Health Insurance and the Aging: Evidence From the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Seguro Popular</Emphasis> Program in Mexico

Aimed at covering the large fraction of workers in the informal sector without access to a social security program, the Mexican public health insurance program Seguro Popular began in 2002 and now reaches more than 50 million individuals. We estimate impacts of Seguro Popular for the population aged 50 and older on a set of indicators related to health care including utilization, diagnostic/preventive tests, and treatment conditional on being ill. Using the longitudinal Mexican Health and Aging Study over the period 2001–2012, we conduct before and after difference-in-difference matching impact estimators. Our results suggest large and important effects of the Program on utilization and diagnostic tests. We find overall smaller effects on the probability of being in treatment for individuals with chronic diseases, but these effects are concentrated in rural areas with relatively more health services versus rural areas with lower levels of health services. These results suggest that, to the extent that health services become more available in rural areas lacking services, effects of health insurance may increase.     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Interstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the United States: New Evidence From Administrative Records Data</Emphasis>

Declines in migration across labor markets have prompted concerns that the U.S. economy is becoming less dynamic. In this study, we examine the relationship between residential migration and employer-to-employer transitions in the United States, using both survey and administrative records data. We first note strong disagreement between the Current Population Survey (CPS) and other migration statistics on the timing and severity of any decline in U.S. interstate migration. Despite these divergent patterns for overall residential migration, we find consistent evidence of a substantial decline in economic migration between 2000 and 2010. We find that composition and the returns to migration have limited ability to explain recent changes in interstate migration.     

Two‐and‐a‐Half Cheers: A Review Essay on the International Migration Report 2002*

Amy Chua, World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability Surjit S. Bhalla, Imagine There's No Country: Poverty, Inequality, and Growth in the Era of Globalization John Firor and Judith Jacobsen, The Crowded Greenhouse: Population, Climate Change, and Creating a Sustainable World Joel Perlmann and Mary C. Waters (eds.), The New Race Question: How the Census Counts Multiracial Individuals     

Explaining Asia's “Missing Women”: A New Look at the Data

The fact that millions of females are “missing” in East Asia and South Asia has been attributed to cultural factors that support strong son preference in these countries. A widely disseminated paper by Emily Oster argues that a large part of this phenomenon can be attributed to excessively masculine sex ratios at birth resulting from maternal infection with hepatitis B. If her thesis is true, current policies to address this problem would need to be reframed to include biological factors in addition to cultural factors. The data show, however, that whether or not females “go missing” is determined by the existing sex composition of the family into which they are conceived. Girls with no older sisters have similar chances of survival as boys. However, girls conceived in families that already have a daughter experience steeply higher probabilities of being aborted or of dying in early childhood. This indicates that cultural factors still provide the overwhelming explanation for the “missing” females.     

Training the nation’s elites: National–private sector differences in Japanese university education

I examine the relationship between university prestige and socioeconomic achievement in Japan. I generate a set of hypotheses based on human capital and screening models of education, and test these using a 1995 cross-sectional dataset. I find that university prestige significantly improves socioeconomic achievement among male university graduates in Japan. I also find that national university graduates have higher rates of return to their university education, and are more likely to be employed in higher prestige occupations than are private university graduates. My findings lend support to the ‘elite’ view of investments in human capital proposed by Becker (1993), under which higher ability individuals (in this case national university graduates) have more to gain from university education than do lower ability individuals. I find little support for the screening model of education.     

Mexico–US Migration: Views from Both Sides of the Border

Migration to the United States increased sharply in the 1980s and 1990s, raising political concerns. The immigrant flow from Mexico, both authorized and unauthorized, was particularly large. Good data would con‐tribute to rational discussion of this politically charged issue, but data on immigration, particularly of the unauthorized, are notoriously poor. This article applies residual estimation techniques to data from the 1990 and 2000 population censuses of Mexico and the United States (Mexico‐born population) to quantify the intercensal migration flow, arguing that the reasons why unauthorized migrants might avoid enumeration in the United States would not adversely affect data from Mexico. Results suggest that the annual net flow of migrants aged 10 to 80 years from Mexico to the United States averaged between 324,000 and 440,000 between 1990 and 2000. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are quite robust (especially those using US data) to likely errors.     

“Demodystopias”: Prospects of Demographic Hell

Dystopian fiction, stories envisioning dire human futures, originated with the novels of H. G. Wells and others a century ago. “Demodystopias” are a subgenre of dystopias where the imagined futures derive from demographic change, taken perhaps to an extreme: the population explosion, aging and depopulation, mass migration, global epidemics, and the eugenic possibilities of new reproductive technologies. This essay traces the genealogy of demodystopias over the twentieth and early twenty‐first centuries. Their themes reflect the demographic issues of the day: fear of overpopulation in the “population bomb” era; later, threatened societal senescence or swamping by immigrants under ultra‐low fertility; new reproductive regimes under genetic engineering; and the geopolitics of demographic change. As with other dystopias, demodystopias seek to identify present‐day negative tendencies that might lead to a future theatrum diabolorum—and to pin responsibility for such an outcome on ourselves. Authors discussed include Margaret Atwood, Anthony Burgess, Günter Grass, Michel Houellebecq, José Saramago, Lionel Shriver, and Kurt Vonnegut.     

Longevity Among Hunter‐ Gatherers: A Cross‐Cultural Examination

Post‐reproductive longevity is a robust feature of human life and not only a recent phenomenon caused by improvements in sanitation, public health, and medical advances. We argue for an adaptive life span of 68‐78 years for modern Homo sapiens based on our analysis of mortality profiles obtained from small‐scale hunter‐gatherer and horticultural populations from around the world. We compare patterns of survivorship across the life span, rates of senescence, modal ages at adult death, and causes of death. We attempt to reconcile our results with those derived from paleodemographic studies that characterize prehistoric human lives as “nasty, brutish, and short,” and with observations of recent acculturation among contemporary subsistence populations. We integrate information on age‐specific dependency and resource production to help explain the adaptive utility of longevity in humans from an evolutionary perspective.     

The food "surplus": A staple illusion of economics; a cruel illusion for populations

Disjunction between market surpluses of food and worldwide nutritional shortfalls appears to be symptomatic of underlying vulnerabilities, raising questions about the sustainability of agricultural production.David F. Durham, J.D., is a member of the Board of Directors of Population-Environment BALANCE. Jim C. Fandrem, M.A., is a member of Board of Directors of Californians for Population Stabilization.     

‘Sent Down’ in China: Stratification challenged but not denied

Dramatic shocks to social systems can disrupt normal social processes such as life course sequences and socioeconomic attainment. Such shocks provide a rare opportunity for contrasting normal and extraordinary social processes and thus revealing social structures and processes that may otherwise be invisible. The current article focuses on the ‘sent-down’ generation in China of the 1960s and 1970s, many of whom were forcibly relocated to the countryside following middle or high school graduation to “learn from the peasants.” Although most of these young people eventually returned to urban areas, the experience was traumatic for at least some and disrupted normal life course developments and process of socioeconomic attainment for many. This is especially the case for those who stayed in the countryside for an extended period of time. Data from the Chinese General Social Survey indicate that both the formal and informal power of parents was unable to protect children from being sent down. Nevertheless, as the process matured, stratification forces reemerged in the ability of politically well-placed parents to facilitate the early return of their children. Despite some success in attaining college education and Communist Party membership for the sent-down generation, sent-down men report more unhappiness with life than their non-sent-down counterparts and sent-down men and women report much earlier retirement and withdrawal from the labor force than non-sent-down women. These findings collaborate and extend prior research on the sent-down generation and illustrate the lasting effects of both inequality and of attempts to change inequality.     

Emptying the Nest: Older Men in the United States, 1880–2000

Between 1880 and 2000, the percentage of married men 60 and older living only with their wives in empty nest households rose from 19 percent to 78 percent. Data drawn from the US census show that more than half of this transformation occurred in the 30‐year period from 1940 to 1970, bookended by moderate increases between 1880 and 1940 and very modest increases after 1970. Two literatures have presented demographic, cultural, and economic explanations for the decline in elderly co‐residence with their children, but none adequately accounts for a sharp change in the mid‐twentieth century. Both aggregate comparisons and multivariate analysis of factors influencing the living arrangements of elderly men suggest that economic advances for all age groups in the critical 30‐year period, along with trends in fertility and immigration, best explain the three‐stage shift that made the empty nest the dominant household form for older men by the beginning of the twenty‐first century.     

Development Challenges of the "New Europe"

European nations are undergoing rapid and fundamental changesin response to social, political and economic eventsthat are occurring both within and outside the region.These changes are far-reaching in scope and,ultimately, are expected to result in a redefinitionof ``Europe' and what it means to be ``European.'Using the author's extensively pre-tested Index ofSocial Progress (ISP), the research reported in thispaper: 1) identifies the major changes in socialdevelopment that have taken place in 36 European nationssince 1970; 2) contrasts Europe's recent socialdevelopment trends with those of other major world regions(including Asia, Africa, Latin and North America, andOceania); 3) using aggregate scores on the WeightedIndex of Social Progress (WISP), identifies Europe's``social leaders' (SLs), ``middle performing countries'(MPCs), identifies Europe's ``social leaders' (SLs),``middle performing countries' (MPCs), and ``sociallyleast developing countries' (SLDCs); 4) identifies themajor development challenges confronting Europe at theoutset of a new decade; and 5) provides baseline dataagainst which future developments in the region maybe assessed.     

"Having it Ally ": Popular Television (Post-)Feminism

This article analyzes the impact of the built environment on the narrative development of two contemporary television series, 24 (2001–2010) and Alias (2001–2006). The analysis begins with the primary sets used in 24 and Alias, paying particular attention to the ways that these sets establish the series within the genre of espionage dramas, and to the ways that they establish a particular set of gender relationships. This is followed by an examination of broader spatial concepts, showing how the two series negotiate the gendered boundaries between the domestic sphere and the professional sphere. By highlighting the connections between architecture, space, and gender in these series, this essay will demonstrate how the analysis of on-screen spaces can reveal the ideologies of individual media texts and the genres of which they are a part.