我国平均预期寿命变动的实证分析

平均预期寿命是国内外评价一个国家或地区人口健康状况的重要指标。国家统计局只公布0岁组资料,而要进一步分析,则需要各年龄组预期寿命资料。文章在利用1995年、2005年全国1％人口抽样数据编制了分性别、城乡的完全生命表基础上,分析得出：我国各年龄组平均预期寿命,女性〉男性,城镇〉乡村;暂时平均预期寿命的相对增长速度,1995-2005年快于1981-1995年,女性快于男性;老年组死亡率的降低对0岁组平均预期寿命的贡献率最大等结论。     

人口预期寿命的经济损益分析

随着社会发展、科技进步以及医疗卫生条件的改善,人们的平均预期寿命也在提高,并对社会经济发展造成影响,因此对人口预期寿命的经济收益与成本分析成为日益重视的课题。借鉴Roson的特征价格模型构建经济模型,为国内外学者对人口预期寿命的经济价值研究提供了一个新的思路。实证分析并检验得出的结论为:人口预期寿命的增长会提升消费与投资,增加社会总收入;而与此同时,人口预期寿命增长也将增加养老基金支出与医疗基金支出,增加社会总成本,形成社会压力。因此,政府应在大力发展老龄化产业的同时,采取相应措施以应对人口预期寿命变动所带来的经济成本。     

山东人口平均预期寿命已达75岁“十五”期间人均增寿1．6岁

人口平均预期寿命是衡量人口健康水平的核心指标．也是评价一个国家或地区社会经济发展水平尤其是医疗卫生技术水平的最重要的综合指标之一。随着居民生活质量和医疗卫生条件的改善．山东人口平均预期寿命进一步提高．2005年达到75．02岁．“十五”期间人均增寿1．6岁。     

影响杭州市人口期望寿命的疾病变动趋势分析

本文采用ICD-10进行疾病分类,从杭州市人口疾病分布及疾病致死率上,探讨其变化及发展规律,以此为卫生事业管理方法和制定防治对策提供依据.通过分析,特提出需进一步加强慢性疾病的防治工作,有针对性地开展健康教育的普及工作,制定相应的预防策略和干预措施、密切监控传染病等措施,以提高全市人口的期望寿命.     

关于预期受教育年限测算的改进

文章在已有研究成果的基础上,建立了简化型学生流量投入产出模型;在此基础上探讨了预期受教育年限测算的改进问题,并通过实证分析验证了改进型公式的合理性.     

实现“十二五”期间我国“人均预期寿命提高1岁”的实证分析

温家宝总理在政府工作报告中首次提出:"十二五"时期"人均预期寿命提高1岁"的目标。文章在基于生命表数据基础上,通过计算人均预期寿命贡献率并进行相关与回归分析后得出:我国目前人均预期寿命虽然已高于绝大多数发展中国家,但其绝对增速正逐渐放慢。而降低60-90岁年龄段老年人口死亡率、提高居民消费水平、缩小家庭规模、迁移有条件的离退休老人到低海拔地区养老是实现人均预期寿命提高1岁目标的有效路径。     

山西人口死亡率水平分析

本文通过对山西省第五次人口普查的死亡数据的整理,分别从年龄、性别、地区、疾病等多方面详尽地分析了山西省的死亡水平。     

人口年龄结构、预期与中国房价:基于需求方的视角

文章构建了包含人口年龄结构、预期房产收益率、利率的房价决定模型.基于该理论模型,在对1998-201]年中国省际面板数据、11个省份人口年龄结构“四分法”数据、7个省份人口年龄结构“五分法”数据进行实证分析后发现:总抚养负担的下降是房价提升的重要推力,其中少年抚养负担对于房价有显著的负向效应,而老人赡养负担对于房价的影响是不确定的;预期房产收益率是推升房价的重要因素;利率对于房价的影响系数始终为负.     

我国人口平均预期寿命的过去、现在和未来

一、我国人口平均期望寿命的计算 现代研究人口寿命的方法,是编制寿命表计算平均期望寿命。平均寿命是指同时出生的一代人预期可能活到的岁数。例如我国第三次人口普查,1981年我国人口寿命是:男子66.43岁,女子69.35岁,合计67.88岁。并非所有的男子都能活到66.43岁,而是说有多数人超过66.43岁的水平。计算平均寿命是由编制寿命表开始的。此处将我国初期编制寿命表计算平均寿命的情况,略加叙述如下:     

寿命有长度 生命有质量———“人均预期寿命”指标解读简

人均预期寿命是用来测度和比较人类的寿命长度,衡量一个国家或地区现阶段经济社会发展水平及医疗卫生服务水平的综合指标,该指标也被纳入国家统计局制定的全面建成小康社会监测指标体系中。人均预期寿命是怎样算出来的？影响人的寿命有哪些因素？世界各国人均寿命的状况与趋势如何？人怎样看待寿命的长度与生命的质量呢？是本文试图回答的问题。     

也谈由一般平均数时间数列计算序时平均数——兼与“由一般平均数计算序时平均数的方法释疑”一文商榷

本文指出了由—般平均数时间数列计算序时平均数在教科书上存在错误和“由一般平均数计算序时平均数的方法释疑”一文中的不足之处提出了—般平均数时间数列的序时平均数可以按照相对数时间数列计算序时平均数的方法计算,也可以根据平均指标基本公式计算。     

企业寿命测度的理论和实践

 本文搜集国内外现有关于企业寿命研究的理论成果,并对其进行完整总结、梳理,使得这一项研究的发展演变过程脉络清晰可寻。并针对于如何延长企业寿命提出建议。     

Nonparametric Estimation of the Average Availability

The average availability of a repairable system is the expected proportion of time that the system is operating in the interval [0, t]. The present article discusses the nonparametric estimation of the average availability when (i) the data on ‘n’ complete cycles of system operation are available, (ii) the data are subject to right censorship, and (iii) the process is observed upto a specified time ‘T’. In each case, a nonparametric confidence interval for the average availability is also constructed. Simulations are conducted to assess the performance of the estimators.     

Bayesian Identification of Moving Average Models

This study approaches the Bayesian identification of moving average processes using an approximate likelihood function and a normal gamma prior density. The marginal posterior probability mass function of the model order is developed in a convenient form. Then one may investigate the posterior probabilities over the grid of the order and choose the order with the highest probability to solve the identification problem. A comprehensive simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed procedure and check its adequacy in handling the identification problem. In addition, the proposed Bayesian procedure is compared with some non Bayesian automatic techniques and another Bayesian technique. The numerical results support the adequacy of using the proposed procedure in solving the identification problem of moving average processes.     

Average rank correlation statistics in the presence of ties

The problem of n judges ranking r objects is considered in the situation where ties are permitted. Asymtotic distributions under the null hypothesis of complete randomness in the rankings are derived for the test statistics of average rank correlations between all pairs of ranking where the rank correlations are measured either by Spearman rho or Kendall tau. The relative efficeincies of these average rank correlatins are derived using approximate Bahadur slope and limiting pitman efficiency, and in both cases the Kendall statistic is shown to be more efficient. Some interpretatins of these and related results are also given.     

Quasi-likelihood Estimation of Non-invertible Moving Average Processes

Classical methods based on Gaussian likelihood or least-squares cannot identify non-invertible moving average processes, while recent non-Gaussian results are based on full likelihood consideration. Since the error distribution is rarely known a quasi-likelihood approach is desirable, but its consistency properties are yet unknown. In this paper we study the quasi-likelihood associated with the Laplacian model, a convenient non-Gaussian model that yields a modified L ₁ procedure. We show that consistency holds for all standard heavy tailed errors, but not for light tailed errors, showing that a quasi-likelihood procedure cannot be applied blindly to estimate non-invertible models. This is an interesting contrast to the standard results of the quasi-likelihood in regression models, where consistency usually holds much more generally. Similar results hold for estimation of non-causal non-invertible ARMA processes. Various simulation studies are presented to validate the theory and to show the effect of the error distribution, and an analysis of the US unemployment series is given as an illustration.     

均数情结与统计推断

首之语 应《中国统计》编辑部同志之约，写了这篇生活中的统计学小短文。说实话，当时未敢欣然许诺，唯恐写不好；后略消停，鼓足了勇气，勉强完成了此嘱托。实际上，自应约之后，一直惦记此事，因我从骨子里就喜欢这个栏目，也很想做点力所能及的事，我看过一些生活中的经济学的著作，感觉他们写得非常好，用经济学释俗了大量的中外社会现象和人类行为，读起来也朗朗上口，受益非浅。这或许是经济学用途广好写，抑或是因技不如人，还“未敢欣然许诺”至此才呈稿之因吧。可惜，目前统计学界此类书籍尚未补缺，如《中国统计》编辑部能组稿…     

Average run length comparison of multivariate control charts

In this paper we use Monte Carlo Simulation methodology to compare the effectiveness of five multivariate quality control methods, namely Hotelling T ², Multivariate Shewhart Char, Discriminant Analysis, Decomposition Method, and Multivariate Ridge Residual Chart-developed by Authors-, for controlling the mean vector in a multivariate process. P-dimensional multivariate normal data generated using different covariance structures. Various amount of shift in the mean vector is induced and the resulting Average Run Length (ARL) is computed. The effectiveness of each method with regard to ARL is discussed.     

Evaluations of some Exponentially Weighted Moving Average methods

The need for statistical surveillance has been noted in many different areas, and examples of applications include the detection of an increased incidence of a disease, the detection of an increased radiation level and the detection of a turning point in a leading index for a business cycle. In all cases, preventive actions are possible if the alarm is made early. Several versions of the EWMA (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) method for monitoring a process with the aim of detecting a shift in the mean are studied both for the one-sided and the two-sided case. The effects of using barriers for the one-sided alarm statistic are also studied. One important issue is the effect of different types of alarm limits. Different measures of evaluation, suitable in different types of applications, are considered such as the expected delay, the ARL¹, the probability of successful detection and the predictive value of an alarm, to give a broad picture of the features of the methods. Results from a large-scale simulation study are presented both for a fixed ARL0 and a fixed probability of a false alarm. It appears that important differences from an inferential point of view exist between the one- and two-sided versions of the methods. It is demonstrated that the method, usually considered as a convenient approximation, is to be preferred over the exact version in the overwhelming majority of applications.     

The Interpretation of R 2 in Autoregressive-Moving Average Time Series Models

It is demonstrated that factors needed to conduct tests and form confidence intervals for the ratio of two normal variances can be found using one of the new desk calculators which compute F probabilities.