The Effects of Children's Schooling on Fertility Limitation

Many theories of fertility predict that mass education reduces fertility, but this effect may be produced in a variety of ways. In this paper, microdemographic data from a rural community in Nepal, in which the spread of mass education and fertility limitation is just beginning, are used to examine these links. The analyses contrast the influence of parents' and children's educational experiences of parents' fertility preferences and behaviour. The results indicate that children's schooling has a strong influence on both fertility preferences and behaviour. The effects of parental schooling are weaker, and also inconsistent in different models. These findings provide support for theories that link mass education to the onset of fertility limitation through children's schooling experience.     

Fertility Transitions and Schooling: From Micro- to Macro-Level Associations

Research on the schooling implications of fertility transitions often faces an aggregation problem: despite policy interest in macro-level outcomes, empirical studies usually focus on the micro-level effects of sibsize on schooling. This article proposes an aggregation framework for moving from micro- to macro-level associations between fertility and schooling. The proposed framework is an improvement over previous aggregation methods in that it considers concurrent changes in the effects of sibsize, socioeconomic context, and family structure. The framework is illustrated with data from six sub-Saharan countries. Possible extensions are discussed.     

女性人口文化程度与其生育水平的定量分析研究

本文对女性人口文化程度与其平均活产子女数、总和孩次递进率以及初婚年龄与其生育水平间的关系进行了较为全面而深入的定量分析, 并得到反映其相关程度的定量关系式, 从而揭示出女性人口文化程度对其生育水平所具有的重大影响。     

The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach

Population Research and Policy Review - We study the aggregate gap between intended and actual fertility in 19 European countries and the US based on a cohort approach. This complements prior...     

Fertility and desired fertility: Longitudinal evidence from Thailand

Summary The validity and usefulness of 'desired additional children' and 'ideal family size' as predictors of fertility are analysed in this paper on the basis of longitudinal survey data from Thailand. First, the extent of measurement error in these variables is considered, and it is concluded that the error variance and the true variance are of similar orders of magnitude. Secondly, the changes in attitudes subsequent to births and deaths of children are investigated. It is found that the number of additional children desired is decreased by births and increased by deaths, but less than would be expected if 'desired additional children' represented an unchanging target family size. 'Ideal family size' is almost unaffected by births and deaths. Thirdly, the contribution of attitudinal variables to behavioural models is examined. It is found that desired fertility is explained no better than fertility in a standard economic model. A birth function separating desired children from identifiable physiological factors as explanatory variables indicated that the former was just significant. A model of contraceptive acceptance also found desired fertility to be a significant determinant. Thus, desired fertility can be successfully integrated into behavioural models. But on the whole, its explanatory power was weak, and it was concluded that the independent use of this variable does not significantly improve on models which relate fertility to socio-economic variables directly.     

Mapping the Timing,Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil

Between 1960 and 2000, fertility fell sharply in Brazil, but this transition was unevenly distributed in space and time. Using Bayesian spatial statistical methods and microdata from five censuses, we develop and apply a procedure for fitting logistic curves to the fertility transitions in more than 500 small regions of Brazil over this 40‐year period. Doing so enables us to map the main features of the Brazilian fertility transition in considerable detail. We detect early declines in some regions of the country and document large differences between early and late transitions in regard to both the initial level of fertility and the speed of the transition. We also use our results to test hypotheses regarding changes in the level of development at the onset of the fertility transition and identify a temporary stall in the Brazilian transition that occurred in the late 1990s. A web site with project details is at http://schmert.net/BayesLogistic .     

The Long-Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size

Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the timing of the transition becomes. This finding has important implications for projection methodology, as well as for policies related to the consequences of long-term levels of population size.     

Examining the Reciprocity Between Perceived Discrimination and Health: A Longitudinal Perspective

Population Research and Policy Review - This study aims to fill two interrelated knowledge gaps in the extant literature on the association between perceived discrimination and health. First,...     

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes

This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of “sib size” – the number of “same-mother” siblings and “same-father” siblings – in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987–88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the co-existence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that children from larger families experience greater inequality between themselves and their siblings by sex and birth order. Because fathers have more children on average than mothers, the inequality between their children appears to be even greater than between mothers' children, particularly given the importance of fathers' role in the payment of school fees. The paper concludes that the greatest cost for children in Ghana of sustained high fertility is likely to be the reinforcement of traditional sex roles, largely a product of high fertility in the past.     

A Meta-Analysis of the Relationship Between Spirituality and Quality of Life

The relationship between spirituality and various dimensions of health and quality of life has been extensively examined during the past decade. Though several literature reviews have been conducted in an attempt to synthesize research findings pertaining to the relationship between spirituality and health, a meta-analysis of studies examining spirituality in relation to quality of life has not been identified. The present study was designed to: (a) determine whether there is empirical support for a relationship between spirituality and quality of life, (b) provide an estimate of the strength of this relationship, and (c) examine potential moderating variables affecting this relationship. The research design followed accepted methods for quantitative meta-synthesis. Potential moderating effects of several methodological differences and sample characteristics were examined using meta-analytic approaches with multivariate linear regression and analysis of variance. An extensive multidisciplinary literature search resulted in 3,040 published reports that were manually screened according to pre-established selection criteria. Subsequent to the selection process, 62 primary effect sizes from 51 studies were included in the final analysis. A random effects model of the bivariate correlation between spirituality and quality of life resulted in a moderate effect size (r = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.28–0.40), thereby providing support for the theoretical framework underlying the study wherein spirituality was depicted as a unique concept that stands in relationship to quality of life. Subsequent regression analyses indicated that differences among operational definitions of spirituality and quality of life were associated with the variability in estimates of the magnitude of the relationship (R² = 0.27). Other potential moderators, such as age, gender, ethnicity, religious affiliation and sampling method were examined but the findings pertaining to these variables were inconclusive because of limitations associated with the sample of primary studies. The implications of this study are mostly theoretical in nature and raise questions about the commonly assumed multidimensional conceptualization of quality of life.     

Adapting Fertility Exposure Analysis to the Study of Fertility Change

Fertility exposure analysis was developed recently by Hobcraft and Little in order to evaluate the relative importance of the various proximate determinants upon levels of current fertility. In the present paper we extend the analysis to the study of changes in fertility between two cross-sectional surveys. We show how to express fertility change as a product of terms which represent changes in the proximate determinants. The model of change is adapted to a log-linear framework, in which the proximate determinants on the one hand, and socio-economic variables such as education, on the other, are considered together. A few simplifications of the method are also suggested so that fewer demands are made on data. The model and its possible interpretations are illustrated with pairs of surveys from Pakistan and Mexico. In each pair, one survey was part of the WFS programme and the other was very similar but conducted five years later.     

我国生育率转变的微观经济分析

生育率转变,即生育率下降是经济、政治、社会、文化等多种因素综合作用的结果。影响我国生育率转变的微观经济因素主要有家庭收入、家庭经济类型、家庭消费模式和生活质量等。     

The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States

Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we describe the correspondence between intended family size and observed fertility for US men and women in the 1957–64 birth cohorts. Mean fertility intentions calculated from reports given in the mid‐20s modestly overstate completed fertility. But discrepancies between stated intent and actual fertility are common—the stated intent at age 24 (for both women and men) is more likely to miss than to match completed fertility. We focus on factors that predict which women and men will have fewer or more children than intended. Consistent with life‐course arguments, those unmarried, childless, or (for women) still in school at approximately age 24 were most likely to underachieve their intended parity (i.e., had fewer children than intended at age 24). We discuss how such discrepancies between intentions and behavior may cumulate to produce sizable cross‐group fertility differences.     

中国的生育率下降:世纪末回顾

本文对近半个世纪以来中国生育率的下降进行了简要总结和分析。通过与发展中地区,尤其是亚洲国家的对比,说明了中国生育率下降的特点;通过不同的生育率指标来刻画中国生育率下降过程的独特性;最后简要阐述了中国生育率下降的因素。     

我国流动儿童少年就学状况及比较分析

本文分析了我国几个大城市流动儿童少年的就学状况以及国家和地方政府对流动儿童入学的政策演变过程 ,并提出了对我国流动儿童少年就学的几点思考与意见。     

中国低生育水平下的生育意愿与生育行为差异研究

在国家实行全面两孩政策背景下,认清生育意愿与生育行为的差异,是把握中国未来人口形势变化的关键。文章利用2010年以来的四次全国性抽样调查原始数据,对中国育龄人群的生育意愿与生育行为的差异及影响因素进行分析。研究发现:中国目前意愿生育水平在1.82~1.88的区间范围内,其点估计值在1.86左右,已显著低于更替水平;越年轻的出生队列其生育意愿越低,中国未来的意愿生育水平可能会继续降低;育龄人群的意愿生育水平要显著高于其终身生育水平,且二者差异随年龄的减小呈递增趋势,中国未来生育水平存在进一步下降的可能性;没有生育政策限制下的终身生育水平仅为1.68,这可以作为生育政策调整对中国生育水平影响的上限。生育政策对当前育龄人群生育意愿与生育水平差异的贡献度在33%左右,全面两孩政策对中国生育水平的提升作用有限。     

关于影响生育水平的因素及稳定低生育水平的对策分析

20世纪90年代末以来,我国育龄妇女的总和生育率已在更替水平以下,这是我国长期实行人口政策和经济发展的结果;但由于我国城乡之间、地区之间经济发展不平衡,以及计划生育部门的管理机制等原因,要保持和稳定目前这种低生育水平是艰巨的。本文从影响生育水平的若干因素、我国目前出现低生育水平的原因以及稳定低生育水平的难度出发,对稳定低生育水平提出了一定的对策建议。     

The Significance of Demographic Triviality: Minority Status and Zodiacal Fertility Timing Among Chinese Malaysians

The hypothesis that minority status creates social tensions that affect fertility behaviour attracted much attention during the late 1960s and 1970s, but then disappeared after 1980. This sudden exit was due to a combination of methodological difficulties in distilling the independent effects of minority status from other socio-economic factors, weaknesses or ambiguities in the empirical record, and other difficulties. This paper examines a natural experiment that serendipitously by-passes more of these problems than has been heretofore possible – the attempt by Chinese in Malaysia to time births into the auspicious Year of the Dragon. A multivariate model shows that this unique fertility behaviour was more common in Malaysian districts with smaller proportions of Chinese, which suggests that minority status can directly affect ethnic identity. The results also highlight a paradoxical solution to a grander problem facing socio-demographic theory. Before we can posit that culture or values play an independent role in transitions to lower fertility, we should first trace a baseline definition of these values from the study of demographically trivial events.     

A Comparative Analysis of the Fertility of the Urban and Rural in China Since 2000

The different in the fertility of the rural and urban and future changing trend are very important questions to understand China’s population problem. This paper calculates the fertility of the urban and the rural since 2000 based on the statistical data and compares the fertility rate in the urban and the rural population since 2000. The finding shows that the TFR in the rural is less than 1.8 while the TFR in the urban is less than 1.3 and the difference is narrowing year by year. The fertility difference is mainly caused by the second child, generally speaking the second child fertility tend to increasing slightly while the first child fertility shows dramatic fluctuations because of the Chinese folk culture, the fertility fluctuation in the rural is much dramatic than that in the urban. The mean age at childbearing (MAC) has been delaying in both the rural and the urban areas in the decade.     

2000年以来中国城乡生育水平的比较分析

我国城乡生育水平、发展趋势及差异程度的对比研究对于人口发展问题意义重大。首先通过运算,得出了城乡总和生育率指标数值,呈现出2000年以来十年间城乡生育状况,然后对这些数据进行了细致的比较与分析。研究结果表明：尽管十年中生育水平呈现波动状态,但农村总和生育率一直都低于1．8,城镇则低于1．3,差异近几年有逐步缩小的趋势;城乡生育水平差异主要来自二孩生育率的差异,二孩生育率近十年来有微弱上升趋势;一孩生育率受民俗等因素影响较大,城镇波动大于农村;平均生育年龄推迟现象在城镇、农村一直都在缓慢持续。