协整参数的自举推断

 针对完全修正最小二乘(full-modified ordinary least square,简称FMOLS）估计方法,给出一种协整参数的自举推断程序,证明零假设下自举统计量与检验统计量具有相同的渐近分布。关于检验功效的研究表明,虽然有约束自举的实际检验水平表现良好,但如果零假设不成立,自举统计量的分布是不确定的,因而其经验分布不能作为检验统计量精确分布的有效估计。实际应用中建议使用无约束自举,因为无论观测数据是否满足零假设,其自举统计量与零假设下检验统计量都具有相同的渐近分布。最后,利用蒙特卡洛模拟对自举推断和渐近推断的有限样本表现进行比较研究。     

Testing for linearity in Markov switching models: a bootstrap approach

Testing for linearity in the context of Markov switching models is complicated because standard regularity conditions for likelihood based inference are violated. In particular, under the null hypothesis of linearity, some parameters are not identified and scores are identically zero. Thus, the asymptotic distribution of the relevant test statistic does not possess the standard χ ²-distribution. A bootstrap resampling scheme to approximate the distribution of the relevant test statistic under the null of linearity is proposed. The procedure is relatively easy to program and computation requirements are reasonable. The performance of the bootstrap-based test is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that this test works well and outperforms the Hansen test and the Carrasco et al. test.     

Change-point analysis with bathtub shape for the exponential distribution

Likelihood ratio type test statistic and Schwarz information criterion statistics are proposed for detecting possible bathtub-shaped changes in the parameter in a sequence of exponential distributions. The asymptotic distribution of likelihood ratio type statistic under the null hypothesis and the testing procedure based on Schwarz information criterion are derived. Numerical critical values and powers of two methods are tabulated for certain selected values of the parameters. The tests are applied to detect the change points for the predator data and Stanford heart transplant data.     

An extension of Monte Carlo hypothesis tests

There are many hypothesis testing settings in which one can calculate a “reasonable” test statistic, but in which the null distribution of the statistic is unknown or completely intractable. Fortunately, in many such situations, it is possible to simulate values of the test statistic under the null hypothesis, in which case one can conduct a Monte Carlo test. A difficulty however arises in that Monte Carlo tests, as they are currently structured, are applicable only if ties cannot occur among the values of the test statistics. There is a frequently occurring scenario in which there are lots of ties, namely that in which the null distribution of the test statistic has a (single) point mass. It turns out that one can modify the current form of Monte Carlo tests so as to accommodate such settings. Developing this modification leads to an intriguing identity involving the binomial probability function and its derivatives. In this article, we will briefly explain the modified procedure, discuss simulation studies which demonstrate its efficacy, and provide a proof of the identity referred to above.     

A likelihood ratio test of quasi-independence for sparse two-way contingency tables

We consider a likelihood ratio test of independence for large two-way contingency tables having both structural (non-random) and sampling (random) zeros in many cells. The solution of this problem is not available using standard likelihood ratio tests. One way to bypass this problem is to remove the structural zeroes from the table and implement a test on the remaining cells which incorporate the randomness in the sampling zeros; the resulting test is a test of quasi-independence of the two categorical variables. This test is based only on the positive counts in the contingency table and is valid when there is at least one sampling (random) zero. The proposed (likelihood ratio) test is an alternative to the commonly used ad hoc procedures of converting the zero cells to positive ones by adding a small constant. One practical advantage of our procedure is that there is no need to know if a zero cell is structural zero or a sampling zero. We model the positive counts using a truncated multinomial distribution. In fact, we have two truncated multinomial distributions; one for the null hypothesis of independence and the other for the unrestricted parameter space. We use Monte Carlo methods to obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters and also the p-value of our proposed test. To obtain the sampling distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic, we use bootstrap methods. We discuss many examples, and also empirically compare the power function of the likelihood ratio test relative to those of some well-known test statistics.     

Testing variance components in balanced linear growth curve models

It is well known that the testing of zero variance components is a non-standard problem since the null hypothesis is on the boundary of the parameter space. The usual asymptotic chi-square distribution of the likelihood ratio and score statistics under the null does not necessarily hold because of this null hypothesis. To circumvent this difficulty in balanced linear growth curve models, we introduce an appropriate test statistic and suggest a permutation procedure to approximate its finite-sample distribution. The proposed test alleviates the necessity of any distributional assumptions for the random effects and errors and can easily be applied for testing multiple variance components. Our simulation studies show that the proposed test has Type I error rate close to the nominal level. The power of the proposed test is also compared with the likelihood ratio test in the simulations. An application on data from an orthodontic study is presented and discussed.     

Empirical phi-divergence test statistics for testing simple and composite null hypotheses

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce first a new family of empirical test statistics for testing a simple null hypothesis when the vector of parameters of interest is defined through a specific set of unbiased estimating functions. This family of test statistics is based on a distance between two probability vectors, with the first probability vector obtained by maximizing the empirical likelihood (EL) on the vector of parameters, and the second vector defined from the fixed vector of parameters under the simple null hypothesis. The distance considered for this purpose is the phi-divergence measure. The asymptotic distribution is then derived for this family of test statistics. The proposed methodology is illustrated through the well-known data of Newcomb's measurements on the passage time for light. A simulation study is carried out to compare its performance with that of the EL ratio test when confidence intervals are constructed based on the respective statistics for small sample sizes. The results suggest that the ‘empirical modified likelihood ratio test statistic’ provides a competitive alternative to the EL ratio test statistic, and is also more robust than the EL ratio test statistic in the presence of contamination in the data. Finally, we propose empirical phi-divergence test statistics for testing a composite null hypothesis and present some asymptotic as well as simulation results for evaluating the performance of these test procedures.     

Bootstrap Bartlett correction in inflated beta regression

The inflated beta regression model aims to enable the modeling of responses in the intervals (0, 1], [0, 1), or [0, 1]. In this model, hypothesis testing is often performed based on the likelihood ratio statistic. The critical values are obtained from asymptotic approximations, which may lead to distortions of size in small samples. In this sense, this article proposes the bootstrap Bartlett correction to the statistic of likelihood ratio in the inflated beta regression model. The proposed adjustment only requires a simple Monte Carlo simulation. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample performance (size and power) of the proposed corrected test is compared to the usual likelihood ratio test and the Skovgaard adjustment already proposed in the literature. The numerical results evidence that inference based on the proposed correction is much more reliable than that based on the usual likelihood ratio statistics and the Skovgaard adjustment. At the end of the work, an application to real data is also presented.     

A goodness-of-fit test for the stratified proportional hazards model for survival data

Abstract

Goodness-of-fit testing is addressed in the stratified proportional hazards model for survival data. A test statistic based on within-strata cumulative sums of martingale residuals over covariates is proposed and its asymptotic distribution is derived under the null hypothesis of model adequacy. A Monte Carlo procedure is proposed to approximate the critical value of the test. Simulation studies are conducted to examine finite-sample performance of the proposed statistic.     

Asymptotocally nonparametric tests with censored paired data

A class of asymptotically nonparametric test with contains a test proposed by Wei(1980), is considered for testing the equality of two continuous distribution funcitons when paired observations are subject to arbitrary right censorship. It is shown that under the null hypothesis each test statistic converges in distribution to the standard normal random variable. Furthermore. the Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that some tests in this class are more powerful than Wei's test. A generalization to incomplete censored paired data is also included.     

Testtesting for the equality of scale parameters of k(> 2) exponential populations based on complete and type ii censored samples

This paper is concerned with testing the equality of scale parameters of K(> 2) two-parameter exponential distributions in presence of unspecified location parameters based on complete and type II censored samples. We develop a marginal likelihood ratio statistic, a quadratic statistic (Qu) (Nelson, 1982) based on maximum marginal likelihood estimates of the scale parameters under the null and the alternative hypotheses, a C(a) statistic (CPL) (Neyman, 1959) based on the profile likelihood estimate of the scale parameter under the null hypothesis and an extremal scale parameter ratio statistic (ESP) (McCool, 1979). We show that the marginal likelihood ratio statistic is equivalent to the modified Bartlett test statistic. We use Bartlett's small sample correction to the marginal likelihood ratio statistic and call it the modified marginal likelihood ratio statistic (MLB). We then compare the four statistics, MLBi Qut CPL and ESP in terms of size and power by using Monte Carlo simulation experiments. For the variety of sample sizes and censoring combinations and nominal levels considered the statistic MLB holds nominal level most accurately and based on empirically calculated critical values, this statistic performs best or as good as others in most situations. Two examples are given.     

An extensive power evaluation of a novel two-sample density-based empirical likelihood ratio test for paired data with an application to a treatment study of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and severe mood dysregulation

In many case-control studies, it is common to utilize paired data when treatments are being evaluated. In this article, we propose and examine an efficient distribution-free test to compare two independent samples, where each is based on paired observations. We extend and modify the density-based empirical likelihood ratio test presented by Gurevich and Vexler [7] to formulate an appropriate parametric likelihood ratio test statistic corresponding to the hypothesis of our interest and then to approximate the test statistic nonparametrically. We conduct an extensive Monte Carlo study to evaluate the proposed test. The results of the performed simulation study demonstrate the robustness of the proposed test with respect to values of test parameters. Furthermore, an extensive power analysis via Monte Carlo simulations confirms that the proposed method outperforms the classical and general procedures in most cases related to a wide class of alternatives. An application to a real paired data study illustrates that the proposed test can be efficiently implemented in practice.     

A test for the linearity of the nonparametric part of a semiparametric logistic regression model

A semiparametric logistic regression model is proposed in which its nonparametric component is approximated with fixed-knot cubic B-splines. To assess the linearity of the nonparametric component, we construct a penalized likelihood ratio test statistic. When the number of knots is fixed, the null distribution of the test statistic is shown to be asymptotically the distribution of a linear combination of independent chi-squared random variables, each with one degree of freedom. We set the asymptotic null expectation of this test statistic equal to a value to determine the smoothing parameter value. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed test. Its practical use is illustrated with a real-life example.     

The Use of Permutation Tests for Variance Components in Linear Mixed Models

Standard asymptotic chi-square distribution of the likelihood ratio and score statistics under the null hypothesis does not hold when the parameter value is on the boundary of the parameter space. In mixed models it is of interest to test for a zero random effect variance component. Some available tests for the variance component are reviewed and a new test within the permutation framework is presented. The power and significance level of the different tests are investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study. The proposed test has a significance level closer to the nominal one and it is more powerful.     

Variance Shifts,Structural Breaks,and Stationarity Tests

This article considers the problem of testing the null hypothesis of stochastic stationarity in time series characterized by variance shifts at some (known or unknown) point in the sample. It is shown that existing stationarity tests can be severely biased in the presence of such shifts, either oversized or undersized, with associated spurious power gains or losses, depending on the values of the breakpoint parameter and on the ratio of the prebreak to postbreak variance. Under the assumption of a serially independent Gaussian error term with known break date and known variance ratio, a locally best invariant (LBI) test of the null hypothesis of stationarity in the presence of variance shifts is then derived. Both the test statistic and its asymptotic null distribution depend on the breakpoint parameter and also, in general, on the variance ratio. Modifications of the LBI test statistic are proposed for which the limiting distribution is independent of such nuisance parameters and belongs to the family of Cramér–von Mises distributions. One such modification is particularly appealing in that it is simultaneously exact invariant to variance shifts and to structural breaks in the slope and/or level of the series. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the power loss from using our modified statistics in place of the LBI statistic is not large, even in the neighborhood of the null hypothesis, and particularly for series with shifts in the slope and/or level. The tests are extended to cover the cases of weakly dependent error processes and unknown breakpoints. The implementation of the tests are illustrated using output, inflation, and exchange rate data series.     

On a test of independence for contingency tables

Using the concept of distributional distance, a test statistic is proposed FOR the hypothesis of independence in multidimensional contingency tables. A Monte Carlo Study is done to empirically compare the power of the proposed test to the Pearson x² and the likelihood ratio test- Further, the nonnull distribution under various spike alternatives is tabulated     

On a life testing problem involving the two parameter exponential distribution

For a hypothesis testing problem involving the location and scale parameters of an exponential distribution, Perng (1977) proposed a test procedure based on the first r out of n observed failure times. In this paper the likelihood ratio test is determined, critical values are provided and the asymptotic null distribution is determined. An alternate test based on an F statistic is also proposed and the critical regions and power functions of the procedures are compared.     

An empirical likelihood ratio based goodness-of-fit test for Inverse Gaussian distributions

The Inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution is commonly introduced to model and examine right skewed data having positive support. When applying the IG model, it is critical to develop efficient goodness-of-fit tests. In this article, we propose a new test statistic for examining the IG goodness-of-fit based on approximating parametric likelihood ratios. The parametric likelihood ratio methodology is well-known to provide powerful likelihood ratio tests. In the nonparametric context, the classical empirical likelihood (EL) ratio method is often applied in order to efficiently approximate properties of parametric likelihoods, using an approach based on substituting empirical distribution functions for their population counterparts. The optimal parametric likelihood ratio approach is however based on density functions. We develop and analyze the EL ratio approach based on densities in order to test the IG model fit. We show that the proposed test is an improvement over the entropy-based goodness-of-fit test for IG presented by Mudholkar and Tian (2002). Theoretical support is obtained by proving consistency of the new test and an asymptotic proposition regarding the null distribution of the proposed test statistic. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the powerful properties of the proposed method. Real data examples demonstrate the applicability of the density-based EL ratio goodness-of-fit test for an IG assumption in practice.     

On Small Sample Properties of the Wald,LR and LM Tests in a Linear Model with AR(1) Errors

When the error terms are autocorrelated, the conventional t-tests for individual regression coefficients mislead us to over-rejection of the null hypothesis. We examine, by Monte Carlo experiments, the small sample properties of the unrestricted estimator of ρ and of the estimator of ρ restricted by the null hypothesis. We compare the small sample properties of the Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier test statistics for individual regression coefficients. It is shown that when the null hypothesis is true, the unrestricted estimator of ρ is biased. It is also shown that the Lagrange multiplier test using the maximum likelihood estimator of ρ performs better than the Wald and likelihood ratio tests.     

Goodness-of-fit testing of a weak memoryless property of life distributions

A life distribution is said to have a weak memoryless property if its conditional probability of survival beyond a fixed time point is equal to its (unconditional) survival probability at that point. Goodness‐of‐fit testing of this notion is proposed in the current investigation, both when the fixed time point is known and when it is unknown but estimable from the data. The limiting behaviour of the proposed test statistic is obtained and the null variance is explicitly given. The empirical power of the test is evaluated for a commonly known alternative using Monte Carlo methods, showing that the test performs well. The case when the fixed time point t₀ equals a quantile of the distribution F gives a distribution‐free test procedure. The procedure works even if t₀ is unknown but is estimable.