基于互联网的企业智能决策支持系统研究

本文在分析互联网发展对企业智能决策支持系统的影响的基础上,研究了基于互联网的企业智能决策支持系统的网络模型与体系框架模型,及该系统的问题求解与综合子系统、互联网信息采集与存储子系统、数据库与数据仓库子系统、定量分析和模型子系统、定性分析与知识子系统。还研究了OLAP与数据挖掘在该系统中的作用,与该系统进行决策支持的一般决策过程。提出了完善发展该系统应解决的关键问题。     

A decision support system for banks

Just recently, information systems with rather unique characteristics have begun to emerge. These systems usually referred to as Decision Support Systems, feature decision models, a data base and the decision maker as subsystems and are specifically oriented to supporting decision making. This article examines Decision Support Systems and their application to banks.     

Presenting Geographic Information: Effects of Data Aggregation,Dispersion, and Users' Spatial Orientation

Geographic information systems (GIS) have taken on an increasingly important role supporting decision making in many organizations. GIS have been used to support a breadth of tasks including oil and mineral exploration, facility location, logistics support, and facilities management decisions. The effectiveness of GIS as a decision support tool comes primarily from the visual display of data in the form of maps. When presenting information as a geographic map, the level of data aggregation potentially affects aspects of task complexity such as information load and the potential for pattern recognition by the user. Other task attributes expected to be related to data aggregation effects include problem size, the degree of data dispersion, and users' spatial orientation skills. We conducted an experiment to study these effects and their interactions. Subjects used a GIS including map-based information characterized by different levels of problem size, data dispersion, and data aggregation. Spatial orientation skill was examined as a covariate in the experimental treatments. The results indicate that all of these geographic information characteristics have significant impacts on decision performance. Moreover, many interactions are present among the factors. We evaluate these interactions in order to derive implications for practice and for future research.     

An analytic approach for planning computerized office systems

The increasing demand for timely business information as well as the need to improve the effectiveness of administrative operations are forcing managements to consider installing automated office systems. These systems provide text word processing capabilities, information management and communication options. Their planning and evaluation process considers decision issues that are, at times, in conflict with each other. This paper presents a decision framework for the planning and evaluation of computerized office systems. Attention is focused, in particular, on the selection and the integration of word processing systems in the broader context of future office developments. It evolved from several real acquisition cases where such systems had to be planned, evaluated and selected.     

The value of information concept applied to data systems

Cost-benefit analysis has a considerable literature in which information systems have been patently ignored. This reflects the considerable difficulties of applying the theory to information systems, and the state-of-the art remains relatively as Koopmans described it some 19 years ago (1957). A bar to further development would appear to be the lack of an applicable value-of-information concept. This paper seeks to clarify the issues and provide a robust theoretical and data analysis framework that will cover most situations. The approach here is to separate explicitly the dimensions of cost from those of information benefit, and examine the implications. The Null Information Benefit condition emerges as a special theoretical case, but potentially a most important one in applications. This case together with the Pareto optimum defines a large class of such problems that can be handled by the decision criteria and data analysis techniques tabulated and discussed here. The selection of input data techniques defines the limits of later project justification and may be crucial to the political viability of the projects throughout its life. Finally, the general management vs information systems management relationships are discussed in terms of this situation.     

USING MANAGEMENT GAMES AS AN AID IN TEACHING MIS DESIGN

As an approach to teaching management information systems, students are required to play a management game. The students become aware of information needs through participation in the decision process of the game. The student then develops an integrated system to assist in playing this management game. This new approach, the gaming method, is considered an effective way of teaching integrated systems because the intimate interrelationships between decision-making processes and information systems can be easily illustrated.     

THE STRUCTURE OF EXECUTIVE INFORMATION SYSTEMS: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

This paper reports on a study which attempted to identify the structure of executive information systems and evaluate their relationship to decision making. The study centered on answering the question: “Where and how do senior executives get their decision-making information?” The data, provided by five senior executives, were gathered by a variety of means which included personal interviews, questionnaires, and logs of the executives' incoming-information transactions for a two-week period. Our findings support beliefs that senior executives receive much information from the environment, that informal systems play a role equal to that of formal systems, and that computers do not provide much information directly to an executive. The study also found that internal information is important and that preferred sources and media vary with different decision roles. The authors suggest that the scope of MIS and DSS be broadened to match those information networks managers actually rely on in daily practice.     

Consistency and Accuracy in Decision Aids: Experiments with Four Multiattribute Systems*

There have been a number of multiattribute decision aids developed to aid selection problems. Multiattribute value theory and the analytic hierarchy process are two commonly used techniques. Different systems can result in radically different conclusions if they inaccurately and inconsistently reflect the preference structure of decision makers, or if they are based on inappropriate theoretical models. This study examines the impact of the underlying theoretical model, the method in which preference information is elicited, and the structure of alternatives as influences on the results from using various decision aids. It was found that two systems based on the multiattribute value theory model were just as diverse in their conclusions as were results between AHP and the multiattribute value theory models. Therefore, accuracy of information reflecting decision maker preference is an important consideration. Feedback capable of assuring the decision maker that information provided is consistent is a necessary feature required of decision aids applied to selection problems. The study also found that the way in which information is elicited influenced the result more than did the underlying model. Exact numerical data for complex concepts such as attribute importance and alternative performance on attributes is not necessary, and elicitation procedures that are more natural for the user are likely to be more accurate.     

大数据环境下双层分布式融合决策方法

为了解决大数据环境下双层分布式决策中存在的决策推理难题和信息冗余难题,基于该类决策中存在的参与主体庞杂性和业务关系交叉性分析给出了有关推断信息之间存在相关性的假设,并结合证据理论中的基本概率分配函数提出了具有柔性表达优势的推断信息描述机理,在此基础上分别针对上下两层部门构建了能够剔除管理者影响、上层部门影响且可以对部门内部所有决策主体的元推断信息进行科学融合的定理和推论,最后按照"由上至下"的决策秩序构建了大数据环境下双层分布式融合决策的方法步骤。数值对比分析结果表明提出方法具有科学性和可行性,有利于拓展大数据环境下组织管理决策问题的解决思路,探索处理不完备性数据、相关性数据的"大"模式。     

Flow management and its impacts on operational performance

Based on the organisational capability perspective and the concept of flow management, this study examines the inter-relationships between the management of five flows (human, information, decision, logistics and production flows) and their effects on operational performance. The research model was empirically tested using data from 321 Australian companies. The results show that human flow management (HFM) has a positive effect on the management of the other four flows. Further, information flow management (IFM) is positively associated with logistics flow management (LFM), whereas decision flow management (DFM) is positively associated with both production flow management (PFM) and LFM. The results also show that HFM, PFM and LFM can improve operational performance directly, whereas IFM and DFM only enhance operational performance indirectly. Our findings contribute to flow management theories and practices.     

Strategic planning for MIS

This article report on a study of the strategic decision to develop computerized management information systems (MIS) in 32 business organizations. THe findings suggest that this decision is a complex policy decision which involves protracted environmental negotiations, a high and escalating commitment of organizational resources, and extensive organizational preparation. Eleven organizational and environmental factors which influence the decision are identified through a literature review. The influence of these factors on the success of the decision is examined and recommendations are made for managing the decision-making process to insure improved decision outcomes.     

The Role of Interorganizational and Organizational Factors on the Decision Mode for Adoption of Interorganizational Systems*

The dramatic growth of interorganizational systems (IOS) has changed the way organizations conduct their business, and has resulted in significant tangible and intangible benefits being realized by participating firms. However, the implementation of these IOS requires the cooperation and commitment of all the participating members. These members may have complex economic and business relationships among themselves that can result in a number of social, political, and economic factors influencing the adoption and implementation of IOS. This study examines the role of interorganizational and organizational factors on the decision mode for adoption of IOS, in the specific context of electronic data interchange (EDI). Four interorganizational factors, based on the socio-political framework derived from research in marketing, and five organizational factors based on research in IS were used in the study. The data for the study were collected through a large scale field survey. Two respondents, the sales/purchase manager and the IS manager, from 201 firms responded to the survey. The results of discriminant analysis of the data reveal that two interorganizational variables, competitive pressure and exercised power, and two organizational variables, internal need and top management support, are important variables to differentiate firms with proactive decision mode from firms with reactive decision mode. The study also evaluates the differences between proactive and reactive firms on three implementation outcomes. Proactive firms are found to have greater extent of adaptation, more external connectivity with trading partners, and better integration of EDI information in their internal IS applications.     

Organizational Computing as a Facilitator of Operational and Managerial Decision Making: An Exploratory Study of Managers' Perceptions*

Much of the current knowledge pertaining to information technology (IT) and decision making is based on decades old technologies that revolved around a central computing function and application-specific systems. The purpose of this research is to examine the IT decision-making relationship within the emerging organizational computing (OC) environment permeated by spontaneous utilization of both application-and nonapplication-specific computing and communication technologies. Specifically, this study seeks to explore managers' perceptions of the emerging OC environment as a facilitator of their decision-making activities. To achieve a higher level of clarity than previous works, a two-dimensional research framework is developed with the IT dimension consisting of computing and communication, and the decision-making dimension differentiated between operational and managerial decisions. A survey instrument was constructed that measured the computing and communication dimensions of information technology use and their perceived effects upon operational and managerial decisions. The major findings of the study confirmed that managers recognize the value of general, nonapplication-specific information technologies in decision making, and that this recognition is highly associated with how intensively these information technologies are used. Additionally, it was found that the two dimensions of IT differ in their relationships to decision making, and that IT usage relates to managerial decisions differently than operational decisions. These study findings have significant implication for practice and research, especially in the context of information resource management in which the primary purpose of the IS function is the delivery of general information service to users rather than the development of specific IS applications.     

Promoting Transparency of Long-Term Environmental Decisions: The Hanford Decision Mapping System Pilot Project

Nuclear waste cleanup is a challenging and complex problem that requires both scientific analysis and dialogue among a variety of stakeholders. This article describes an effort to develop an online information system that supports this analytic-deliberative dialogue by integrating cleanup information for the Hanford Site, and making it more "transparent." A framework for understanding and evaluating transparency guided system development. Working directly with stakeholders, we identified information needs and developed new ways to organize and present the information so that it would be more transparent to interested parties, with the ultimate aim of fostering greater participation in decision dialogues and processes. The complexity of the information needed for dialogue suggested that several types of communication devices ("information structures") were warranted. Five information structures were developed for the pilot Decision Mapping System (http://nalu.geog.washington.edu/dms). Decision maps hyperlinked decision information to maps of Hanford. Background Information provided context in a narrative format. Decision Paths organized decision process information on a timeline and provided direct hyperlinks to online documentation. The Geographic Library hyperlinked decision documents to maps. Finally, a Discussion Forum allowed users to make comments and view remarks from others. Early lessons from this work suggest that transparency is integral to long-term management, a participatory design process contributed greatly to its perceived success, and better data integration to support decision making is needed. This work has broad implications for risk communicators and risk managers because it speaks to the design of information systems to support "analytic-deliberative" decision processes (i.e., those that rely upon both risk science and public dialogue).     

Medical informatics. The future is here

Informatics is an indispensable discipline for leaders and managers--of patients, facilities, and organizations--because the most important assets of those organizations are their information processing technologies, and the key skills are those that help them to manage information. Managers and executives will increasingly need to anticipate trends in information management technologies that could affect their business. In health care, computer-based patient records, integration engines, online analytical processing systems, telemedicine, expert systems, and the Internet have become vital to having the competitive advantage. Those who do not understand the promise and limitations of these technologies and the need for strong leadership to establish standards for data and transaction systems will not lead their organizations well.     

Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters,Public Officials,and Media Broadcasters in Boulder,Colorado

Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision‐focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals’ perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others’ decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system‐wide management of uncertainty in decisions.     

基于EM填补和加权秩和比的电力系统黑启动决策方法

电力系统大停电后需要安全可靠的黑启动方案进行电力快速恢复,如何从众多黑启动方案中进行优选是一个重要课题。不同于以往完全信息情况下的研究,本文对电力系统黑启动方案评估问题的研究是基于不完全信息情况下进行的,提出一种EM填补和加权秩和比相结合的黑启动决策方法。首先,采用EM算法填补黑启动方案评价空值,得到完备的黑启动评价矩阵;然后,计算指标间的差异性,利用差异性权重法得到各个指标的权重;最后,采用加权秩和比法确定每个方案的评分值,实现黑启动方案的分级和完全排序。本文方法基于广东电网黑启动数据集进行实验验证,实验结果表明,本文方法可以对不完全信息情况下的黑启动方案进行优劣排序,且具有较高准确性。     

The Effects of Information Overload on Software Project Risk Assessment*

Managers are responsible for providing effective information technology governance of the software development process. Ineffective governance leads to serious resource misallocations and negative consequences concerning Sarbanes‐Oxley compliance. In order for managers to make informed decisions about software development projects, they often need more information than is available through normal information channels, that is, they need an in‐depth review of the at‐risk project. Such in‐depth reviews, however, are costly. Hence, accurate identification of at‐risk projects for in‐depth review is critical to management's ability to govern. This research considers how two factors, information load and time pressure, affect the quality of the project‐selection process. We examine quality by observing the decision strategies involved and then relating these strategies to subsequent decision making. An experiment was conducted with experienced information systems auditors using a combination of policy‐capturing and computerized process‐tracing techniques. The participants in our study cope with information overload by accelerating their decision‐making process and adopting noncompensatory decision processes. Contrary to prior research, our process‐tracing analysis suggests that participants rarely filter information, thus implying that decision makers are unable to process all the information. Coping by resorting to noncompensatory strategies did not decrease decision quality unless combined with accelerated information processing. Participants also increase their weight on the software project risk factors that they repeatedly access and that they view for longer periods of time. The theoretical contributions and practical implications regarding what actions managers can take to reduce the negative impact of information overload are discussed.     

A network of management support systems

Based on the decision-making process that actually happens in most organizations, a management support system (MSS) or an integrated decision support systems (DSS) is defined as a network of subsystem interfaces, as opposed to management information system (MIS) being a network of information flows. Three modes for subsystem interfaces are discussed. To help the operationalization of the (computerized) support system, we also propose a design architecture which consists of the continuum of conceptual constructs, operational constructs and implementational constructs.     

Informational impediments to the use of capital budgeting models

The primary purpose of this study was to empirically examine whether or not informational impediments impair or alter decision making, with specific focus on capital budgeting decisions. Based on detailed interviews of senior corporate executives, it appears that management information systems (MIS) are less than adequate in providing the information items required to utilize the non-naive methods of capital budgeting. It is therefore suggested that the MIS concept be vastly broadened in regard to such decisions.