proposed for correcting the prediction intervals (regions) obtained by treating the parameter estimates as the true parameter values. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the prediction procedure.     

Classical multilevel and Bayesian approaches to population size estimation using multiple lists

One of the major objections to the standard multiple-recapture approach to population estimation is the assumption of homogeneity of individual 'capture' probabilities. Modelling individual capture heterogeneity is complicated by the fact that it shows up as a restricted form of interaction among lists in the contingency table cross-classifying list memberships for all individuals. Traditional log-linear modelling approaches to capture–recapture problems are well suited to modelling interactions among lists but ignore the special dependence structure that individual heterogeneity induces. A random-effects approach, based on the Rasch model from educational testing and introduced in this context by Darroch and co-workers and Agresti, provides one way to introduce the dependence resulting from heterogeneity into the log-linear model; however, previous efforts to combine the Rasch-like heterogeneity terms additively with the usual log-linear interaction terms suggest that a more flexible approach is required. In this paper we consider both classical multilevel approaches and fully Bayesian hierarchical approaches to modelling individual heterogeneity and list interactions. Our framework encompasses both the traditional log-linear approach and various elements from the full Rasch model. We compare these approaches on two examples, the first arising from an epidemiological study of a population of diabetics in Italy, and the second a study intended to assess the 'size' of the World Wide Web. We also explore extensions allowing for interactions between the Rasch and log-linear portions of the models in both the classical and the Bayesian contexts.