Systems Analysis of Failures as a Quality Management Tool

Managers and quality practitioners are familiar with the linkage of the words quality and systems to denote a systematic approach to quality, as in BS5750 Quality Systems, say. There is, however, a more specialized use of the word systems that indicates the application of systems thinking and which gives rise to the adjective systemic (of, or pertaining to a system) rather than systematic (carrying out in a planned and orderly fashion). This paper examines the potential for applying systems thinking to the management of quality with particular reference to one branch of systems work: the study of failures. The paper draws comparisons between quality and systems analysis of failures and points out that some failures could equally well be described as quality problems and vice versa. The paper argues that problems at the system level are frequently overlooked or avoided by those undertaking quality improvement programmes, partly because individuals within an organization may experience only different, smaller aspects of a systemic problem and partly because the problem solvers may lack the means or motivation to tackle complex, poorly defined problem messes. It then goes on to suggest that use of a meta–method for problem analysis would enable such problems to be addressed. One such method that has been widely applied in the study of failures, the failures method, is described in detail and its application to a failure/quality problem is outlined.     

基于神经网络的洪水灾害预测方法

在工程应用的实际预测中,主要有两类不同性质的问题,一类是强结构化问题,另一类是弱结构化问题。而洪水灾害系统的预测问题,基本上属于弱结构化问题。人工神经网络是处理弱结构化问题的强有力的工具,人工神经网络所具有的一些特征表明了它适用于洪水灾害的预测。本文建立了用于洪水灾害预测的人工神经网络模型,阐述了其基本原理,并结合实例说明了其应用。     

用线性互补及二次规划理论分析市场均衡问题

本文讨论了一类完全竞争条件下的市场均衡问题,供给方的生产特征用线性规划模型进行刻划,市场需求函数源于一般经济意义下的模型,它是一系列相互独立的价格变量的函数．我们将此问题归结为线性互补问题,并依此讨论了均衡点的存在性．本文还讨论了一种用二次规划进行刻划的经济问题,并指出此二次规划的K－K－T条件等价于所讨论的线性互补问题．     

Zero-Lifting for Integer Block Structured Problems

This paper deals with the relations between the polyhedron described by the inequalities of a block structured problem and the polyhedra described by the inequalities of the single blocks. In particular, classes of block structured problems are described for which zero-lifting of facet inducing inequalities of a single block yields facet inducing inequalities for the whole problem. Some applications are discussed.     

Floating ideas—An experiment in enhancing hypergames with maps

Within the OR community, an increasing emphasis is being placed on developing approaches to tackle complex, ‘messy’ decision problems. The work described in this paper arose out of the premise that it would be desirable to integrate ideas from a number of different approaches of this type. Specifically, the paper describes one experimental attempt to link methods for modelling conflict situations (the analysis of options and hypergames) with the cognitive mapping approach to eliciting subjective data. Taking a personally-owned decision problem, mapping was used to enrich the game-based approaches by providing a way of documenting the argumentation underlying the models used. Though difficult to generalise from, the experiment not only suggested that such an extension is likely to be an improvement, but also highlighted some deficiencies in the existing versions of the game-based approaches themselves.     

有限分布信息条件下MTO再制造系统提前期优化

在只知道零部件再制造时间有限分布信息（即一阶矩、二阶矩）条件下,基于MTO再制造策略研究由再制件和采购件组成的再制品的提前期问题,该问题被描述为一个矩问题。以最小化库存持有成本和缺货成本为目标建立min-max优化模型,在具有相同一阶矩、二阶矩的分布集合中寻找使最坏分布下的目标函数值最小的最优再制造提前期。最后通过算例进行了验证,求解结果与传统假设再制造时间服从正态分布、均匀分布得到的结果吻合较好,但本文的方法更符合生产实际,能保证在具有同样一阶矩和二阶矩的所有分布情况下的解的鲁棒性,对企业制定再制造计划、采购计划等具有现实的指导意义。     

Combinatorial Optimization in Rapidly Mutating Drug-Resistant Viruses

Resistance to chemicals is a common current problem in many pests and pathogens that formerly were controlled by chemicals. An extreme case occurs in rapidly mutating viruses such as Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), where the emergence of selective drug resistance within an individual patient may become an important factor in treatment choice. The HIV patient subpopulation that already has experienced at least one treatment failure due to drug resistance is considered more challenging to treat because the treatment options have been reduced. A triply nested combinatorial optimization problem occurs in computational attempts to optimize HIV patient treatment protocol (drug regimen) with respect to drug resistance, given a set of HIV genetic sequences from the patient. In this paper the optimization problem is characterized, and the objects involved are represented computationally. An implemented branch-and-bound algorithm that computes a solution to the problem is described and proved correct. Data shown includes empirical timing results on representative patient data, example clinical output, and summary statistics from an initial small-scale human clinical trial.     

ON PREDICTING COMPUTATIONAL TIME OF A BRANCH AND BOUND ALGORITHM FOR THE ASSIGNMENT OF FACILITIES

Experience with branch and bound algorithms indicates that computational time is a function of not only the size of the problem, but also the nature of the input data. This paper formulates statistically-based variables which describe certain characteristics of the input data and experimentally evaluates their ability to predict computational time for one branch and bound algorithm, the relative location of facilities or “plant layout” problem. Results suggest that the described experimental procedure may be useful for an a priori assessment of the computational difficulty of specific branch and bound problems.     

A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR PERIODICAL SELECTION

This paper presents a model for choosing the periodical collection in a reading room. The model consists of two stages. In the first stage the probability distribution of contacts by users with a given periodical is developed and employed to determine the utility of the periodical. In the second stage the problem of choosing an optimum periodical collection is formulated as a capital budgeting problem and solved with the aid of dynamic programming. The implementation of this model at the University of Connecticut is described in detail.     

分销系统中代理人可能合谋的委托代理问题研究

本文考虑具有一个生产商和两个零售商的分销系统中零售商可能合谋的委托代理问题。在假设商品销售量对于服务水平敏感,每个零售商的销售量不仅与自身的服务水平有关、同时受另一零售商服务水平影响的情况下,分别考虑分销商非合谋时生产商的最优激励问题、分销商合谋但生产商不知道时生产商所付出的代价问题以及生产商知道分销商合谋企图或以前有过合谋行为时的防范问题,建立了相应的模型。仿真结果表明,分销商合谋但生产商不知道时生产商付出较大代价,而在采取防范措施后其付出代价较小,但这两种情况下的利润均小于零售商非合谋时生产商所能获得的利润。     

An Industrial Ocean-Cargo Shipping Problem

This paper reports the modeling and solution of an industrial ocean-cargo shipping problem. The problem involves the delivery of bulk products from an overseas port to transshipment ports on the Atlantic Coast, and then over land to customers. The decisions made include the number and the size of ships to charter in each time period during the planning horizon, the number and location of transshipment ports to use, and transportation from ports to customers. The complexity of this problem is compounded by the cost structure, which includes fixed charges in both ship charters and port operations. Such a large scale, dynamic, and stochastic problem is reduced to a solvable stationary, deterministic, and cyclical model. The process of modeling the problem and the solution of the resultant mixed integer program are described in detail. Recommendations from this study have been implemented.     

Data and Model Management in a Generalized MCDM-DSS*

Drawing upon the choice models developed in the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) area, this paper proposes an architecture for designing an intelligent decision support system (DSS) that is intended to aid in making choices among multiple alternatives along multiple dimensions. It argues that effective support can be provided to the decision maker when the knowledge-based DSS is capable of dynamically selecting choice models appropriate to the domain and context of a particular problem being specified by the decision maker, and of properly applying them to the problem solution. Development of a prototype intended to partially represent application of the architecture is described. The paper concludes with suggestions for research extensions.     

The Knapsack Sharing Problem: An Exact Algorithm

In this paper, we propose an exact algorithm for the knapsack sharing problem. The proposed algorithm seems quite efficient in the sense that it solves quickly some large problem instances. The problem is decomposed into a series of single constraint knapsack problems; and by applying the dynamic programming and another strategy, we solve optimally the original problem. The performance of the exact algorithm is evaluated on a set of medium and large problem instances (a total of 240 problem instances). This algorithm is parallelizable and this is one of its important feature.     

IT服务供需双边匹配的模糊多目标决策方法

描述了IT服务外包中的供给方与需求方的双边匹配决策问题。为了解决该问题,针对IT服务的供给方和需求方分别给出的语言满意度评价信息,将语言评价信息转化为三角模糊数并进行多指标信息的集结运算。在此基础上,考虑以供给方和需求方双方满意度最大为目标,构建了IT服务供需双边匹配的模糊多目标优化模型,并采取将模糊多目标优化模型转化为单目标线性规划模型的方式进行求解得到匹配结果。实例计算表明,提出的方法具有可行性和实用性。     

Approximation schemes for Euclidean vehicle routing problems with time windows

The vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW) is a variant of the classical vehicle routing problem. The paper considers two dimensional and one dimensional VRPTW, in which each demand must be serviced within the time window which is designated by its customer. In the two dimensional problem, each customer has the same unit demand. The paper gives a quasi-polynomial time approximation scheme and an asymptotic polynomial time approximation scheme for the two dimensional and one dimensional problems under the Euclidean setting, respectively. With reasonable vehicle speed requirements, our algorithms could generate the solutions whose the total route length is \((1 + O(\varepsilon ))\) times of that of the optimum solutions.     

优化设施服务的网络调整费用均衡问题研究

在物流网络中,当服务设施(配送中心、大型超市等)建立后,由于设施服务水平、市场需求等因素发生变化,需要调整物流网络中各个环节的配送时间来优化设施的服务能力。调整优化的过程中既要考虑需求目标、运行费用的同时也需要考虑调整的成本。本文针对该问题,提出了优化设施服务的物流网络调整费用均衡模型,并针对单个设施的树形配送网络结构,通过辅助网络将该问题转化为最小费用流问题,给出了多项式算法。最后,文中给出了算例以及两种费用的均衡分析。     

基于峰值负荷的签派员席位任务分配问题

本文研究的问题来源于航空公司运行控制中心的签派部门,签派员在放行航班时,既要保证航班的正点起飞,又要调节放行航班的工作劳动强度保证放行的质量,使航班在安全状态下运行。这里放行航班的工作劳动强度为单位时间内的工作时间,峰值负荷即劳动强度最大值。峰值负荷过高则工作紧张,进而推断该放行席位的任务分配不合理。文中将问题描述为任务有优先序的单机排序问题,每个任务都有一个到达时间（release time）、截止期限（deadline）和处理时间（procession time）,处理时间因任务的不同而不同,目标是在绝对不准延误完成任务前提下,使单位时间的峰值负荷最小。在使单位时间峰值负荷最小的目标下,本文提出了一个有效算法,并证明该算法下的任务安排是最优安排。     

基于改进遗传算法的置换装配线调度问题研究

企业的置换装配线调度问题（Permutation Assembly-line Scheduling Problem,PASP）是一类典型的NP-hard型生产调度问题,是现代集成制造系统CIMS极为关心的问题。该问题可以具体描述为n个工件要在m台机器上加工,每个工件需要经过m道工序,每道工序要求不同的机器,这n个工件通过m台机器的顺序相同,它们在每台机器上的加工顺序也相同,问题的主要目标是找到n个工件在每台机器上的最优加工顺序,使得最大完工时间最小。由于PASP问题的NP-hard性质,本文使用遗传算法对其进行求解。尽管遗传算法常用以求解调度问题,但其选择与交叉机制易导致局部最优及收敛慢。因此,本文提出基于区块挖掘与重组的改进遗传算法用于求解置换装配线调度问题。首先通过关联规则挖掘出不同的优秀基因,然后将具有较优结果的基因组合为优势区块,产生具优势的人工解,并引入高收敛性的局部搜索方法,提高搜索到最优解的机会与收敛效率。本文以OR-Library中Taillard标准测试例来验证改进遗传算法的求解质量与效率,结果证明：本文所提算法与其它求解调度问题的现有5种知名算法相比,不仅收敛速度较快,同时求解质量优于它们。     

CORPORATE RISK MANAGEMENT: A MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

A problem faced by any corporate risk manager, once he has decided what set of properties will be insured, is to choose among the policies offered by potential insurers. This choice usually involves negotiating with insurers over the exact premium and deductible amounts which will characterize the coverage. In this paper, the problem is modeled in terms of expected utility of different forms of coverage. The model enables a risk manager to select among available terms of coverage and, more significantly, provides guidelines for him in negotiating with the insurers to obtain the best possible terms. As an illustration, an application using real data is described.     

The teaching of business policy—A fresh approach

The artificiality of the circumstances in which much of management education takes place is exemplified in the teaching of business policy where the missing ingredient of responsibility is most crucial. The use of ready made cases compounds this problem by presenting the student with a partly identified problem and the information he must use in tackling it. A different approach in which students prepare their own studies of named companies and discuss their analysis and proposals with senior executives from those companies reduces to a worthwhile degree the artificiality of much business policy teaching. This paper discusses the problems of teaching in this field and describes an approach using the method described above.