THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE PROTESTANT REFORMATION: TESTING THE WEBER HYPOTHESIS IN THE GERMAN LANDS

Following Max Weber, many theories have hypothesized that Protestantism should have favored economic development. With its religious heterogeneity, the Holy Roman Empire presents an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis. Using population figures of 272 cities in the years 1300–1900, I find no effects of Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is precisely estimated, robust to the inclusion of various controls, and does not depend on data selection or small sample size. Denominational differences in fertility behavior and literacy are unlikely to be major confounding factors. Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development. Instrumental variables estimates, considering the potential endogeneity of religious choice, are similar to the OLS results.     

THE RETURN OF THE WAGE PHILLIPS CURVE

The standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage setting is shown to imply a simple dynamic relation between wage inflation and unemployment. Under some assumptions, that relation takes a form similar to that found in empirical wage equations—starting from Phillips’ (1958) original work—and may thus be viewed as providing some theoretical foundations to the latter. The structural wage equation derived here is shown to account reasonably well for the comovement of wage inflation and the unemployment rate in the US economy, even under the strong assumption of a constant natural rate of unemployment.     

QUANTIFYING THE PREMIUM EXTERNALITY OF THE UNINSURED

In insurance markets, the uninsured can generate a negative externality on the insured, leading insurance companies to charge higher premia. Using a novel panel data set and a staggered policy change that introduces exogenous variation in the rate of uninsured drivers at the county level in California, we find that uninsured drivers lead to higher insurance premia: a 1 percentage point increase in the rate of uninsured drivers raises premia by roughly 1%. We calculate the monetary fine on the uninsured that would fully internalize the externality and conclude that actual fines in most US states are inefficiently low.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS AND THE ADDITIVE VALUE FUNCTION*

The relationship between the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-criteria decision method based on the properties of the eigenvalues of positive reciprocal matrices, and the additive value function is studied. The AHP is compared with the standard method of building an additive value function. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed and a new method that uses elements of both is proposed. The proposed method relies on the AHP for building the unidimensional value functions and incorporates the systematic use of pairwise comparisons into the standard method of estimating the weights of the additive value function. Subject Area: Decision Processes.     

TOP INCOMES IN THE NETHERLANDS AND THE UNITED KINGDOM OVER THE 20TH CENTURY

A method is developed for using income‐tax data to investigate the evolution of the highest incomes over virtually the entire 20th century. The income shares of the top 10, 5, 1, 0.5, 0.1, and 0.05 percent are analysed for the UK and the Netherlands. For considering the top shares among themselves the “Pareto–Lorenz coefficient” is proposed. Between the two countries, the top shares appear to undergo a strikingly similar and strong decline up to the mid‐1970s. Since then British top shares have increased significantly while Dutch shares remained basically unchanged. This outcome parallels similar results for the US and France obtained by Piketty and Saez and poses interesting questions for research. (JEL: N34, D31, O15)     

THE COEFFICIENT OF CONCORDANCE AND THE Q-SORT TECHNIQUE

Under the assumption of random assignment of scores, Kendall's coefficient of concordance and its sampling distribution are applied to rectangular Q-sorts. F, normal, and chi square approximations and their limits of application are described.     

PLAYING THE BEER DISTRIBUTION GAME OVER THE INTERNET

This paper describes an Internet implementation of the Beer Distribution Game. Many teachers demonstrate the bullwhip effect that is often observed in supply chains by playing this game with their students. This implementation has the advantage of considerably reducing the time required to play the game.     

THE EURO AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF INTERNATIONAL DEBT FLOWS

Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments. We then analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro's introduction, core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery. Moreover, we present evidence that large core EMU banks' lending to periphery borrowers was linked to their borrowing from outside of the euro area.     

THE RISE OF THE EAST AND THE FAR EAST: GERMAN LABOR MARKETS AND TRADE INTEGRATION

We analyze the effects of the unprecedented rise in trade between Germany and “the East” (China and Eastern Europe) in the period 1988–2008 on German local labor markets. Using detailed administrative data, we exploit the cross‐regional variation in initial industry structures and use trade flows of other high‐income countries as instruments for regional import and export exposure. We find that the rise of the East in the world economy caused substantial job losses in German regions specialized in import‐competing industries, both in manufacturing and beyond. Regions specialized in export‐oriented industries, however, experienced even stronger employment gains and lower unemployment. In the aggregate, we estimate that this trade integration has caused some 442,000 additional jobs in the economy and contributed to retaining the manufacturing sector in Germany. This is almost exclusively driven by the rise of Eastern Europe, not by China. We also conduct an analysis at the individual worker level, and find that trade had a stabilizing overall effect on employment relationships.     

THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSION—A VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex‐ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.     

THE IMPACT OF THE INTRODUCTION OF THE U.K. MINIMUM WAGE ON THE EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES OF LOW‐WAGE WORKERS

This paper uses longitudinal data from three contrasting data sets (matched Labor Force Surveys, the British Household Panel Survey, and matched New Earnings Surveys) to estimate the impact of the introduction of the U.K. minimum wage (in April 1999) on the probability of subsequent employment among those whose wages would have needed to be raised to comply with the minimum. A difference‐in‐differences estimator is used, based on position in the wage distribution. No significant adverse employment effects are found for any of the four demographic groups considered (adult and youth, men and women) or in any of the three data sets used. (JEL: J38, J23)     

INCREASING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE DAY RELIEF TEXTILE MACHINE OPERATOR

No abstract available for this article.     

SOLUTION OF THE SHORTEST ROUTE PROBLEM USING THE ASSIGNMENT TECHNIQUE

A solution to the shortest route problem of going from city i to city j with p necessary intermediate stops (0 p n - 2) is given using the assignment algorithm, with a simple modification of the initial matrix. A branch and bound algorithm is necessary in all but the simplest case (p = 0).     

THE LOT OF THE UNEMPLOYED: A TIME USE PERSPECTIVE

This paper provides new evidence on the time use of employed and unemployed individuals in 14 countries. We devote particular attention to characterizing and modeling job search intensity, measured by the amount of time devoted to searching for a new job. Job search intensity varies considerably across countries, and is higher in countries that have higher wage dispersion. We also examine the relationship between unemployment benefits and job search.     

THE EFFECTIVE UNIT OF THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION AND DEMAND FORECASTING

This short paper deals with some of the difficulties which have been found in applying the effective unit concept of estimating the Poisson distribution in order to forecast demand in a major industry. It points to two special cases in which the common formulation produces misleading results, discusses the frequency with which these two special cases could be expected to occur based on this one major industry, and proposes some pragmatic solutions to the problems resulting.