考虑促销因素的医药电商平台需求预测研究

医药电商平台需求预测涉及到药品自身属性及电商平台推出的各种促销活动,本文针对以上影响药品销量的因素提出了时间序列-机器学习组合模型对医药电商平台进行需求预测。传统研究促销因素的需求预测文献将促销阶段商品销量拆分为常规销量和促销增量的线性组合,本文首先拟合各药品促销阶段的常规销量,根据各药品常规销量时间序列数据及服用周期,使用SARIMA模型拟合药品的常规销量预测值,并将常规销量预测值与商品促销特征数据一同输入XGBoost模型进行集成学习预测。本文使用国内某医药电商平台真实销售数据测试组合模型的有效性,结果显示组合预测模型的预测效果相比其他三种传统预测模型更优。此外,本文验证了不同折扣力度下组合预测模型的有效性,以及促销变量在预测模型中的有效性,同时研究了数据共享策略在需求预测中的应用场景,结果显示预测模型在引入促销变量和采用数据共享策略后都能显著降低模型的预测误差。     

网络购物平台最优价格促销策略：价格折扣还是现金券？

平台价格促销已成为平台营销中的重要问题，不同于传统模式下商家决定商品的价格促销，平台价格促销是以平台作为价格促销的决策者。本文建立了平台价格折扣和现金券两种由平台作为决策者的价格促销模型，探讨平台的最优价格促销策略，并在原有模型的基础上考虑商家广告投资决策并构建了扩展模型。研究结果表明，(1)只有当商品的基本需求、消费者价格敏感度和商品价格满足一定条件时，平台价格促销才能提升平台利润。(2)在两种价格促销都能提升平台利润情况下，平台的交易费率较高且商品价格较低则平台实施现金券策略的利润高于价格折扣策略；其他情况下平台实施价格折扣策略的利润高于现金券策略。(3)在平台交易费率较低的情况下，价格折扣策略下消费者能得到更多优惠；否则现金券策略下消费者得到更多优惠。(4)增加商家广告投资能够提高平台促销活动的利润，但是平台的价格优惠降低，且平台实施价格促销活动的条件区间减小。     

我国企业对企业促销管理的实证研究

调查研究发现,我国企业对企业促销管理实践还存在着许多问题。针对这些问题,企业应真正树立以市场为导向的营销观念,加强促销宣传,实施人员促销、广告和营业推广相结合的促销组合策略,加强促销人员队伍建设,加强和完善电子邮件促销。     

让促销为品牌权益做"加法"

面对市场竞争日益激烈,国内企业广泛使用促销策略,从价格促销到组合促销,从面向消费者的促销到面向销售人员的促销,方式不断推陈出新。然而,由于一味地使用价格促销策略使我国企业吃了苦头,如家电、手机等行业下降到微利甚至无利润,导致市场份额与利润反向变动,损害了企业长期以来建立的品牌权益。索尼的家电产品比一般的家电产品价格贵10%～20%,而消费者仍然选择它;耐克鞋以100元左右的成本卖到600元以上,年轻人还非常迷恋。可见,通过品牌权益可以在产品和服务上实现附加价值,它是企业的重要资产,也是竞争优势的体现和长期利润的重要源泉。…     

浅淡城市营销组合策略的运用

该文对城市营销组合策略进行了较为详尽的分析与探讨,以启示城市营销者整合运用产品策略、价格策略、促销策略、分销策略四项营销组合,以更为有效进行城市营销活动。     

人员促销新方式的探析

在深化改革开放,加快转变经济发展方式的"十二五"时期,人员促销的方式对"加快形成企业自主经营、公平竞争,消费者自由选择、自主消费,商品和要素自由流动、平等交换的现代市场体系"具有重要的现实意义。当前,高校教材人员促销的两种方式不能满足市场营销活动的需要,本文提出四种新方式,以完善促销组合策略,推动现代市场体系的发展。     

消费者选择行为下的电商战略性缺货问题研究

随着互联网经济的日益普及,国内电商企业开展"双十一"等大型促销活动十分活跃,与此同时,促销期产品缺货、电商企业临时取消订单等问题也日益引起了关注.由于产品可得性会和价格共同影响消费者的购买选择,因而如何科学理性地管理缺货问题,成为值得深入研究的话题.从消费者选择理论出发,研究了中国电商企业的折扣定价与市场需求转移机制,并在考虑运营能力的现实约束前提下深入分析了中国电商企业战略性缺货策略的形成机理与演化路径.研究结果表明,当产品的单位运营成本增加幅度超过某一阈值点时,企业就有可能不再满足所有顾客的订货需求;并且较之事后调整型的订单取消与临时缺货,事先有考虑的战略性缺货策略会更加有利于电商企业.在网络购物越来越普及的今天,研究结果对正确理解互联网企业的运营机制,推进我国电商行业的良性发展具有重要的启示.     

竞争环境下主导电子零售商的销售模式选择和信息共享策略

考虑由单一供应商、单一电子零售商和单一传统零售商组成的供应链，研究了占主导地位的电子零售商的在线销售模式(转售和代理销售)选择及信息共享策略。首先，针对两种在线销售模式，构建了信息共享和不共享情形下以供应链成员利润最大化为目标的优化模型，并通过求解模型得到了供应链成员的均衡定价和订货策略；然后，比较了不同策略组合下供应链各成员的期望利润，分析了各成员的信息共享策略偏好以及电子零售商的销售模式选择策略。研究表明：1)在转售模式下，当市场需求波动程度较小时，信息共享会增加电子零售商的利润，降低供应商和传统零售商的利润；当波动程度较大时，则相反；当市场需求波动处于中等水平时，电子零售商不共享信息能使供应商、电子零售商和传统零售商达成三赢局面。2)在代理销售模式下，信息共享能增加传统零售商的利润，但不一定能增加供应商和电子零售商的利润。只有佣金费率较低，高市场类型的概率较低且市场需求波动不大时，信息共享才是电子零售商的最优策略。3)主导电子零售商应该选择转售模式。本文的研究可为主导电商企业销售模式选择和信息分享决策提供理论依据;为相关零售企业在不同策略组合下定价和订货决策提供支持。     

考虑溢出效应的互补品企业合作促销行为研究

针对互补品的相互关联性造成互补品企业产品促销存在溢出效应的情况,建立了考虑溢出效应的互补品企业合作促销模型,对互补品企业在完全非合作促销、部分合作促销和完全合作促销情形下的企业最优决策进行了研究.考察了不同合作情形下溢出效应对互补品企业促销投入和收益的影响作用,进一步对企业通过促销获得的收益进行了对比分析.最后,通过一个数值算例说明了有关结论的有效性.     

具有灵活时间期限的混合投资组合优化模型

在经济全球化和金融一体化背景下,投资者资产配置需求变得越来越多元化。如何构建合理的多元化投资组合已成为金融理论研究的热点问题之一。为此,本文考虑由项目、股票及无风险资产组成的混合投资组合选择问题。假定在资产组合的投资期限由所选中项目执行期灵活确定的前提下,投资者同时考虑项目间依赖与排斥关系、交易成本及破产风险控制等现实因素,提出以终端财富净现值最大为目标的混合投资组合优化模型。然后,设计改进的多策略融合人工蜂群算法对所构建模型进行求解。最后,借助算例分析来阐明所提出模型的实用性及算法有效性。研究结果表明：灵活时间期限的混合投资组合策略较现有的灵活时间期限的项目投资组合策略更为有效。     

A data mining framework for targeted category promotions

This research presents a new approach to derive recommendations for segment-specific, targeted marketing campaigns on the product category level. The proposed methodological framework serves as a decision support tool for customer relationship managers or direct marketers to select attractive product categories for their target marketing efforts, such as segment-specific rewards in loyalty programs, cross-merchandising activities, targeted direct mailings, customized supplements in catalogues, or customized promotions. The proposed methodology requires customers’ multi-category purchase histories as input data and proceeds in a stepwise manner. It combines various data compression techniques and integrates an optimization approach which suggests candidate product categories for segment-specific targeted marketing such that cross-category spillover effects for non-promoted categories are maximized. To demonstrate the empirical performance of our proposed procedure, we examine the transactions from a real-world loyalty program of a major grocery retailer. A simple scenario-based analysis using promotion responsiveness reported in previous empirical studies and prior experience by domain experts suggests that targeted promotions might boost profitability between 15 % and 128 % relative to an undifferentiated standard campaign.     

An economic evaluation model of product mix flexibility

This paper develops a product mix flexibility model comprising labor flexibility, machine flexibility, routing flexibility, and information technology, with the product mix flexibility measured by an economic index. Outputs from the model can be useful in making suitable production decisions to produce multiple products in an uncertain environment. Example solutions are given. How the product mix flexibility is affected by flexibility factors is discussed, and the results show that the bottleneck plays the most important role. This paper can help economic evaluation when product mix flexibility and the factors affecting flexibility are to be improved. It can also assist in making enterprise flexibility promotion decisions.     

The marketing strategy worksheet—A practical planning tool

The Marketing Strategy Worksheet is a simple aid to strategic planners. It enables a coherent and integrated plan to be produced and communicated to others. It is a three-level flow chart comprising an analytical stage, formulation of some key primary decisions and subsequent settlement of strategic issues within the marketing mix. The analytical stage incorporates both external and internal analysis. The primary decisions concern company objectives, marketing objectives, demand management, target market and positioning. Using the conventional marketing mix format, decisions are made about product, promotion, distribution and price.     

Consumer Effort in Promotional Incentives

Consumers need to exert effort to use the incentives provided in a promotion campaign. This effort is critical in the consumers’ decision process and for the success of the campaign. We develop a model of consumer redemption effort that is general in nature and is applicable to coupons, rebates, and other price‐discrimination devices. We find that the impact of redemption effort is quite intricate on a firm’s profit and consumers’ surplus. We find that there are cases where a firm would like to operate in a low redemption cost environment while consumers would be better off with higher costs. We identify cases where price can remain the same with or without the promotion. In these cases, it is possible that the surplus for each individual consumer is higher when a firm price discriminates and improves its profit. Our results indicate that a firm would rather have variation in consumer redemption costs than to have variation in consumer valuations. However, in a market with low valuation variability, consumer redemption cost variability is essential for an efficient promotion campaign. Therefore, the markets that naturally have a lot of variability in consumer valuations should be the ones targeted for online promotion programs that reduce consumer effort levels, not the markets with low variability.     

关系投资和价格促销的价值比较研究

过去营销界一直把关系投资和价格促销策略作为获得新顾客和提高现有顾客满意度的主要工具。然而关系投资和价格促销作为流失顾客的赢回策略,对于失而复得的顾客而言,哪种策略能令顾客更满意,购买更多,能使厂商绩效更好,是我们需要解答的问题。本文通过对酒店业的抽样调查数据分析发现:第一,用关系投资策略赢回顾客的满意度和购买份额较用价格促销策略赢回的顾客更高。第二,在关系投资策略的影响下,价格敏感度高(低)的顾客满意度与购买份额之间拟合的函数曲线边际递减(递增);在价格促销策略影响下,价格敏感度高(低)的顾客满意度与购买份额之间拟合的函数曲线边际递增(递减)。第三,注重价格促销策略的酒店,其绩效低于注重关系投资策略的酒店,绩效的稳定性也相对较差。研究对指导企业管理实践具有重要参考价值。     

Zur Wirkung von Neukunden-Promotions auf Bestandskunden

Service providers frequently offer better deals to prospective customers than they offer to customers who prolong their contracts. The present paper examines the effectiveness of incentives on new customers and, perhaps even more significantly, assesses negative effects on existing customers. To test the hypothesized effects, a series of two experiments was conducted. Results indicate that promotions that are offered exclusively to prospective customers have a negative effect on existing customers, and that this negative effect is stronger for customers with a short relationship age and for those at the end of their contract life-cycle. The unfairness and inequity perceived by existing customers can be substantially reduced if these customers are offered the opportunity to receive a part of the promotion value, while the promotion??s effectiveness to attract new customers remains unaffected.     

基于价格调整的长寿风险自然对冲策略

在长寿风险对冲框架下,通过引入外生的产品价格,构建了基于价格调整的自然对冲模型。首先运用最优化理论得到了模型最优产品配比的解析式,然后在实际的销售配比与模型的最优配比相等的约束下,推导出了寿险产品和年金产品的最优定价。该定价能够使得模型的最优配比真正被实现,即销售的配比刚好是使产品组合长寿风险最小化的最优配比。最后通过数值算例,阐述了基于价格调整的自然对冲策略的效果,并进一步分析了利率、承保年龄、性别等因素对自然对冲策略的影响。     

Optimal Workforce Mix in Service Systems with Two Types of Customers

We consider a service system with two types of customers. In such an environment, the servers can either be specialists (or dedicated) who serve a specific customer type, or generalists (or flexible) who serve either type of customers. Cross‐trained workers are more flexible and help reduce system delay, but also contribute to increased service costs and reduced service efficiency. Our objective is to provide insights into the choice of an optimal workforce mix of flexible and dedicated servers. We assume Poisson arrivals and exponential service times, and use matrix‐analytic methods to investigate the impact of various system parameters such as the number of servers, server utilization, and server efficiency on the choice of server mix. We develop guidelines for managers that would help them to decide whether they should be either at one of the extremes, i.e., total flexibility or total specialization, or some combination. If it is the latter, we offer an analytical tool to optimize the server mix.