A Methodology for Determining Interactions in Probabilistic Safety Assessment Models by Varying One Parameter at a Time

In risk analysis problems, the decision‐making process is supported by the utilization of quantitative models. Assessing the relevance of interactions is an essential information in the interpretation of model results. By such knowledge, analysts and decisionmakers are able to understand whether risk is apportioned by individual factor contributions or by their joint action. However, models are oftentimes large, requiring a high number of input parameters, and complex, with individual model runs being time consuming. Computational complexity leads analysts to utilize one‐parameter‐at‐a‐time sensitivity methods, which prevent one from assessing interactions. In this work, we illustrate a methodology to quantify interactions in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models by varying one parameter at a time. The method is based on a property of the functional ANOVA decomposition of a finite change that allows to exactly determine the relevance of factors when considered individually or together with their interactions with all other factors. A set of test cases illustrates the technique. We apply the methodology to the analysis of the core damage frequency of the large loss of coolant accident of a nuclear reactor. Numerical results reveal the nonadditive model structure, allow to quantify the relevance of interactions, and to identify the direction of change (increase or decrease in risk) implied by individual factor variations and by their cooperation.     

Cooperating to Commercialize Technology: A Dynamic Model of Fairness Perceptions,Experience, and Cooperation

Technology entrepreneurship is an important driver of economic growth, although entrepreneurs must maintain cooperative ties with the owners of any technology they hope to bring to market. Existing studies show that fairness perceptions have a great influence on this cooperation, but no research investigates its precise mechanisms or dynamic patterns. This study explores the development of 17 ventures that cooperated with a university‐owner of technology and thereby identifies different cooperation patterns in which fairness perceptions influence the degree of cooperation. These perceptions also change over time, partly as a function of accumulated experience and learning. A system dynamics model integrates insights from existing literature with the empirical findings to reveal which cooperation mechanisms relate to venture development over time; the combinations of individual experience, fairness perceptions, and market circumstances lead to four different patterns. This model can explain changes in entrepreneurial cooperation as a result of changes in fairness perceptions, which depend on learning effects and entrepreneurial experience. Each identified cooperation pattern has implications for research and offers insights for practitioners who need to manage relationships in practice.     

淡季中酒店与OTA合作模式选择研究

针对淡季时酒店入住率下降的困境,将"互联网+"背景与收益管理理论相结合,通过构建Stackelberg博弈模型,研究了淡季时酒店与在线旅游代理商（Online Travel Agent,OTA）如何选择合作模式以提高入住率和收益。研究在几种常见情境下展开,不同情境下均得出了最优合作模式。优化的合作模式不但协调了酒店服务供应链,而且在提高酒店整体效益的同时,也增加了OTA的收益。研究为酒店和OTA提供了具有可操作意义上的合作模式决策支持,同时也弥补了以往研究在酒店和OTA合作模式对比、选择与优化方面的空缺。     

Replenishment Strategies for Micro‐Retailers in Developing Countries

When formal distribution channels are absent in developing countries, micro‐retailers travel a long distance to replenish their stocks directly from suppliers. This “informal” replenishment strategy is inefficient due to high imputed travel costs involved in the replenishment process. To improve efficiency, one “hybrid” replenishment strategy has emerged under which one of the micro‐retailers in a neighborhood, while continuing its own retail business, also operates as a wholesaler to serve other micro‐retailers in the neighborhood. A major obstacle for the transition from the informal strategy to the hybrid strategy is that the micro‐retailers are reluctant to source from a wholesaler who also competes with them in the retail market. Thus, it is not clear when the micro‐retailers adopt the hybrid strategy instead of the informal strategy. Meanwhile, the micro‐retailers may prefer the “formal” strategy: a traditional replenishment strategy under which one of the micro‐retailers relinquishes its retail business and operates purely as a wholesaler. We examine a situation when competing micro‐retailers contemplate with the three potential aforementioned replenishment strategies. Our equilibrium analysis of the two‐store model reveals that the dominant strategy is: (a) the hybrid strategy when the travel cost is high; (b) the formal strategy when the travel cost is medium; and (c) the informal strategy when the travel cost is low. This key insight is shown continue to hold when we extend the two‐store model to incorporate other issues including: quantity discounts from the supplier, variable operating costs, price competition, local monopolies, and different decision sequences. One additional finding is that the transition from the informal strategy to the hybrid strategy could benefit consumers if the micro‐retailers receive quantity discounts from the supplier. Furthermore, when there are more than two stores, we show that the formal strategy is never dominant. Moreover, when the number of stores increases, the hybrid strategy becomes more preferable to the informal strategy.     

Time Horizon and Cooperation in Continuous Time

We study social dilemmas in (quasi‐) continuous‐time experiments, comparing games with different durations and termination rules. We discover a stark qualitative contrast in behavior in continuous time as compared to previously studied behavior in discrete‐time games: cooperation is easier to achieve and sustain with deterministic horizons than with stochastic ones, and end‐game effects emerge, but subjects postpone them with experience. Analysis of individual strategies provides a basis for a simple reinforcement learning model that proves to be consistent with this evidence. An additional treatment lends further support to this explanation.     

Replication of Routines in Organizations: Existing Literature and New Perspectives

Replication of existing routines in new contexts is an important value‐creating strategy for organizations. This paper synthesizes the state of research on replication and organizes the literature around two broad themes: forward knowledge flows (i.e. from a replicator to a replicatee) and reverse knowledge flows. The authors show that the theoretical assumptions of existing research leave important questions around the replication of routines unaddressed. More specifically, they identify research gaps in regard to micro‐level processes of replication. Little is understood about the performance of routines in practice and, related to that, the processes through which routines change during replication. Drawing on recent theorizing on organizational routines, in particular the relationship between the ostensive and performative aspects, helps the authors to unpack the micro‐level processes of forward and reverse knowledge flows. This paper opens two new trajectories for research on replication: (1) a focus on the actions of individual actors in the enactment of organizational routines provides new possibilities for understanding how replication is an inherently political process; (2) conceptualizing change as endogenous within the performance of routines offers a route to a more nuanced understanding of change and deviation in the process of replication. The paper closes with a summary of major theoretical arguments, questions for further research and implications for practitioners.     

Accelerating the Innovation Process: A Systematic Review and Realist Synthesis of the Research Literature

There is continued interest among academics, practitioners and policy‐makers in methods to achieve accelerated innovation. Academic studies of this complex phenomenon have succeeded in reaching a high degree of consensus on the antecedents of innovation speed. The aim in this review is to elucidate further the mechanisms underlying management interventions to promote speed. The review adopts a theory‐led, realist synthesis of innovation speed research – the first example of this methodology in management studies. The authors develop a new time‐based framework for categorizing the innovation‐speed literature. The framework has a CIMO logic, and is built by invoking the organizational studies literature on time. The authors contextualize the innovation‐speed literature in relation to the three generic temporal challenges faced by all organizations: reducing temporal uncertainty; resolving temporal conflicts over activities; and allocating resources amid conditions of temporal scarcity. They problematize extant explanations of innovation speed as not taking account of different temporal orientations (temporal dichotomies) within innovation work, and thereby neglecting a potential barrier to achieving accelerated innovation outcomes. They further draw on the literature on time in organizations to suggest new avenues of research, and methodological approaches new to the study of innovation speed. The principal contribution of this review is to offer a new conceptual perspective on the complex empirical research examining how innovation projects may be accelerated from original idea to launch.     

Cooperation,Trust and Performance – Empirical Results from Three Countries

Reverting to the resource‐based view of strategic management and cooperation theory, we provide argumentation for the value of two critical resources to cooperating firms: cooperation experience and maxim‐based trust. The results of a large‐scale survey in three European countries (Austria, Slovenia and the Czech Republic) reveal an important fact: although cooperation experience contributes to business performance, the contribution of maxim‐based trust to success is significantly higher. As a result, corporate success depends not only on the quantity of cooperation experience, but also – and to an even greater extent – on the quality of cooperation with regard to the form of coordinative power established within the cooperation arrangement. Given that maxim‐based trust has been identified as a feasible coordination mechanism in cooperation relationships, it might therefore be freed from its frequent characterization as utopian and out of touch with reality.     

The Microeconomics of Efficient Group Behavior: Identification1

Consider a group consisting of S members facing a common budget constraint p'ξ=1: any demand vector belonging to the budget set can be (privately or publicly) consumed by the members. Although the intragroup decision process is not known, it is assumed to generate Pareto‐efficient outcomes; neither individual consumptions nor intragroup transfers are observable. The paper analyzes when, to what extent, and under which conditions it is possible to recover the underlying structure—individual preferences and the decision process—from the group's aggregate behavior. We show that the general version of the model is not identified. However, a simple exclusion assumption (whereby each member does not consume at least one good) is sufficient to guarantee generic identifiability of the welfare‐relevant structural concepts.     

Reputation in Continuous‐Time Games

We study reputation dynamics in continuous‐time games in which a large player (e.g., government) faces a population of small players (e.g., households) and the large player's actions are imperfectly observable. The major part of our analysis examines the case in which public signals about the large player's actions are distorted by a Brownian motion and the large player is either a normal type, who plays strategically, or a behavioral type, who is committed to playing a stationary strategy. We obtain a clean characterization of sequential equilibria using ordinary differential equations and identify general conditions for the sequential equilibrium to be unique and Markovian in the small players' posterior belief. We find that a rich equilibrium dynamics arises when the small players assign positive prior probability to the behavioral type. By contrast, when it is common knowledge that the large player is the normal type, every public equilibrium of the continuous‐time game is payoff‐equivalent to one in which a static Nash equilibrium is played after every history. Finally, we examine variations of the model with Poisson signals and multiple behavioral types.     

双渠道供应链中紧俏产品升级成本分担演化博弈分析

针对一个制造商和一个零售商所组成的双渠道供应链系统,本文运用演化博弈模型研究了供应链企业在紧俏产品升级成本分担中的产能分配问题,比较了无合作机制以及引入合作机制下供应链系统的演化稳定策略。研究发现：当无合作机制时,供应链系统根据不同的产能分配范围最终会稳定在以下3种策略上：(制造商投资,零售商不投资)、(制造商不投资,零售商投资)以及(制造商不投资,零售商不投资);当引入合作机制时,供应链系统在一定的产能分配范围内最终会稳定在双方共同投资的策略上。本文还通过算例分析了无合作机制时销售新产品的增加值以及产品升级成本对演化稳定策略的影响;产能分配比例,新产品批发价格对单方面投资概率的影响;引入合作机制下分享比例对共同投资为演化稳定策略时的影响。     

Supply Networks as a Complex Adaptive System: Toward Simulation‐Based Theory Building on Evolutionary Decision Making

In this article, we examine how the firms embedded in supply networks engage in decision making over time. The supply networks as a complex adaptive system are simulated using cellular automata (CA) through a dynamic evolution of cooperation (i.e., “voice” decision) and defection (i.e., “exit” decision) among supply network agents (i.e., firms). Simple local rules of interaction among firms generate complex patterns of cooperation and defection decisions in the supply network. The incentive schemes underlying decision making are derived through different configurations of the payoff‐matrix based on the game theory argument. The prisoner's dilemma game allows capturing the localized decision‐making process by rational agents, and the CA model allows the self‐organizing outcome to emerge. By observing the evolution of decision making by cooperating and defecting agents, we offer testable propositions regarding relationship development and distributed nature of governance mechanisms for managing supply networks.     

Three‐Stage Decision‐Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control

A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three‐stage decision‐making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e.g., maritime safety administration, NUC ship, and ships passing by) under resource constraint in the first stage, (2) to select the most feasible options by comparing the similarity of the new case and existing cases in the second stage, and (3) to make decisions considering the cooperation between the involved organizations by using a developed Bayesian network in the third stage. Consequently, this work provides a useful tool to achieve well‐organized management of NUC ships.     

How,When, and Why Bad Apples Spoil the Barrel: Negative Group Members and Dysfunctional Groups

This paper presents a review and integrative model of how, when, and why the behaviors of one negative group member can have powerful, detrimental influence on teammates and groups. We define the negative group member as someone who persistently exhibits one or more of the following behaviors: withholding effort from the group, expressing negative affect, or violating important interpersonal norms. We then detail how these behaviors elicit psychological states in teammates (e.g. perceptions of inequity, negative feelings, reduced trust), how those psychological states lead to defensive behavioral reactions (e.g. outbursts, mood maintenance, withdrawal), and finally, how these various manifestations of defensiveness influence important group processes and dynamics (e.g. cooperation, creativity). Key mechanisms and moderators are discussed as well as actions that might reduce the impact of the bad apple. Implications for both practice and research are discussed.     

Acquisition Management Under Fluctuating Raw Material Prices

We study a continuous‐review acquisition problem, in which the raw material price follows a discrete‐state Markov process and demand is compound Poisson. We show that one optimal policy is of the order‐up‐to type. Under our mean reversion and time continuity conditions, we further show that the order‐up‐to levels are decreasing at the current price level. At the same time, our computational study verifies that both conditions are indispensable for the monotonicity result. The study also hints at the connection between discrete‐ and continuous‐state price processes.     

Developing Absorptive Capacity Theory for Public Service Organizations: Emerging UK Empirical Evidence

A strong public policy focus on high performance means that utilizing management knowledge effectively is at a premium for UK public service organizations. This study empirically examined two English public agencies to explore the inter‐sectoral transfer of a strategic management model originally developed in the private sector – absorptive capacity – which is one way of conceptualizing an organizational competence in such knowledge mobilization. Two theoretical contributions are made. First, a new absorptive capacity framework for public service organizations is developed which recognizes the participation of public agency project teams during an innovation process proceeding over time with phases of co‐creation, testing, metamorphosis and diffusion. Second, our novel framework modifies an early influential model of absorptive capacity. Counter to this model, we argue that realized absorptive capacity requires agency from skilled and embedded actors to turn ‘curbing routines’ into ‘enabling routines’ in all four stages. Project (middle) managers have flexibility in their roles to seize episodic moments of opportunity to innovate and achieve service delivery goals, and to build absorptive capacity capability. Absorptive capacity capability develops organically over time. Future research directions are discussed.     

高等职业教育“校企一体化”合作办学模式研究与应用

校企合作是高职院校的办学模式,是一个相互选择、各取所需的过程。进行“校企一体化”合作办学,需要构建有效的校企合作模式。本文介绍了重庆智能信息工程学院校企合作办学模式的基本方式与实施方法,并对此模式进行了深入的探讨。     

RITUALS OR GOOD WORKS: SOCIAL SIGNALING IN RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS

We develop a model of social signaling of religiosity and cooperative behavior in religious organizations. The model embeds a ritual‐based religious organization in which signaling arises through the use of costly rituals, and a discipline‐based religious organization in which such signaling occurs through the monitoring of past behavior. We use this framework to contrast—positively and normatively—these two forms of social signaling. We show that ritual‐based religions, while using a costly and wasteful signal, also imply a higher level of coordination of behavior in social interactions and a higher incidence of mutual cooperation. Our welfare analysis suggests that communities are more likely to support a switch to a discipline‐based religion if strategic complementarities are high, and if there is sufficiently high level of public information about social behavior. This accords with the success of Calvin's Reformation in Switzerland and France, a process characterized by the reduction of rituals along with the creation of institutions to monitor and publicize individuals' behavior, such as the Consistory.     

Gruppensupervision als Prozessbegleitung zum Modellprojekt „Familien brauchen Väter“

The author presents an evaluation report based on the accompanying consultation process of the project ?Families need fathers – an experimental project aimed at strengthening paternal competence with regard to pregnancy and parenthood”. Within the protected sphere of supervision the counsellors are confronted with the challenge of developing their role as counsellor of fathers-to-be in a field of consultation in which women predominate. The process of reflection serves to facilitate a professional exchange of ideas as well as helping to develop a mutual, cooperative understanding of the role of the counsellor, thus providing a common framework to reflect the individual situations.     

On the Relation Between Trust and Fairness in Environmental Risk Management

In this study, we empirically examine the relations between trust, fairness, and cooperation within two environmental risk management contexts, one in which the focal issue is of high personal moral importance and the other in which the focal issue is of low moral importance. Using an experimental design embedded in two parallel survey questionnaires, one mailed to residents of Washington State, the other to German‐speaking residents of Switzerland, we either manipulated or constructed three factors, issue importance (high/low), procedural fairness (fair/unfair), and policy outcome (risk averse/risk accepting). This design enabled us to compare the predictions of the standard account of procedural fairness, that trust and cooperation are determined by judgments of fairness, with the predictions of an alternative account, that trust and cooperation will be determined by judgments of procedural fairness only when the issue involved is not morally important. Results for the American case showed that under conditions of high issue importance, policy outcome affected judged fairness, trust, and cooperation. Under conditions of low issue importance, policy outcome had no effect on judged fairness or trust but did have a moderate impact on cooperation. Analyses also showed that when issue importance was high, procedural fairness had no effects. When issue importance was low, procedural fairness had moderate effects on judged fairness and trust. Results for the Swiss case replicated the main findings for the American case. Together, these results support the alternative model of the relation between trust and fairness, suggesting that the efficacy of fair procedures is strictly limited.