The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities

We show that if decision makers may have stakes in certain events then the experimental elicitation of their subjective probabilities of these events is impossible.We thank Eyal Sulganik for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

The probability of nursing home use over a lifetime in Australia

This article further develops the life table models used in the USA by taking advantage of the superior data available in Australia. The probabilities of nursing home use over a lifetime are estimated for various ages for men and women. The results show that over one-third of the members of a female birth cohort will eventually enter nursing homes for long-term care at least once. The corresponding probability for males is one in five. A woman at age 65 faces a probability as high as 39% of using a nursing home for permanent care before her death compared with 25% for a man at age 65.     

A deterministic event tree approach to uncertainty,randomness and probability in individual chance processes

Both Popper and Good have noted that a deterministic microscopic physical approach to probability requires subjective assumptions about the statistical distribution of initial conditions. However, they did not use such a fact for defining an a priori probability, but rather recurred to the standard observation of repetitive events. This observational probability may be hard to assess for real-life decision problems under uncertainty that very often are - strictly speaking - non-repetitive, one-time events. This may be a reason for the popularity of subjective probability in decision models. Unfortunately, such subjective probabilities often merely reflect attitudes towards risk, and not the underlying physical processes.In order to get as objective as possible a definition of probability for one-time events, this paper identifies the origin of randomness in individual chance processes. By focusing on the dynamics of the process, rather than on the (static) device, it is found that any process contains two components: observer-independent (= objective) and observer-dependent (= subjective). Randomness, if present, arises from the subjective definition of the rules of the game, and is not - as in Popper's propensity - a physical property of the chance device. In this way, the classical definition of probability is no longer a primitive notion based upon equally possible cases, but is derived from the underlying microscopic processes, plus a subjective, clearly identified, estimate of the branching ratios in an event tree. That is, equipossibility is not an intrinsic property of the system object/subject but is forced upon the system via the rules of the game/measurement.Also, the typically undefined concept of symmetry in games of chance is broken down into objective and subjective components. It is found that macroscopic symmetry may hold under microscopic asymmetry. A similar analysis of urn drawings shows no conceptual difference with other games of chance (contrary to Allais' opinion). Finally, the randomness in Lande's knife problem is not due to objective fortuity (as in Popper's view) but to the rules of the game (the theoretical difficulties arise from intermingling microscopic trajectories and macroscopic events).Dedicated to Professor Maurice Allais on the occasion of the Nobel Prize in Economics awarded December, 1988.     

Parental sensitivity and friendship development: The mediating role of cooperation

Interactions with mothers and fathers form a critical foundation for youths’ later peer relationships. This study focused on the associations of maternal and paternal sensitivity in third grade with friendship outcomes in sixth grade. Because interactions with parents provide the earliest opportunities for children to learn prosocial behaviors such as cooperation, and cooperation is theoretically conceptualized as a foundation of friendship, cooperation may play a role in the link between parenting and children’s later social relationships. Using the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development sample (N = 955; 51% female; 83% White), and a multimethod, multireporter longitudinal design, children’s cooperation was tested as a mediating mechanism that linked parental sensitivity to early adolescent friendship. Results indicated that most indirect paths from both mothers and fathers’ sensitivity to observed friendship interactions and perceived friendship quality, via cooperation, were significant. Findings provide a more concrete understanding of how parental sensitivity translates to better friendships.     

Deconstructing maternal sensitivity: Predictive relations to mother‐child attachment in home and laboratory settings

Despite the well‐documented importance of parental sensitivity for child development, there is a lack of consensus regarding how best to assess it. We investigated the factor structure of maternal caregiving behavior as assessed at 12 months by the Maternal Behavior Q‐Sort (Pederson & Moran) with 274 mother‐infant dyads. Subsequently, we examined associations between these empirically‐derived dimensions and child attachment, assessed in the home and laboratory (final N = 157). Three dimensions of maternal behavior were identified, corresponding fairly closely to Ainsworth's original scales. They were labeled Cooperation/Attunement, Positivity, and Accessibility/Availability. Only Cooperation/Attunement consistently predicted home‐based attachment at 15 months and 2 years, and at comparable strength to the overall sensitivity score, suggesting that this construct may be central to sensitivity. At 18 months, compared to their primarily secure counterparts, different types of laboratory‐assessed insecure attachment were associated with different patterns of maternal behavior. Mothers in avoidant relationships (n = 18) were low on Cooperation/Attunement and Accessibility/Availability, but fairly high on Positivity. Mothers of disorganized infants (n = 11) were Cooperative/Attuned but somewhat less Positive toward, and less Accessible/Available to, their infants. A multidimensional approach to parental behavior may facilitate the identification of parenting precursors of insecure parent‐child relationships.     

The roles of moral sensitivity and father presence on the relationship between violent video game exposure and aggression among left-behind adolescents

This cross-sectional study explored the relationship between violent video game exposure (VVGE) and aggression in left-behind adolescents (LBAs) in China, taking into account the effects of moral sensitivity and father presence. A cluster sampling design was applied in this study; we recruited 615 adolescents (45.85% male, age range 12–18 years, M_age = 14.70 years, SD = 1.66) from China. The results by using SPSS 25.0 and the PROCESS macro showed that VVGE was positively associated with LBAs' trait aggression and its items, and moral sensitivity played a partial mediating role in these relationships. Moreover, father presence moderated VVGE and LBAs' trait aggression, verbal aggression and hostility. Specifically, at a high level of father presence, the direct effect of VVGE on trait aggression was significantly moderated by increasing the level of father presence, whereas this moderating effect was not significant at a low level of father presence. The results were similar for verbal aggression and hostility. Thus, moral sensitivity and father presence should be considered in prevention and intervention strategies aimed at reducing LBAs' aggression.     

Distributive justice of bargaining and risk sensitivity

In this paper we will point out some possibilities and limitations of the discussion of distributive justice by bargaining in the classical bargaining models.We start by considering a kind of bargaining situation where two persons with different risk aversions have to distribute a given quantity of a certain good. Then we define a model in which two bargaining situations are compared. In both situations two persons divide a quantity of a certain good; in the second situation one of the persons, say person 2, is replaced by a more risk averse person. From a well-known theorem of Kihlstrom, Roth and Schmeidler it follows that in the Nash solution, the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution and the Maschler-Perles solution person 1 prefers the situation with the more risk averse opponent.In both classes of problems the judgement of distributive justice is impossible because of an informational poverty of the classical bargaining model. We propose to integrate changes in the economic situation of the persons into the model.Therefore, in a third step, we compare two distributive situations, where differences in the situations are implied by changes in the initial endowments of the persons. Under the assumption that each person has a decreasing local risk aversion, we show that every reallocation of the initial endowments is enlarged or at least preserved by risk sensitive bargaining solutions. This fact has some significance for the discussion of distributive justice in social decision making by bargaining.     

Scope insensitivity in health risk reduction studies: A comparison of choice experiments and the contingent valuation method for valuing safer food

Scope insensitivity and embedding are fundamental concerns in contingent valuation studies for health risk reductions. Recently, choice experiments have increasingly been used to obtain contingent willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. We juxtapose the WTP estimates of a choice experiment (CE) to those of the contingent valuation method (CVM) for different health risk reductions and compare them in the extent of scope insensitivity and embedding. WTP using CVM is scope sensitive for single health risks, but embedding is observed for multiple disease risks. In contrast, WTP based on the CE is highly scope sensitive and convex in risk reduction levels.

The social dimensions of happiness and life satisfaction of Australians: Evidence from the World Values Survey

Relatively short‐term verbal therapies and other forms of intervention may help people to overcome difficult passages in life, but studies in recent decades have pointed to the salience of social and economic conditions in shaping life satisfaction and happiness. The present study contributes to our knowledge of this field by extending the range of social factors considered, but also, crucially, by the employment of statistical analyses that serve to disentangle the often overlapping variables associated with life satisfaction and happiness. Our results support previous ‘demographic’ findings as well as new results including education, marriage, children, human rights and, particularly in the context of Australian society, perceived choice in life. Establishing what the major contributing factors are can assist the formulation of social policy. Moreover, it can alert practitioners to the value of consolidating their work by encouraging service users to utilise community sources that enhance life satisfaction and/or happiness. Key Practitioner Message: ● The informed linking of service users to sources of life satisfaction and happiness can ‘value add’ direct service interventions; ● The salience of exercising individual choice to achieving life satisfaction reinforces the importance of the practice principle of self‐determination; ● A person's sense of physical wellbeing is a relevant part of social assessment and subsequent planned actions.     

The incoherence of agreeing to disagree

The agreeing-to-disagree theorem of Aumann and the no-expected-gain-from-trade theorem of Milgrom and Stokey are reformulated under an operational definition of Bayesian rationality. Common knowledge of beliefs and preferences is achieved through transactions in a contingent claims market, and mutual expectations of Bayesian rationality are defined by the condition of joint coherence,i.e., the collective avoidance of arbitrage opportunities. The existence of a common prior distribution and the impossibility of agreeing to disagree follow from the joint coherence requirement, but the prior must be interpreted as a risk-neutral distribution: a product of probabilities and marginal utilities for money. The failure of heterogenous information to create disagreements or incentives to trade is shown to be an artifact of overlooking the potential role of trade in constructing the initial state of common knowledge.     

青少年犯罪社区矫正的社会工作方法探讨

社区矫正是一种与监禁矫正相对的行刑方式,当前青少年犯罪社区矫正日益引起社会各界的广泛关注。自2003年社区矫正试点工作在北京、上海、天津等6省市展开以来,许多专家学者都在探索社区矫正的理论,但尚没有形成适用的方法体系。本文在社区矫正实践经验的基础上,就社会工作方法介入青少年犯罪社区矫正的意义、程序、原则等做积极的探讨。     

The sensitivity of developing countries to external shocks in an interdependent world

North-South interdependence is illustrated by means of a general equilibrium model, in which the rural and urban sectors are treated entirely separately and urban real wages are downward rigid. We explain why such an approach may be more meaningful for long-run analysis than one that stresses the role of demand. The model's properties are illustrated by a theoretical analysis based on a simplified version of the system, and by simulations based on assumptions made by World Bank Staff in the 1983 World Development Report.     

The Relation Between Probability and Evidence Judgment: An Extension of Support Theory

We propose a theory that relates perceived evidence to numerical probability judgment. The most successful prior account of this relation is Support Theory, advanced in Tversky and Koehler (1994). Support Theory, however, implies additive probability estimates for binary partitions. In contrast, superadditivity has been documented in Macchi, Osherson, and Krantz (1999), and both sub- and superadditivity appear in the experiments reported here. Nonadditivity suggests asymmetry in the processing of focal and nonfocal hypotheses, even within binary partitions. We extend Support Theory by revising its basic equation to allow such asymmetry, and compare the two equations' ability to predict numerical assessments of probability from scaled estimates of evidence for and against a given proposition. Both between- and within-subject experimental designs are employed for this purpose. We find that the revised equation is more accurate than the original Support Theory equation. The implications of asymmetric processing on qualitative assessments of chance are also briefly discussed.     

区域产业结构新型工业化的主观能力评价方法与实证分析

新型工业化在实际产业结构分析中存在操作性问题。新型工业化可以看做一个地区经济体能力的衡量标准,使之对区域的产业结构进行主观评价,并且尝试引入DEA模型,结合新型工业化的要求,构建专门针对地区产业结构的新型工业化评价体系。     

The roles of food prices and food access in determining food purchases of low-income households

A growing literature suggests that limited access to full-service grocery stores may be linked to poor diets, obesity, and other diet-related diseases. Food prices are likely to be as much of a factor in low-income consumers’ food purchase decisions as food store access is, but few studies consider the roles of prices and food access simultaneously. We incorporate supermarket access into a utility-theoretic censored demand system for 13 food groups among households that receive the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits in the U.S. The demand system is estimated with a Bayesian procedure which otherwise would have been cumbersome with the classical approach. Results suggest that prices are significant determinants of food purchases, but supermarket access has limited influence. Improving food choices, diet, and health may require addressing both accessibility and affordability.     

Looking Back to Move Forward: The Value of Reflexive Journaling for Novice Researchers

For novice qualitative researchers, each encounter in the field yields a ream of questions and uncertainties. While fieldwork has inherent ambiguities for all researchers, novice researchers have less experience on which to draw to assess their interactions with participants. Adding to this uncertainty, gerontological fieldwork is frequently imbued by age-and cohort-related nuances, characteristics which new researchers often do not share with participants. It is also not uncommon for new researchers to work primarily alone on projects, such as dissertations and theses. Mentors and academic advisors can help examine research encounters, however advice may be most constructive following engagement in reflexive exercises. We discuss the benefits of using reflexive journaling to assist with answering the many questions generated while conducting qualitative interviews during a study with family carers. Advisors should consider encouraging the use of reflexive journaling to help novices grow as researchers.     

Applying the international wellbeing index to investigate subjective wellbeing of New Zealanders with European and with Maori heritage

Abstract

The International Wellbeing Index (IWI), a global measure for investigating subjective wellbeing, consists of a Personal Wellbeing Index (PWI) and a National Wellbeing Index (NWI). The index is applied to the two largest ethnic populations in New Zealand—New Zealanders with European heritage and New Zealanders with Maori heritage. Psychometric characteristics of the IWI for both subsamples compare favourably to those found in other countries. However, for both subsamples, the absolute value of reported subjective wellbeing is lower than expected. Consistent with other social indicators, New Zealanders with Maori heritage show even lower values of PWI and NWI than New Zealanders with European heritage.     

Patterns of offending behaviour over time for different groups of children in relation to time spent in and out of care

Children who spend time in care are more likely to have an official record of offending behaviour than the general population. However, there is a lack of longitudinal research on the timing, severity, and volume of offending in relation to time spent in and out of care. Furthermore, differences in patterns of offending by identifiable groups in care are rarely a focus of research. This study is both longitudinal and identifies 8 groups within the care population with different volumes of recorded offending: ranging from a mean of 41.75 (prolific) to 1.60 (low). Substance misuse, gender, and reasons for referral to care were associated with different patterns of offending in and out of care. The study is primarily based on a subsample of 64 children who had offended whilst in care. The subsample represents 38.5% of a cohort of children who had been in care or were taken into care over a particular period (2008–2011) in one local authority. The placements and recorded offences of the 64 children were tracked for a further 2 years (2011–2013). The study highlights future areas of research and the need for more tailored responses to different groups within the care system.     

You matter to me: important relationships and self‐esteem of adolescents in foster care

This study examined the extent to which relationships with biological mothers, foster parents and peers influenced the self‐esteem of adolescents in foster care. A subsample from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well‐Being of adolescents in long‐term foster care was used for this study (n = 188). The findings indicated that when considering relationships with biological mothers, foster parents and peers and controlling for demographic characteristics in one regression model, relationships with peers had the greatest impact on self‐esteem of adolescents. Implications for child welfare and clinical work are discussed.     

集称文化景观集成效应分析——以羊城八景为例

我国传统城镇、村落、园林、祠寺、风景区等常有将重点景观归纳为"八景"、"十景"、"十八景"的集称文化现象。这种景观命名集称具有哲学、美学、心理学、文学、传播学等多方面的系统工程价值,对表现景观艺术的集成效应与观赏效果能产生积极的影响。探索其发展历程、思维模式、艺术构成、运用特色,对继承我国景观文化优秀传统,提升城市环境质量,实现人类诗意地栖居,具有广泛的现实意义。