Comparison of the Polar Decision Rules for Various Types of Distributions

We focus on the dichotomous choice model, which goes back as far as Condorcet (1785; Essai sur l'application de l'analyse a la probabilité des décisions rendues a la pluralité des voix, Paris). A group of experts is required to select one of two alternatives, of which exactly one is regarded as correct. The alternatives may be related to a wide variety of areas. A decision rule translates the individual opinions of the members into a group decision. A decision rule is optimal if it maximizes the probability of the group to make a correct choice. In this paper we assume the correctness probabilities of the experts to be independent random variables, selected from some given distribution. Moreover, the ranking of the members in the team is (at least partly) known. Thus, one can follow rules based on this ranking. The polar different rules are the expert and the majority rules. The probabilities of the two polar rules being optimal were compared in a series of papers. The main purpose of this paper is to outline the results, providing exact formulas or estimates for these probabilities. We consider a variety of distributions and show that for all of these distributions the asymptotic behaviour of the probabilities of the two polar rules follows the same patterns.     

Are middle schoolers with diverse friends liked,disliked, or unnoticed - and by whom?

Having cross-ethnic friends in early adolescence is associated with more positive intergroup attitudes, but little is known about the social signaling function of the diversity of friends. The current study examined how the ethnic diversity of students’ friends in seventh grade is related to their social status (e.g., acceptance, rejection, and social impact) by eighth grade in multi-ethnic schools. It is hypothesized that friend diversity is (a) related to higher social status among ethnic out-group peers as it signals inclusiveness, but (b) related to lower in-group social status as diversity of friends may threaten the ethnic in-group. Utilizing a longitudinal sample of ethnically diverse youth (n = 4653) from 26 middle schools, the study capitalizes on outgoing friendship nominations in seventh grade and incoming acceptance and rejection nominations in eighth grade, while controlling for overall social status in grade seven. A novel index was used to calculate the diversity of youth's friend groups, and precise coding was done to retain biracial youth in the analytic sample. Results showed that having diverse friends was related to higher visibility (i.e., social impact) and greater acceptance from ethnic out-group members. In contrast, adolescents with diverse friend groups were less visible and less accepted by their in-group. Diversity of friends was not associated with out-group or in-group rejection. Findings highlight the importance of understanding how the composition of friend groups may signal intergroup attitudes and in-group solidarity in ways that have social status trade-offs among out- and in-group members.     

It Is Not Always Easy to Sit on Your Mouth

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the use of small groups in an after-school tutoring program for children, ages 5 to 12. Five group work principles are emphasized: (1) beginning where the group members are and drawing upon their interests; (2) enhancing mutual aid among group members; (3) taking the stages of group development into consideration when planning activities; (4) using the leader's role in ways that encourage and are helpful to group members; and (5) believing that members have something valuable to contribute to the group. Incorporation of group work principles into academic enrichment programs, rather than reliance solely on one-to-one tutoring, is urged.     

A Comparison of Majority-race Children With and Without a Minority-race Friend

Majority‐race (black or white) ¹ elementary school children with and without a minority friend (black or white) in their classroom were compared on measures of social, behavioral, and affective characteristics. Analyses focused on 260 4th through 6th grade students who were racial majorities in their classrooms and had at least one reciprocated friendship in the classroom‐based peer group. Overall, the results were consistent with the scenario that majority children with minority friends are high status, prosocial, and socially satisfied members of the peer group, compared to majority children without a cross‐race friendship, although race and gender differences were observed. In contrast, class‐level characteristics (e.g. class size, the proportion of participating children in each classroom of the majority race, and the number of minority‐race children in the classroom) were not predictive of whether a majority child had a cross‐race friendship or not. Implications for the current status of black– white relations among our youth were discussed.     

The Diversification Theorem Restated: Risk-pooling Without Assignment of Probabilities

Bayesian decision theory assumes that agents making choices assign subjective probabilities to outcomes, even in cases where information on probabilities is obviously absent. Here we show that agents that presume that they are equal risks can share risks mutually beneficially, even if the probabilities of losses are unpredictable or genuinely uncertain. We show also that different risk aversions among pool members do not exclude mutually beneficial loss sharing at uncertainty. Sharing when individuals’ losses differ in probabilities or in amount may still make individuals better off. Our findings are related to the theory of the insurance firm, to the management of development risks, and to the theory of justice.JEL Classification: D8, G22, L10, L30     

On arbitration schemes for a wealth distribution problem

This paper develops an arbitration scheme for resolving a distribution of wealth problem by applying Nash's assumptions to marginal rather than to total utilities. The problem considered is that of distributing a fixed amount of wealth between two claimants, and the paper compares properties of this problem's Nash solution with those of the marginal utility solution. The Nash solution is shown to emphasize application of symmetry considerations to the status quo ante, the marginal utility solution their application to the players' post arbitration positions (as measured by functions that fully describe the players' utilities but that are independent of positive linear transformations). It is argued that while the Nash assumptions are appropriate for many arbitration problems in which a solution reflects the players' status quo ante positions, the marginal utility assumptions are useful when it is desired that a solution attempt to minimize post-arbitration differences between the players' positions. The latter seems to be preferable in contexts where an arbitrator weights the solution's effects on out-comes more heavily than he weights considerations of the status quo ante. Examples are situations such as those involving income redistribution, where attempts to reduce inequality may guide the redistribution decisions. The effects on each type of solution of changes in the status quo ante are also investigated and related to the risk preference properties of the players' utilities.     

Status quo bias in decision making

Most real decisions, unlike those of economics texts, have a status quo alternative—that is, doing nothing or maintaining one's current or previous decision. A series of decision-making experiments shows that individuals disproportionately stick with the status quo. Data on the selections of health plans and retirement programs by faculty members reveal that the status quo bias is substantial in important real decisions. Economics, psychology, and decision theory provide possible explanations for this bias. Applications are discussed ranging from marketing techniques, to industrial organization, to the advance of science.     

Risk Aversion when Gains are Likely and Unlikely: Evidence from a Natural Experiment with Large Stakes

In the television show Deal or No Deal a contestant is endowed with a sealed box, which potentially contains a large monetary prize. In the course of the show the contestant learns more information about the distribution of possible monetary prizes inside her box. Consider two groups of contestants, who learned that the chances of their boxes containing a large prize are 20% and 80% correspondingly. Contestants in both groups receive qualitatively similar price offers for selling the content of their boxes. If contestants are less risk averse when facing unlikely gains, the price offer is likely to be more frequently rejected in the first group than in the second group. However, the fraction of rejections is virtually identical across two groups. Thus, contestants appear to have identical risk attitudes over (large) gains of low and high probability.      

A Mile‐Wide Gap: The Evolution of Hispanic Political Emergence in the Deep South*

Objective. Prior to the 1990s, the size of the Hispanic population in the Deep South was negligible. Since that time, states in this region have experienced an explosive growth in members of this ethnic group. Methods. Georgia and the Carolinas are among five states that maintain registration and turnout files by ethnicity. We make use of these political data in conjunction with demographic information from the Census to create a snapshot of Hispanic political emergence in the southeast. Results. A sizable gap exists between the size of the Hispanic population in the southeast and levels of political participation on the part of Latinos. Much of the explanation for this observation centers on the fact that the bulk of recent migration to the region has been by Hispanics who are not U.S. citizens. Participation rates among Hispanic citizens, however, were also found to lag behind those of other racial groups in the region. Conclusions. Although it is likely that Hispanics will become a sizable political force in the Deep South, it should be noted that the gulf between latent political influence and actual political power may take quite some time to close.     

When Being Different Is Detrimental: Solo Status and the Performance of Women and Racial Minorities

Individuals experience solo status when they are the only members of their social category (e.g., gender or race) present in an otherwise homogenous group. Field studies and surveys indicate that members of socially disadvantaged groups, such as women and racial minorities, have more negative experiences as solos than do members of privileged groups, such as Whites and males (Kanter, 1977; Niemann & Dovidio, 1998). In this article, we review research showing that the public performance of women and African-Americans is more debilitated by solo status than that of Whites and males. We also show that this effect is exacerbated when negative stereotypes about the performer's social group seem relevant to their performance, and we discuss the contributing roles of lowered performance expectancies and feelings of group representativeness. We discuss how findings from social psychological research can be applied towards the goal of reducing the decrements typically associated with being the only member, or one of few members, of one's race and/or gender in the environment.     

Examining the Structure and Dynamics of Kinship Care Groups

ABSTRACT

In the fall of 2006, a self-administered Internet survey was made available to all kinship care group facilitators listed in the 2006 New York State Office for the Aging's directory for kinship care providers. The survey sought facilitators' views on the purpose and structural aspects of the groups and to understand whether and how mutual aid processes were occurring. A purposive sample of 16 participants (53% response rate) completed the online quantitative survey that included space for qualitative comments. Findings revealed that 75% of participants facilitated a kinship care group in the past 5 years, and they believed their group purposes primarily included support and growth. Additionally, participants reported that all mutual aid principles occurred in their groups, with the supportive mutual aid interventions occurring more frequently than the challenging ones. Finally, themes from open-ended responses included 1) an enhanced sense of solidarity developed among group members, 2) the importance of facilitators' show of compassion for group members, and 3) facilitators' need to have a working knowledge of and ability to maximize available resources. Implications for serving the needs of kinship care providers through groups and other practices are addressed.     

A Home-based Description of Attachment in Physically Disabled Infants

This study investigated attachment security and behavior in 34 physically disabled infants and 26 non‐disabled infants by using convergent, categorical (secure, avoidant and ambivalent) and continuous (Attachment Behavior Q‐Set) measures of the relationship, based on the same set of home observations. Proportions of attachment classifications were not different for disabled and non‐disabled infants, but insecure infants in the disabled group scored consistently lower on the AQS security score than non‐disabled insecure infants. This result suggests that while proportions of attachment classifications may not vary as a function of infant status, insecure disabled infants are more insecure than insecure non‐disabled infants. An analysis of 5 behavioral dimensions of the AQS showed that secure infants emitted the same kinds of attachment behaviors without regard for infant status. Insecure disabled infants, however, showed lower levels of secure base behavior and physical contact with mother than their non‐disabled counterparts, and showed a marginal tendency to fuss more as well. Discussion focuses on the potential benefits of using convergent, categorical and continuous measures of attachment in the study of both typical and atypical groups of infants.     

Guaranteed Renewability with Group Insurance

This paper investigates a multiple-period level premium insurance policy equilibrium in a model in which loss probabilities increase for a fixed time period for a set of persons buying insurance in a group. We show that a level-premium sequence which induces risk averse persons to become and remain members of the group exists. We also show that the availability of the Medicare program can prevent the emergence of optimal level-premium private group insurance, but that a system of bonuses for remaining in the group can permit optimality to be retained.     

The Importance of the Peer Group in the Israeli Kibbutz for Adult Attachment Style

This research was presented at the 2005 biennial meeting of the Society for Research in Child Development in Atlanta, Georgia. The study is based on Yona Weiss's Ph.D. dissertation at the Smith College School for Social Work, directed by Robert Shilkret. We thank Joan Berzoff and Joyce Everett, members of the dissertation committee and all the adults from the kibbutzim who participated in the research. In this study we investigated attachment styles of kibbutz‐raised adults as related to their childhood experiences (392 adults from 50 kibbutzim). Various instruments were used to assess parental and group relations in childhood, adult attachment style, and adult attachment to groups. We found that there were similar distributions of attachment styles among those participants from familial and communal sleeping arrangements. Caring parents and peer groups were associated with secure adult attachment; further, caring peer groups were associated less frequently with insecure styles than less caring peer groups were. Caring peer groups partly compensated for less adequate care by parents. Higher overprotection by the peer group was associated with later social anxiety/ambivalence and personal preoccupation. We raise the question of how the child peer‐group supports or harms adult attachment style.     

Paying to improve your chances: Gambling or insurance?

Will a more risk-averse individual spend more or less to improve probabilities, say on marketing efforts that enhance the chance of a sale? For any two payoffs and starting probabilities, the answer is unfortunately indeterminate. However, interpreting gambling as increasing small chances of good outcomes and insurance as reducing small chances of bad outcomes, the more risk-averse individual will pay less (more) to gamble (insure). We find a critical switching probability that depends on the individuals and outcomes involved. If the good outcome is less (more) likely than this critical value, the expenditures represent gambling (insurance).     

Examining the Association Between Resilience and Risk Behaviors Among South Asian Minority Students in Hong Kong: A Quantitative Study

The relationship between risk behaviors and resilience among South Asian minority youth identifying themselves as Pakistani, Indian, Pakistani-Hong Konger, or Indian-Hong Konger (N?=?405) in a Hong Kong school setting was investigated using hierarchical linear regression analysis. Lower neighborhood disorganization, higher neighborhood characteristics, and higher individual resilience predicted lower likelihood of substance use in all ethnic groups. Stronger relationship with caregivers was associated with lower levels of substance use in all ethnic groups except for Pakistani-Hong Kongers (p?>?.05). Stronger multigroup ethnic identity predicted lower likelihood of substance use in Indians (p?=?.021) and Indian-Hong Kongers (p?=?.039). Resilience-based research, practical, and social policy implications are discussed.     

Subjective expected utility theory revisited: A reductio ad absurdum paradox

A paradox is posed and analyzed in which people reverse their preferences for information on probabilities versus prizes once the range of the unknown probabilities is sufficiently narrowed. This reversal is shown to be incompatible with both objective expected utility (EU) as well as subjective versions in which the same probability transformation applies to all random variables. Experimental data are presented showing that the reversals occur with small, medium and large payoffs.The present paradox is compared with those of Allais and Ellsberg, and found to differ in substantive ways. It raises further questions about the normative status of expected utility theory, especially its treatment of probability and value. The paradox specifically calls into question EU's substitution and compound probability axioms.     

Security level,potential level,expected utility: A three-criteria decision model under risk

Among the violations of expected utility (E.U.) theory which have been observed by experimenters, the violations of its independence axiom is, by far, the most common. It seems that, in many cases, these inconsistencies can be ascribed to the desire for security - called the security factor by L. Lopes (1986) - which makes people attach special importance to the worst outcomes of risky decisions as well as to the sole outcomes of riskless decisions (certainty effect). J.-Y. Jaffray (1988) has proposed a model which generalizes E.U. theory by taking into account this factor and is then able to account for certain violations. However, especially in experiments on choice involving prospective losses, violations of the von Neumann-Morgenstern independence axiom cannot be explained by the security factor alone and have to be partially ascribed to the potential factor (L. Lopes, 1986) which reflects heightened attention to the best outcomes of decisions, especially when the best outcome is the status quo. In this paper, we construct an axiomatic model for subjects taking into account simultaneously or alternatively the security factor and the potential factor. For this, as in Jaffray's model, it has been necessary to weaken not only the standard independence axiom but also the continuity axiom and, in the same time, to reinforce the dominance axiom. In the resulting model, choices are partially determined by the mere comparison of the (security level, potential level) (i.e. the (worst outcome, best outcome)) pairs offered, and completed by the maximization of an affine function of the expected utility, the coefficients of which depend on both the security level and potential level.In this model, a decision maker who (i) has constant marginal utility for money, (ii) is sensitive to the security factor alone in the domain of gains, (iii) is sensitive to the potential factor alone in the domain of losses, behaves as a risk averter for gains and a risk seeker for losses.     

Animal suffering in New Zealand: Can science make a difference?

Abstract

The main influences in the regulation of animal welfare policy in New Zealand are discussed. Animal welfare organizations on the one hand are intent on improving conditions for animals, whereas government regulatory bodies are more concerned with preserving the status quo. Both types of organizations have allies in academia. Government agencies are largely informed through research from the ‘mandated’ field of Animal Welfare Science, which is characterized by a positivistic framework that tends to support the status quo. Animal Welfare Science can be contrasted with the emerging interdisciplinary field of Human Animal Studies, which continues the tradition of critical theory that questions the positivistic basis of the animal welfare establishment. We conclude that while genuine science, defined as all rational and theoretically informed discourse, could make a difference to animals, the mandated field of Animal Welfare Science serves more to entrench animal suffering than to prevent it.     

Postretirement work and volunteering by poverty groups informed by role theory

This study uses role theory to examine the association between postretirement work and volunteering among retirees and to determine whether this association varies across poverty status. Data came from the 2012 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). The sample was restricted to respondents of older retirees (N = 6,619). We found that postretirement work positively influenced volunteering. However, poverty can be a risk factor of volunteering among older retirees. The positive effect of post-retirement work was found to be more significant in the near-poverty group. We provide an empirical foundation to help inform volunteer programs for retirees.