基于可信性理论的中国企业FDI风险评估

对中国企业对外直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,FDI)风险进行科学评估,是企业成功“走出去”的必要前提.通过采用公理化的可信性测度和经典的层次分析法,本文构建一个基于可信性理论的风险评估模型.模型在评估多层次风险指标时,能够避免选取隶属函数存在主观性的问题.此外,可信性测度具有自对偶性,使得模型的评估结果更容易理解和接受.针对风险因素的复杂性,本文建立FDI风险评估的多层次指标体系,并运用所构建的模型对企业FDI风险进行评估.实例证明评估模型的可行性与有效性.     

科学基金项目立项评估:综合评价信息可靠性的多指标证据推理规则研究

公正合理的科研项目立项评估与选择是国家自然科学基金管理活动的关键环节。综合考虑科研项目的评估指标体系和选择流程,提出了利用历史评估准确性度量专家提供信息可靠性的方法,进而提出了一种系统性的基于证据推理规则的科学基金项目评估决策模型。该模型使用证据推理合成规则对多专家多指标评估信息进行集结。在集结过程中：充分考虑评估指标的权重以及评估等级的多样性;鉴于参与项目评估的专家具有不同的知识背景和经验,提出利用历史评估结果的准确性衡量专家提供的评价信息可靠性的方法;应用信度分布表征项目的整体评价结果,包含了更丰富的信息。国家自然科学基金项目评估的实例分析证明了该评估决策模型的有效性。     

基于模糊判断矩阵的群决策方法研究

对多个决策者给出的偏好信息的有效集结是群决策过程的重要问题之一.不同类型的偏好信息有不同的集结方法.基于模糊判断矩阵一致性的定义,提出一种加权集结方法的最优化模型,从而得到群决策中一类模糊判断矩阵的集结方法,并进一步分析和研究群组判断矩阵与各决策者给出的判断矩阵之间关系的一些重要性质.     

基于模糊判断矩阵信息确定专家权重的方法

本文对群组模糊判断矩阵集结过程中确定专家权重的问题进行了研究,建立了模糊判断矩阵的特征矩阵和求解群集结矩阵的最优化模型,通过矩阵之间距离度量判断信息自身逻辑一致性程度和群体相容性程度,给出一种基于专家判断信息的可信度计算其后验权重的方法,最后用算例予以说明.     

一种基于区间直觉梯形模糊数偏好的大群体决策冲突测度研究

针对决策偏好为区间直觉梯形模糊数的大群体决策冲突测度问题,首先给出了两个区间直觉梯形模糊数的距离,提出了群体成员冲突函数,基于该函数对大群体成员偏好进行聚类形成若干聚集,以此为基础提出了聚集冲突测度模型并集结为群体冲突测度模型,然后应用于大群体偏好集结。最后通过一个算例对模型进行了验证。该模型便于大群体意见的分析与协调,适用于群决策支持系统,在应急决策中具有实际应用价值。     

多专家判断的模糊偏好信息集结规划方法

本文给出了一种群决策中通过专家判断矩阵集结专家判断信息的方法。在考虑各专家具有不同强度的偏好效用和容许部分专家给出不完整信息的情况下,将专家判断信息集结转化为一类模糊规划问题,通过最大化群组满意度获得最终的群决策结果。最后,本文通过一个算例说明该方法的可行性及有效性。     

多重不确定环境下基于证据理论的NIS安全风险评估模型

以证据理论为基础,构造一种能够适应多重不确定环境的网络信息系统安全风险评估模型。在模型中建立安全风险评估指标体系并对指标权重进行量化;重新定义基本概率赋值函数,以适应安全风险评估过程中证据的不确定性描述;实现证据一致性检验并确定调整方法,从而进一步降低评估过程中专家经验的不确定性;最后,通过实证分析验证该模型的正确性和有效性。     

基于粗糙集理论的专有技术价值评估模型研究

应用粗糙集理论对专有技术价值评估指标体系进行了约简并给出了相关算法,在此基础上构建了基于粗糙集理论的专有技术价值评估模型.     

基于交互密度算子的交互式群体评价信息集结方法及其应用

交互式群体评价的一个难点问题是评价信息的集结问题,而国内较少有文献从信息集结算子的角度进行探讨,针对这种不足,同时考虑到信息分布密度是交互式群体评价信息集结的一个重要特征,本文提出了一种基于交互密度算子的交互式群体评价信息集结方法。提出了交互密度算术加权算子(IDWA)与交互密度几何加权算子(IDWGA)两种新的算子,并对新算子的相关性质进行了分析,同时介绍了IDWA和IDWGA算子加权向量(即密度权向量)的确定方法。最后将该方法进行了运用。文章对交互式评价信息集结问题提供了一种新的研究思路。     

一种基于语言偏好关系的群体评价方法

针对专家偏好信息权重未知的基于语言偏好关系的群体评价问题提出了一种解决方法.首先,采用序关系分析法和唯一参照物比较判断法指导专家表达偏好信息;其次,在对专家偏好信息形式转换的基础上,定义了2个基于二元语义的诱导有序加权平均算子对权重未知的专家偏好信息进行集结,从而得出群体评价结论;最后,给出了一个应用算例.     

基于公理设计理论的仿真软件评价方法研究

针对仿真软件评价优选问题,提出一种基于公理设计理论的仿真软件评价方法。以公理设计理论为指导建立仿真软件评价模型,通过信息公理以信息量大小为测度来度量仿真软件产品的优劣。考虑到备选方案评价指标信息具有不完全性和模糊性特征,采用信息公理中的经典信息量计算方法存在局限性,对信息公理中的信息量计算方法进行拓展,提出基于单值点、区间数相离度、满意度和模糊信息的信息量计算方法。结合经典的和拓展的信息量计算方法,给出仿真软件评价流程。以某生产制造企业选择仿真软件产品为例,说明所提出方法的可行性和有效性,实验结果也揭示了在仿真软件商业领域竞争中软件质量起到至关重要的作用。     

Strategic risk in supply chain contract design

Supply chains facing asymmetric information can either operate in a cooperative mode with information and benefit sharing or can choose a non-cooperative form of interaction and align their incentives via screening contracts. In the cooperative mode, supply chain efficiency can be achieved, but high levels of trust and trustworthiness are required. In the non-cooperative mode, the contract mechanism guarantees a second best supply chain performance, but only if all parties choose their equilibrium strategies without trembles. Experimental evidence, however, shows that both operating modes often fail due to strategic risk. Cooperation is disrupted by deceptive signals and the lack of trust, whereas non-cooperative strategies suffer from persistent out-of-equilibrium behavior. We present two means to reduce strategic risk. First, a punishment mechanism leads to a better matching of trust and trustworthiness and supports the cooperative operating mode. Second, an enforcement of self-selection supports the non-cooperative equilibrium by increasing the attractiveness of screening contracts. We find that supply chain performance can benefit from reduced strategic risk in either operating mode.     

基于云计算的多源信息服务系统研究综述

在对云计算基本概念、特征、层次、分类等进行分析的基础上,从管理的视角对基于云计算的多源信息服务系统作了综述.在云计算环境下多源信息服务过程中,描述了信息服务各要素以及面向不同领域、不同用户的多源信息服务模式;总结了信息服务资源的描述方法、发现与匹配机制、资源配置与实时监控方法等信息服务资源管理问题;归纳了多源信息服务的全生命周期以及服务过程的优化与协调机制;总结了多源信息服务过程中的可信保障机制;探讨了云计算环境下多源信息服务系统的体系结构、关键技术.通过对目前基于云计算的多源信息服务系统研究进行梳理和总结,并进一步结合不同领域的应用需求,提出了基于云计算的多源信息服务系统未来的研究方向以及应用前景.     

我国铅锌企业低碳生产水平的“DS-BP”评价模型及其实证检验

文章建立了低碳经济背景下的铅锌企业低碳生产水平评价指标体系,并同时结合BP网络和DS证据理论的优点与最新研究成果,提出了我国铅锌企业低碳生产水平的DS-BP评价模型。实证检验表明:该模型具有很好的有效性和普适性,能有效避免和改善现有其他评价方法难以面对的信息残缺、信息模糊和信息容错等问题,从而从一个崭新的角度较好地解决了铅锌企业低碳生产水平评价问题,为铅锌企业低碳战略的制定及实施提供了一种有用的分析工具和决策支持。     

基于FNN的软件项目绩效评价模型研究

从分析软件项目绩效评价指标体系不完善、评价方法不规范和模型考虑因素过于单一入手,应用统计分析理论建立软件组织状态、软件项目自身特征的指标体系;以文献研究的方式,界定软件项目绩效的内涵;提出了一种新的网络拓扑结构设计方法,建立了基于模糊神经网络的软件项目绩效评价模型;引入改进粒子群学习算法,准确高效地解决了评价模型连接权系数的确定问题。实证研究表明,该模型能够有效地评价软件项目绩效和识别项目风险因素,对软件组织制定风险规避策略、改善项目绩效水平、提供了决策支持信息。     

REQUIREMENTS PLANNING FOR CONTROL OF INFORMATION RESOURCES

Producing reports assembled from files, records, and raw data is a major function of the computer in modern organizations. Transaction processing, records management, file organization, and data-base management are aspects of the information production function that have received a good deal of attention. But planning, scheduling, and controlling the production of information products have been neglected. For complex applications involving assembly of reports from multilevel information sources, the requirements planning model is suggested as an effective alternative to present methods. Thus, our suggestion is that the computer be used to plan, schedule, and control computer production of information products. Presently available material requirements planning software may be employed with minor modifications that depend on the given information system characteristics. In this paper an example of requirements planning as applied to production of information in a satellite control system is presented.     

交叉上市股票价格发现能力差异及交易信息含量测度

本文在市场微观结构的理论框架下,对交叉上市股票的价格发现过程进行了分析。在Hasbrouck信息分成技术的基础上,提供了一种新的方法使其能够对市场交易过程中的公开信息和私有信息含量进行分解和测度。研究过程以 "A+H"交叉上市股票为研究对象,对本文的模型和方法进行了具体的应用和验证。     

Using our brains to develop better policy

Current governmental practices often use a method called weight of evidence (WoE) to integrate and weigh different sources of information in the process of reaching a decision. Recent advances in cognitive neuroscience have identified WoE-like processes in the brain, and we believe that these advances have the potential to improve current decision-making practices. In this article, we describe five specific areas where knowledge emerging from cognitive neuroscience may be applied to the challenges confronting decisionmakers who manage risks: (1) quantifying evidence, (2) comparing the value of different sources of evidence, (3) reaching a decision, (4) illuminating the role of subjectivity, and (5) adapting to new information. We believe that the brain is an appropriate model for structuring decision-making processes because the brain's network is designed for complex, flexible decision making, and because policy decisions that must ultimately depend on human judgment will be best served by methods that complement human abilities. Future discoveries in cognitive neuroscience will likely bring further applications to decision practice.     

Analyzing relational sources of power at the interorganizational communication system

Based on the critical theory of communication, managing stakeholder relations is significant to achieve more democratic decisions that reconcile diverse interests of various stakeholders. However, power inequalities among stakeholders might inhibit to achieve finely balanced decisions. More interestingly, these inequalities might emerge from the nature of communication among organizations. Conceptualizing interorganizational relations (IORs) as the relations of an organization with its stakeholders, the current study attempts to analyze the relational sources of power. Following a graph theoretical methodology, the frequency of interaction and trust were analyzed as the relational sources of power on a sample of 76 logistics firms. The findings of the study reveal that an organization’s frequency of interaction and level of trustworthiness affect its power over other organizations.     

Why trustworthiness in an IT vendor is important even after the vendor left: IT is accepting the message and not just the messenger that is important

Trustworthiness is the assessment that another person or others can be trusted because in the past they had shown adequate ability, integrity, and benevolence. Trust is the actual willingness to depend on the trusted party to fulfill its future obligations when there is risk that this trusted party might take undue advantage of the situation. In the current conceptualization of trust theory, trustworthiness is important because it leads to trust. Applied to the management of IT adoption and assessment, research has indeed shown that both trustworthiness and trust, often combined statistically, have a direct effect on IT adoption and assessment. There are circumstances, however, such as in this study, when the trusted party has left the scene, making its future actions and the risk of dependence on these actions irrelevant to the trusting party. The question arises whether trustworthiness still plays a role in such cases. Seemingly, at least based on the current conceptualization, this should make the trustworthiness of the trusted party an insignificant consideration. Logic is advanced why even in such a case trustworthiness may still be important, but should play an indirect role. The proposition suggested is that the trustworthiness of the messenger is important, as previously suggested, but what really counts is accepting the message this messenger conveyed. An argument is raised why in this case interpersonal justice increases trustworthiness and user acceptance of the message. The data support these propositions. Theory and managerial implications are discussed.