Population growth and rural-urban migration,with special reference to Ghana

While the population of Ghana is expected to double in 25 years at the current rate of increase (approximately 2.5% per annum), the population of urban centers is increasing even faster. The 1970 census shows the urban population growing by 4.8% per annum. This is mainly the result of rural to urban migration and, to a smaller extent, the increase in the number of urban centers from 39 in 1948 to 98 in 1960 to 135 in 1970. In the 1970 census only 57.1% of the population were enumerated in their locality of birth and only 20.9% in a locality other than their place of birth but in the same region. 4.1% were born outside Ghana, mostly in another West African country. 1 striking difference between urban and rural areas is the differing sex ratio of the working population. In rural areas there are 91.0 males aged 15-64 years for every 100 females while in urban areas there are 107.1. Most migration in Africa is for employment and those most likely to migrate are working-age males. Because secondary schools are scarce in rural areas, urban dwellers generally have a higher education level. There are no significant differences between overall labor force participation rates for females. The nationwide participation rate was 38.9% for both males and females (males 43.8%, females 34.1%); in urban areas the total was 40.0% (males 46.3%, females 33.7%) and in rural areas 38.5% (males 42.7%, females 34.3%). Ghanaian women have traditionally occupied a prominent place in the labor force. The theory that urban migration is due to urban-rural income disparities is not confirmed by figures. Considering the high amount of unemployment in urban areas, a rural dweller can average as much as a city dweller. In fact, poorly educated migrants are the ones most affected by urban unemployment. A recent study by Kodwo Ewusi considered the impact of many variables on migration; he found depressed social conditions at the place of origin are more compelling motivations than economic factors but that once people decide to migrate, they base their choice of destination primarily on economic opportunities available at that end. Distance bears little relationship to choice of destination. To stem this tide efforts need to be made to increase rural income, provide employment opportunities for those displaced as agriculture becomes more efficient, and to provide for greater amenities in rural areas. Urban unemployment is an ever-increasing problem, accentuated by population growth and migration. Intensive rural development is needed to reverse this trend.     

Temporary versus permanent population mobility in Melanesia: a case study from Vanuatu

A case study of temporary and circular Melanesian population mobility and labor migration focuses on the island of Paama in the Republic of Vanuatu (an archipelago of 80 islands) in Melanesia and on urbanization, which is a relatively recent phenomena. A critical analysis is provided of temporary and permanent migration and methodological inadequacies in explanations of mobility. Mobility is neither a cause nor a result of economic, social, and political change; it is the interrelationship among the general structural setting, people's personal and social environment, and their perceptions and actions. In the case of Paamese mobility, changes appeared in the source of migration and destination areas. There was a period of original land acquisition, when migrants returning from Queensland with tools were the only ones who could actually acquire land. Inequalities of land access date from this period. The population is dependent on external income sources as well as the need for plantation migration and a huge increase in bridewealth. Concurrently, "kampani" or community work, which ensures the continuous authority of local chiefs and village elders, creates problems for those seeking work for their own families. These conditions encourage out-migration. Rapid urban growth began in the 1960s with a diversified economy. Employment opportunities were available for women; single employee residence spaces declined. This meant families could permanently settle in urban areas. Retirement benefits were also available and contributed to securing permanent migration. There were growing needs for a stable, skilled labor force. Another change was the abolishment of the tripartite colonial administration. Rural disasters and price declines also triggered urban migration. Migration to the town of Port Vila by Paamese men and women between 1953 and 1982 is analyzed, based on 258 employment related mobility histories collected in 1982-83. Two processes are evident: continued periodic, short-term, rural-based circulation and permanent urban migration among Paamese to Port Vila. A major reversal of mobility is unlikely in the future. The reasons why are indicated.     

THE HETEROGENEITY OF IMMIGRANTS,HOST COUNTRIES' INCOME AND PRODUCTIVITY: A CHANNEL ACCOUNTING APPROACH

This article exploits changes in the distribution of immigrants across 20 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries from 1960 to 2005 in order to assess their contribution to income of destination countries. The non‐random sorting of immigrants across countries is addressed by using an instrumental variable strategy. The instrument is built by estimating a bilateral migration model incorporating exogenous origin country determinants of migration. Aggregate results reveal that immigrants have a positive effect on income that works primarily through total factor productivity (TFP). We further construct a novel dataset from censuses and labor force surveys to explore the information on the age of immigrants. Contrasting income effects are found across age groups: a higher share of immigrants among the youth has a negative impact on aggregate income, while a higher share of immigrants among prime‐aged workers has a positive effect. We interpret this disparity as short‐term versus medium‐term effects. Adjustments over time involve changes in TFP but also in the human capital of the native‐born. (JEL F22, J24, J31, O31)     

Cohort size effects and migration

"This article explores whether changes in the size of [U.S.] cohorts entering the labor force affect the propensity to migrate and the socioeconomic circumstances of migrants at destination. The flow of young in-migrants to large SMSAs declined during the 1965-76 period, but the relative socioeconomic standing of migrants at destination was unaffected by either cohort size or regional differentials in economic growth. It is suggested that a significant reduction in the volume of migration among members of the baby boom cohort was the primary adjustment mechanism, hence reducing the need for degrading the opportunities available to migrants."     

Urban development and employment in Abidjan

The city of Abidjan in the Ivory Coast has grown physically, economically, and demographically at rates exceeding all reasonable expectation. Yet, as in many other development nations, the employment generated by Abidjan's rapid economic expansion has failed to keep pace with the increase in working population it has attracted. Consequently, economic success has been accompanied by a variety of social strains. Some of these have been discussed in earlier issues of the "International Labour Review" by Louis Roussel. This discussion expands on Roussel's earlier treatment by focusing more specifically on several facets of the urban employment problem created by the rapid growth of Abidjan. Attention is directed to labor supply and employment, factors affecting migration, foreign Africans in the Ivory Coast labor force; the urban informal sector; urban infrastructure and development; social problems of population pressure; employment policy options (current government policies and other policy options); and general issues and policy alternatives (motivations for rural urban migration, smaller urban centers as alternative growth poles, and distributing the gains from development). Several essential features of the employment problem stem from the rural urban distribution of the workforce. The rural labor force, including temporary seasonal workers from the savannah countries to the north, remains more or less in balance with increasing rural employment opportunities, since the migration of Ivory Coast nationals to the cities is balanced by the inflow of foreign workers. In contrast, the influx of migrants into urban areas has led to a more rapid increase in the urban labor force than in urban employment, with a consequent rise in unemployment. In 1970 the Abidjan rate of open unemployment was probably around 20%. At this time, most people's idea of a desirable job is one in the formal sector of the urban economy. If there is to be any hope of an eventual balance between expectations and reality, it must be realized that an increasing share of the urban labor force will have to end up in the informal sector. Different attitudes towards work in the informal sector are needed on the part of both young people entering the labor force and of government policy makers. The latter should be seeking ways to increase productivity and incomes in the informal sector rather than for ways to destroy it. Current government policies include the training and educating of nationals to replace foreign technicians and managers, increasing the attractiveness of the rural milieu by the promotion of cooperatives, attempts to reform the land tenure system, the supply of electricity to villages, and the introduction of educational television; and adapting the educational system and technical training programs to the needs of the economy.     

Determinants of the Egyptian labour migration

The objective is to summarize the pattern of Egyptian migration to Arab oil-producing countries (AOPC), to review some factors that are important determinants of labor movement based on theory, and to empirically model the migration rate to AOPC and to Saudi Arabia. Factors are differentiated as to their relative importance. Push factors are the low wages, high inflation rate, and high population density in Egypt; pull factors are higher wages. It is predicted that an increase in income from destination countries has a significant positive impact on the migration rate. An increase in population density stimulates migration. An increase in inflation acts to increase out-migration with a 2-year lag, which accommodates departure preparation. Egypt's experience with labor migration is described for the pre-oil boom, and the post-oil boom. Several estimates of labor migration are given. Government policy toward migration is positive. Theory postulates migration to be determined by differences in the availability of labor, labor rewards between destination and origin, and the cost of migration. In the empirical model, push factors are population density, the current inflation rate, and the ratio of income/capita in AOPC to Egypt. The results indicate that the ratio of income/capita had a strong pull impact and population density had a strong push impact. The inflation rate has a positive impact with a lag estimated at 2 years. Prior to the Camp David Accord, there was a significant decrease in the number of Egyptian migrants due to political tension. The findings support the classical theory of factor mobility. The consequences of migration on the Egyptian economy have been adverse. Future models should disaggregate data because chronic shortages exist in some parts of the labor market. Manpower needs assessment would be helpful for policy makers.     

Rural development and urban migration: can we keep them down on the farm?

This study tests the hypothesis that rural development projects and programs reduce rural-urban migration. The author presents various factors in the social theories of migration, including those relating to origin and destination, intervening obstacles such as distance, and personal factors. 3 economic models of migration are the human capital or cost-benefit approach, the expected income model, and the intersectoral linkage model. Empirical studies of migration indicate that: 1) rural areas with high rates of out-migration tend to have high population densities or high ratios of labor to arable land, 2) distance inhibits migration, 3) rural-urban migration is positively correlated with family income level, and 4) selectivity differences in socioeconomic status between migrants and nonmigrants often are grouped into development packages which might include irrigation, new varieties of seed, subsidized credit, increased extension, and improved marketing arrangements. The migration impacts of some of these efforts are described: 1) land reform usually is expected to slow rural out-migration because it normally increases labor utilization in rural areas, but this is a limited effect, 2) migration effects of the Green Revolution technology are mainly in rural-rural migration, and 3) agricultural mechanization may stimulate rural-urban migration in the long run. Development of rural social services migh have various effects on rural-urban migration. Better rural education, which improves the chances of urban employment, will stimulate rural-urban migration, while successful rural family planning programs will have a negative effect in the long run as there will be reduced population pressure on arable land. Better rural health services might reduce the incentive for rural-urban migration as well. It is suggested that governments reconsider policies which rely on rural development to curb rural-urban migration and alleviate problems of urban poverty and underemployment.     

Consequences of Population Change for Retail/Wholesale Sector Employment in the Nonmetropolitan Great Plains: 1950–19961

Abstract A rural economic restructuring perspective and central place theory are used to assess the impact of population change on retail/wholesale sector employment for the 438 nonmetropolitan counties of the Great Plains region from 1950 to 1990. Findings indicate that county level population declined for every decade except the 1970 turnaround decade, and the greatest losses were in completely rural nonadjacent counties. The civilian labor force declined for all but the 1970 decade, when there was a substantial increase due to increased nonmetro manufacturing and the baby boom cohorts reaching labor force age. Retail/wholesale labor force increased in every decade except the 1980s. However, regression analysis found a positive and highly significant relationship between population change and retail/wholesale employment change. For this region, population decline is a major contributor to decline in the retail/wholesale employment sector at the county level. Preliminary data from the 1990–1996 period indicate a population and labor force rebound from the 1980s. However, as in the 1980s, gains are most likely concentrated in a small number of mainly urban nonadjacent counties.     

Evaluating a basic-needs strategy and population policies: the BACHUE approach

The BACHUE model, a dynamic simulation technique developed within the International Labour Organization's World Employment Program, has been applied to the Philippines. The model simulates behavior and consequences in a number of key areas: fertility, marriage, migration, savings and expenditure, and labor force participation for households and a macro-model for demand, ouput, employment, and income. The design and development of the model are discussed in detail. The model was run for a series of 13 experiments ranging from nationlization of modern sectors, increasing self-employment, movement toward labor-intensive techniques, changes in growth rates of various sectors, and a reduction in fertility by 2% over 1976-1985, an increase over the 1% assumed in the base run. Runs R-2 to R-11 all showed that a change in basic needs is associated with significant declines in fertility, largely because of increasing education and decreasing mortality. Better economic conditions in rural areas also reduced migration. R-13 which examined the effects of a family planning program of moderate size on ultimate fertility, showed that even by year 2000 the effects were small. The population is reduced 5% over the run which assumes negative income tax and government subsidies to poor families but the gain in income per adult is less than 4%. Any real improvement in income as the result of family planning will take 40-50 years to achieve. Economic incentives, on the other hand, have much faster demographic results. The models also show that rural-urban migration is responsive to policy changes. Planners are cautioned that the model is not a picture of the entire range of human behavior but is an adjunct for use in analyzing interaction between policies.     

Personality and labor force participation across the life course: A longitudinal study of women's careers

The influences on and consequences of women's labor force experience are examined using data from members of the Berkeley longitudinal studies born between 1920 and 1929. In adolescence, these women were overwhelmingly oriented toward marriage and family rather than career, yet more than two-thirds eventually spent substantial time in the paid labor force. Consistent labor force participation was lower for women who had been attractive, outgoing, feminine, self-confident, and status seeking in their high school years. High labor force participation, however, was associated with increases in self-confidence, status seeking, assertiveness, and intellectual investment between adolescence and later adulthood. The demographic correlates of labor force participation changed over the life course: as family responsibilities diminished in the later middle years, both family composition and husband's occupational status decreased in importance, while the importance of a woman's own education level and her husband's expected retirement income increased.     

American Indian migration and economic opportunities

This article examines interstate migration and labor force participation among White, American Indian, and intermarried Indian/White couples in the US. The results show that endogamous American Indian couples are much less likely to change states of residence than are the other 2 groups of couples. The effect of interstate migration on labor force participation does not vary across the 3 groups of couples. The implications of these results for the assimilation and internal colonial models of race relations and for federal Indian policy are discussed     

The participation of women in the labour force of Latin America: fertility and other factors

The level of labor force participation among Latin American women, when compared with participation rates for other countries, is the lowest in the world. Only 20% or less of women 10 years of age and older are economically active. This level did not change much between 1950 and 1970. Few women work in agriculture. The following factors are considered for their effect on labor force participation of urban women: marital status, education, income, and the structure and stage of development of the society. Married women have a low participation rate. More highly educated women are more likely to work, but there must be demand for their work services. As the economy of various countries has progressed, female participation in domestic services has decreased, in industry has remained constant between 1960 and 1970, and in social services has expanded. It is concluded that work participation for married women will only increase with the following changes: 1) improved educational opportunities for women; 2) structural change and modernization in the economy; and 3) reduced family fertility. Changes in the first 2 factors are more important than reduced fertility. Since 1960, only Chile and Costa Rica have had a 25% decline in fertility rates.     

Income expectations,rural-urban migration and employment in Africa

This article develops a theoretical framework explaining the influence of economic conditions on rural-urban migration in tropical Africa. The model explains the continued process of migration despite high levels of urban unemployment. A lengthy discussion is devoted to short-, intermediate-, and long-term policies for relieving the urban unemployment problem. It is argued that efforts must be made to reduce the differences between the expectation of urban income and real rural income. No one single policy will slow rural-to-urban migration. The author suggests policies that would eliminate factor-price distortions, restrain urban wages, redirect development toward concentrated and comprehensive programs of rural development, resettle and repatriate unemployed urban migrants, and establish capital-goods industries. The capital-goods industries would develop labor-intensive technologies for agriculture and industry. The theoretical model assumes that migrants make decisions about moving on the basis of an expected income and the expectation of an urban job. It is argued that the urban-rural income differences and the probability of securing an urban job determine the rate and extent of rural-urban migration in Africa. If the migrant has a low probability of finding regular wage employment in the short term, but expects the probability to increase over time, the migrant would make a rational decision to migrate. Policies that operate solely on urban labor demand are considered unlikely to reduce urban unemployment. This model better estimates the shadow prices of rural labor.     

Labor Migration,Remittances and Household Income: A Comparison between Filipino and Filipina Overseas Workers1

The major purpose of the research is to examine gender differences in patterns of labor market activity, economic behavior and economic outcomes among labor migrants. While focusing on Filipina and Filipino overseas workers, the article addresses the following questions: whether and to what extent earnings and remittances of overseas workers differ by gender; and whether and to what extent the gender of overseas workers differentially affects household income in the Philippines. Data for the analysis were obtained from the Survey of Households and Children of Overseas Workers (a representative sample of households drawn in 1999–2000 from four major “labor sending” areas in the Philippines). The analysis focuses on 1,128 households with overseas workers. The findings reveal that men and women are likely to take different jobs and to migrate to different destinations. The analysis also reveals that many more women were unemployed prior to migration and that the earnings of women are, on average, lower than those of men, even after controlling for variations in occupational distributions, country of destination, and sociodemographic attributes. Contrary to popular belief, men send more money back home than do women, even when taking into consideration earnings differentials between the genders. Further analysis demonstrates that income of households with men working overseas is significantly higher than income of households with women working overseas and that this difference can be fully attributed to the earnings disparities and to differences in amount of remittances sent home by overseas workers. The results suggest that gender inequal‐     

Market and Direct Allocation of Labor Through Migration*

Recent research suggests that the relationship between migration and labor allocation has changed in two ways: (1) fewer migrations are job-related; and (2) more of the remaining job-related migrations are job transfers instead of purely market-induced mobility. Data from the 1973–77 U.S. Annual Housing Surveys are used to compare characteristics of market-induced and job-transfer migrants/Both forms of migration occur among all income, education, and age groups. However, the income attainment processes for these migrants suggest that relocations are overrepresented among those primary jobs described by dual labor market theory. Since many of the benefits of primary jobs are age-related, both the increasing frequency of occupational relocations and weakening of the American economic position suggest that the benefits expected by those relocated may be difficult to provide.     

Occupational Destinations and Economic Mobility of Filipino Overseas Workers1

This study examines employment and occupational shifts experienced by Filipino overseas contract workers in the transition from country of origin to country of destination and examines the impact of labor migration on economic conditions and standard of living of the families left behind. Data for the analyses were obtained from a representative sample of 2,346 households drawn from four primary sending areas in the Philippines. The analyses focus on characteristics of the households and of the household members employed overseas. The findings reveal that a considerable number of overseas workers (both men and women) were unemployed prior to migration and that the overwhelming majority of these workers were recruited to fill low‐status (manual and service) occupations in the host country. The analysis demonstrates that the odds for Filipino overseas workers to be employed in low‐status occupations were extremely high, net of human capital characteristics, net of the occupations they held in the Philippines, and net of country of destination. Further analysis reveals that overseas employment is associated with a substantial increase in earnings (five‐fold for men and four‐fold for women). Comparison between households with and without overseas workers reveals that, net of household characteristics, the flows of income earned abroad are used to purchase household goods to improve standard of living. These findings provide firm support to expectations derived from the household theory of migration according to which labor migration is a strategy adopted by the household unit to allocate family resources rationally to increase the flows of income in order to raise the family standard of living.     

The return of international labour migrants in the ESCAP Region

The social phenomenon of massive temporary international labor migration from the ESCAP region has emerged extremely rapidly. Within 10 years, the number of persons from ESCAP countries grew from a negligible one to 3.5 million. Related research and government policies have lagged behind this latest surge in migration. Most research conducted has been small-scale and lacks an analytical or theoretical framework. Policy formulation for temporary labor migration is difficult because most of the rapid growth in the industry has occurred as a result of private efforts, with a minimum of government intervention. It is now difficult, for the government to provide effective regulations or measures to stimulate and assist the process. Regulations on compulsory remittances or overseas minimum wages have proved to be unrealistic and, if not rescinded, are routinely circumvented. The most effective policies to assist return migrants may not be those which are intended to do so, but those which control the earlier stages of the migration process, such as recruitment, working conditions, and banking arrangements. The most valuable policies may also include those affecting education, training, employment, and general socioeconomic growth. Governments are recommended to provide social services for migrants and their families who are experiencing problems, and to institute community programs in areas with a large number of labor migrants. Governmental efforts to promote forms of labor migration beneficial to the workers would be valuable and should include measures to identify overseas labor markets for employing its nationals, government ot government labor contracts, and government participation in joint-venture projects. International migration should be analyzed in the context of theories and social change in order for governments to formulate effective measures for the reintegration of returning workers. Labor migration on the current scale has many social implications for the sending countries; relationships between employers and employees, the government and private sectors, and white and blue collar workers are affected. Social change and technological innovation will become more rapid, women's status and family roles will change markedly, and behavior is likely to become less conformist and more individualistic.     

Global Changes and Gendered Responses: The Feminization of Migration From Georgia

While frequently discussed, the feminization of migration remains among the least understood trends in migration literature. Existing research links feminization of migration to socioeconomic change in migrant origin countries, changes in destination‐country labor markets, structural factors, and changing social attitudes. However, questions of how the feminization of migration begins and how it becomes socially institutionalized remain largely unanswered. Having experienced a recent, dramatic increase in female migration, Georgia provides an excellent case to study the emergence of women's labor migration. Our findings highlight the importance of human capital, increasing divorce rates, and an absence of local economic opportunities in motivating increasing numbers of women to migrate. Additionally, changing destination patterns and shifts in labor‐market demand toward feminized occupations act as key initial conditions enabling the growth of women's migration. As migration is feminized, cultural beliefs stigmatizing female migrants can be renegotiated to frame women's migration within normative gender approaches, providing pathways for cultural maintenance. In the early stages of the feminization of migration, we find the initial attempts to reframe migration are powerful; they can challenge, or at least delay, the expansion of women's autonomy that is often associated with migration.     

REAL WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT UNCERTAINTY AND THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION DECISIONS OF MARRIED WOMEN

This paper argues that an important factor in a married woman's decision to enter the labor force is the degree of uncertainty associated with expectations offuture wages and (husband's) income, and that high levels of uncertainty during the 1970s may have contributed substantially to the growth in participation in that decade. We apply a model of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to aggregate time series data to measure the level of uncertainty in each period. Our estimates support our hypothesis that the level of uncertainty is an important determinant of labor force participation for married women.     

New Color Lines: Racial/Ethnic Inequality in Earnings among College‐Educated Men

Using the 2003 National Survey of College Graduates, this study examined four perspectives on new color lines in America—white–nonwhite, black–nonblack, tri‐racial, and blurred—among college‐educated white, black, Hispanic, and Asian men. Findings show that the color lines have not been consistently drawn but vary by nativity and migration status. Among the native born, the color line for earnings cuts mainly across white and nonwhite when field of study and Carnegie classification are controlled for in addition to other covariates. On the other hand, among members of the 1.5 generation, who obtained both their high school and highest degrees in the United States, the lines are most salient between black and nonblack. Among first‐generation immigrants, who completed all their education in a foreign country, and 1.25‐generation immigrants, who obtained their high school diploma in a foreign country but earned their highest degree in the United States, there is a gradation of the color line with whites at the top and blacks at the bottom. Despite these mixed results, blacks fall consistently at the bottom of the racial hierarchy and whites at the top, regardless of nativity and migration status. Implications of the findings are discussed.