How Does Separability Affect The Desirability Of Referendum Election Outcomes?

Recent research has shown that in referendum elections, the presence of interdependence within voter preferences can lead to election outcomes that are undesirable and even paradoxical. However, most of the examples leading to these undesirable outcomes involve contrived voting situations that would be unlikely to occur in actual elections. In this paper, we use computer simulations to investigate the desirability of referendum election outcomes. We show that highly undesirable election outcomes occur not only in contrived examples, but also in randomly generated elections. Our data suggest that the presence of interdependent preferences significantly increases the likelihood of such undesirable outcomes, and that certain alternative voting methods, such as sequential voting and setwise aggregation, hold the potential to produce outcomes that more accurately reflect the will of the electorate.     

The potential of iterative voting to solve the separability problem in referendum elections

In referendum elections, voters are often required to register simultaneous votes on multiple proposals. The separability problem occurs when a voter’s preferred outcome on one proposal depends on the outcomes of other proposals. This type of interdependence can lead to unsatisfactory or even paradoxical election outcomes, such as a winning outcome that is the last choice of every voter. Here we propose an iterative voting scheme that allows voters to revise their voting strategies based on the outcomes of previous iterations. Using a robust computer simulation, we investigate the potential of this approach to solve the separability problem.     

The roll-off effect in judicial retention elections

Because of the absence of powerful traditional voting cues and the unusual nature and format of uncontested judicial retention elections, a large number of voters deliberately fail to cost ballots in retention elections. Filling a void in the study of retention elections, this study empirically examines the voter roll-off in 1,864 retention elections for major trial court judges for the period 1964–1984. The mean roll-off for these elections was 36.2%. Voter roll-off was found to be positively related to district size and number of counties in a judicial district. These trial court retention elections exhibit mixed relationships for different types of elections. Although in presidential and nonpresidential elections there is clear surge and decline in voter turnout, there is no corresponding surge and decline in roll-off. However, close retention elections have less roll-off than nonclose elections.     

Voting by Mail: Turnout and Institutional Reform in Oregon*

Objectives. I test the impact of Oregon's vote‐by‐mail system on voter turnout. Methods. To determine the impact, I create a cross‐sectional time‐series regression model of state turnout in presidential elections from 1980 to 2004 and mid‐term elections from 1982 to 2006. Results. I find that Oregon's turnout increases by around 10 percentage points of registered voters in both presidential and mid‐term elections due to the voting‐by‐mail reform. Conclusions. These results suggest that one of the reasons that the United States has comparatively lower turnout is due to its more onerous voting procedures.     

Political Cynicism and the Mobilization of Black Voters*

Objective. This article analyzes National Election Study data from the 1996 and 2000 elections in order to explain the increased turnout among blacks in recent presidential elections. Methods. A bivariate analysis of registration and voter turnout across the races is conducted, followed by three probit models of voter turnout, including various demographic and attitudinal variables. Results. Our findings show that more blacks were registered to vote, and more registered blacks actually voted in 2000 than in 1996. We also found that political cynicism, or distrust, appears to increase the propensity of blacks to vote, in direct contrast to the behavior of white respondents. Inefficacy has less effect on black turnout, although it depresses turnout among whites. Conclusions. These findings underscore an important difference between racial groups with regard to the effect of attitudinal factors on voter turnout. Political cynicism can serve to mobilize blacks, while feelings of internal and external inefficacy had little effect on black turnout in these elections.     

Government Program Usage and Political Voice*

Objectives. Despite the scope of U.S. social spending, we know little about cumulative program usage among individuals or how it may influence their political attitudes or behavior. This article examines program usage among citizens and probes the association of usage with program assessment and the likelihood of voting. Methods. We examine these issues using the 2005 Maxwell Poll, which uniquely asked respondents about both usage of 18 social programs as well as attitudes about such programs and rates of political involvement. Results. The data indicate that direct experience of social programs is fairly common and widespread across the population, but beneficiaries of programs differ in their assessments compared to nonbeneficiaries. Most significant, after controlling for various demographic factors, we find that the greater the number of universal programs citizens have used, the greater the likelihood that they vote; conversely, the greater the number of means‐tested programs they have used, the lower their likelihood of voting. Conclusion. Experiences of social programs may influence voter turnout and may help explain why young and less advantaged citizens vote less than older citizens. Trends in social provision may be fostering inequality of political voice, particularly among younger generations.     

Election Day Registration's Effect on U.S. Voter Turnout

Objective . Early voter registration deadlines make voting more difficult for many American citizens. In an attempt to facilitate voting, several U.S. states now permit registration on election day, at the height of the campaign. This article examines the turnout effects of adopting election day registration (EDR) and other smaller reductions in closing dates. Methods . Primarily using the Current Population Study (1972-1996), we estimate the turnout advantage of EDR for citizens having low, middle, and high socioeconomic status. Results . The elimination of closing dates, through EDR, is predicted to produce about a 7-percentage-point turnout boost in the average state. Those having a high school education and middle incomes are expected to see the largest turnout gains, with the less educated and poorer citizens doing almost as well. No evidence is found to link the implementation of EDR to subsequent changes in the electorate's partisan balance. Conclusions . Even the most dramatic easing of voter registration costs has a modest effect on the total number of voters and little impact on the long-standing skew toward greater representation of those having higher status in the voting electorate of the United States.     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

Municipal elections and community media

Local elections are held more often and more frequently than any other type in American politics and are more often the first stepping stone to higher election office. But the “lost world” of municipal governments still remains lost because of political scientists’ and media scholars’ preoccupation with national voting behavior and presidential “personality” contests. Fifty-nine mayoral elections from 1986 to 1998 in 15 rural New Mexico communities without TV stations are examined. When the powerful incumbency variable is eliminated, community journalism’s influence is positively correlated via newspaper endorsement and local radio advertising in predicting winners of local elections. This study also operationalizes from scientific measurement 19 other independent variables that have been identified in predicting the winners of municipal races.     

Black Voters,Black Candidates,and Social Issues: Does Party Identification Matter?*

Objective. Much is known about voting behavior generally; less is known about voting behavior of African Americans in particular due in part to the overwhelming support of black voters for Democratic candidates. However, some argue that black conservatism on social issues could lead to more Republican voting. Methods. We test this question with a set of data on black voting behavior in a 2004 congressional race where two black candidates ran against each other. We thus hold race of candidate constant and look at the influence of social issues and party identification on black vote choice. Results. We find evidence to suggest that evangelicalism and support for the war in Iraq is related to being Republican, but that Democratic Party identification plays the dominant role in black voter decision making. Conclusions. Black conservatism on at least certain social issues is real and has the potential to influence vote choice, but the influence of Democratic Party allegiance is still a very powerful cue for black voters.     

Black legislative politics: Examining the issue of voting rights in the post-Hurricane Katrina period

Following Hurricane Katrina, a significant number of black voters were displaced from the New Orleans metropolitan area. With the 2006 New Orleans municipal elections forthcoming, especially the mayoral election, a significant portion of displaced black voters were faced with being disenfranchised, which was a violation of their civil rights and posed a threat to black political leadership in the city. This article examines whether black legislators provided substantive representation to these voters during the post-Hurricane Katrina period. That is, did black legislators advocate a legislative agenda to facilitate access to the ballot for displaced black New Orleans voters? Using a multi-methodological approach, evidence is presented indicating that black legislators did provide substantive representation to black voters by introducing key voting rights bills and voting in a way that was responsive to black concerns which facilitated access to the ballot.     

Collateral Consequences of a Collateral Penalty: The Negative Effect of Felon Disenfranchisement Laws on the Political Participation of Nonfelons*

Objective. Felon disenfranchisement (FD) policies are said to not only prohibit (ex)felons from voting, but also reduce the political influence of particular groups that are most affected by FD laws. This study tests several hypotheses regarding the role of socialization on individual‐level political participation to examine the claims that nonfelons' probability of voting is reduced by strict FD laws. Methods. The study uses multilevel modeling and two separate individual‐level data sets of those registered to vote to examine the effect of FD laws on the probability of voting. Results. The findings demonstrate that strict FD laws reduce the probability of voting for blacks, but not whites, while the results are mixed for several other demographic groups. Conclusions. Beyond the direct removal of ex‐felons from the voter pool, FD policy can undermine the mechanism of political socialization, leading to potentially greater biases in the electoral arena than previously thought.     

Location of Public Goods and the Calculus of Voting: The Seattle Monorail Referendum*

Objectives. In this article we explore how the geographic location of a proposed public good on the ballot in a local referendum influences voting turnout. We argue that voters who live farther away from the good, and are thus likely to bear the cost of the good but have no access to it, would be more motivated to turn out in the election. Drawing on the cost‐orientation hypothesis, or negativity effect, “that people are more strongly motivated to avoid losses than to approach gains,” we expect these voters to derive higher expressive benefits from the act of voting relative to those of voters located closer to the good. Methods. We examine voting turnout in the 2002 referendum in the City of Seattle on the proposed construction of a monorail. We conduct our study at the precinct level using spatial tools of analysis. We evaluate the effect of accessibility on turnout by means of a curvilinear model that incorporates demographic and political variables. Results. We find that voting turnout is determined partly by accessibility. Turnout is higher in precincts located farther away from the monorail line than in precincts located relatively closer to the line. Partisanship conditions this effect. Conclusions. This study provides tentative support for linking voter turnout to the negativity effect via expressive benefits. Voters' location in relation to a public good may affect directly their political behavior by means of their perceived net gains or losses from the good.     

All Politics is Not Local: National Forces in State Abortion Initiatives

Objective. Although research suggests that national forces can play a role in local and state elections, most of this work has only recently begun to examine the potential role of national forces in state or local ballot initiative or referenda elections. Methods. Our research addresses this gap in the literature by exploring the influence of national forces, such as the timing of elections, Supreme Court rulings, the activities of interest groups, and public opinion, on state direct legislation elections. We incorporate national forces into the morality politics framework and derive specific hypotheses. We then test these hypotheses by conducting a multivariate analysis of county–level voting patterns across 16 abortion–related direct legislation elections. Results. Our results confirm most of the hypotheses derived from the morality politics framework, including those concerning the role of national forces. Conclusions. Voting patterns on abortion tend to be influenced by the presence of presidential elections, Supreme Court rulings, interest–group activity, public opinion, partisanship, college education, and conservative religious forces. We discuss the implications of our findings for research on elections, abortion policy, and morality politics.     

Cognitive dissonance and political attitudes: The case of Canada

While scholars accept that attitudes have an impact on behavior, cognitive dissonance theory asserts that behavior can, in turn, affect attitudes. The theory suggests attitudes may be transformed by the simple act of voting. Informed by dissonance theory and employing election study survey data from three Canadian federal elections, this article considers the impact of cognitive, affective, and behavioral factors on changes in party evaluations, arguing that elections serve as a significant stimulus for attitude change. Dissonance theory is found to be compatible with observed attitude changes between pre- and post-election questionnaires. Findings have implications for the study of attitude formation and change, the effects that campaigns and elections have upon voters, and survey design.     

Instability and Convergence Under Simple-Majority Rule: Results from Simulation of Committee Choice in Two-Dimensional Space

Nondeterministic models of collective choice posit convergence among the outcomes of simple-majority decisions. The object of this research is to estimate the extent of convergence of majority choice under different procedural conditions. The paper reports results from a computer simulation of simple-majority decision making by committees. Simulation experiments generate distributions of majority-adopted proposals in two-dimensional space. These represent nondeterministic outcomes of majority choice by committees. The proposal distributions provide data for a quantitative evaluation of committee-choice procedures in respect to outcome convergence. Experiments were run under general conditions, and under conditions that restrict committee choice to several game-theoretic solution sets. The findings are that, compared to distributions of voter ideal points, majority-adopted proposals confined to the solution sets demonstrate different degrees of convergence. Second, endogenous agenda formation is a more important obstacle to convergence than the inherent instability of simple-majority rule. Third, if members maximize preferences in respect to agenda formation, a committee choice that approximates the central tendency of the distribution of voter preferences is unlikely. The conclusion is that the most effective way to increase the convergence of majority choice is to restrict the role of individual preferences in agenda formation: identification of proposals to be voted up or down by a committee. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Link Between Voter Choice and Religious Identity in Contemporary Society: Bringing Classical Theory Back In*

Objectives. In this article, we analyze voter choice data from six U.S. presidential elections for evidence of religious identity and sociodemographic effects on voter choice. Methods. Voter choice is analyzed over the period 1980 to 2000 with multivariate statistical models. Results. A link is found between voter choice and religious identity, where the effect of religious identity on voter choice is contingent on location within the stratification order defined by race, class, and gender. The article proposes a theory to explain the contingent link between voter choice and religious identity; the theory is derived from classical sociology. Conclusion. In the United States, political behavior related to religious identity is contingent on the individual's location within the stratification order.     

Electoral Support for Community Growth Management Policy*

Objectives. This study seeks to explain the variation in voter support for growth management policy. Interest group theory of local politics and property rights is used as a theoretical framework to explore how competing pro‐growth and anti‐growth interests influence the level of electoral support at the ballot box. Methods. Survey data collected from local planning officials in Massachusetts are analyzed using a two‐stage Heckman selection model. Results. The results indicate that development competition has a negative effect and controversy over development a positive effect on the probability of a community placing growth management policy on the local ballot. The analysis further indicates that environmental interests and suburban communities have a positive influence on the percentage of votes cast in favor of conservation‐oriented growth management policy. Neighborhood‐based interests, on the other hand, have a negative influence on voter support. Conclusions. The findings suggest that compared to the normal legislative process, ballot‐box voting allows anti‐growth and localized interests the opportunity to craft proposals and then mobilize support for policy changes.     

Who is early voting? An individual level examination

Objective. Early voting has been suggested as one method of increasing voter turnout. Allowing voters to cast their ballots during a longer time period may ameliorate some barriers to participation that exist. However, the question of whether early voting mobilizes previous nonvoting registrants or simply makes voting easier for those who would have participated anyway remains largely unanswered. Methods. We test these questions through the use of an individual level survey of voters in one Tennessee county. Using logistic regression, we consider the impact of demographic and attitudinal factors on the propensity to vote on election day or to use early voting. Results. We find marked differences between nonvoters and voters of either type, but we find few significant differences between early voters and traditional voters. We find little support for a mobilization effect and some evidence suggests that early voting merely conveniences those who would have voted anyway.