DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH: A PERSPECTIVE FROM DEMOCRATIC EXPERIENCE

This article investigates the impact of democracy on growth by simultaneously considering a country's secular‐historical experience of democracy and current political regime. The results obtained show that the effect of democracy on growth exhibits an asymmetrical pattern depending on the country's democracy stock. Only in “democratic countries” with “prolonged experiences of democratic rule” can democracy promote growth. This claim stands in contrast to the earlier literature in which there is either no consistent relationship between growth and democracy or perhaps a nonlinear relationship. This conclusion provides circumstantial support for the claim of the “democracy promotes growth” hypothesis. (JEL O43)     

Nationalism and democracy in post‐communist Central Asia

The paper evaluates misconceptions of the so‐called transitologists in terms of the relationship between nationalism and democracy in the post‐Soviet Central Asian context. The analysis looks at only four of the five Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The paper puts forward two main arguments. First, contrary to the argument by some political scientists that nationalism is compatible with, and indeed is the same as, democracy, the author argues that there is a significant degree of trade‐off between nationalism and democracy. Second, contrary to the transitologists' assumptions that an incipient trend would enforce a regime change from communism to liberal democracy in all post‐communist cases, the author argues that it is indeed nationalism, not liberal democracy, that is the real successor to communism at least in Central Asian countries. The paper provides evidence indicating the pervasiveness of ethnic nationalism and the deficiencies of liberal democracy in post‐Soviet Central Asia.     

U.S. MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND THE DOLLAR

This paper examines the connection between U.S. military expenditure and the dollar-mark real exchange rate. Quarterly data for the period 1951.1–1986.3 are used to show that there exists a significant relationship linking real exchange rate, real military spending, and real GNP. The conclusion is based on evidence that these three variables are cointegrated.     

Growth,Inequality and Poverty in Emerging and Transition Economies

This paper aims to explore the quality of economic growth in a sample of 50 emerging and transition economies (ETEs), which are countries experiencing a process of fast growth and institutional change. Economic growth during 1995–2006 is regressed against poverty, inequality and human development variables using OLS cross-country regression models. The main findings are that growth did not reduce poverty and income inequality worsened too. On the one hand, economic growth occurred despite the worsening of income inequality. However, this result does not identify a “U-shaped” Kuznets curve because even after a consistent period of growth, inequality did not decrease and it remained at higher levels. Only countries with higher education levels and public expenditure in strategic dimensions seem to escape from this trap. On the other hand, growth occurred at the expense of an important human development variable i.e., life expectancy, and of an important indicator of democracy, i.e., voice and accountability.     

Healthy, educated and wealthy: A primer on the impact of public and private welfare expenditures on economic growth

In this paper, we provide first evidence of the impact of public and private expenditures in health and education on economic growth, via their influence on people's health, skills and knowledge. We consider a growth accounting framework in order to test whether countries that devote a larger amount of resources to the consumption of health and educational services experience higher growth rates. We also test whether the effects on economic growth of public expenditure in health and education differ from those of private expenditure. Our empirical analysis is based on a panel of 19 OECD countries observed between 1971 and 1998. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that health and education expenditure affects positively growth. The estimated impact is stronger for health than for education. More importantly, we find some evidence that public expenditure influences GDP growth more than private expenditure.     

SouthNorth Materials Flow: History and Environmental Repercussions

The current literature on the relationship between income and environmental quality is dominated by a notion of an inverted 'U'-shaped curve between both variables. However, a key variable is missing in this kind of study: the extra-territorial environmental effects of national economies. International trade of raw materials may be a good proxy to estimate these 'environmental load displacement' effects. The present work tries to elucidate some patterns in the relationship between economic growth in affluent countries and the quantity of non-renewable materials imported from less-developed countries. The results indicate that a general de-linking between economic growth and Southern resource consumption is not occurring in the industrialized world. Thus, developed countries may be increasingly displacing the environmental costs associated with material throughput to poorer regions of the world.     

Long-run effects of democracy on income inequality in Latin America

I address the link between democracy and inequality in Latin America, analyzing whether the degree of democracy that birth cohorts experience during the course of their formative years is related to labor income dispersion later, in adulthood. For this, I measure inequality at the cohort level by using pseudo-panel data built from household surveys for fifteen Latin American countries (from circa 1995 to circa 2011) and measure democracy as the discounted cumulative value of the degree of democracy during the cohort’s formative years. I find that cohorts that have higher discounted cumulative values of the degree of democracy show lower income inequality. However, the effect of democracy on income dispersion is driven by those cohorts that benefited from the surge of democracies that came to exist during the second half of the twentieth century. I also present suggestive evidence that education is one mechanism explaining these results.     

What are the likely interactions among innovation,government debt,and employment?

The study here analyzes the interactions among labor, R&D intensity, and public expenditure on education (indicators of innovation), considering public debt of countries. The study is based on 27 European countries over the 1995–2009 and applies multiple regression analysis. Main findings seem to be: a significant interaction of public expenditure on education and R&D intensity with employment rate, whereas an increase of general government consolidated gross debt has a negative interaction for employment rate as well as for technology indicators. The theoretical framework and empirical evidence suggest vital political economy implications to support employment rate during contractions of the business cycle. In particular, considering the specificity of the economic structure of countries, a fruitful lung-run political economy of growth should slowly dry out public debt by supporting GDP growth, rather than reducing government debt with high taxation and balanced-budget rules, in order to decrease frictional effects for patterns of economic, technological, and employment growth.     

FISCAL STRUCTURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

Our paper systematically examines the effects of fiscal structure on economic growth. We find that for developing countries, debt-financed increases in government expenditure retard growth and tax-financed increases stimulate growth, while for developed countries, debt-financed increases in government expenditure do not affect growth and tax-financed increases lower growth. We impose the government budget constraint on the regression equations so that the precise changes in fiscal policy can be identified (e.g., the effect of a debt-financed increase in health expenditure), employing a pooled cross-section, time-series sample and fixed- and random-effect methods. (JEL 04, E6)     

Obituary

Abstract

This article introduces the idea of social defence, which is nonviolent community resistance to aggression as an alternative to military defence. An outline is given of some connections between the grassroots orientation to social defence and strands within community development. A community research project on telecommunications is described to illustrate the possible connections that can be forged between social defence and community empowerment.     

Democracy and Growth: Evidence for Portugal (1960–2001)

This paper examines the causal relationship between democracy and economic growth in Portugal over the period 1960–2001 within a VAR model with four variables: output, physical and human capital, and an index of democracy. We apply Granger causality tests and impulse-response functions to analyze causality and check how unexpected changes influence growth. Our main findings point to a bi-directional causality between democracy and growth. The impulse-response analysis suggests that in the short run democracy has a negative effect on growth in Portugal, but in the long run this effect is positive. Furthermore, we find that democracy also causes economic growth by increasing educational attainment.     

WHEN IS TRADE PROTECTION GOOD FOR GROWTH?

The empirical relationship between trade protection and economic growth is surprisingly fragile, as shown in a number of other papers. We address one possible explanation for these findings: that the relationship is contingent on the pattern of comparative advantage, following the endogenous growth literature. Our findings suggest that such contingencies do in fact exist—in particular, the correlation between tariffs and growth is strong and positive for skill‐abundant countries—and are robust to the choice of control variables. (JEL F13, F43, O19, O24)     

Joblessness and Perceptions about the Effectiveness of Democracy

Using micro data on more than 130,000 individuals from 69 countries, we analyze the extent to which joblessness of the individuals and the prevailing unemployment rate in the country impact perceptions of the effectiveness of democracy. We find that personal joblessness experience translates into negative opinions about the effectiveness of democracy and it increases the desire for a rouge leader. Evidence from people who live in European countries suggests that being jobless for more than a year is the source of discontent. We also find that well-educated and wealthier individuals are less likely to indicate that democracies are ineffective, regardless of joblessness. People’s beliefs about the effectiveness of democracy as a system of governance are also shaped by the unemployment rate in countries with low levels of democracy. The results suggest that periods of high unemployment and joblessness could hinder the development of democracy or threaten its existence.     

欧盟与沙特阿拉伯王国的民主化进程

“9·11”后欧盟加大对沙特等海合会国家的关注力度，这对未来如何建立新型的西方与伊斯兰世界的关系有重要参考价值。欧盟推进沙特民主化进程的动机主要表现在四个方面：维护欧洲安全、促进沙特稳定、弘扬欧洲民主、抵消美国压力。欧盟主要从经贸领域着手，积极推进沙特更好地融入世界经济，此外，还辅以对其现行政治制度的宽容和对伊斯兰的理解与尊重。欧盟民主观建立在维护人权的基础上，其民主只是一种手段而非终极目标。在欧盟的间接影响下，沙特在地方选举、政府机构改革和发展、非暴力民间组织的诞生、妇女地位改善等方面有所推进。欧盟与沙特之间存在着良性互动。     

Health international non-governmental organizations,democracy, and tuberculosis mortality in developing nations: A longitudinal analysis

ABSTRACT

Using data from 1985 to 2005 for 74 developing nations, we conduct a longitudinal cross-national analysis examining the contentions of world polity theorists that health-related international non-governmental organizations (HINGOs) are effective at reducing tuberculosis mortality. We find support for this hypothesis in our models, yet we re-specify our models from a social movements perspective to examine any effects democracy may have on TB mortality. We do this by constructing an interaction term between HINGO concentration and level of democracy. As a result, we find that democracy moderates the effect of HINGOs on TB. Higher concentrations of HINGOs within developing nations are correlated with a larger beneficial effect on tuberculosis mortality in nations with high levels of democracy versus more repressive nations. This suggests that the effectiveness of HINGO programs in fighting TB mortality is contingent on the political opportunity structure within the countries where they operate.     

Advertising, Individual Consumption Levels, and the Natural Environment, 1900–2000

One central determinant of global environmental change is the continued expansion of personal consumption levels. In order to more fully understand the relationship between consumption and environmental degradation, the determinants of consumption must first be identified. Prior research in this area has focused on economic factors, primarily personal disposable income and population demographic characteristics. The role of cultural factors, including advertising, has been actively mentioned in theoretical analyses of the driving forces of individual consumption. However, this has not been empirically tested. In this article, we conduct an analysis of the impact of advertising on consumption levels in the United States. We start with a theoretical discussion of the literature on advertising and consumption. Based on this literature, we establish three hypotheses regarding the relationship between advertising expenditure and personal consumption. These hypotheses are then tested using time series analysis over the time period 1900–2000. The results show that advertising significantly impacts overall consumption and that these effects vary by type of consumption. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this analysis for further research into the driving forces of global environmental change.     

Economic Dependence,Overurbanization, and Economic Growth: A Study of Less Developed Countries*

Excessively large and rapidly growing urban populations characterize social structural change in less-developed countries. This is in contrast to the developmental patterns which accompanied structural transformation in the presently rich, industrialized countries of the world. Many less-developed countries are thus said to be “overurbanized.” In this paper, quantitative cross-national data are brought to bear on the hypothesis that overurbanization has been fue1ed by the economic dependence to which these countries are, to varying degrees, subject. The hypothesis that the degree of overurbanization and changes therein inhibit economic growth is also examined. But the overurbanization question is often framed as a matter of the relative distribution of the labor force into service and manufacturing occupations. We herefore examine parallel hypotheses which define overurbanization in terms of the urban labor distribution. Constraints on the availability of labor force data, however, relegate these findings to a subordinate role. Panel regression analysis provides support for the proposition that dependence upon foreign capital leads to overurbanization (defined as either the urban/development relationship or in terms of labor structure imbalance). Furthermore, relative increases in overnrbanization are consistently accompanied by relative declines in per capita economic growth, though the effects of higher levels of overurbanization do not appear to impede economic growth.     

法国在吉布提军事基地的绩效分析

海外军事基地是大国投射力量的"桥头堡"和干预地区事务的"前沿阵地"。本文以法国在吉布提的军事基地为案例,考察影响海外军事基地绩效的主要因素,认为法国在吉布提的军事基地持续一个半世纪,历经殖民时期、冷战时期与后冷战时期三个阶段,总体未受吉国内政治和地区格局变化的影响,其功能分别为"抗衡英国"、"力争成为美苏之外的‘第三支力量’"和"构建西方反恐、反海盗的平台"。吉布提在维护"危机弧"地区法国战略利益所发挥的支点作用、吉布提政府长期执行温和外交政策、其阿拉伯和非洲国家的双重身份以及其作为法国向阿拉伯—伊斯兰国家输出民主的"样板",成为法国在该国部署军事基地的主要原因;法国驻军所带来的财政收益和安全红利成为吉布提欢迎法国部署军事基地的主要原因。2011年中东剧变后,法国有望在多边框架下重返北非,从而将法国的土伦军事基地、北非的军事基地、吉布提军事基地和阿布扎比军事基地连为一体,确立在地中海—北非—红海—亚丁湾—海湾地区事务中的主导地位。     

Acceptance of democracy and public relations: Attitudes in a transitional country

The study explores the relationship between acceptance of democracy and opinions about public communication used by the private sector in television newscasts in Croatia, a country transitioning to democracy. A survey administered to students at a large University in Zagreb found inconsistent responses to the items that measured acceptance of democracy, indicating that young Croatians in the study may still be in a political “gray zone” and may not have a full understanding of the precepts of democracy. However, there was a positive correlation between opinions about public relations media practices and acceptance of democracy. The study suggests that it is not enough to use a theoretical framework of global public relations that characterizes a country as a democracy or not, but rather to recognize that democratization is a process. Many people in transitional societies may be closer on the continuum to traditional communist points of view than to newer democratic views; such understanding can help provide a theoretical understanding of transitional public relations.