A Two-Period Repeated Game Advertising Investment Model for Oligopolistic Markets with an Application to the Beer Industry*

This paper proposes a simple analytical model of advertising competition in oligopoly markets. The widely used log-log sales response function underlies the model specification. Advertising carryover effects are assumed to persist for one period following the period in which the expenditure occurs. Firms are assumed to be engaged in a repeated competitive game in which in every period advertising levels are set such that they maximize current and next period (i.e., two-period) profits. A Nash equilibrium solution is sought for the game. Compared with previous empirical studies of advertising competition in a game theoretic framework, the proposed model offers the following advantages: (1) oligopoly, not duopoly, markets are analyzed; (2) industry sales is allowed to vary over time as a function of advertising expenditures; (3) non-zero discount rates are used for the players. An empirical application is provided using data from the beer market on sales and advertising expenditures of Anheuser-Busch and Miller Brewing. Comparisons are provided with policies that ignore the dependence of next period profits on current advertising levels, reaction function strategies and spending levels obtained from a market share game. Extension of the model formulation to multiple marketing instruments is briefly discussed.     

Product mix in the TFT-LCD industry

As operational costs and equipment depreciation in the TFT-LCD (thin film transistor-liquid crystal display) industry are a high percentage of the total cost, most manufacturers usually fully utilise their production capacity to reduce the average unit cost. However, when the market demand is less than the supply the stock of panels increases; this forces manufacturers to instigate a price war to reduce levels of stock and results in a wide fluctuation in panel prices. Inventory stocks of panels could be decreased by optimising the product mix. This will help manufacturers to reduce the risk of holding stocks, increase profit, and improve competitive advantage. This study uses mixed integer linear programming (MILP) to construct a product mix for the TFT-LCD industry given the conditions of profit, productivity, raw materials supply, and market demand. A case study shows that this model is proven to be effective in generating product mix for the TFT-LCD industry while improving profit. The product mix generated by this model can provide a reference for the sales department for orders and shipping, for the production department for the order quantity, and for master production scheduling for each product.     

A new product growth model with a dynamic market potential

Traditional new product diffusion models have assumed a constant market potential over the planning horizon for forecasting product adoptions. This assumption is conceptually unsound and is likely to yield either theoretically unacceptable parameter estimates of the model or poor demand forecasts. This paper presents a dynamic growth model which relaxes this assumption. Model illustrations, limitations and further extensions are included.     

Forecasting industrial production using structural time series models

Industrial production data series are volatile and often also cyclical. Hence, univariate time series models which allow for these features are expected to generate relatively accurate forecasts of industrial production. A particular class of unobservable components models — structural time series models — is used to generate forecasts of Austrian and German industrial production. A widely applied ARIMA model is used as a baseline for comparison. The empirical results show that the basic structural model generates more accurate forecasts than the ARIMA model when accuracy is measured in terms of size of error or directional change; and that the basic structural model forecasts better than the structural model with a cyclical component included on the basis of numerical measures, and tracking error for month-to-month changes.     

跨国企业嵌入集群下链与链竞争动态网络模型分析

在产业集群背景下,跨国企业携技术领先优势进入集群,经历从竞争嵌入(斯坦伯格博弈)到融合均衡(古诺博弈)两阶段。基于此,本文研究集群原有供应链在跨国企业嵌入后,形成原供应链与新供应链之间相互竞争,以及最终达到集群整体网络动态均衡的变化过程,通过利用变分不等式和动态博弈方法,建立起考虑汇率下的链与链动态竞争网络模型,并给出相应的算法。通过实例发现,在第一阶段原有集群供应链能保持较高的消费者满意度,且市场占有率高于跨国企业供应链;在第二阶段,跨国企业供应链的市场占有率则反超。更重要的是,在第二阶段集群市场整体销量和整体利润总和均高于第一阶段。     

Adapting production for private label goods

Linear Programming (LP) is a valuable tool of operational research and has been applied successfully to problems of production scheduling, particularly in the process industries. It is dependent to a large degree on forecasts of demand for the products: when demand is erratic, production scheduling suffers, whatever the technique employed. LP is sometimes adopted, however, in situations which do not necessarily warrant its use. Such a case arose when considering the production difficulties of private label goods in the food industry. The problem was eventually modified with the full cooperation of management, despite initial opposition. The solution found was to adapt as a company to market conditions, instead of forcing the production function to operate within artificial constraints.     

在线设备更新问题的竞争策略及其风险补偿模型

本文基于一种设备在线租赁的基础上,提出了在线设备更新问题。运用传统竞争比方法分别研究了两阶段设备更新问题在有无利率情形下的在线竞争策略,并建立了相应的风险补偿模型,从而在线投资者可以根据自己的风险容忍度和预期选择最优的更新策略。市场利率的引入使得在线设备更新模型更复杂但更贴近于现实中的设备更新问题。最后,通过具体实例进一步说明了市场利率下在线竞争比更小,而且竞争比关于市场利率递减;同时也说明了风险补偿模型中最优约束竞争比要小的多。因此,投资者若考虑到资金的收益及市场风险因素后将会采取更加谨慎稳健的投资策略。     

Problems in the application of portfolio selection models

This paper discusses a number of problems which arise in the implementation of portfolio selection models. It is suggested that the effect of errors and biases in expected return forecasts can be reduced by using these forecasts to modify a prior distribution which leads to minimal trading activity. Efficient diversification across industry groups is hampered by the difficulties of predicting covariances. The use of a selection model through time raises the issues of revising forecasts and of the relationships upon which the appropriate investment horizon and portfolio turnover depend. Last, consideration is given to the conflicts which may exist between management objectives and the mean-variance criterion used by most models.     

基于厂商理论的区域产业边界和最优要素配置结构

区域经济发展核心是产业结构优化升级和资源的优化配置。在全球经济结构亟待优化升级和要素资源呈现不同层次紧缺的大背景下,如何合理配置和引导区域资源配置,优化产业发展方向,确定包括新兴产业在内的产业发展战略,是每一个地区新形势下面临的重要问题。一方面,在经济全球化和零边际成本趋势驱动下,区域产业发展不再局限于区域内部资源禀赋,资源流动性加强,区域产业发展的选择更加广泛和灵活;另一方面,资源日益短缺和经济快速发展推动了劳动力成本和资本成本上升,产业的生产要素配置也随之变化。基于厂商理论,将区域作为市场经济中的生产主体,在考虑区域交易成本和生产要素成本的基础上,构建区域产业边界模型和产业的最佳要素配置结构模型,开创了资源和商品全球化趋势下的产业升级战略的研究范式,探索了成本约束下的产业生产要素优化配置模式,为经济新常态下的区域产业升级战略和资源配置研究提供理论指引,为区域制定个性化的产业发展战略提供实践依据,同时对零边际成本社会趋势下的产业格局进行了初步的探索。研究得出：产业边界能够在一定程度下反映区域产业长期演化趋势,在完全市场经济下产业边界是产业发展的最优规模;区域产业的要素配置格局取决于产业的资源占用和资源贡献情况,最优配置结构受各要素的相对贡献率和相对成本影响;产业边界与成本的关系取决于规模经济与否,在规模经济状态下与生产成本成正相关关系,与交易成本成负相关关系;大部分地区的农业有较大提升空间,最佳资源配置方案是加大机械动能投入。     

基于持续运营机会约束的竞争设施点选址研究——一种有效的实数编码遗传求解算法

竞争设施点选址是空间经济、区域发展、组合优化和系统工程的重要课题之一。本文以市场份额最大化为目标,研究了基于持续运营机会约束的竞争设施点选址问题,并给出了一种有效的实数编码遗传求解算法。在求解模型方面,首先假定运营成本是竞争设施点规模大小的函数,并对设施点持续运营概率进行机会约束,借鉴引力模型建立竞争设施点选址-设计问题的非线性混合整数规划模型。其次,考虑到选址变量和规模变量的数值类型,以及编码变换问题,设计了一种实数编码遗传求解算法。通过数值实验表明,对不同规模问题的实际计算结果,该算法可以在较短时间内获得最优解,可行解和精确解之间误差小于0.5%,相关比较分析也讨论了该算法的优越性和实用性,为竞争设施点选址问题的研究提供了不同的视角和实用求解算法。     

Betriebsformen im Automobilhandel �C Resultate einer empirischen Untersuchung

Whereas most retail industries are characterized by a great diversity of competitive retail formats, the automotive industry largely relies on one single retail format, the authorized car dealer. However, both automobile manufacturers and car dealers are trying to expand sales activities for automobiles by implementing new and innovative retail formats. A focal point raised within this context is the question about (potential) customers?? expectations regarding retail formats in the automotive industry. To be able to analyze these expectations, eleven attributes which are specific to automotive retail formats have been derived from a literature overview. The resulting taxonomy of attributes has then been used to systematically identify current and future retail formats in this particular industry. Using an hierarchical adaptive conjoint analysis model, the attributes describing different automotive retail formats have being extensively analyzed. By developing this specific conjoint analysis model, it is possible to both analyze single attributes and entire retail formats regarding their impact on the automotive market as well as particular market segments.     

一体化下游企业的零部件自制与外包决策的供应链短期均衡研究

企业常常面临选择:零部件生产是自己制造还是外包给零部件供应商,在产业组织理论中是一个企业纵向一体化的选择问题。在分析指出下游企业零部件生产的外包和自制的市场行为改变了该产业组织的结构的基础上,本文分别以上游供应商利润、下游企业利润和消费者剩余为优化目标,研究上游供应商的产品定价、下游企业零部件生产的外包和自制决策,将cournot博弈嵌套到Stackelberg博弈中,建立该产业组织的复合博弈模型,得到了该产业组织在不同结构下的不同均衡,即相关企业的最优生产经营决策。对于上游供应商,下游企业零部件生产的外包比自制总是可以获得较高的利润,并且两者的差距随着市场容量的增加而增大,对于下游企业,其零部件自制获得的利润总是高于外包获得的利润,其竞争的下游企业的利润则也是与之同方向变化。这些结果可供供应链的企业在竞争环境下制定最优市场策略时参考,尤其是可供企业在零部件外包或自制决策时参考。     

买方势力、资产专用性与技术创新——基于中国汽车工业的实证检验

在纵向关联市场中,买方势力和资产专用性是影响企业技术创新的重要因素。本文以我国汽车工业2000-2008年统计数据为样本,利用面板数据模型对买方市场势力、资产专用性与技术创新的关系进行了实证检验,研究结果表明:技术创新行为不仅取决于企业自身所处的市场条件,还与作为买方的下游行业市场竞争状况有关,买方市场势力的增强有利于上游企业技术创新活动的开展;下游企业的资产专用性对上游企业技术创新具有显著的负效应,固定资产比例越高,研发投入越少。此外,较快的市场需求增长率和买方技术能力对技术创新具有积极影响,上下游行业之间较为对等的市场势力会阻碍技术创新。     

A quick response production strategy to market demand

The reason for considering the quick response production strategy to market demand is due to the rapid technology change, which results in decreasing market price and obsolescence. This study considers a production strategy of locating final production line in response to the changes in market demand and the continuous deterioration in stock. The demand rate is assumed to decrease exponentially with time while the price is assumed to decrease linearly with time. The purpose of this study is to derive the most economical site of final-production line that assembles products with short life cycle. The model considered in this research takes into account the sales revenue, the deteriorating cost, the carrying cost, the variable cost and the fixed cost of production. Although there is a higher labour and material cost when the production site is located near market point, the total profit increases due to quicker responsive time, smaller import tax, lower inventory and lesser deteriorating cost.     

DEALER INTERMEDIATION BETWEEN MARKETS

We develop a dynamic model of dealer intermediation between a monopolistic customer–dealer market and a competitive interdealer limit order market. Dealers face inventory constraints and adverse selection. We characterize the optimal quote setting and inventory management behavior for both markets in closed form and reveal how price setting in one market segment influences quote behavior in the other. The framework is used to explore market stability issues of the two‐tier market structure and delivers testable predictions about how the dispersion of retail prices is related to the state of the interdealer limit order book. Data from the European sovereign bond market is used to test for inventory related retail price dispersion.     

How Does Centrality in Coopetition Networks Matter? An Empirical Investigation in the Mobile Telephone Industry

This research examines how a firm's position in a coopetitive network (formed through cooperation among firms within an industry) influences the extent of the firm's competitive aggressiveness and market performance. The authors collected data on the competitive and cooperative actions of firms in the mobile telephone industry from 2000 to 2006, using structured content analysis of news reports. The results show that the centrality of a firm in a coopetitive network contributes to the firm's competitive aggressiveness through increased volume and variety of competitive actions. Further, the more central a firm is in the network, the greater is its market performance. Firms that undertake more volume and variety of competitive actions improve their market performance. Overall, these results show that being in a central position in a coopetition network is quite advantageous for the firm.     

Some aspects of price strategy

A firm's success, within a rapidly growing and dynamic market, depends upon its ability to respond to market demand and to react to competitive forces. A key factor determining success is the pricing policy employed by the firm. Product pricing, however, is not simple; supply and demand, as well as the interaction and reaction of competitors, must be taken into consideration. By simulating a competitive market environment, however, a firm should be able to evaluate different pricing strategies prior to employing a strategy in practice. The goal of this research was to propose a simulation model to serve this purpose. Particularly, the objective was to demonstrate that if an industry can be characterized as one in which cost as well as price decline with cumulative volume, a pricing policy leading to market dominance exists. A simulation model is desirable for evaluating the proper pricing strategy for achieving such a market position.     

How to beat early movers: The role of competitive strategy and industry dynamism on followers’ performance in the telecommunications industry

The idea of first-mover advantages is frequently used by both managers and academics alike. Despite its importance for understanding the performance of entry in new markets, the evidence remains mixed. Our study advances research on the entry timing-performance relationship by adopting a contingency perspective that includes both micro (competitive strategies) and macro (industry dynamics) dimensions to explain differences in entrants' profitability. In this paper we focus on follower firms and propose that cost leadership is the best strategy for them to successfully entering a market. In addition, recognizing the contingency effect of industry dynamism, we also examine how market growth and technology evolution affect the effectiveness of followers’ competitive strategies. Specifically, we propose that followers will be better off by using cost strategies in growing markets, while when operating in contexts of technological change the performance of the cost leadership strategy will be lower.     

Location models for ceding market share and shrinking services

New location models are presented here for exploring the reduction of facilities in a region. The first of these models considers firms ceding market share to competitors under situations of financial exigency. The goal of this model is to cede the least market share, i.e., retain as much of the customer base as possible while shedding costly outlets. The second model considers a firm essentially without competition that must shrink it services for economic reasons. This firm is assumed to close outlets so that the degradation of service is limited. An example is offered within a competitive environment to demonstrate the usefulness of this modeling approach.     

Technical innovation and international competitiveness in the television industry

The television industry has undergone significant changes in competitive structure internationally. In the past the industry was characterised by rapid growth as first black and white and then colour television diffused throughout developed countries. More recently, recessions and market saturation have constrained growth and competition has grown more intense. Competition has intensified further with the introduction of new television-based products, such as video recorders, dises and home information systems. All the major Japanese consumer electronics firms have invested in the US and Europe in both component manufacture and set assembly. This has threatened the established US and European manufacturers. Innovation has played a major role in international competitiveness. Innovation in products and manufacturing processes has changed the nature of competition in the industry. Japanese firms have been the most successful innovators. By applying advanced automation in assembly, testing and handling to large production volumes, the Japanese have achieved dramatically superior performance in terms both of productivity and of quality. European and US firms have only responded to the challenge belatedly.